Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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GAME THREAD 9/25/20 Twins vs. Reds 7:10 CDT.
Otto von Ballpark replied to Diesel's topic in Archived Game Threads
Rays hold the tiebreaker over us, so the Twins would have to win out while the Rays lose out. -
GAME THREAD 9/25/20 Twins vs. Reds 7:10 CDT.
Otto von Ballpark replied to Diesel's topic in Archived Game Threads
Congrats, rookie! I hope the Twins win to commemorate the occasion! -
The Perfect Length of a Baseball Season?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Whammy's topic in Other Baseball
I don't think this would boost regular season national TV broadcasts much, if at all. It's just the nature of the sport -- the best pitchers only throw every 5 days, and the best hitters only come to the plate 4 times a game and only have a big impact once every couple of games. Shortening the season from 162 to 124 doesn't change that. (And MLB seems to be doing just fine in the recently announced national TV deals, so I'm not sure there's room to leverage much more.) And while getting rid of April games won't affect attendance too much, I think those games still make a decent amount of money through season ticket / suite sales and also local TV. Expanded playoffs will generate more revenue, but they don't need the rest of your plan to do that. -
GAME THREAD 9/25/20 Twins vs. Reds 7:10 CDT.
Otto von Ballpark replied to Diesel's topic in Archived Game Threads
This is the "MLB Game of the Week" on YouTube, so you can watch it live there: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nr28Kkb8Q5E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nr28Kkb8Q5E -
I just realized there is a worse outcome than the Twins losing to the Yankees this postseason: the Twins losing to a different team, while the White Sox or Cleveland defeats the Yankees. (Shades of 2006.)
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I hope they do robes beyond just home runs, to maximize their hokey impact. Is there a chance MLB could step in, and say that sharing robes violates some COVID-19 protocol? If so, could that make the power of the robes even stronger? Hopefully the robes succeed where "Bombas" and dance parties have previously failed!
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By single season Twins free agent fWAR, Phil Hughes 2014 actually beats Cruz. Odorizzi, Morris, and Tewksbury are right around him too. Among position players, Cruz prevails. #2 is Willingham, then Davis, Thome, Hudson, Molitor, Pagliarulo...
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I'm not sure what kind of postseason role Colina could have, being called up so late. Even Graterol didn't see any meaningful innings in last year's postseason, and he was up for most of September.
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There are no options after the regular season -- in fact, all optioned players are automatically recalled at the end of the regular season. After that, you're either just on the postseason roster for a particular round, or floating around the alternate training site. So I suspect they could option anyone they want on Sunday, but name them to the roster on Tuesday? Sounds like Rich Hill has been announced as the Sunday starter anyway -- I suspect they'll take him out pretty early (like a tune-up) if the game doesn't mean anything for seeding. But yeah, they'd need to make 28-man spots at least briefly if they want a look at Odorizzi and Arraez too.
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If he was was placed on the IL, I'm not sure he'd be eligible to be replaced on the postseason roster next week? I know in a normal year, a player has to be eligible to return from the IL (meaning, spent at least 10 days on the 10-day IL, or 45/60 days on the 45/60-day ILs) in order to be replaced on the postseason eligible list. Even with 10 days on the 10-day IL, they'd need to find another way to get Colina on the 40-man roster then since Bailey would still be occupying a spot. So even if he was hurt, they'd probably rather DFA/release him now.
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I'm not sure why they are calling it a DFA. All they can do with Bailey at this point is release him, and he won't be eligible for the postseason with any other club, so he is effectively done for 2020.
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I know you're joking, BUT, the Yankees may not have enough control over that anymore. If Toronto loses 1 more game, they are locked into the #8 seed regardless of what the Yankees do (thus guaranteeing the Yankees no worse than the #5 seed). Would have been more of a battle if NYY had lost all 4 to TOR this week, instead of just 3 of 4. They would have been tied overall and Toronto would have the tiebreaker advantage too.
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Homer Bailey DFA'd. Edwar Colina added to the 40-man and active rosters.
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Wow. Edwar Colina has been added to the active roster in his place. An option for the playoff pen?
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It is still mathematically possible, but that is the only way. A single Tampa win, or a single loss each by Minnesota and Oakland, and Tampa clinches the #1 seed. Tampa is hosting the Phillies, so it seems exceptionally unlikely that they will lose out. Tampa is 17-9 at home, and the Phillies are 9-16 on the road -- and just lost 3 of 4 to the last place (albeit reigning champs) Nationals.
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A Cleveland loss would also erase that chance, and their game tonight starts an hour earlier so it will likely conclude before our game too. But it's against Pittsburgh, so Cleveland is expected to win, and anyway, go Twins!
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You're all missing the big incentive here: draft position! If we lose out, we might be able to move up from the 28th overall pick next year to the 24th.
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At least a few of those NL opponents are also fighting for playoffs spots (like MIN vs CIN, and NYY vs MIA). The big head-to-head battle appears to be MIL-STL for 4 more games, including a doubleheader beginning today at 4:15 PM CDT.
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This might be the most relevant magic number for the Twins right now. 1 more Twins win, or 1 more Cleveland loss, and the Twins will be hosting a playoff series at Target Field.
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You're not alone in that take, but with the extreme unbalanced schedules of 2020, these determinations may not be so clear. Yes, Houston got 7 games against Texas, the worst record in the AL, but for example, teams in the AL Central got to play Pittsburgh, the worst record in the NL (Twins had them for 4 games). Houston also had to play 7 games vs LAD and SD, both of whom currently have better records than any team on the Twins schedule. I won't dispute that Houston is probably weaker than the 3rd place team in the central, but they might actually be better than Toronto despite a slightly worse record -- B-Ref's "SRS" (Simple Rating System) puts HOU at 0.0 and TOR at -0.3. And straight W-L record wouldn't necessarily be any more fair -- a really good top-to-bottom division would cluster around .500, while an average-ish team in a worse division could pad their W-L record to look better.
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That seems about right, but I think Toronto is 5, 7, 8. (They can't finish 2nd unless they pass NYY, at which point it would be impossible for HOU to catch them too.) But 1 more loss, and TOR will be locked into the #8 seed. Another close "magic number": 1 more win for TB, or 1 loss for each of MIN and OAK, and TB is guaranteed the #1 seed.
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Not quite -- they are still even in the loss column and Oakland holds the tiebreaker over the Twins, so Oakland controls its own destiny for the #2 seed. If Oakland wins out, the best the Twins or any AL Central team can be is the #3 seed. Of course, some here have suggested that the Twins may prefer the #3 seed (and facing the Astros in the first round) over the #2 seed (and facing either Cleveland or Chicago again).
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I think an overlooked aspect of 2006 — and I am glad you pointed it out — was KC sweeping 3 from Detroit at the end — in Detroit! 62-100 KC! And even the individual games seemed so unlikely — game 1, KC trailed 5-0 and came back to win 9-7 in 11 innings. Game 2, KC scored 7 runs off Detroit in the top of the 1st, held on to win 9-6, game 3 Detroit led 6-0 after 3, and 7-4 in the 8th inning, but lost 10-8 in 12 innings. KC was a true, out of nowhere spoiler. Compare that to the current situation, Cleveland isn’t perfect but has leading Cy Young and MVP contenders, and this series was played in Cleveland. No one would have predicted a 4 game sweep, of course, but it was undoubtedly going to be a challenge for Chicago. The games have had drama too but few in-game collapses from the White Sox — their top of the 11th inning runs in game 2 was the only time in the first 3 games where the White Sox even held a lead over Cleveland. And they only held a lead for two half-innings in game 4 too.
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I hear what you are saying, but at the same time, I like postseason baseball and I am genuinely excited to see all 8 AL playoff teams face off with each other next week. It is different than pennant races of old, but it has the potential to be very entertaining in its own way. That said, I may not want to see this exact playoff format again next year, presumably following a full season.
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This is pretty good so far, although in addition to 2006, the 2009 Twins were 3 games back with only 4 to play. That was wild! (After having been as many as 7 games back earlier in September.) 2008 was close too — 2.5 back with 6 to play, although we didn’t seal the deal in game 163.
