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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    It's also possible no changes are made. Boston could have seen issues in the medicals and wanted more time to review them with their doctors, coaches, etc. who will be charting Graterol's course in their organization. It's certainly possible they could have wanted an additional prospect thrown in, but it feels like that talk has been more speculation caused by the delay than actual confirmation.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    And keep in mind: if Boston asks us for Raley or Jax, in addition to Graterol, there's nothing stopping the Twins from asking the Dodgers for something additional too to offset that, likely one of their top 30 prospects.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if that report is true, I'd guess "top prospect" is being used more like "top 30 org prospect" than anything close to Graterol level.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Starter vs reliever would also depend on what exactly they found in his shoulder exams last year and how his shoulder responded to treatment. If his shoulder hasn't responded well enough to stretch out for longer outings, that kind of puts the kibosh on any plans to ease him back into starting in the near future.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes for Severino. He filed at $5.25 mil, and the Yankees at $4.4 mil, before they settled on an extension last February. And Severino had less service time then (as a "super 2"), compared to Berrios now. No to Nola (he signed his extension before arb figures were exchanged), but if there was enough public evidence at that time for MLBTR to give him an estimate of $6.6 mil, then I'd guess there would also be enough for future pitchers to look for $4.3 instead of $4.1 or whatever, regardless of Berrios.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the degree to which it helps any future pitchers is getting overstated. At best, Berrios winning maybe would have made it easier for next year's Mike Clevinger to settle for $4.3 mil instead of $4.1. But frankly, if the Yankees already filed at $4.4 mil for Severino last winter, to say nothing of Nola and others, I'm not sure that future pitcher would have needed the Berrios precedent to do that anyway.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the report I believe you are referring to: Seems kind of second-hand, so I'd take it with a grain of salt at this point.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That "record" is so weird, though. Nola had the same service time last winter and MLBTR projected him at $6.6 mil, and he signed an extension which essentially paid him $6 mil for 2019 ($4 mil salary, $2 mil signing bonus). Severino had *less* service time last winter (super-2) and MLBTR projected him at $5.1 mil. He actually got to the point of filing for arbitration, and would have received no less than $4.4 mil, but settled on an extension instead that again paid him $6 mil in 2019 ($4 mil salary, $2 mil bonus). And that's just the two most recent examples, off the top of my head. Does the $375k gap over Berrios really matter to anyone? I think your dog-and-pony show comment was correct!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, that was before Sano basically had a lost season in 2018, and missed more time and ultimately played his way off third base in 2019. I'm sure Berrios would re-calibrate his contract expectations if he suffers a similar fate, but we probably wouldn't want that outcome from a performance standpoint!
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it's important not to look at this as a binary situation, like he was 100% destined to be a reliever and the Red Sox should have already known that. Yes, the Twins had said they were going to use Graterol in relief this spring, and we all know his general history. But their stated concerns about his workload and his throwing motion are not that unusual for young pitchers. If that was primarily what was expressed and understood during negotiations with the Red Sox, perhaps they gave him, say, a 30% chance of increasing his workload toward starting again in the foreseeable future. But after seeing the medicals -- what exactly was found in Graterol's shoulder impingement exam last year, and perhaps more importantly, what treatments the Twins pursued and how Graterol's shoulder responded -- maybe the Red Sox saw a notably reduced chance to increase his workload in the foreseeable future (maybe 10%?). Enough to at least pause the trade process while they consider their options. (If the situation was reversed, I think we'd all want our Twins to do the same.) So it doesn't necessarily take any failures or bad actors to lead to where we are now.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The innings thing is likely an over-simplification of Boston’s specific concerns about his medicals. There could be something in the medicals that tells Boston there is no path to Graterol *ever* throwing 150 IP in a season (meaning, never going back to starting again).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    The author admits in the article that he simply directed ZiPS to consider him a reliever in 2020, and a starter thereafter. That may be how things play out, but ZiPS isn’t acting as independent confirmation of that opinion — ZiPS is being directed by that opinion.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It’s based on the playing time the projection author somewhat arbitrarily assigned. It isn’t reinforcing anything we are saying about their prospective values, just repeating it.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it matters how it was reported. If nothing is official, any team can back out (and the Dodgers-Twins agreement could have been contingent on the Dodgers-Red Sox agreement, and vice-versa, if they're not actually considered part of a single, 3-way trade with the league office).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think there's a contract to breach until it's official. And neither trade was announced as official.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, the Twins can pull him back. And he could contribute to us and rebuild value. But he probably can't be a major trade chip to help bring in an ace at the deadline, that's all I was saying. I didn't say Boston and LA don't still have motivation to make this deal. That's mutually exclusive from the effect it can have on Graterol's trade value. Of course, Boston and LA can still complete this deal without the Twins and Graterol, if they need to. He's a good piece, but he's mostly secondary to the deal. And from the analysis here at TD, it sounds like the Twins might still be pretty motivated to land Maeda, and not see him land elsewhere.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. I mean, if he's a lights out reliever, and healthy for all of 2020 and into 2021, then yeah, this is a footnote. I'm guessing he won't be an elite reliever quite so suddenly, though.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. Obviously he could restore that value in the future, but it would be hard to address the concern about handling a starting workload in the immediate future.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not going to speculate on the FO effects quite yet, but none of this is mutually exclusive from what I said, that Graterol's trade value, as a player, would be diminished if the Twins have to pull him back here.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams don't hand over medicals on their players just because another team expresses interest. They need to know the other team is serious before handing over that valuable private information, and they do this by unofficially "agreeing in principle" to the trade first, pending medical review. Note that no official trade agreement was ever announced here.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It's my impression that teams don't actually review any medicals before agreeing in principle on a trade. So it's not really a failure of the Red Sox, or withholding from the Twins. Unless we think the Twins had to share any pessimism they may have felt about Graterol's future as a starter during negotiations. I don't think they have any responsibility to do that; but I think it's entirely possible the Red Sox developed a similar pessimism once they got access to the medicals.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    LA and Boston can still likely make the trade without us. LA can include one of their own prospects and/or take on more cash (and/or trade Maeda to another team for an additional prospect -- surely the Twins aren't the only team that would be interested in Maeda on this contract).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    "Cat"? I like the beatnik take on the trade!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    But a huge cash outlay. The Dodgers are still on the hook for $27 mil for Betts this year, and $16 mil a year for Price. You would have had to forgo the win-now move of signing Donaldson, at least, and still wound up with a higher payroll than where we currently sit.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I get being suspicious of motives, etc. -- but doesn't this theory go way beyond that? You're also assuming Bloom and the Red Sox are pretty naive (to put it charitably), to publicly complete 95% of a long-discussed blockbuster trade of one of the best players in franchise history PLUS ~$50 mil cash, without realizing the trade would hurt a bit and generate negative PR.
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