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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Marlins-Cubs postponed today, so we're guaranteed at least one game on Friday! And it will be Sixto Sanchez vs Yu Darvish, so that should be good. Otherwise, the Thursday slate has four games, all on ESPN: 11 AM (CDT) CIN-ATL 2 PM CHW-OAK 6 PM STL-SDP 9 PM MIL-LAD The 2 PM game is the win-or-go-home White Sox - Oakland matchup. Dane Dunning vs Mike Fiers. White Sox are all we have left representing the AL Central...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I listened to that one late. Too bad Cleveland couldn't at least force a game 3.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Baldelli brought in Littell first out of the pen in the 2019 postseason, then Duffey and Stashak. Didn't touch Rogers or Romo until late in game 3. Baldelli seemed to over-compensate this year by using Rogers in both games (as well as Duffey and May). He also used Stashak first out of the pen in our elimination game, for 2 innings. And Clippard (definitely a vet) was not used at all. I don't know if there will ever be an ideal bullpen usage pattern that everyone will agree with, so I'm not sure how much to blame Baldelli for these moves. Ultimately the team needs to wake up its bats in the postseason somehow.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Hill and his incentive-laden deal doesn't seem like it was too much trouble in 2020, and could be even less trouble in 2021 if he's not coming off surgery.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Hitting tanked last year too. Not as bad as this year, but only 7 runs total in 3 games. That seems to be a common theme of these exits after 2004: 2 runs in 2 games in 2020 7 runs in 3 games in 2019 4 runs in 1 game in 2017 7 runs in 3 games in 2010 6 runs in 3 games in 2009 7 runs in 3 games in 2006 That's 33 runs total in 15 games. In that span, the number of times we've scored: 1 run: 5 2 runs: 5 3 runs: 2 4 runs: 3 5+ runs: never
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Not entirely hindsight: I wonder if winning that game Sunday, and drawing the White Sox in the first round, would have been a way to break the streak. Not that the White Sox are necessarily worse than Houston (although they are less experienced), or that facing them would have been easy, but they would have been a familiar divisional foe. It would have felt less like a playoff game, and more like a few extra regular season games.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Poppen's not released -- just DFA'd. He could pass through waivers like Littell, and then we could get at least another season out of him. Will be interesting to see if anyone claims him this week.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    2020 still counts, and you are correct. Kirilloff needed to be added to the 40-man by November of this year anyway, as did Rooker and Colina.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with both of those points. Like I said, I would rather have Buxton and Donaldson in the lineup than the alternatives. But I don't agree with the other poster that having them would have been a "huge help." Buxton and Donaldson had a 124 and 131 OPS+ this year, respectively. Here are the MLB qualifiers who did that: 32 Xander Bogaerts 33 Ian Happ 34 Jeff McNeil 35 Robbie Grossman 36 Jake Cronenworth 37 Donovan Solano 38 Chris Taylor 39 Kole Calhoun 40 Tommy La Stella 41 Michael Brantley 42 Mark Canha 43 Kyle Lewis 44 Alex Verdugo 45 Wilmer Flores 46 Willy Adames Some good players, some good seasons in that group, but nothing that suggests to me the difference between beating the Astros and what actually happened. Especially given Buxton's streakiness and Donaldson's age -- I suspect an experienced team in the playoffs would not use the same approach that our AL Central opponents used in pitching to Buxton earlier this season, and while still solid, Donaldson's days of putting a team on his back with exemplary performance seem like they are in the rear view mirror. Of course, it's all subjective, so I don't doubt others will disagree. But it seems too simple and rational, in the face of the irrational postseason performances we've seen from the Twins time and time again.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The distinction between earned vs unearned runs is rarely as binary as their names suggest. Part of good pitching is leaving a literal "margin for error" and in modern MLB that generally means missing bats and limiting walks. Romo failed to miss bats, giving up contact in all five at-bats (league batting average on balls in play is around .300, so giving up contact to 5 consecutive batters could easily produce 2 hits like we saw -- even on "bloopers" which are actually pretty hard to defend, as opposed to getting batters to hit it into the ground or pop it up). And of course Romo failed to limit walks by walking the 6th guy -- a guy who finished the series 0-for-7, had a 71 OPS+ for the season, and the bases were loaded so he had no place to put him anyway. No margin for error, as it was, due to his failure to miss bats earlier in the inning. There have definitely been worse relief performances, but this was not an effective one, and was disappointing to see from the guy we trusted with the 9th inning in a tie playoff game.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    We played a below .500 team this week. And we were swept, at home, while looking completely and thoroughly lifeless. I know Marwin misplayed a ball or two at third yesterday, but I don't think it factored in any scoring. Our outfield play was fine. Nothing against Buxton and Donaldson, all things equal of course I would rather have them in the lineup than not given the alternatives. But I really doubt their presence would have made much difference vs the Astros this week. Neither is immune to slumps themselves -- notice that Buxton was 0-11 with 7 Ks in his last 11 PAs *before* the HBP vs the Reds, and Donaldson was 4-for-30 in his last two postseasons. And they and their replacements still reached base 4 times in these two Astros games. Small sample size, but after losing the White Sox series, Kepler and Rosario were actually our two most productive hitters the rest of the season -- not Buxton and Donaldson. How did that work out in the playoffs? Those two were 0-for-12. Arraez had a fantastic return vs the Reds, then was 0-for-6 against the Astros. For a normal team, with normal performances, it seems perfectly rational to consider the effects of missing players. But a team hitting .109/.246/.145 (.392 OPS) across two games, favored at home, doesn't tell me they were two bats of Buxton and Donaldson caliber short on doing meaningfully better.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Astros pulled their starters early just like us and swept us on our home field. Yankees pulled their starters early in the 2019 ALDS and swept us. The Nationals didn't pull Scherzer and Strasburg early in 2019, and the Astros/Yankees haven't pulled Cole, but those are $200-300 million pitchers. This isn't even about what philosophy best wins championships -- we can't even win a single game. Gardy had no love for spreadsheets but got us started on playoff losing streaks; meanwhile, the more-Moneyball-than-Moneyball Rays went to the WS back in 2008, swept their opponent this week (pulling their SP at 80-some pitches), and have never been swept in a postseason series. Even the Moneyball-originating Athletics -- while failing to win playoff rounds thus far (aside from sweeping us) -- generally have no trouble winning an occasional playoff game: Oakland has played 9 playoff series in the 21st century, and only been swept once. The 21st century Braves, losers of 9 consecutive playoff series, have never been swept in that streak. Besides, what does pulling your starters and inning or two early have to do with a team batting line of .109/.246/.145 (.392 OPS)? I'm not sure there is any simple explanation, unfortunately.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I wish it were that simple, but the Astros did the same thing with pulling their starting pitchers, and they swept us. Yankees did it in our ALDS last year and swept us too.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    We weren’t the first team to beat Beane’s Athletics in the postseason, and we weren’t the last either. (We are the only ones to lose a round to them so far, though.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Brewers starter Suter walked 5 in 1.2 innings, Brewers down early 3-0 to the Dodgers. I know everyone says that even a bad team can beat a great one sometimes in a best-of-3 but I don’t see it happening here.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Cleveland showed some life — Ramirez knocked home 2 to tie at 6, but then Gary Sanchez (.147 AVG this year) hit a wind-aided 2 run shot to put the Yankees back up, 8-6.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    None of the other former Twins in Tampa’s pen (Curtiss, Drake, and Slegers) made an appearance this series, although they didn’t have that much opportunity — Snell pitched 5.2 and Glasnow 6 innings.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Did the hitters actually wear the robes at the plate in this series? That might explain their performance, as I imagine that robes would inhibit the swing. (Although I understand that robes benefit other kinds of “swingers” — perhaps the Twins confused the two.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I don’t think Twins fans should be dismissing anyone as a “DH only player” when the franchise largely had a gaping hole at the spot after he left, at least until 2019 (with the exception of the limited games Thome was able to play in 2010). Ortiz wasn’t a sure thing for the Twins, but he was among the best hitters in baseball in the second half of 2002. And we decidedly to go solely with Matt Lecroy going forward instead, to shave about 3% off our payroll. And while it is rumored that Ortiz was among those that tested postive in supposedly anonymous 2003 survey tests, MLB instituted non-anonymous penalties for failed drug tests in 2005 and Ortiz never failed a test through the end of his career in 2016.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Although unlike the titular loser of that song, our Twins are exactly who they appear to be.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    With a 28 man roster, and a best of 3 series, there are undoubtedly going to be a few spots that you won’t — and shouldn’t — need, even with a well-curated roster. But yeah, like in most things the past few days, the Twins clearly didn’t help themselves with their roster decisions.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Ryu got rocked in game 2 as Toronto was eliminated today, so what do I know...
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Tuned in tonight just in time to see Cleveland blow a 4-0 lead, now 5-4 Yankees in the 4th inning. Could the third place, road team White Sox last the longest of the AL Central teams in the playoffs?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually just like competitive postseason baseball, no matter the teams — although a good underdog story is a nice bonus! (In that sense, the annual Twins elimination is often a relief! It is usually among the least competitive series, sadly.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    There was some item in the media speculating that the Astros would know his stuff, but I doubted that. Alcala generally only came in when we were behind in the regular season, so I think he just deemed less essential than long relief options Dobnak and Odorizzi. (Without the runner on second extra innings rule, long relievers may have more value in the postseason.)
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