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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    What about a pitcher stalking a baserunner up the first base line after the inning is over, like Friday night? Is that still fun? Or did that cross a line when the league is enforcing distancing rules? Edit: I think I understand you now. You're not complaining about the suspension as others were doing, but rather you're complaining about players taking exception with each other and escalating things like on Friday night. So, Romo should yell into his glove, and Lindor should celebrate in the dugout with his teammates, and neither should feel the need to confront each other physically. Right? I can get behind that.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That's possible, and would be pretty interesting! Although they could still sprinkle in some mid-series off-days. Theoff-days could stagger the games for TV broadcast purposes (so they could get more games in prime time, and maybe more on desirable days of the week).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm hoping Phil Collins stops by! Edit: "No Bullpen Jacket Required"?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    In the absence of a formal game thread, here is an informal one instead! (Feel free to delete this one if the real game threader appears.) National TV! (FOX over the air, for all of you cord-cutters out there.) CLE Lineup 1. Francisco Lindor (S) SS 2. Cesar Hernandez (S) 2B 3. Jose Ramirez (S) 3B 4. Carlos Santana (S) 1B 5. Franmil Reyes (R) DH 6. Jordan Luplow (R) RF 7. Oscar Mercado (R) LF 8. Roberto Perez (R) C 9. Delino DeShields (R) CF SP: Zach Plesac, RHP MIN Lineup 1. Jorge Polanco (S) SS 2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B 3. Nelson Cruz (R) DH 4. Eddie Rosario (L) LF 5. Miguel Sano (R) 1B 6. Brent Rooker (R) RF 7. Byron Buxton (R) CF 8. Marwin Gonzalez (S) 2B 9. Willians Astudillo (R) C SP: Rich Hill, LHP
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Romo's bullpen cart:
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Blankenhorn is in a tough spot right now. Almost nothing he could do in the next 10 days would be enough to convince you he belongs in the postseason, or that he's not worth keeping on the 40-man this winter. Probably better just to keep playing Gonzalez and Adrianza, get their steady play as veterans in the field, and hope that consistent ABs help them get sharper for the postseason.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it is track record more than wins. Maeda has been great this year, but only this year — 9 starts. Bieber and Giolito were aces last year too. Hopefully Maeda has nice deep postseason run to make his case this year, though!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the Yankees are too concerned about the efficiency of their spending... (FWIW, Cole threw a 2-hit shutout today, albeit only in a 7 inning game.)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    For 2020, in case of inclement weather, they will just play the game on MLB The Show anyway.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Gibson hasn't been good in 2020, but remember it's only been 9 starts under really weird circumstances. And 3/28 isn't that big of a contract for a pitcher with Gibson's track record (inconsistent, but 10.2 bWAR, 13.1 fWAR in last 7 seasons). MLBTR predicted 2/18 for him, a Fangraphs writer predicted 3/45, their crowdsource 2/20 -- 3/28 doesn't seem out of line by those measures either. The Rangers gave virtually the same contract to Mike Minor and Lance Lynn the last couple years, so if they're just doing it blindly they've gotten pretty good results on it overall. (Not that I expect Gibson to turn out as well as those two.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, being a DH who didn't didn't become dominant offensively until age ~33 is a hard recipe for the hall of fame! But I'd certainly like to see the Twins enhance his case with some postseason heroics this year.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    And I’m pointing out that team knows of this possibility in advance and has an opportunity to avoid that outcome through their own play.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    With 8 teams qualifying, I think they wanted to prevent teams from coasting in the middle of that group. So now we get teams fighting for the division, teams fighting for 2nd place, and teams just trying to qualify. And the Twins are hardly being persecuted by this setup. We knew the rules, and we’ve had plenty of opportunities to pick up additional wins and we still have more opportunities head to head with Cleveland and Chicago.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about "always". If you click through to the linked boxscore, sure you see Team LOB 10. But you also see a LOB column for the players, at the bottom of which is shown the team total of 22. It's not like you have to hunt for it or calculate it yourself. And both pieces of information are informative. For example, say there were two teams, one which stranded a leadoff baserunner every inning, and the other which stranded a two-out baserunner every inning. Both have a Team LOB of 9. But their team total LOBs would be 9 vs 27. It's worth pointing out if a team falls closer to the latter performance than the former in that metric! If you were writing a formal paper, I'd recommend making a distinction between the two, but for discussion and message board posts, I think either could be acceptable depending on the circumstances.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Rosario hasn't hit 32 HR or driven in 100+ runs on a regular basis either -- 2019 was the only time he reached either, in a season of record-breaking HR totals all over. Although he would be on pace to do so again in 2020 but with a long way to go. His overall wRC+ from 2019-2020 is only 102, barely above the cumulative MLB LF performance during that time (~99). He has ranked top 10 in outfield assists 3 times in his 6 seasons, although again I'm not sure how to consider that relative to his overall performance. He's definitely not without value, but he definitely seems to be in the zone where you'd look for top prospects to either exceed his performance or at least equal it, overall, at a cheaper salary (thereby allowing the team to spend those resources elsewhere). Sure, as a rookie, that might be a fair median projection. Although HR and RBI are going to be playing-time (and batting-order) dependent. But the nice thing about rookies is that you don't have to promote them, or you can demote them, if they're not playing well. And if the Twins have 4 quality prospects they could try in this spot, they can probably get at least 1 out of the 4 to perform better than that median projection. You might lose a regular season win or two in Rosario's spot, but with the money you save, you may be able to make that up elsewhere on your roster. And of course, for a well-built and deep team like the Twins, regular season wins may not be quite as valuable anymore as postseason wins (especially if expanded playoffs are here to stay). Is Rosario an impact player in a short series?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Nitpic: you're both right! The Twins had 10 "team LOB" in the game, but adding up each batter's individual LOB equals 22. (As an example, if 3 guys in a row strand the bases loaded, your team LOB would be 3 for that inning, but adding up each batter's individual LOB would equal 9.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    If you lose a player from your 60 man pool (by trade, waivers, or release), you can replace them. https://m.startribune.com/alex-avila-goes-on-injured-list-as-twins-face-tigers-again/572329502/
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not as if batters can only have one "goal" though. They have an approach that can produce a variety of outcomes, and you just pointed out his approach was almost certainly different here from a normal PA (emphasizing contact). Look at the PA -- Byron laid off the first two pitches completely. Does he do that in normal PA? Probably not. But here he's being more patient, more deliberate. By pitch #5 of the at-bat, he had two strikes on him, and it was a low pitch but not in the dirt, and he had seen low pitches twice already. In a normal PA, maybe Byron is still looking for something to drive there and is more willing to strike out, or forces himself to lay off that pitch. But not here. Morneau even mentioned it on the broadcast -- shorten up, put the bat on the ball, and take off running. And with a runner on third, the Tigers couldn't throw too much junk to him -- they had to make sure the pitch was catchable for the catcher, which also means fairly hittable for the batter. I'm not saying Buxton was 100% sure to beat out any grounder -- of course he wasn't. But from the Tigers perspective, if you just need an out, any out, and you can't just spike pitches in the dirt with the runner at third, I'd prefer to throw to Marwin with the bases loaded instead of Byron with second and third.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    With 2 outs, there is nothing particularly special about a strikeout or pop-up in this situation. (Maybe if he had a meaningfully high rate of "first pitch pop ups" that would reduce the risk of a passed ball or wild pitch on subsequent pitches, but I'm guessing Cruz wasn't eager to dash home under those circumstances either.) You just need the out. If you pitch to Byron, there are only 3 realistic possibilities to record the out: 1. Strikeout 2. Ball in the air 3. Throw out Buxton at first on a grounder If you walk Buxton and pitch to Marwin, yes you lose the ability to walk him, but you expand that list of possibilities (and the grounder possibility becomes more realistic, IMO): 1. Strikeout 2. Ball in the air 3. Throw out Marwin at first on a grounder 4. Force play at any base BTW, Byron and Marwin have only slight differences in their overall BB%, K%, and BABIP since the beginning of 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=14161,5497&startdate=&enddate=
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The runner at second is a fringe benefit of my strategy, not the primary motivator. To get out of the 9th inning, 2 outs, runners on 2nd and 3rd, I want a force play at every base, and I don't want to get stuck in a footrace with Buxton. I also don't think you can look at how Buxton runs on normal ground balls to assess how it would play out here. I'm sure Buxton hustles normally, but I am also sure there is a special motivator for him on the play, knowing that if he beats it out we win the game -- he was going to put every ounce of his special ability to use on this play. Edit to add: for that matter, I'm not sure if ground ball rate is going to be accurate in this situation either. Buxton approaches a normal AB trying to drive a pitch to the outfield -- but when a ground ball to the left side could win the game, he's probably employing a different approach.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably — but like I said, even punching him out there, the Tigers are still favored to lose with Buxton at 2B to begin the 10th. And as we saw, if the Tigers pitcher fails to strike him out or pop him up, it’s game over. I mean, there is no easy path to victory when the other team has runners at second and third in the final inning of a tie game, but I’d rather ask my pitcher to throw strikes to Marwin than to do what they did.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Gonzalez is quite slow though: https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1300228057664491524?s=20 Buxton not only scores on more grounders / flies, but he also is more likely to advance from second to third on those grounders or flies (or passed balls, wild pitches). More likely to score directly from 2nd on a single or an error too. Especially if balls in play are scarce as you say, Buxton’s increased ability to advance on those scarce BIPs is magnified.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It appears the Tigers made a major blunder by not simply waking Buxton in that spot. Yeah, it would have loaded the bases and reduced the pitcher’s margin for error in terms of walking the next batter (Marwin), but it would have: 1. Restored the force play at every base 2. Largely taken Buxton’s legs out of the situation 3. In the event the game remained tied and gone to extra innings, it would have put Marwin at 2B to start the 10th rather than Buxton. As it was, pitching to Buxton there meant the Tigers were pretty much destined to lose, if not in that plate appearance then likely in the next inning or two.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Would they have had a better chance of throwing Cruz out at the plate?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    He probably meant 20% of his current K rate. 20% of 44 is 8.8.
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