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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Not just the AL Central -- the NL Central is also on the verge of postseason extinction. The Cubs, Reds, and Brewers were all eliminated without winning a single game. The Cardinals and Padres series is tied at 1-1, with the deciding game starting now...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    With the Cubs loss to the Marlins this afternoon, 6 central division teams have been eliminated already (plus the Blue Jays). Cardinals/Padres result pending...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The Marlins-Cubs (Sixto Sanchez vs Yu Darvish) tilt starts now, on free TV (ABC). Cardinals-Padres deciding game tonight at 6:08 PM CDT on ESPN.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure this works? I suspect chaining only the high points of win expectancy together, while ignoring the low points, would make any random streak seem much more unlikely.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Roughly maybe? Here's a document from 2012 to give you an idea -- although I am sure the numbers have changed since then: http://www.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/bhb/eng/mlb-0f0-pension-print.pdf There's both a fixed component (page 114) and a variable component (page 112, table 7), and I'm guessing the variable component will be worth a bit more in ~20 years when Poppen would be eligible to receive it. But you're right, 43 days alone in one season isn't worth all that much at age 45. It's a bit better if you wait until age 62, although nothing close to a living income. Fortunately for Poppen, he earned quite a bit more service time in 2020 (maybe 68 days, after prorating?), so I think he's past 2 quarter-units and very close to 3 now, plus he may even qualify already for the higher-3-year-consecutive-average-salary fixed benefit (table 9, pg 115). His benefit at age 62 may soon or already be about $1k a month or more? (I wonder if Poppen would be amused to know that strangers on the internet are trying to estimate his pension benefit!)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Bauer is definitely a guy to watch this offseason. I suspect it was easier to say "I'm only signing 1-year deals" when he was stuck in the arbitration process up until now, as opposed to the multiple multi-year offers on the open market which he'll get for the first time this winter. He could always look for a multi-year deal with an opt-out too, which is not uncommon.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to Seth's list, another great source for Rule 5 stuff is the Roster Resource pages now at Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins See the "Options" column. If it says "R5" that player is already Rule 5 eligible, otherwise it may say the date of the first draft when they will be eligible (so look for "Dec'20" to see who the first-time eligibles will be this winter).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Even though they didn't play, 2020 still counts for those minor leaguers towards Rule 5 eligibility and for minor league free agency.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Pension credits are awarded for every quarter of a season you play. 1 season service time is considered to be 172 days, so it takes 43 days to first qualify, and every 43 days you accumulate after that (max 172 per year) increases your benefit. 10 years is indeed the max benefit, and the benefit figures I've seen for that are $68k annually if you start drawing at 45, or $220k annually if you wait until 62. 1 day of service time, however, does entitle a player to lifetime health insurance. If you reach 10 years service, I think your spouse is also covered for life too (Doug Mientkiewicz hung on for 10 years, in part for this reason). In any case, Poppen had 38 days service time in 2019, so his 2020 service time was pretty important in this regard!
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Could the AL Central teams organize their own losers bracket now? NIT tournament?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    And 0-4 at home. Run differentials: OAK 12, CHW 11 NYY 22, CLE 12 HOU 7, MIN 2
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    What about the risk of overinterpreting from a 2 month season? Especially between two teams playing completely different schedules and having different incentives to win (Houston didn't have much of a third place threat chasing them from behind).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Hendriks hit 100 on the gun, the day after throwing 49 pitches, and struck out 3 in a row after a leadoff single. A’s advance in the postseason for the first time since 2006.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Former Twin alert! Liam Hendriks warming up as the A’s hold a 6-4 lead in the 8th inning.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Rodon loaded the bases with 2 walks, and reliever Foster walked in TWO runs. ChiSox now trail 4-3, and have used 6 pitchers to get through the first 4 innings. Oakland is on their 3rd pitcher, but it's starter Frankie Montas so maybe he can give them some length.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Hill is at an age where some kind of incentive deal is the standard expectation going forward. Maybe not quite his 2020 deal but not a real high guarantee either. I also suspect he didn't mind the postseason roster decision -- he started the final game of the season when it still meant something, and wasn't going to be available for the first round. It doesn't seem like much of a slight.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe the Yankees could offer us their backup catcher for our starting CF. If it's not an elite prospect (and I suspect it wouldn't be), I am not sure the Twins would need the prospect more than they could use the dice-roll on Buxton themselves the next two years.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    And not just MLB minimum salary, but also service time to improve his pension benefits.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Crochet left the game after a few slower-than-average (for him) fastballs. Eloy Jimenez left the game too, after running out a base hit. Sox led 3-0 at that point, down to 3-2 after an Oakland 2 run HR. Carlos Rodon in to pitch now, in the bottom of the 4th...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Update: Poppen claimed by Pittsburgh.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    And it worked! (So far) https://twitter.com/Brandon_Warne/status/1311750992560562180?s=20
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. A championship, through 4 rounds of playoffs, is still something. A division championship, on the other hand, is mostly meaningless in this shortened season...
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    What value do you think they can get back for him right now, though? It's not like his inconsistency and unavailability are unknown to the rest of the league. And he ended the year with a concussion, and only has 2 years control left.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you mean, you didn't care if they went all the way or not? I could see caring less about a championship this year, but I can't see why one would prefer *not* winning a championship this year. It's not like an asterisk title would preclude you in any way from competing for future titles -- especially if the asterisk doesn't engender enmity as the Astros could tell us.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    This sounds less like the Twins should eschew shifting, matchups, and pitch selection on defense, and more like the Twins need to find ways to beat those things on offense. I doubt the Astros eschewed those things on defense, although they looked a little different due to their personnel (they have a worse/shallower pen, hence the piggybacking starters).
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