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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously a tough result, but I thought this was a fun game! Maybe a little long/slow (I mostly listened on radio, which helps), but close, tense, meaningful -- one of the more entertaining Twins/White Sox matchups in years. Hopefully games 2-4 keep it up (with improved results).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Only twice -- his last two PAs. In the 6th, he struck out, in the 8th, he grounded out. He also K'd in the 1st with a runner on 1st and 1 out, and he DP'd with runners at the corners and 1 out in the 3rd. But an intentional walk in the 5th!
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, correct. It is even up on the Twins official transactions page: https://www.mlb.com/twins/roster/transactions
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    But the Bills are due for some postseason success!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Since the OP is counting extensions like Yelich and Votto, it would be only fair to mention Trout too. Machado, Betts, Goldschmidt, and Rendon are also having good seasons this year. They'll be worse, maybe even bad, by the end of their deals, but teams know that going in.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Even the Phillies know how that will probably go, but that's just part of the price of having Harper right now. Not every team can sign a Nelson Cruz for every position, every offseason. At least the Phillies are getting "prime" years in Harper's 20's as part of the deal, as compared to other long-term contracts signed post-age-30.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe a little early to be crowing about Yelich. And he's only 28, and his contract only goes through age 36. There may be some low value years near the end, but he's got plenty of time for more big seasons before that point. If you really want to believe 2020 numbers, Cano could be just fine (at least offensively -- maybe a DH now?), plus Heyward and Hosmer are doing well this year. Edit: Wil Myers too!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Certainly not every player is the same. But if we think the front office knew what they were doing in promoting Jeffers and Rooker when they did, why not extend some benefit of the doubt that they are choosing the right course for Kirilloff? (Although note that even Jeffers had a .520 OPS in MLB a week ago -- there's hardly any time left this season to discern between a normal adjustment period and a guy not being ready.) Because the Twins are a lock to make the playoffs, they can (and should) prioritize some short-term goals. The next two weeks aren't going to make any long-term difference for Alex Kirilloff's development. Don't get me wrong -- I'd be excited to see Kirilloff debut and hoping for the best. But I'm not going to be upset if we don't see him either.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It's certainly possible, although it wouldn't surprise me if Kirilloff was a little behind where Rooker was, and the odds of Kirilloff actually helping more than Cave and Wade this year are low.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I tend to agree, although it's worth keeping in mind how small of a sample that is. Also worth remembering that the Twins came into the season more "fully formed" than the White Sox. For example, the Twins didn't plan to spend any time in 2020 sorting through guys like Reynaldo Lopez, who was the starter (and loser) in the Twins two most lopsided wins vs the White Sox so far. And now that the postseason is in sight, the White Sox have called up a top SP prospect in Dunning and are mostly phasing Lopez out (at least they bounced him from the rotation a couple weeks ago and don't intend to throw him vs the Twins again this week). Decisions like that don't mean the White Sox are the equals of the Twins, but they can easily distort the small sample records we look at. Although tonight's White Sox starter Dylan Cease is still pretty shaky, and evidence that the White Sox aren't quite at the Twins level yet. And the White Sox definitely look worse in a 4-game series as compared to a 3-game series!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    You may be somewhat facetious here, but perhaps I did a poor job explaining it. The basic concept is pretty simple. We all know pitchers face teams of different quality, and that is only magnified in 2020. The Twins are playing only central division teams this year. The 10 central division teams collectively average 4.35 runs per game. Only 1 team out of 10 (White Sox) above league average in runs per game. The Braves and Nats face only east division teams this year. The 10 east division teams collectively average 4.96 runs per game. 7 of 10 teams above league average, and 2 more just a hair below. There are 5 central teams who score fewer runs than the worst run scoring east team (Miami). So you can see how Maeda might be facing inferior offenses than Scherzer or Fried! And you could repeat the above exercise with park factors, and also compare the Twins team defensive performance with that of Washington or Atlanta. Those are harder to quantify, of course, but the concepts are not foreign to baseball fans. Obviously you don’t have to go through these exercises if you don’t want to, but the OP was interested enough to ask the question — you don’t have to be.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure there is. Rooker to the 45-day IL could let us activate Bailey without cutting anyone from the 40-man, if he is ready and we want to get a look at him. Or if Garver has a setback this week, we could add another catcher for insurance. In other years, a team might use it to add a fireballing prospect to the 40-man a couple months early and see if they can catch lightning in bottle. Maybe if another outfielder gets hurt this week, we could add Kirilloff in a similar fashion?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Marwin is actually up to .619 after the game today.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    bWAR doesn’t have anything to do with K rate or BB rate or hit rate or HR rate. It is strictly run prevention, with adjustments for context. Check out the Player Value — Pitching table. That breaks down bWAR a little bit. They start with the pitcher’s RA9 (like ERA but including unearned runs), then they consider opposition (RA9opp), team defense (RA9def), and park factors (PPFp). So in B-Ref’s estimation, while Scherzer has a higher RA9 than Maeda, overall he has faced better opposing offenses, has a worse team defense behind him, and has pitched more in hitter’s parks than Maeda. Fried too. Maeda’s RA9 is 2.43, and B-Ref calculates that the average pitcher would have a 4.04 against the same offenses, in front of the same defense, and in the same parks (RA9avg). By comparison, Scherzer’s RA9 is higher at 3.40 but the average pitcher would have done much, much worse under his same conditions — RA9avg of 6.12. Similar story for Fried: RA9 of 1.98, vs a RA9avg of 5.85. That’s not to say B-Ref is correct on all of this, but that is the explanation.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Turtles can float!
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope! 45-day IL (normally 60-day IL) guys don't have to be activated until after the World Series. (Only 10/15 day IL guys are activated at the end of the regular season.) BUT, you can't place a guy on the 45/60 day IL during the postseason.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    When they are hitting, just watch them reflected in a mirror -- problem solved!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, every team needs 4+ outfielders. And Cave's demonstrated ability to play CF plus his option year remaining could be appealing to almost any team. Wade should have an option year left too. Not that either would fetch a great haul, but we could find a decent match. On a surprising tangent, the 3 primary OF listed for the Giants on B-Ref right now have OPS+ figures of 138, 159, and 179. Plus a 102 guy on the bench who has primarily played CF this year, and a 149 "utility" guy who has gotten most of his reps in LF this year. And all of those guys are controlled for 2-5 more seasons. (Now, a few of them might be stone gloves or playing out of position, but still...) The Giants altogether are very surprising -- 23-22, in the #7 playoff spot, team OPS+ of 116. Pitching has been weaker but still has some solid performers in Cueto, Gausman, etc.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup, and I edited my post accordingly! Thanks for helping me see the error of my ways.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    They could put Rooker on the 45-day IL and add Kirilloff to the 40-man in his place -- Kirilloff has to be added to the 40-man this offseason anyway, and he can't burn an option year anymore. Although that could leave them with slightly less flexibility to add another player later -- say, if they want a spot for an emergency catcher. (Especially if Nick Gordon starts counting against the 40-man again at some point.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. I was just pointing out that one could like and endorse the "fun" Romo brings, while also understanding the league's stance on what happened Friday night. But re-reading it, I think I misunderstood Brock...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Love the turtle, but I think that's debatable, and perhaps more importantly, playing Astudillo at 2B right now is kind of a waste unless you actually want him there during the postseason. Also, didn't Marwin "crush the ball" even more than Astudillo yesterday?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler is eligible to be activated today. I guess "Rooker to IL, Kepler activated" would have some symmetry with the original transaction, although sadly Rooker can't come back in 10 days...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Tough break for Rooker. But I was wondering -- on that HBP, does the check swing count as an effort to avoid getting hit? Otherwise, he didn't really move, so I think it could be a dead ball and called a ball rather than a HBP. I know a check swing doesn't feel like much of an attempt to avoid getting hit, but it's such a subjective determination and is so rarely made, maybe umps do consider that. Just curious.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No. Unlike the 40-man roster, the 60-man pool includes players on the injured lists. The only way to add a player to the 60-man pool is to trade, release, or waive a player currently in the 60-man pool. They could put Rooker on the 45-day IL, and take a player from the 60-man pool and add him to the 40-man roster in Rooker's place. But they probably just leave the spot open until they need it (i.e. for an emergency catcher).
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