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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously Junis isn't a particularly good pitcher, but that HR rate doesn't seem that bad for 2019. AL SP as a whole gave up 1.52 HR/9 in 2019 (would be curious about the effect of openers?), while Junis was at 1.59. Junis allowed 31 HR in 175.1 IP for the season; the average AL SP would have allowed 29.6 in the same number of innings. The difference is even closer if we look at batters faced rather than innings pitched, because Junis faced more batters per inning than the average starter (due to worse than average opponent's batting average / WHIP). The average AL SP would have surrendered 30.3 HR facing the same number of batters as Junis in 2019. Of course, that ignores park factors -- ESPN lists Kaufman Stadium as below-average in HR park factor every year of Junis's career. Although looking at Junis specifically, the difference between his career home and road HR rates may only equal about 1 HR per season. And there it is! More words than I ever thought I'd write about Jakob Junis.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't mean to offend the signatories, but why are they so concerned about 2020 when they've already dismissed strike years? One of their grandkids should show them how anyone using a Google phone the past 38 years has seen 1981 as rock-bottom for Twins attendance -- not only total attendance, but also lower per-game attendance than 1974. And with no visible asterisk at Baseball-Reference. And actually, Baseball Reference is listing 2020 attendance so far as blank, not zero, so anyone using a Google phone right now to sort attendance won't see it as worse than 1974 or 1981 either: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/attend.shtml#franchise_years::7 I suppose that could change if they start allowing a small number of fans into games in 2020...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I've noticed that too. I used to love the "Park Audio" option on MLB.TV but that's gone this year (hopefully just temporarily).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Sue Nelson! Yes, I wonder what her circumstances are in 2020. It would be nice to hear her in the broadcasts.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally correct, although the extension was 3 years, $20.4 mil. And that includes his $2.9 mil arbitration salary for his last year of team control in 2019, which would have been mighty attractive given Pressly's performance (especially if you consider the knee injury a fluke which may not have happened under different circumstances). Technically he could have signed some kind of extension with Minnesota too, but I doubt it -- I don't think he was eager to commit here, and I don't think the Twins would have been eager to hand him $17.5 mil for 2020-2021 (plus a 2022 option which could have become guaranteed at $10 mil).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Without an extension, Pressly would have been a free agent last winter. And as a native Texan who had yet to sign more than a 1-year deal with the Twins, it's quite possible he was more willing to sign that extension with Houston than he would have been with Minnesota. My first thought was that having Pressly in 2019 meant we wouldn't have traded for Romo at the deadline, because Romo was a rental and Dyson had an extra year of control. (We could have still signed Romo in the offseason so the 2020 team would have been much the same.) But then I remembered how we comfortably acquired Romo a few days before the deadline, and only managed to get Dyson right up against the deadline. So maybe it's more likely we would have passed on Dyson because he was a more difficult acquisition, despite the extra year of control? Still may not have changed the 2020 team much, but maybe worth keeping an eye on the prospects exchanged in those two deals.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I've seen studies that suggest fans buy more beer/concessions in loud environments? Of course, no fans are present in 2020 -- but I think the players have gotten used to it, and enjoy it. I strongly suspect the music doesn't seem nearly as loud on the field as it is in the stands (since the speakers are all directly above the stands).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that Pressly’s injury and subsequent struggles late in 2019 was a fluke event caused by a batted ball off his knee. It may be appropriate to discount that injury and its effects in this evaluation. (His 2020 injuries so far might be fair game, although he may have left the alternate reality Twins as a free agent last offseason too.) That said, while the above may improve the Pressly side of the ledger, the Twins assembled a very good bullpen pretty quickly after his departure, so even a quality Pressly may have been superfluous. Although there are still nagging questions from last year’s ALDS where Duffey, Littell, and Stashak all contributed negatively early in the series — would Pressly have been a little more “ready for prime time”, reduced our reliance on the above 3 names, and helped us set a different tone for the series? Some of that may be on Rocco’s decision making too. But any Pressly effect is probably small enough that it could be eclipsed by a good postseason series in the near future.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    And who got the game-winning hit?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the Marlins have resumed play and are now tied (with the Twins and Cubs) for the best winning percentage in baseball! (thanks to a doubleheader sweep of the Orioles yesterday...)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    And that's actually tempered by his more "reasonable" 8 BB in 9.1 IP last year. in 2020, he has 8 BB in 1.2 IP now. (5 in 1.2 IP entering yesterday's game.) And yet Shelton brought him in to protect a lead in the 6th inning and a runner already in scoring position, knowing he'd either have to escape the inning of face a minimum of 3 batters, and with at least 3 better relievers apparently available...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Out-performed in a one-game sample in 2020? Here's how meaningful a one-game sample is: in Pressly's lone 2020 outing so far, he gave up 1 "earned" run in 2/3 of an inning -- and it was a due to a leadoff flyball misplayed into a triple, who only scored on an infield single with 2 outs by Anthony Rendon. Switch contexts, and I'm not sure Pressly and Alcala wouldn't have exchanged results too. Credit Alcala for settling into a decent outing, but let's not bring specious comparisons into play quite yet!
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I know it benefitted the Twins last night, but it was kind of painful to watch Miguel Del Pozo be forced to throw to 3 batters. I mean, Shelton knows the rules and probably shouldn't have brought him into that situation to begin with, so he deserves plenty of blame, but I don't like that rule.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Even better -- prorated for 60 games, it's actually about $269k!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Rainouts are relatively rare, especially in the modern era. In 2019, there were 38 rainouts, out of 2430 games. 8 stadiums have roofs, and 5 more are in California (they say it never rains in southern California...). And given the regional nature of the sport, rainouts are much more of a problem for ticketing and stadium operations, neither of which is a concern in 2020. Last Saturday, there wasn't supposed to be a nationally broadcast day game. The marquee matchup of Reds-Tigers was originally a 5 PM CDT start time on FS1, but the game time was moved up to 12 noon to avoid rain before being postponed completely. Given the matchup, I don't think FS1's ratings were affected much either way! Most Saturday "national" broadcasts are somewhat regional and played concurrently with another game, like last Saturday's 6 PM "national" games on Fox (NYY-BOS and HOU-LAA, the latter of which had an extremely low risk of inclement weather). Also note that Fox is trying to cram 6 months worth of national broadcasts into 2 months this season. I'm guessing a game like Reds-Tigers probably wouldn't make the slate in a normal season....
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    There are very few baseball fans who "enjoy watching multiple games" in a day. Baseball is a daily sport, unlike football (once a week) or even basketball and hockey (once every few days). Most baseball fans just follow 1 team/game per day, and the best time to reach most of those fans is usually the evening. Those of us that use MLB.TV to follow multiple games in the background on a regular basis are a very small segment of baseball fans, and a segment that generates little direct revenue for MLB. (As evidenced, in part, by the extremely low price of MLB.TV and relative scarcity of ads on the service.) Designing their broadcast schedule around us would make no sense! Especially when we diehards could just as easily put on an archived game that we didn't follow last night and be entertained...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    In terms of broadcast media, MLB is a largely regional sport. And local MLB TV ratings have been doing great in recent years with the primetime format -- and are largely impervious to sports competition (outside of a local NFL game at the same time). I doubt the Twins lost many viewers in the upper midwest last night to first-round Spurs-76ers or Canadiens-Penguins matchups. And the same factors that are causing some people to work from home during the day right now are also keeping them home in the evenings too, mostly without work responsibility, so those evening local MLB ratings could be even better in 2020, even if the NBA and NHL are drawing viewers too. ("A rising tide lifts all boats" so to speak.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct. It was originally going to be bumped up to 15 days for pitchers this season (to discourage abuse of the IL), but due to the pandemic, they dropped it back down to 10 for this year.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Bump! Last day for the promo, this season.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The outcome wasn't good, but I liked this game. Free TV, 6 PM start time, pitcher's duel, was over at 9 PM. Pace could be a little better -- this is the kind of game that should clock in closer to 2.5 hours than 3 hours, but a DVR helps in that regard.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    This is an excellent point that has been overlooked. Mathematically, the shorter the sample, the less separation between team records. Heck, there may even be a number of ties among the top 5 spots. Makes sense they'd want to reduce the importance of a 60-game season (heavily division weighted) in determining the playoffs, as compared to a 162 game season (with a slightly more balance schedule). Hopefully it's just a one-year thing, though!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Has the scenario you described ("a lousy team with an ace pitcher could knock off a better overall team without an ace") actually happened in the one-game wild card matchups? I think that is an exaggerating that ignores the fact that the structure of MLB and the wild-card setup generally produces a fairly even matchup. And the point of the wild card is that it shouldn't be "fair" relative to the division winners. If a team wanted to avoid that fate, they could have won their division instead. I don't know if 3 home games vs 1 home games is fundamentally more "fair" for the wild card contestants, but it takes longer and usually involves lesser players. The playoffs should be more sprint than marathon anyway. I think I'd rather stick with the one-game wild card.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    While I agree generally that any team would have a slim chance in any series, I think extrapolating those odds from regular-season records isn't quite right. The Yankees weren't playing a 3-game series facing elimination when they lost series to the Tigers and Orioles -- they were playing a random 3 games in a 162 game long marathon. They approached it differently, and most certainly made choices in roster and playing time that they wouldn't have made in a postseason series.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Hulu Live TV and AT&T TV Now would have it in Chicago (via the Cubs' new Marquee Sports Network). Both have free trials. But it’s just one game (and it doesn’t even count!). Far more important that your TV provider has NBC Sports Chicago for Twins / White Sox games starting Friday!
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