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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I have been citing the "coin flip" playoff odds published at Fangraphs, which are based on each game being a coin flip. So given our deficit, plus the number of games and teams left in the race, that gave the Twins a 12.5% chance of winning the division. Nowhere did I mean the Twins had a 50/50 chance of winning the division. Hope that clears things up.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, there are degrees of acting like a contender. Personally, I wasn't advocating buying at this point, unless perhaps there was a real bargain to be had upgrading a weak spot like Morrison. Mostly just the lowest form of "acting like a contender": making some internal moves (Polanco and Ervin?) and keeping the roster together.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It's tricky for Twins fans, because they do remember 2017, 2009, and 2003. All 3 of those years, the Twins made the postseason after failing win more than they lost through 100 games. So it seems a bit more complicated than that.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, we were only 5 games under when we traded Escobar. I think the further back we are, the easier it becomes, which is why it hurt a bit to do it at that exact point, after we had gained since Polanco's return. I wonder what players Arizona and Houston were ready to move on to, because it would have been nice to take it up to the actual deadline, finishing the Boston challenge and getting one crack at Cleveland. Although if the FO was going to sell anyway, it may have hurt then even more.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Cardinals aren't really selling, at least not like the Twins. They traded away one reliever (with a below league average K rate) in one deal, and acquired a MLB reliever (and another MLB-ready one) in another trade. They also DFA'd two veteran relievers and promoted a couple top pitching prospects. Seems to be a reload/reorganization. San Fran and Pittsburgh haven't sold yet either, and have been rumored to be buyers. The Twins were pretty much the closest contenders to really sell, so far.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I asked you this before and didn't get an answer: what are the odds that the specific 5 players we acquired contribute meaningfully to a "great" Twins team in the future? I would guess those odds are not much different than the 9.1% chance of winning the division that Fangraphs' "season to date" projection mode gave us before the Escobar trade. (To say nothing of our destiny control.) To turn your phrase around: it seems many of you are dramatically overrating the success rate of mid-tier prospects, and the precision with which teams can use them to build to future greatness.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Not remotely? The spread of winning percentages in baseball isn't that great, most games are coin flips. At the time of the Escobar trade, our winning percentage was .475 and Fangraphs projected us to be .518 for the rest of the season. As you reduce the games and teams remaining, coin flip odds become more useful, as they can show how much of our destiny we control. It wasn't a lot, but was comparable to Pittsburgh, San Fran, and St. Louis, none of whom have sold yet like the Twins (St Louis has made trades, but more reorganizing/reloading).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It is the same all over the league. The best guys have pretty much all been dealt, and buyers can afford to wait it out with the remains until the deadline or into August.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Was .500 the required threshold? We were 13-8 and gained 2 games on Cleveland since Polanco came back (and that's not too cherry-picked, since we lost the first 3 games of that sample and fell 3 games further back, before making up 5). If the front office required us to go 18-3 over that stretch to avoid selling... well, maybe we should have started selling sooner. (I guess many here will agree with that statement anyway but a lot us did want to see how the team responded once Polanco came back in the weeks leading up to the deadline, and the response from the team so far had been good. Erv too. Not perfect, but arguably enough to stave off selling.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    And I don't like to wade too much into the waters of "how will current and future players react?", but when we start talking about blaming the players for the deadline sale, it is sort of a natural corollary. Two seasons in a row of that, and it might start leaving a mark...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Morrison has been pretty unlucky by expected wOBA. (Mauer too, apparently.) And Lynn has been fairly cromulent since his late start. Reed was hurt. But let's complete the "et al". Polanco got himself suspended, but he's back. Grossman scuffled, but has come on strong, nearing his preseason projections. Dozier has scuffled too, but is at least playing around an average WAR level. Kepler too (and maybe he's a little BABIP unlucky?). Castro got hurt, and Garver scuffled but has been coming on strong. Erv was hurt, but now he's back. The big ones are Sano and Buxton. Sano... he finished 2017 poorly so I can't say this is entirely unexpected. Thankfully we had Escobar. Buxton was bad, then hurt (and bad), but the front office's solution for 3 months was LaMarre and more Grossman. They just turned to Cave before we started improving in July (not that I necessarily expect him to keep performing). I don't know. What you are trying to say is just a clear reason for the front office to sell, actually looks to me like the we had some hope going forward, and/or the front office is partly to blame for their poor response (or lack thereof).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Is it good GM'ing to mostly sit on your hands for 4 months, then take Escobar and Pressly away because of a few underperforming players? Just when your team, overall, is showing some signs of life in July, in advance of a big opportunity to face Cleveland head to head? St Louis had similar "coin flip" playoff odds as we did (they were a little closer to a spot, but were competing with more teams), suggesting similar destiny control going forward. They actually DFA'd a couple veteran underperformers and called up some prospects last week. The Nationals had a bad start, and tried to shore up with a major trade acquisition way back in June. What has our FO done? I guess they dropped Hughes early in the season, although that move was a long time coming. They signed Belisle for mop-up work in June. They curiously demoted Romero and then Mejia after Odorizzi and Lynn had bad starts, respectively. Yes, some players have underperformed. But I am not really comforted by how the front office has dealt with that either.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    That would seem to be a decided minority of players, no? And a few of those point directly back to the front office anyway.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    And somewhat arbitrary small sample, but the team was 13-8 since Polanco returned from his suspension up until the front office decided to start selling. Made up 2 games on Cleveland in that time, without the benefit of any head-to-head matchups. (Pretty good considering they lost Polanco's 3 games back -- since that point, they had made up 5 games on Cleveland.) Now, Polanco was no superstar that was expected to carry the team, but his absence was a bit of an external factor out of the other players control. And his return was a welcome positive development after a few negative ones. Ervin's return too. And maybe just by bad luck of timing, the team never really got a chance to fully redeem themselves after their returns.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the problem with the "blame the players" reasoning is that the players aren't a monolith. Sure, you can blame Morrison, you can blame Dozier, you can blame Sano -- but would you blame Escobar? Rosario? Berrios? Gibson? I've got a lot of sympathy for those guys.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    So Morris's Hall of Fame induction ceremony was today (Sunday). Why did Molitor have to miss Saturday's game too? For that matter, why did he have to miss any? They played against each other in Legion ball as teenagers, and with each other during Morris's dreadful penultimate season of 1993. Not really seeing the personal connection worth missing two games as manager right before the trade deadline, and during a potential pennant race. (And before anyone cracks wise about the Twins current place in the standings, it was apparently announced some time ago that Molitor would miss these games.) Was it just for a photo op? Boston is only an hour away from Cooperstown by plane, they could have done that Saturday and gotten Molitor back in plenty of time for the 7 PM EST game. If he wants to talk at the ceremony on Sunday, he could Skype. I actually think more managers/coaches/players should probably miss games for certain family activities, but this struck me as unnecessary. Edit to add: But maybe I'm just in a bad mood about the 2018 season...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I know long relief stats are suspect, but: When this start was still "to be determined", I thought they might use Mejia so they could use Berrios against Cleveland tomorrow. Maybe they should have... (It did seem weird to give Berrios so much rest before his first start coming out of the break, then carry 6 starters but not give him an extra day before his second start.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Not necessarily. We still have a pretty big hole at DH that Sano could have filled, if he was ready. We may have wanted 3B reps for Sano to get ready for 2019 too -- but in that case, we could use Escobar at DH if he was still hitting. Or slide him over to 2B/SS if those players are scuffling. (And not to put the cart before the horse, but Polanco would have been ineligible for the postseason too, so Escobar getting regular SS reps could have been helpful.) I generally agree with you though -- I don't really mind the trades in isolation, I would probably like the returns, but they still feel a little depressing in context and they've definitely tempered my interest/enthusiasm for the club right now. Almost wish we had been another ~5 games back, or had a club between us and Cleveland in the standings.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Is this a little weird to anyone else? I mean, I absolutely support these guys taking off for family things, but this is a professional thing and it feels like a weak one. They were teammates for 1 season, and though their team won the World Series, Morris was awful that year and didn't even play in the postseason. I guess they faced each other as amateurs in St Paul, a year apart in school? Their post-playing careers don't seem to have much overlap either. Couldn't Molitor Skype it in on a game day? The ceremony was presumably early and the game was late. I guess it is only a 4 hour drive from Cooperstown to Boston too.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. I was coming from the premise that Dozier might be determined to hit the open market, maybe strengthened by his disapproval of yesterday's trade? As I noted, the risk would be him changing his mind, and that would be influenced by his finish.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Twins think Dozier is going to test the market no matter what, we could make him a qualifying offer without too much risk. Then we either get a draft pick if/when he signs elsewhere, or we get an advantage in negotiations to bring him back for 2019 (by virtue of being the only club that wouldn't have to forfeit a pick to sign him). Obviously him changing his mind and taking the QO would be a risk too.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Berardino's source is correct, Alcala won't be Rule 5 eligible until next year. From the Cub Reporter: https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3517 So while Alcala signed at age 19, he was only 18 on the preceding June 5th (his birthday is July 28 -- happy birthday, by the way!). And he signed after the conclusion on the 2014 season, so 2015 was his first qualifying season and this 2019 will be his 5th Rule 5 draft.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    No, it would be more like a third rounder under the new system. Like #75-80.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Speaking of Rule 5, I wonder if Alcala would have been available in Rule 5 this winter if he had stayed with Houston. Obviously there is advantage to acquiring him without Rule 5 restrictions, but I am just wondering how that contributed to Houston making him available. (I theorized the same last year about Littell and Moya.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Was there angst over selecting Pressly in Rule 5? We weren't competing at the time, and Pressly always seemed like a good candidate for a pen conversion.
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