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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    We were slightly closer, and our playoff odds slightly better, at the time of his demotion. At the time, we were just a few days removed from being within 5 games of first place, with 25+% playoff odds (per Fangraphs "season to date stats" mode). Also, I'm not sure there wouldn't be benefit to stretching him through the end of the MLB season, if he is capable. If we shut him down before September again, I am sure we will hear about it next year as another reason to be cautious with him. Getting him accustomed to the longer MLB season might have as much verifiable benefit as keeping him on an innings limit, etc. Frankly I don't even care, I think they could have probably kept him on his regular MLB turn until it was time to shut him down.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That appears to be the case. 94, 98, and 95 pitches in 3 starts since his demotion. No extra rest so far either, basically on a regular 5 man rotation. (Should get some extra rest this week, with the AAA all-star break... although he would have gotten that next week too in MLB.) I am skeptical of this factor, but if they keep him down until at least July 27, he will finish the season with fewer than 120 days service time, which would suggest he misses super-2 arbitration status down the road. (And if Rochester sticks with the same 5 man rotation out of the AAA all-star break, Romero could be in line to start on July 27.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    All I can tell about that is from the game log: Byron Buxton doubles (4) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Damek Tomscha. (1-2 count, 1 called strike and 1 swinging) Byron Buxton lines out to third baseman Mitch Walding. (1-2 count again, 1 swinging strike and 1 foul) Byron Buxton singles on a soft line drive to left fielder Damek Tomscha. (first pitch) Byron Buxton grounds out softly, pitcher Tom Eshelman to first baseman Joey Meneses. (2-0 count) Byron Buxton singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Damek Tomscha. (1-2 count, 3 fouls) I have no idea whether I can trust minor league Gameday, but according to that, all of his swings were on pitches in the zone (a couple were on the edge).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Littell is relatively young, but I get the impression that he was an "early bloomer". Maybe it's the beard. Perfect Game had him listed at 6'4, 201 lbs back in his draft year of 2013, and he was still only 17. (That seems to be the source of his age advantage, that he basically graduated high school a year early.) In that sense, he reminds me a bit of Gonsalves. Gonsalves was 19 for his pro debut, but he's another big kid who reached AA for 13 starts in his age 21 season. (Of course, Gonsalves was then asked to repeat AA each of the following 2 seasons...) Also interesting is that Littell has been traded twice already, first by the Mariners for a reliever, next by the Yankees for 2 months of Jaime Garcia. So despite his size/age/stats, maybe he's still seen as a bit of an underdog, stuff-wise? And I posted this elsewhere, but maybe this isn't the right organization for Littell to get an opportunity. We tried to jump-start him with call-ups already, but looking at our roster, he may only be 8th or 9th on our SP depth chart for 2018-2019.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Encouraging, though worth noting that the starter for the other team has a pretty low K rate (15.8% or 6.6 K/9, versus league averages of 22.3% and 8.5), and 4 of Buxton's 5 PAs were against him.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    You mean, a future Bobby Wilson? Sure, why not. (Although at the same age, Wilson had a 104 wRC+ at AA, versus Navaretto's 73 this year.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    And Friday's game could do the same for Matt Belisle...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    And those big AAA reliever K rates already seem to translate pretty poorly to MLB, if the Twins system is any indication. Didn't mean to pick on you or Littell, just throwing a note of caution there, as folks often see that K rate and get overly impressed, as it would have been well above league average a few years ago.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that Littell's K/9 at AAA is actually slightly below league average (8.3).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't care for farewell tours, too much of a distraction. Just let him play like normal and make up his mind in the offseason. In any case, I'll give him an extra round of applause attending my last home game of the year.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Super small sample, but apparently Happ and Hamels had poor starts today, while Gibson was pretty good (albeit against Baltimore).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Cave K's a lot more than Kepler. Kepler should have the productivity advantage, if he can ever manage a league average BABIP.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The Orioles have probably raised the hopes of many teams this year...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    But those picks were self-selected to match the goal (staying under the pool). If one thinks the goal should have been different (spending the overage), then citing the actual picks/goal is non-responsive. It is a little troubling that we haven't done that yet, even under a new front office with two very different draft positions (last year with a huge pool, and this year with a smaller pool and two lost picks). Also, ordering is particularly irrelevant, particularly after 10 rounds.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    God Only Knows why Bobby Wilson is still on the roster. Wouldn't It Be Nice if we tried Astudillo at catcher?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    So the current Twins chemistry should be maintained? I'd rather they prioritize talent acquisition.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    No point in DFA'ing Motter until you have someone else who needs the 40-man spot to join the 25-man roster.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Only 2 XBH, for a .095 ISO. Did they tell him just to stop at first base on every hit?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    What kind of sample size is 23 inning pitched? Seems small. His overall rate with the Twins certainly hasn't improved meaningfully, across AA last year and AA/AAA/MLB this year. Also remember minor league K rates are rising just like their MLB counterparts. These kind of rates aren't all that impressive by themselves anymore.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Littell's K% has not generally improved, no.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I definitely agree about FV. But still it isn't hard to make a case that the upgrade from Ynoa to Littell wasn't worth $4 mil, especially to the 2017 Twins who were already looking at a glut of AAA starters and were just about to sign 2 more MLB SP too. (Note that at the time of the trade, Littell's AA dominance was for 7 starts, and Ynoa's rookie league scuffles had lasted 6 starts.) FWIW, Littell's walk rate and ground ball rate have both gotten worse since he came over to the Twins org. Not clear if that's Littell's true colors or the Twins vaunted player development machine at work.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Is that a mash-up of Flavor Flav and Adam Levine?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    In that case, maybe they have asked but the response wasn't noteworthy? I mean, if they ask about Belisle, and Molitor or whomever says he was great for us last year and we saw some weak spots in our pen and our depth early this season that he can help shore up -- is that noteworthy? I don't think you can do much with that, unless you are an opinion columnist. In which case, you don't really need the quote anyway.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    It's an interesting situation. What if you know you'll get a meaningless, boilerplate response -- do you still ask the question? Can the beat guys turn that into a piece, or is that more the domain of the columnists?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I think many overrated the quality difference between Ynoa and Littell. Fangraphs had them both at 40 FV, it is just that Littell was closer to the majors. But that also meant he required a 40 man spot almost immediately (as did Enns), while the Braves have at least until after the 2019 season to make that decision on Ynoa. Palacios was also a 40 FV prospect. That's pretty much equivalent to Ynoa and Littell territory. Obviously the Twins will have different evaluations, but of course those evaluations can be wrong too. Right now, still early, but it looks like we possibly lost the Littell move, given we paid $4 mil to get him and are stuck trying to evaluate him and break him into MLB at the same time as Romero, Gonsalves, Slegers, etc. Can Stewart re-join that group? Will it also cost us Felix Jorge? Etc. I don't think teams have a whole lot of reason to be forgiving of Lynn's poor start. First of all, teams were already wary of him, given his offseason market. Second, he hasn't been that great since then either -- still hasn't completed 7 innings in a start this year, and he's coming off consecutive suspect starts going into July. Hence why I think the rest of July is going to be important for him, just to see if anyone will bite at that 40 FV prospect level, and/or take on his remaining salary.
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