Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,662

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Meh, the fans are aware of such things. They can give him some extra applause just in case. I think Hunter didn't officially retire before the end of 2015 either. I could imagine it might be a bit of a distraction for him -- and maybe he doesn't want to make up his mind until October.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you would need to show some context to give this illustration meaning. Seeing it for a single player isn't surprising -- virtually all players are underpaid in their early years; those few whose careers survive long enough probably get overpaid later in their careers. I have no idea how Mauer's value/salary ranks among his peers. I suspect it's not that bad, even post-30, but I can't tell just from Mauer's numbers alone.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    And his time travel skills are incredible!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas might make that much if he is successful over there, but his initial contract would be for much less. Probably no more than $1 mil given his poor 2018 season and positional inflexibility, and I think foreign players are generally limited to 1 year contracts too, especially at first. Of course, he's not likely to get a MLB roster spot this offseason, so he can't even count on the league minimum over here anymore. So $1 million would look pretty good. (If he could somehow get the minimum somewhere, it might be better than $1 mil overseas because of increased pension benefits.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Ever hear of regression to the mean? 2016 was so bad, it was very likely to improve regardless of who was in charge. And of course, whatever improvement there has been consists largely of players they inherited too. Again, not saying they've failed or anything, but they haven't moved the needle much in the MLB pen yet. I'm open to discuss it if you want, but I'd rather not suffer any more of these "zingers" please.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll help him out. By ERA-, this is the Twins third-worst pen performance of the Gardy/Molitor era, behind only 2011 and 2016: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2002&ind=1&team=8,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=14,d
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Good bullpen moves don't necessarily cost much in assets. Brandon Morrow in 2017, Blake Parker, Kirby Yates. I wouldn't even be upset if we tried a few of those types and failed -- we just haven't even been attempting them much -- in some ways, Drake is the first, and maybe quite late. I would have preferred seeing some different arms earlier in the Haley, Kinley, Breslow, and 2018 Belisle spots -- felt like too much low upside wheel spinning. Again, not that this makes the new FO a failure -- but it doesn't really make them successful yet either.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, I don't really care much about the loss of Rosario. But I'm not sure "best in 10 years by one measure" means that much either. Especially when the best relievers by that measure were inherited from the previous front office, and the very best one was already traded. For long term pieces, they've added Moya, Magill, and now Drake, with Kinley and Haley in the rear view mirror. For shorter term pieces, they've added Rodney, Duke, Reed, Belisle (twice), Breslow. I won't argue that they are failures or anythint, but I think it's fair to question whether they've moved the needle yet in the MLB bullpen.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Any particular post or poster you are responding to here?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    With the size of modern bullpens, I think there are readily available innings at the start of most seasons too. But in any case, Breslow (*young* Breslow ) was a midseason pickup in 2008 (and regretfully a midseason loss in 2009). I guess Neil Ramirez was a midseason attempt in 2016. I endorse the Drake move, but it doesn't strike me as anything special quite yet. Would have been more encouraged if they had picked him up in late May or mid June instead of Belisle. Or maybe way back in April 2017, when the Brewers got Drake from the Orioles for cash as we kept trotting out Breslow (Old Breslow ).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier never really struck out too much -- he always had reasonable K rates, even when he was struggling as a rookie, before his power surge. Rosario definitely improved in that department, although he was starting from a lower point -- his 25% K rate in his first 2 years looks like a contact hitter compared to a lot of recent Twins! (Including Cave's 31%) And Rosario's K rates in the minors were good too, while Cave's have trended higher. That said, I like Cave and the trade, even though I am a bit skeptical of his value going forward. (I had completely forgotten who Luis Gil was until this thread!)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Young Twins players improving a problematic K rate hasn't always been "standard", unfortunately! And while the power has been nice, going forward it might mean it has nowhere to go but down. Hard to look for his power to improve to neutralize other factors either (which is a more common development pattern). The post I was responding to mentioned the possibility of Cave starting in 2019, and I'm not too comfortable with that at the moment, that's all. I like him as a 4th OF with options, and a fill-in starter when necessary -- if anything, I would have liked to see him much earlier this year when Buxton first went down, rather than starting LaMarre/Grossman. Not sure yet about counting on Cave/Buxton to hold down a starting spot next year...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Doesn't Drake fit in the mold of Casey Fien? Or Jared Burton, or even Caleb Thielbar? Is this really an achievement specific to the new front office?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, didn't mean to sound like I was sulking. I was questioning the rarity of players fitting Drake's profile. Another one could be Tonkin over 2016-2017, at least in terms of K rate in AAA/MLB. His swinging strike rate was comparable in 2017 too. A few of these guys turn out interesting, like Kirby Yates or Blake Parker. (The Twins new FO passed on both of those guys last year too.) That's more of the challenge, actually getting something out of these types. Bullpen seems like the easiest / quickest way to put your stamp on the MLB roster, and the new FO has performed pretty marginally in that regard so far.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Same range as JT Chargois too...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Before we pat the Twins on the back too much for claiming Drake in August, keep in mind we passed on claiming him at least twice, May 31st and June 19th, when our our season's fate was not yet determined, and we signed Matt Belisle instead.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    No hate here, but skepticism is warranted. I hope we're not betting on a .371 BABIP again...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier is a tricky comp. He indeed wasn't valuable as a rookie, but his K rate was pretty manageable, and he managed to add power on top of that without the K rate rising much either. Cave's challenge will be that he already has a very high K rate, 31.1%. He's shown Dozier-like power so far (.207 ISO) but he's needed a .371 BABIP just to get to a 107 wRC+. Twins fans are very aware of the struggle to maintain effectiveness with high K rates and high BABIP.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    20.25, but only because he got so few outs. His K% is only 23.1%, which is right around league average. This is actually a nice illustration of how K/9 can get distorted for pitchers.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't most front offices add a few of these types most years? I mean, they still might be interesting guys to analyze, but I hesitate about giving too much credit to the FO for acquiring them yet. It's kind of like the offseason last year -- acquiring Odorizzi and the free agents we signed was considered solid by most, but honestly felt more like a minimum acceptable standard given our needs and resources -- had we done less than that, I think it would have felt like a disappointment. Likewise, us failing to acquire a few complementary pieces in 2018 on the current level of Cave, Austin, and Drake would probably have been bad, considering the alternatives. (Imagine if Vargas was back in Minnesota, or Boshers, or Belisle -- wait, scratch that last one ).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Depends on the source. MLB indeed ranks Gil 21st for NYY with a 45 Future Value, but Fangraphs has him 38th with a 35 FV.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm pretty sure even the baseball gods aren't watching these Twins-Tigers tilts anymore.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Matt Belisle's response:
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Is Belisle actually on a rehab assignment yet? I haven't seen that. I am guessing if he returns, it will be after Sep. 1st and at least won't have any 25 man roster implications.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
×
×
  • Create New...