Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I said an 80-85 win forecast, not that 80-85 would win the division. A team with an 80-85 win forecast might win 90 (they may also lose 90 ), but perhaps more importantly, they may find themselves in the right circumstances midseason to make some moves. Point being, there's value in staying in that forecast range even when you're working toward longer-term goals. There are only 6 teams in all of MLB who project to 90+ wins for 2019 right now, per Fangraphs. That's elite territory. Obviously we all want the Twins to get into that group too, but it's virtually impossible to move from 80 to 90 on paper in one offseason. If they've got a plan for 90 wins in 2021, and can keep us in 80-85 in the meantime, that's not bad -- although I echo the sentiments of others here that such a 2021 plan might not be achievable without some longer-range talent additions that just these 1-2 year MLB moves (plus the draft and deadline deals).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    How many super teams have we ever seen in the AL Central? Chicago and Detroit have only reached 95 wins twice each in the history of the AL Central. Cleveland 4 times, but only 2 since 1997. KC, never. Twins, once (although twice more at 94). I get that Chicago and others won't be awful forever, but I don't think there is a serious risk of falling behind a "super team" in the AL Central. An 80-85 win forecast should be enough to keep us in the mix most every year. Not that we should limit ourselves to that, but it's not necessarily bad to have a few years like that while hopefully building toward something better.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    A 52 wRC+, over 410 PA, can almost certainly be universally characterized as "awful". Obviously, it would be worse if he was older or repeating a level or playing a corner position, but it's still awful.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Nitpick, but that seems a touch high. Using MLBTR's arbitration estimates, that trio clocks in at $25.3 mil for 2019.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for sharing, I hadn't seen that. (Although I had heard earlier speculation.) I wonder how true it is, or how much Levine might simply be embracing an excuse that's a bit of a deflection of his own responsibilities. (Obviously he assembled the roster, but saying they struggled because of chemistry is a bit gentler than other GM job analysis.) Also, FWIW, only Lynn and Duke were acquired as strictly one-year "mercenaries" last winter. Odorizzi had 2 years control through arb, Reed a 2 year guarantee, and Morrison and Rodney 2 years through team options. And as far as current players who were "mercenaries" on expiring contracts, it was only Dozier, Escobar, and Mauer. (Erv had a team option too.) I doubt Mauer could be considered "mercenary" in any context, and by all accounts Escobar was beloved and offered an extension. So this "mercenary" line of thinking seems like a convenient way of laying outsized blame on primarily two guys, Lynn and Dozier, when they're already out the door. Neither was great for the Twins in 2018, but this probably exaggerates their roles in our scuffles. Edit to add: And of course, this offseason so far, they have added a 2 year guy in Cron and another 1 year mercenary in Schoop. And I guess by the earlier definition, Reed and Odorizzi join the expiring contract "mercenary" club, along with Gibson and Castro.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    As a baseball nerd, I love Rule 5, and I love rooting for underdogs like Rule 5 picks, but honestly, I think I'd rather see my favorite team have a better plan for talent acquisition and roster construction these days.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    $100k seems cheap, but in modern Rule 5, you're not buying much. Take a look at the recent results: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results The last couple years, it's like maybe 1 useful guy out of 18 picks. By comparison, there are quite a few far more successful/valuable guys signed on minor league deals every year -- like Brandon Morrow for the Dodgers a couple years ago, Kintzler for the Twins, etc. Dereck Rodriguez, even. And those guys actually cost LESS than $100k (not to mention not requiring a 25 man roster spot). You'd probably be better off trying to identify those guys and enticing them to sign with the roster spot you would have used on a Rule 5 pick instead. It comes down to, what's the best 40-man I can assemble in the offseason? And what's the best 25-man I can field to start the season? Talent can be scarce, but not so scarce that Rule 5 picks need to be part of those roster equations, at the low odds of recent Rule 5 results. There's enough potential/talent available, in free agency, trades, etc., that it's easy to see why it's preferable for most teams to opt against drafting/rostering Rule 5 guys.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Justin Haley threw 7.2 innings of mop-up duty for the Red Sox in June, was nowhere near their MLB roster in the second half of the season much less the postseason, and cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man by Boston on Nov. 1st, before he elected minor league free agency on Nov. 2. So if you want him back, here's your chance! You can give him a spot instead of another Rule 5 guy.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, per Wikipedia, White Sox catcher Omar Narvaez and Marlins/Phillies 1B Justin Bour were selected in the minor league phase of the 2013 Rule 5 draft. Alexi Ogando and Aejandro De Aza are two more names I recognized when scanning the list. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results Still, the odds are quite low.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Former Twins 3B Brian Buscher:
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    How about neither hand?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Reed might be better than Granite, but Granite has options. We won't be able to shuttle Reed back and forth from AAA. (So he pretty much has to be back end of the 25 man rather than 40 man)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Reed was also repeating both AA and AAA last year. Not that he's super old or anything, but prior to his breakout last year, he already had 590 career PA at AA, and 640 more at AAA. Reed is also 16 days older than Jake Cave. He turns 26 on Nov. 18, while Cave do so on Dec. 4.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Also worth noting Reed has been optioned each of the last 3 years (2016, 2017, 2018). So he will be out of options next spring -- which is probably why the Braves were waiving him. A team has to ask itself: worth rostering the guy all winter, if there is a reasonable chance he doesn't make your club and you lose him on waivers next spring? Of course, some teams have more roster room than others... Edit to add: Cave just used his first option year in 2018, so he still has 2 more.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. Reed's BABIP in the minors this year looked to be about .460. Which is impressive, but also nowhere near sustainable.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. See the discussion above. Berardino also confirmed Alcala's status back when we acquired him: https://twitter.com/mikeberardino/status/1023235490491891714
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct. Graterol was first assigned to the DSL Twins (albeit not until 2015, but that doesn't matter), and the DSL season was already over by Sep. 1st in 2014. Hypothetically, had he first been assigned to a full season minor league in 2015, he could have been eligible this winter.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    "What’s that? Rose Bowl? Don’t talk about - Rose Bowl? You kidding me? Rose Bowl? I just hope we can win a game!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2R2sH2ScBM
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't trying to troll you, sorry. I don't think you were the only one with the moral victory angle last week. I am just hanging out on the lighter side of the discussion, that's all! (Coping mechanism for sports fandom)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I presume today's game was fulfilling the dying wish of some Nebraskan boy.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Moral victory?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Nah. They could do all right in Division II.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The "good upper level prospect" in this equation would have to be Lewis or maybe Kiriloff. There is no way that Odorizzi, Gonsalves, and, say, Gordon could fetch a "top young starter that can be a big part of the staff for many years." I'm not even sure if that would be enough to rent an old starter.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, in the context of the league non-pitcher K% jumping 1.8% since 2014, Odorizzi's 2018 increase may not be particularly meaningful.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that Mauer and Morneau's prime ages/health overlapped is pretty much coicidence. Mauer was just fine in 2012-2013 without much of a supporting cast (Morneau was a shell of his former self by then), and when Morneau missed the ends of the 2009 and 2010 seasons, etc.
×
×
  • Create New...