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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. That's an interesting point. I was just thinking, the front office really didn't decide to pull the plug on the season last week. The plug was pulled then, but the decision was almost certainly made by the end of the late June / early July losing streaks, barring anything crazy like a 15 game win streak (or losing streak by Cleveland). Which is fair. But then I thought, what if the decision was made earlier than that? We signed Belisle on June 12th. We didn't use him in any kind of leverage spot until we were already negotiating to deal Escobar and Pressly. There was no competitive purpose to adding Belisle to the MLB roster at that time. Maybe we were just done competing, and moving on to other goals? Dropping Sano to single-A a few days later seems like further evidence (although I didn't mind that move so much). If so, I feel like giving up then was a bit too early. It had been a disappointing season up until that point, but we were only ~5 games out of the division with almost a hundred games to play. Our playoff odds at Fangraphs still ranged from 9-23% that day. We could have shook things up at that point by dropping a vet or two, trying something new, but instead we let them all play out the string up to the deadline. And by adding the retread Belisle, we simultaneously blocked potential pitching reinforcements from getting extended looks in that low-leverage position. We even maintained LaMarre as our primary starting center fielder over Cave until we were 8 games out, for some reason. To those that like the deadline trades -- what do you think of that? Should the front office have acted sooner? Not necessarily big buying (although KC made a couple guys available affordably in June), but anything to shake up the veteran malaise. I can understand the case for selling or not selling last week -- but I'm having a hard time justifying doing nothing (or worse than nothing, Belisle) for as long as we did leading up to that point.
  2. I get the sentiment, but this reads more like you welcome the freedom to stop watching, which is pretty much what Vanimal said. Not that you actually want to watch now. I mean, Erv and Mejia weren't part of the problem of vets laying down, and they both just came back a week ago with a theoretical chance to help make the race interesting. The most interesting addition since then (Sano) came at the expense of most beloved vet to get the boot (Escobar). And we also added Forsythe. By your own admission, plenty of the veteran stink is still around -- for example, Belisle still came into a key spot last night, in what might be our last glimpse of a "must win" game this season. Even if you fully endorse the trades so far, it's hard to see interest in watching the team as it stands today. Following, yes, but not watching. Hopefully more moves come soon, because they need them.
  3. They won't! That's the beauty of it. September will be our own pretend "postseason" and we'll leverage the heck out of it and win it all! (For pretend.)
  4. 100% here think that "they should have gotten so much more for an asset like Dozier"? If you believe that, I just wish you were in charge of estimating the Twins playoffs odds too!
  5. Yeah, and the Twins won it all as recently as the Bush years!* * Okay, the earlier Bush years.** ** Not the current "Billy Bush" years either, no.
  6. I can't believe no one has noticed the obvious until now: Cleveland set us up! They knew since last offseason that we were going to be the closest thing to a competitor for their division crown, and they also knew we loved us some Matty B -- but they also realized that with a fresh offseason, we were trying to quit him and Belisle's career was thus in jeopardy. So, Cleveland signed Belisle to a minor league contract, and after a poor spring put him on the roster anyway as a mop-up guy, just to keep his career alive. After another poor month in low leverage in April, Cleveland dangled him to the Twins on waivers and free agency in early to mid May, but no bite. So they re-signed him to yet another minor league deal, and dangled him again in June -- and this time it worked! The Twins signed Belisle to their major league roster, and Cleveland knew that he was there to stay, and we would foolishly trust him in a close game against them later this season. That moment came last night. I hope the league punishes Cleveland for this cruel behavior. Preferably by forcing them to roster Belisle for the remainder of the 2018 season and postseason, while also restoring native son Brad Hand to his proper place on the Twins roster. It's the only just resolution.
  7. Dozier in AA had a 145 wRC+, a well below average K rate, an acceptable walk rate, and played middle infield. If we were acquiring Dozier circa July 31, 2011, I would be much more approving of the trade. I wouldn't say keeping Dozier was worth "nothing". I think we at least nominally care about winning games the next two months.
  8. Doesn't really matter. Dodger 2B production was fine last year, near the top of MLB, as they had the best regular season record. Then Forsythe had a good postseason at the plate as they reached game 7 of the World Series. There is no evidence to suggest they would have been better off with Dozier, so thereof there is no reason they should have offered more to get him.
  9. No. It was, and remains, a good non-trade for both sides.
  10. That's not fair at all. I think this return is an accurate representation of Dozier's current value -- but that doesn't mean I endorse trading him for that return.
  11. Perhaps, but that wasn't a good return to begin with. It could be "better" but still be bad.
  12. Destroyed high-A? It was a 129 wRC+. Preceded by a 104 wRC+ in A, and now a 119 wRC+ in AA. He was a college draftee, who cares what he did in 44 PA of rookie ball. Looking at his stat lines, I am not detecting power as a standout skill, or contact, or plate discipline...
  13. Solid for AA performance, but not much for projecting a MLB future. Below average BB%, above average K%. 119 wRC+ per Fangraphs, and he's almost 24 in AA (admittedly a college draftee).
  14. "Back in my day, ballplayers weren't pre-Madonna's -- they were pre-Cher's!"
  15. Kinsler is having the better season now (particularly with defensive metrics), and he only fetched 2 AAA relievers. And the Angels ate some salary too. I agree, the Twins might as well hold on to Dozier now.
  16. Well, Pressly could sign somewhere as a free agent, and then get traded later too...
  17. Ventura was wrapping up his 4th full MLB season when he charged Nolan Ryan. At the time, Ventura was about to win his 3rd Gold Glove (although obviously not a boxing glove ). He was even an all-star the previous year. Not quite a rookie anymore. (Unless there is another Ventura mound-charging incident to which you are referring.) I guess relative to Nolan Ryan, though, everyone was a rookie.
  18. I mentioned on the other thread, but Austin is out of options next spring.
  19. Nah, leave it for future generations to figure out!
  20. FWIW, Fowler was ranked on BA's midseason top 100 just before the trade, and maybe MLB.com's too? And then on the following offseason BA and BP top 100 lists. Not that it changes your point. A top 30 for Gibson would be nuts, likewise two top 100s.
  21. Rochester was completing a suspended game from June 24, when Cave was still there. He didn't get sent down, but he is still in the final box score.
  22. I see Costello has played mostly first base this year. I'd guess he wasn't much of a third baseman?
  23. How do you suppose the $75k in the Duke deal came up? Seems like a weird, small number, relative to the total salary.
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