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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Assuming we close out the win tonight, Twins magic number for home field over the Yankees is down to 2. White Sox will be even with us in the loss column, so they still control their own destiny in the division. But the pressure is on!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    My life the next two weeks:
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Maeda/Berrios/Pineda officially confirmed:
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You are right. In that case, both MIN and NYY would have 23-17 divisional records, so the tiebreaker would move to the next criteria: last 20 games divisional record. There, the Twins would be 12-8 and the Yankees 11-9. (Had they been tied in that too, it would move to last 21 games divisional record, then last 22, etc.) But if the Yankees win just one of these next 2 vs Toronto, they will have the better divisional record and hold the tiebreaker over the Twins (although they may still trail the Twins, which would render the tiebreaker moot).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    My guess is that if Sunday's game is meaningful -- can win us the division or home field -- then Hill would start it. Although even if it's not meaningful, I suppose Hill could start for an inning or two as a tune up for a bullpen role during the wild card round. (Could see Odorizzi, Bailey, or even Dobnak follow him, as well as any other relievers who need a tune-up.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Clevinger leaves the game after 1 inning for San Diego due to an apparent injury (after having this start pushed back due to "biceps tightness").
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, the NL wild card round begins a day later than the AL round, so even Friday starters this week will be able to pitch game 1 on regular rest in the NL. I think Cincinnati moved up Bauer so they can *make* the playoffs -- they are in an extremely tight race and playing a direct competitor in Milwaukee, so tonight's game effectively counts double toward their playoff chances compared to this weekend's games vs the Twins. Plus, Bauer pitching tonight also leaves open the possibility of using Bauer again on Sunday on short rest, or out of the pen. Probably a mini-version of how the Brewers used C.C. Sabathia late in 2008 before he left as a free agent. (Mini compared to Sabathia's workload and his frame )
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct, and that is how the Twins are setting it up now. But before that was announced, just extrapolating that last turn through the rotation, it would have been Pineda before Berrios.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    And some of those Chicago Blackhawks teams were pretty bad but made the playoffs anyway -- the NHL at that time had only 18 teams in the whole league, and 12 of them made the playoffs. So the Twins current streak is arguably worse.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Dobnak started on short rest a couple weeks ago! (Due to a doubleheader.) But yeah, in modern MLB, virtually no one uses starters on short rest outside elimination games, so I don't think Rocco's record up to this point means much in this regard. And I too don't think he'd start someone on short rest if he had a good alternative -- for example, I don't think he'd use Maeda on short rest if one of Berrios, Pineda, or Hill was available on full rest. But right now, there seems be a pretty bright line after our top 4 starters, pending what Odorizzi, Bailey, and/or Dobnak might show before then.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    With a 28-man roster, there is no need to leave Rogers off the roster, even if you don't want to trust him in key spots. There is no roster crunch. Just take the current 28 man roster. If you want to activate Arraez, you can deactivate the third catcher (a third catcher seems especially like overkill for a best-of-3 series) or Wade. If you want to activate Odorizzi or Dobnak, you can deactivate Bailey.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs odds update! Twins division odds up to 30.3% after last night.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, there are 3 scheduled off days between the wild card round and the start of the ALDS. So Maeda-Berrios-Pineda could start game 1, 2, 3 of both rounds on 5 days rest each (which even gives us room to tolerate a rain out during the wild card round). Hence, no reason to leave the 4th starter (Hill) off the wild card round roster -- he can be available as an emergency starter or in relief. (And you should choose someone to start ALDS game 1 who you would be willing to start again on short rest in a potential game 5.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe, but only in an emergency in the second round, I think (like a SP getting sick or injured). They could use their top 4 on normal rest for everything except a potential game 5, which would be winner-take-all -- and I suspect they'd rather just start Maeda on short rest and empty the pen if it comes to that. The third round might be more likely to require a 5th starter -- if we're not facing elimination in game 5, we could roll out a 5th starter and then have Maeda back on normal rest in game 6. Not to get ahead of ourselves, of course!
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Odorizzi is ineligible to return until Sunday; Dobnak is ineligible to return until Saturday (unless someone goes on the IL).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Y'all are acting like Homer Bailey is waiver wire fodder. He was a league average SP for a whole season in 2019, for a team in a pennant race after the trade deadline, including 2 strong starts vs NYY. With no spring training this year, he held the Cardinals to 2 runs in 5 IP. Even with his most recent absence, I doubt he is that much less likely to beat the Tigers tonight than any other Twins SP.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    You will still have that option, even if you give a few innings to Bailey tonight. Why not let them compete, instead of dismissing one without an audition? Dobnak can get some innings yet this weekend too (since he's ineligible to pitch tonight). And you may need BOTH Dobnak and Bailey, if Odorizzi is unavailable. This playoff format could really test SP depth.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That would have been an option too, but whoever isn't starting in the first round (presumably Hill?) doesn't need to start this weekend, and in fact might benefit more from a relief outing, if that will be their role in the first round.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, 28 man roster, no limit on pitchers vs position players. Keep in mind, round 2 is potentially 5 games in a row with zero off days. Round 3 is potentially 7 games in a row with zero off days. We may want 5 SP for those series -- even if Bailey isn't in our top 5, it's a good idea to have him ready in case of emergency (and he might be in our top 5 depending on Odorizzi's status). You may want a relief option who can give you more length for those series too -- an early exit could really decimate the bullpen.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    An expected transaction delayed -- Arraez is still out:
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    If so, what are the odds Dobnak is his driver today? There is light rail between the two downtowns. Maybe Metro Transit could rebrand it as the "AAA shuttle".
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    True -- Twins relievers have seen the second fewest inherited runners. (Cleveland has the fewest.) Although I'm not sure that's a bigger factor than the score and inning, in determining Stashak's leverage. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2020-reliever-pitching.shtml#teams_reliever_pitching::12
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    TouchEmAllGuy is correct -- passing the A's doesn't really mean anything by itself. If we also pass the White Sox and win our division, passing Oakland too will have us face the #7 seed instead of #6. I think it may also gain us "home field" -- meaning, bat last in game 1 -- if we met Oakland in a later round, in the bubble? At least, that's how I presume they will determine "home team" in the bubble.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The innings eating component is notable, with Odorizzi out and Dobnak optioned, although we could pitch Maeda/Hill/Pineda/Berrios the next 4 games, just like we did for the last turn through the rotation, and Maeda/Pineda/Berrios would still be in line start games 1-3 of the playoffs. Inserting Bailey tonight doesn't hurt, but all it does it give Maeda an extra day of rest now and 5 days rest before playoffs game 1, as opposed to "normal" rest now (4 days) and 6 days rest before playoffs game 1. The more important start to ensure the playoff rotation will be Sunday vs the Reds, and I suspect we could see Bailey again then too, and/or Odorizzi and Dobnak.
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