Objectively, seems like the game 2 SP matchup could be a wash. Valdez 11 G, 70 IP, 83 ERA-, 65 FIP- Berrios 12 G, 63 IP, 89 ERA-, 91 FIP- (If they go Urquidy, he is definitely more of a wild card with the small sample, although he was quite effective last postseason.) Frankly, McCullers vs Pineda seems close too. Pineda has better rates this year but in a much smaller sample. McCullers has been pretty consistent when healthy, and has been excellent in the postseason (while Pineda has never pitched in the postseason). Even Greinke may not be that far off Maeda — by FIP-, they are about equal, 64 vs 67. (ERA- is 94 to 60, though.) Greinke almost won WS game 7 last year. Twins will obviously have the home field advantage, and on paper have the better offense and bullpen. SP was actually a strength for Houston, even without Verlander — Twins may still hold an advantage there too but less than the other factors.