Otto von Ballpark

I have tried to be very clear about the 86%, no intent to mislead. It is the number of games Mauer starts, at 1B or DH, while he is on the active roster. If we are carrying another DH/1B anyway who starts the rest, which is what we did with Morrison and what we are doing now with Austin and what we could do with Sano, what does it matter how the 1B starts are divided up? You don't need a third 1B on the roster, and indeed the Twins haven't kept one (aside from wanting reps for Sano over there, which as you suggest could be a separate consideration). Adrianza didn't start at 1B this year until the front office was readying to punt (July 14) with Sano still in the minors and Morrison on the DL -- it wasn't because of Mauer. (FWIW, Mauer started that game at DH, and Garver was on the bench, as was Astudillo and Grossman. I am not sure exactly what was going on that day, but I don't think you can really fault Mauer for Adrianza starting at 1B. Belisle and Astudillo both pitched that day too, so maybe it was something in Molitor's coffee. ) Mauer's health time on the DL should absolutely be a factor in the decision whether to re-sign him, but it really has little to do with causing a short bench. His replacement at 1B can take his roster spot when he is on the DL. And the team can be more aggressive about putting him on the DL when he is day-to-day, if they haven't started that already. Now, if you want to acquire a new starting DH who doesn't double as a 1B, that could be an issue with a Mauer pairing. But it would be just as much of an issue with a Sano pairing, as he's not starting significantly more than 86% of the games at 1B either. Likely the same for Austin.

2 things: 1. I think it can be overstated. That extra year of control is clearly less valuable now than at previous points in Buxton's career. (Same for Sano too, which I suspect is why they didn't try to option him earlier this year than they did.) Maybe the extra year is still valuable enough on its own, but I think we should keep that relative value in mind -- there is clearly not the same imperative to securing the extra year now as there was, say, back in Buxton's rookie year. 2. This was addressed in the earlier thread, but for those that missed it: seeing Buxton in September and securing the extra year are not mutually exclusive. The Twins still have a minor league option on Buxton, which they could use for ~29 days in 2019 to achieve the same thing. He'd be up before May 1st. Frankly, if he is healthy, Buxton needs reps, not rest. At least when high-level reps are available, and he's about to get 4+ months of offseason rest anyway. My plan would be to play him in Minnesota after the AAA season ends, but also plan on someone else being the opening day CF in 2019 while Buxton gets some extra reps at AAA to open the season. We need to prepare for the possibility that Buxton won't be the 2019 answer in CF, just as much as we should want that extra year of control.

That is a reasonable alternative to Mauer for sure, but it doesn't really change the composition or usage of our bench either. You still need a starting DH and a utility infielder, same as the Mauer plan.

If one player starts 86% of the time when active, and the other player starts even more -- I don't see how there is a roster crunch. It is effectively the same as having a full-time 1B and a full-time DH. Having Sano as your 3B, who you also want to get starts at DH and 1B, makes it even moreso. I'm not suggesting a strict platoon either, although if you rest Mauer for 14% of starts, you can certainly try to time them vs LHP.

Don't you think "what else are ya gonna say" would apply to the Mauer situation too? There is really no benefit to publicly disclosing their offseason/2019 plan for Mauer right now, so I don't see the absence of any such comment as conspicuous at all.

This is what I was thinking too. Mauer is starting 86% of games that he is on the active roster this year. He can be a starting 1B/DH, paired with another starting DH/1B, and if he gets hurt, he goes on the DL and you call up someone else. It doesn't really cause a roster crunch. But to put Mauer in a backup/bench role most definitely would. That extra player couldn't just come up when Mauer was on the DL, he would have to be here all the time. Reminds me of the Kennys Vargas years -- if there wasn't a starting 1B or DH job available, he really just cluttered the roster. Fortunately we were able to send him to AAA.

Cuddyer brought back Berrios as a comp pick. Kubel... Luke Bard, who hasn't turned out but he was a pretty high pick. Perkins is about the only guy in that list who would have brought back anything. I looked into it awhile back and found Soria was a decent comp, and he did return Corey Knebel. But we didn't have an asset to land an Addison Russell or Anthony Rizzo, and I think Arrieta and Hendricks might represent more coaching/development achievements than trade achievements (although both aspects are involved). Should we have gotten more from Meyer and May? Or targeted different players in trade?

Magill was an honorable mention in MLBTR's best minor league signings among relievers: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/the-best-minor-league-signings-of-2018-relief-pitchers.html

Here you go! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aQdU1L6CIA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BT_MODis138

Forsythe had a 78 wRC+ and .115 ISO at home with the Dodgers, and a 79 wRC+ and .076 ISO on the road. https://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=7185&position=2B&splitArr=&strgroup=career&statgroup=2&startDate=2017-04-03&endDate=2018-07-30&filter=&statType=player&autoPt=true&players=&pg=0&pageItems=30&sort=-1,1

That's a little harsh. Just looking at last year's champs, the Astros claimed Will Harris off waivers at age 28. Magill may not turn out that good, and even if he is the front office still needs to find more and better relievers, but Magill still may be worth a look right now.

His 4.05 ERA is exactly MLB average for relievers right now. 5.21 FIP, mostly due to the HR, but still a 4.58 xFIP when normalizing the HR rate.

Not so sure. Assuming we are talking about the Baseball America award, the last guy to win it without playing in AA or higher was Buxton in 2013, and before that Andruw Jones in 1995. (And before that, Dwight Gooden all the way back in 1983.) I'd guess Kirilloff, as a corner player in high-A, would be a longer shot in any season. He's had a great year, but usually there is somebody who has a great year at a higher level and/or up the middle defensively (or on the mound).

Andrus can opt out this winter, but he probably won't, given his health/performance this year and a deep infield FA market. (He had done well enough in 2016-2017 to make it a possibility, though.)

Thanks as usual for the write-up, Tom. 7 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings probably meant a few mistake pitches. And probably a few mistakes by Oakland batters in not getting more runs, earlier.

Sure, but is that causing a short bench, which has been the claim in this thread? Even if Mauer was an iron man starting at 1B, we'd still need someone like Morrison or Austin to start at DH. If we were an NL team, Mauer not starting often enough at 1B would be more of a problem for roster construction. For an AL team, I am not sure it matters all that much.

Well, my post said "out of the lineup" not off of first base. You are correct that he is spending time at DH too, although that doesn't appear to be causing a short bench situation either.

In fairness to Mauer, he hasn't been out of the lineup multiple games every week this year -- he was on the DL for 25 games. When he has been on the active roster this year, he has been starting at a 140 game full season pace. (Plus another 11 pinch hitting appearances.) Obviously, he still missed those 25 games, but we were able to replace him on the roster for them. He hasn't been the cause of short benches in 2018.

I think what he means is, he doesn't want to see a placeholder at any position. Which the subject of this thread (Forsythe) would represent, in his opinion.

I have no idea about Lowrie's or Oakland's preference, but if history is any guide, there absolutely could be a big money difference -- Oakland is always pretty constrained in that regard. And the debate isn't just Lowrie vs Forsythe. This might be the deepest FA middle infield market I can remember. No reason to think that Forsythe is the best option right now, until we see signs that his power is back and/or other options are off the table.

I don't think age necessarily caused Forsythe's decline, but he is at an age where is is hard to come back from any decline. I don't know how you see him now as closer to the Tampa player than the Dodgers player. The power is still gone, and he's not going to continue being an above-average hitter without it. And if Twins coaches can't get the power to come back in this two-month audition, I am not sure we should be too optimistic about it coming back in 2019 with us either. I should say, I am not opposed to bringing Forsythe back for 2019, but I would want to see that power come back here in 2018 first, or I am going to look a lot harder elsewhere.

Jay wouldn't be on waivers -- he would just be available in the Rule 5 draft. But the order would be the same anyway, and Baltimore has been pretty aggressive with Rule 5, and that was before their 2018 collapse and trades.

Good point. Reed has improved his K rate recently, and has been quite good -- opponents batting only .205/.288/.288 for the season, and only .105/.190/.132 over the last 28 days. I have no idea how that will translate to MLB, but they could easily DL Addison Reed, and 60 day DL Belisle, and call up Jake Reed for a look.

Even in jest, maybe a September promotion wouldn't be bad for Arraez. I am not even sure I would want to rely on Gordon as an injury replacement in early 2019 either.

And Griffith's frugality. Carew immediately got a massive pay increase when he went to the Angels.