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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure the Twins can take competition into consideration when judging Bailey's performance tonight. Although worth noting the Tigers overall offensive performance this year has been indistinguishable from that of the Cubs. (And better than that of Cleveland and KC.) The choice is evaluating him in a real MLB game vs Detroit (and/or Cincinnati), or in a simulated game in St. Paul. (And I'm guessing the ship has sailed on Bailey starting in the postseason, barring an unexpected emergency -- but he still needs to pitch to be evaluated for potential long relief duty.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. The Rays included their top prospect Wander Franco, and the Phillies included 4 guys who aren't on their 40-man roster. You'll just have to clear a spot and add them to the 40-man roster if you want to actually use them in a game.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Dobnak is not eligible to return until Friday Sep. 25 unless someone goes on the IL. But I don't think Bailey is a bad option tonight either -- don't forget, he was solid for the A's down the stretch last year including 2 good starts vs NYY. If he is healthy now, a 2 month absence up until now doesn't disqualify him from potentially being useful in long relief in the postseason.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    All optioned players are automatically "recalled" as soon as the MLB regular season ends -- I think optional assignment status ceases to exist at that point, so I don't think the 10-day minimum applies anymore (although you are right that in a normal season, it's not an issue anyway, since the minor league seasons generally end at least 10 days earlier). So Wade or anyone else could still be included on a postseason roster next week, even if they are optioned this week. https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3521 FWIW, the Phillies and Rays have both announced their 40-man postseason player pools, and both include players that have been optioned in recent days (and would not normally be eligible to be recalled from option assignment when the playoffs begin on Sep. 29).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You're probably thinking of Brian McCann, the catcher who had an altercation with Carlos Gomez. Although veteran catchers in general might be more predisposed to red-assery?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting Stashak has been coming in with the lead almost exclusively, though. Here's Alcala's game log -- he's more often coming in with a deficit: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=alcaljo01&t=p&year=2020#pitching_gamelogs::none Entered 5t --- 0 out d3 9b --- 0 out a5 5b --- 0 out d4 5t --- 0 out d2 11t -2- 0 out tie 4b 12- 0 out d3 6b --- 0 out a1 5b 1-- 2 out d2 7t --- 0 out a7 8t --- 0 out d1 6b --- 0 out d2 8b -23 1 out d2 7b --- 0 out d3
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    An easy way to check is looking at the "Entered" column (second-to-last column) on the B-Ref pitcher game logs. Here's Stashak: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=stashco01&t=p&year=2020#pitching_gamelogs::none Entered 8b --- 0 out a5 7t --- 0 out a4 8t --- 0 out a3 7b --- 0 out a1 4b 1-- 0 out tie 2b --- 0 out a1 8t --- 0 out a3 7t --- 2 out a3 4b --- 2 out a2 It's not mop-up usage, but he's only entered once with a runner on base or in a tie game (and that was the same game, and only in the 4th inning). 6 times he's entered in the 7th inning or later, and only once did he have less than a 3 run lead.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Good post! I'll add that you probably want to use "gmLI" (game-entering leverage index) to judge reliever usage -- that's the leverage when they enter the game. "aLI" (average leverage index) is the average leverage index over all of the PAs they pitch -- so a pitcher who struggles could make his own aLI increase, while a pitcher who succeeds can make his own aLI decrease. In the case of the 2020 Twins, though, both figures seem to give the same rough order, with Alcala/Stashak at the bottom. Looks like B-Ref doesn't include gmLI in the reliever only table, but you'll find it in the overall Pitcher Value table (and starters will just have a blank value in that column): https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2020.shtml#players_value_pitching::15
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It was probably the truth when the newspaper went to print!
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Bailey activated, will start tonight vs Detroit. The 40-man roster is full again. Poppen optioned to make room on the 28-man active roster.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite -- Cleveland has pushed back Bieber a day, to set him up for the postseason. Tonight is now a bullpen game for Cleveland, led by recent acquisition Cal Quantrill. That does set up Giolito vs Bieber tomorrow though, and Keuchel vs Plesac on Thursday.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be, but also I think we may have been overrating Littell a bit. He's still young with an option remaining, but remember he was an iffy enough starting prospect to be dealt for 2 months of Jaime Garcia. And even in his successful bullpen stint with the Twins in 2019, he only had a 7.8 K/9 and 3.62 FIP. He's not a bad pitcher to have around, but in this age of 1 million relievers, every team likely has similar quality bullpen projects and/or access to similar ones every offseason -- they may not have to spend a 40-man spot on another one right now.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually those odds I quoted understated it -- Toronto was 99.2% to make the playoffs before yesterday's game (I was just quoting their odds of 3rd place wild card). Up to 99.3% now. Their magic number is down to 3 -- any combination of 3 Toronto wins or Seattle losses will lock up a spot. With 6 games remaining for both teams, that's about as close to locked up as you can get, without officially being locked up. And I think Toronto is already resting / setting up rotation a bit. Last night Toronto started Matt Shoemaker in the series opener vs the Yankees. Shoemaker had been sidelined for a month, but the Jays want him back for potential postseason usage. After 3 innings, leading 5-1, they followed him with T.J. Zeuch making just his 2nd MLB appearance this year since being recalled. Not exactly resting, but maybe not exactly fighting really hard either? Tonight they are starting Tanner Roark vs Gerrit Cole. Roark, with a 6.41 ERA and 7.71 FIP, is questionable to make the postseason rotation, but Toronto has a few sub-optimal starters to sort through this final week. Again, maybe not a starting assignment we'd see if their playoff aspirations were more in doubt.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    White Sox manager Renteria was ejected late last night for arguing balls & strikes with the same ump who ejected Donaldson (Dan Bellino). Specifically after James McCann objected to a third strike call while batting in the 9th -- although every source I've seen (except White Sox announcers ) suggests that particular pitch was called correctly. Here's the zone for last night's Cleveland - White Sox game: Interesting to visualize how both team's pitchers utilize the zone -- the Cleveland pitchers were definitely attacking the top of the zone, and the outside edge vs RHB.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a good question too, and much more immediate. It would be hard to leave off Garver, but if he doesn't heat up this final week, the fact that Avila brings a patient lefty bat with postseason experience would be tempting. (Albeit, Avila's batting line in the postseason is not very good!) I suppose with a 28 man roster, they could bring all 3. Would be a little unusual, but unless Arraez or Odorizzi needs the spot, it might not be an issue. They could always reassess after each round.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That's the way the article sounded. I'm guessing MLB wants ample replacements ready, but MLB doesn't want that many players in their CA/TX bubbles? I'd say that would be an advantage for teams closer to CA/TX (shorter flight for replacements) but there are so few injury replacements during the postseason, it probably won't make any difference. Once the Twins are done playing in Target Field (hopefully after the first round), I suppose the 12 pool guys wouldn't have to be in St. Paul anymore and they could use Target Field instead.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    According to this article: https://www.nj.com/yankees/2020/09/yankees-postseason-taxi-squad-options-opting-out-youre-either-all-in-or-youre-not-brian-cashman-declares.html It sounds like there is a 40-man postseason player pool, different from the 40-man roster. 28 of those will be on the postseason active roster, but the other 12 will have to remain quarantined at the team's alternate training site, ready in case of injury to one of the 28. And I haven't heard of any changes to the postseason injury replacement rules, so if you want to swap out an injured player for an alternate player, the injured player will have to miss the duration of the current series and the entire next series. (And only pitchers can replace a pitcher, and position players must replace a position player.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Thing is, not every other team -- even "tested" teams -- will win when they absolutely have to either (as fans of Cleveland, the Twins, etc. can attest to). And I don't think anyone is predicting the WS for the White Sox this year!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Garver needs reps, but he also needs to eased back into things. And I'm not sure if maximizing catching reps is all that important for Jeffers at this point in the season -- he's had plenty already. Now it seems perfectly valid to balance rest and regular reps for all 3 catching options, so they're all ready in case they are needed.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs odds update! Last night the Twins chance at winning the division improved from 10.6% to 16.2.% with the White Sox loss
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    White Sox lose... Yankees trail 10-1 after 6 innings vs Toronto...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    As I noted in my post above, Toronto is already a virtual lock for a road wild card seed (95.6% at Fangraphs), so they may not push the Yankees as much as we'd hope! The Marlins are a bit more uncertain but still fairly comfortable in the NL mix -- 83.9% postseason odds, and only about a 4.7% chance of getting home field. Obviously these teams are still capable of beating the Yankees on any given day, but if they are looking ahead to the postseason themselves, it might make it a little less likely for the Yankees to have a really bad week. These are not unrealistic outcomes, though! Should be fun scoreboard watching.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for breaking it down! It might not help the Twins that Cleveland has very little to play for -- they're virtually a lock for a road wild card seed (95.7% per Fangraphs). Likewise the Cubs are virtually a lock for their division title too (95.2%). So it might be hard for the White Sox to have a really bad week. (And on the flip side, Cincinnati is still very much on the edge, with only 51.9% playoff odds, so they could be playing hard next weekend against the Twins too.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Jays are 95.6% to win a wild card spot, per Fangraphs. They're 4 games ahead of the next team with only 7 to play.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    That's sort of understandable -- those edge cases are hard to distinguish either way. So it's probably not a conscious bias, like "I've given this batter a 3-0 start, I better be generous to the pitcher on the next one" -- but rather, unconsciously your mind kind of expects a strike given the circumstances, which influences how you perceive those edge cases, even if you don't realize it. It's not necessarily a problem -- the game has been played under these conditions for its entire existence so far, so while it is some uncertainty, the players are mostly familiar with its parameters -- but I understand that it might be interesting to see how individual batters and pitchers would adapt without it. (That's been one of the points I've read about the robo-ump trials too, that is has been calling some strikes that no one expected -- likely pitches that just clip the front or back of the three-dimensional zone.)
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