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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I recommend using Fangraphs and selecting "NP" (non-pitchers) as the position for a better comparison. Although you have to export to a spreadsheet to do your own totals for multiple years.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Strikeouts are WAY up. Without a corresponding rise in BABIP, that's going to lower batting averages. (And BABIP is actually down this year too, curious about that.) I think it's fair to be concerned about the rise in strikeouts.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Any increment that selects 1968 is going to be problematic, as that's the all-time low.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't say Kepler is regressing, although I agree he's not getting better. His OPS+, wRC+, and WAR are virtually identical to what he produced in 2016-2017. He's thoroughly an average performer for the 3rd consecutive season, which is helping the MLB team a bit but not a lot. (The shape of his offense has changed a smidge this year -- walk rate up, K rate down, BABIP down -- but not enough to be particularly encouraging.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Morrison: 11% BB%, 20.5% K%, .153 ISO, .208 BABIP, 74 wRC+ Grossman: 10.9% BB%, 21.8% K%, .114 ISO, .288 BABIP, 81 wRC+ Grossman is only better (marginally) if you want to bet on those BABIPs. Morrison's is about .060 under his career average, and .087 under the league non-pitcher average this year. (Grossman's is also .028 under his career average, although only .007 under the league non-pitcher average this year.)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Number of the beast! Maybe we can make some kind of "Damn Yankees" type deal? (And not the Ted Nugent one.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. 24th in MLB in OBP -- and 26th for non-pitchers.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    If we had Ervin Santana, that pretty much would have bumped Romero, who's been passable. If you trust the ZiPS projection for Ervin, maybe a difference of 1.5 wins so far? Castro was replacement level before his injury. His replacements have been right around replacement level too. He was worth ~2 WAR last year, so maybe a win if you buy that as his true talent level? Hard to see too much tangible difference in intangibles yet either -- the pitching has improved overall, despite the absence of Ervin.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    No effect. To the extent that players have attributed effects to the home run derby, remember these are the same players who believe certain necklaces help their performance, that bunting against the shift is wrong, that umpires are holding back their performance relative to their peers, etc. There's nothing they won't use as an excuse or explanation for normal statistical variance. After the all-star break in 2017, Sano was largely the same hitter he was in May and June of that year. The outlier is pretty much April, and pretty much in the power department. As they found ways to neutralize his power, the walks receded too.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Belisle is proving his versatility -- just last Friday, he showed us he could let a 3 run deficit get out of hand, and today he showed how he could keep a 3 run deficit under control. And young pup Busenitz got to see one of his inherited runners allowed to score by his hero "Matty B", which I'm sure was a thrill!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton's -3 wRC+ was more than enough justification for a demotion. So was Sano's 81, 40% K rate, and negative defensive value. The Brewers famously demoted JJ Hardy in August 2009 to gain an extra year of control, just before he reached 5 years service time, and he had a 77 wRC+ for the season and positive defensive value at the time. (Of course, they traded him after the season so they didn't have to deal with him personally anymore either.) And it wouldn't be specifically to keep them under that service time threshold. Just some insurance that would provide us with some little benefit in case their minor league sojourn took longer than expected, or they got hurt while in the minors. Odds are, one or both would have been back by August regardless and rendered the earlier demotion moot.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe they should have optioned Buxton already? Using rehab to tweak his swing costs service time. Now he is only 18 days away from reaching 3 full years service time. Obviously they would much rather see him start hitting well, but absent that, they might as well have tried to get an extra year of control in case he gets hurt again or it doesn't click for awhile. Same for Sano, although he was 31 days ahead of Buxton in service time already -- but they could have optioned him a few days earlier and had some protection in case he too failed to adjust quickly or got injured in the minor leagues. Crazy to think we will only control these guys for 3 seasons beyond this one.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Stewart is repeating AA for a third year, and his improved K rate is still only league average (23%). Remember, this is a league where Luke Bard struck out 34% last year, and Nik Turley 52%. Strikeouts are a big part of the modern game, but that also means that strikeout numbers aren't necessarily indicative of special talent anymore.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    A list of Twins 40-man guys who are no longer prospects but are playing in the minors might be nice. Although I think they are always mentioned in the game recaps anyway -- I generally just read those and don't check the list at the bottom.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    No, but neither is Graterol -- his surgery was almost 3 years ago now. And I think 92 innings for a full season of a starting pitcher still falls well under the "real careful" umbrella.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know -- Molitor might be our best option at DH right now...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Should we be talking about a promotion for Graterol? I know they will want to limit his innings -- but maybe that makes it more important to move him up the ladder promptly. He's at 8 starts, 41.1 innings this year already. Last year, in his first full pro season, the Astros promoted 19 year old Forrest Whitley out of A ball after just 12 games (10 starts) and 46.1 innings. He actually got all the way to AA by season's end, and was still limited to 92.1 innings total for the season, and was a consensus top 10 prospect in MLB last offseason.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct, we got Pearson in exchange for some of our international bonus pool. I knew Pearson was a high school draftee just last summer, but worth noting he's a little old for that group. He turned 19 just before he was drafted, so he is already 20 now. By comparison, he's a full year older than fellow 2017 HS draftee Royce Lewis and 9-10 months older than Enlow.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco was the DH for Ft Myers on Sunday. I think the plan was to have him start at shortstop for Rochester on Tuesday.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Niko Goodrum chose to leave. We could have kept him with a 40-man roster spot, but it's worth noting that no one else guaranteed him a 40-man roster spot either, even Detroit. We brought in Petit because he was willing to come here without a 40-man spot. Then, once we needed him, we added Motter when he was available on waivers because he gave us a potential infield replacement for Petit if we needed to cut him (I believe Petit is out of options, contrary to Roster Resource), and also Motter has outfield experience too -- less need for Grossman/LaMarre? And while Motter has options, I have to imagine we will likely cut him once Polanco is back, assuming Buxton is back too. And while it's true that Gordon could have taken one of their roster spots, the way he's hitting at AAA (81 wRC+) suggests you'd need to burn an option on him as soon as Polanco comes back. I'd rather not burn an option on him at age 22 chasing a very unlikely performance, and instead keep his potential options available age 23-25. If Polanco and/or Dozier fail to perform in July, Gordon can still be called up for experience around the trade deadline with no need to burn an option this season. The only move in this sequence that doesn't make sense is the guy we added when we cut Petit (Belisle), but for reasons that have nothing to do with Petit.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you burst his bubble.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    They may not announce until Tuesday, or at least after the Rochester game today. I suspect Buxton, but it could be Cave if they don't think Buxton is ready to go yet.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it is that noteworthy. In addition to the exceptions of NYY and SEA, we also lost 2 of 3 to MIL. And as far as bad teams, we are 6-3 vs CHW and 2-1 vs BAL. Our records vs DET and LAA reflect their (and our) overall season records. Seems like a pretty normal distribution for a team with our overall record. Yeah, we are 6-3 vs CLE, but 3-1 vs STL and 2-1 vs BOS and HOU is not unusual for the tiny sample sizes and normal variation.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    No, Magill is out of options.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I think some people use "back of the pen" to describe the best relievers on a team. Here is a recent article on the Kelvin Herrera trade that does so: https://sports.yahoo.com/5-things-know-nationals-pitcher-021959562.html To me, it sounds more like the worst, so I just avoid the phrase entirely.
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