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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it is done far less often than trading an expiring contract. Although some of that is rare circumstance, it seems true that service time is rarely a consideration beyond a player's initial call-up. You may not care, but it does feel like not calling him back up for September would violate the norms of the sport a bit. Also, one of the prerequisites of doing this is that the player has to have struggled quite a bit, which diminishes the projected value of that future season too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope -- Wilson didn't play in the Tampa organization until 2015-2016, when Maddon was already in Chicago. They did overlap a little in the Angels organization, when Maddon was the MLB bench coach and Wilson was still in the low minors, but that was way back in 2003-2005.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It's tricky. I don't necessarily mind some mild service time manipulation, but I don't like the idea of passing up an opportunity to face high level pitching. Especially when he has missed so many opportunities already this season (only 94 PA in MLB). And the flip-side benefit of rest comes before 4+ months of rest anyway -- the marginal benefit of an additional month rest seems small.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Thinking more about this -- did it turn around Dozier? Defensively, he didn't turn it around at shortstop -- he was moved to second base the following spring. He also didn't turn around with the bat until ~2 months into the following season, when he made the infamous adjustment to become the Dozier that we all know and love. Also, Dozier struggled at AAA that season where we didn't recall him in September. He wasn't demoted until mid-August and then posted a .499 OPS over 20 games in Rochester. Seems to be a very different situation altogether from Buxton, who as lost as he looked earlier this year, only had 94 PA in MLB in 2018, and he has been hitting well overall at AAA even if the K/BB rates aren't too good. Dozier was a rookie who had a bad year across both levels, which seems like an easier spot to say "stay home." It also appears Dozier went to winter ball for a few games? Dozier's situation as seems similar to Hicks in 2013 -- bad rookie season in MLB, demoted to AAA in August, hit .235/.339/.373 in 15 games down there, wasn't recalled, but they made him the opening day CF again in 2014. Not sure if the 2012-2014 Twins should be held up as models of player development...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    If you think Donaldson is likely to get 3-4 years -- what's the risk to the Jays on a QO? Seems like he would be sure to turn it down. Or if he did accept, he'd be an asset on a 1/18 deal (which would actually represent a pay cut from his 2018 salary).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    You might be right, I haven't thought about it too much. Donaldson missed about 40 games last year too. Could miss 100 this year, even if he returns soon. I just can't recall 4 year deals for guys who missed most of a season. And it's a fairly crowded market -- Machado, Moustakas, Escobar, etc. And Donaldson may have a QO attached, and those 3 guys won't. Some of it definitely hinges on him returning and hitting this last month. He got scratched from his 2nd rehab game yesterday, so there's still some uncertainty around that too.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    And it didn't for Aaron Hicks. Is it too late to snub Sano?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    But if you rotate Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, etc. through DH, then you are still giving extra starts to Cave and Adrianza. I am not sure there is any meaningful trend toward no full time DHs around the league. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2018&month=44&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d The A's and Mariners are certainly doing well with them. Compare it to 10 years ago: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2008&month=44&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d Thome would have looked mighty good in a Twins uniform a few years earlier. If anything, a team whose lineup is not that deep or strong should add the best hitters wherever they can, even if it is a full time DH.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Donaldson would have to take a huge discount to get multiple years, I think. I can't really envision what that deal looks like, unless it's got a bunch of options / opt-outs? Kinsler was just one idea. Point is, there are enough FA infielders that they aren't all going to get a lot of years or dollars. If they sign one guy better than that, a cheap short term projected 2 WAR type wouldn't be bad for the other spot. Just thinking aloud, if we want to roll with a guy like Austin starting at 1B/DH, or Cave in CF for a bit, it might make it more tolerable to not simultaneously rely on Sano as a starter too.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe? Donaldson is not getting a long-term deal. Kinsler is mostly defense now, but still 2+ bWAR, and they could get him short term for 2B and get Escobar for 3B with an eye toward shifting to 2B later, and make Sano earn his way back into the lineup. Just an idea, if the market allows.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    You could give Sano the Buxton treatment too; he also has an option remaining after this season. A little harder since we already recalled him in 2018, so it would take longer to gain an extra year of control next year -- if we optioned him to start 2019, we probably couldn't call him up until late June. But maybe he could use the work, and the motivation of not being given a job at 3B, 1B, or DH? We've got the money to fill all of those spots externally, if we want.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton can be optioned for ~29 days to start 2019 to get the same extra year of control. The greater chance of an "epic blunder" would seem to be counting on him for opening day 2019, regardless of what you do with him this September.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I know it's mostly a separate issue, but I'm not sure I am comfortable relying on Sano's bat anymore at either position...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless they are wildly front-loaded, those extensions wouldn't impact 2019 payroll much at all.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not wasted while Mauer is on the DL. Mauer's non-starting, non-DL time this year is more like 14%, and that doesn't have to change for 2019.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Meh. He's not tradeable before late July anyway, if at all, like most players on his expected contract.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    What you fear is actually a good test. If the manager can't reduce Mauer's role if his performance drops, then I don't want him as my manager. Same for my general manager. And if ownership gets involved to make him play, then I wouldn't want to work here as a manager or GM either. I am encouraged that we've already seen Mauer play less, and go to the DL quicker, it seems, even while he is finishing out his mega-contract. I am not too worried about his performance leash if he comes back next year on a 1 year, $5 mil deal or whatever. (That said, I can also see other directions to take the position/lineup/roster.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If Cruz is healthy and hitting, having him start 155 games would be a fantastic problem for the Twins to have! If that means Rosario and Sano each sit a few more days, I have no real issue with that -- neither one is a star right now anyway, with or without a few DH days.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    You want a placeholder at 1B? For Rooker? I think Rooker is an interesting prospect, but I am not sure he is quite at that level where you try to keep a short term path clear for him. I think if you sign Mauer to a Morrison or Rondell White type contract, I think it could absolutely come with an expectation that his playing time could be reduced by June if he struggles or is hurt. I'd like to see the front office make that clear and achievable among the stakeholders rather than avoid it entirely out of fear.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if Cruz would completely preclude it. Aside from Mauer, the Twins have only had a handful of guys use the DH spot in that fashion, mostly since we punted on the season anyway. A benefit of a mostly young lineup. Cruz will need an occasional day off anyway.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Cruz feels like a great low-risk add. The years and money almost certainly won't be enough to preclude cutting him or parking him on the DL if he struggles or gets hurt, but if he succeeds, he could be an ultra-reliable bat that could strengthen our everyday lineup or get flipped for prospects. The suspension risk doesn't worry me at all. He forfeits his salary on a suspension, and as a DH he is relatively easier to replace. It is a little tricky to fit him in as a DH only. But if we are planning on Sano and Austin on the team anyway, maybe not so tough. Or adding a 2B with some versatility.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe not a full-time, everyday DH, but I think this is an exaggeration. I suspect most teams have a Mauer/Morrison type plan at DH, unless perhaps you are stacked with great position players (which the Twins most certainly are not).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    See, I think Mauer in a greatly reduced role is actually *worse* than re-signing him to start. He is pretty useless on a modern MLB bench. Backup 1B/DH? He can pinch hit, probably only for a few guys, and most of the time you will need someone else to take over on defense. Whereas, if he starts, depending on your roster configuration, he doesn't necessarily affect the size or composition of your bench.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Can Cruz really expect a long term deal? I have to admit, I am intrigued by him...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct, Buxton is Super-2 regardless, since he is just shy of 3 full years. If he is called up for 13 days, he will hit 3 full years service time. He'd remain in the same 3 years service time group following the 2019 season, if we option him for ~29 days next season.
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