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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Roster Resource also says yes, Alcala will be Rule 5 eligible this winter: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ Celestino will be Rule 5 eligible the following winter (so, after 2019). Edit to add: from the other trade, the pitcher Duran is also Rule 5 eligible after next season (2019); the two outfielders after 2020.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    There does seem to be an issue with trade timing. They have all day to make trades, how do they manage to time them so they are shorthanded for a key game? Especially in the bullpen, when Rodney was gassed and we knew Lynn was starting and Belisle has been garbage vs the Red Sox. Should the team just have a AAA reliever travel with them, for the week leading up to the deadline, ready to activate at a moment's notice? I don't think there is any rule against that, maybe they can't sit in the dugout or pen while inactive.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Belisle, Twins career vs Boston, now has given up 13 runs in 4.1 innings (that's 13 outs).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it helps to throw terms like "childish" around without that specific context. Could you please use the quote function if you want to respond to something like that specifically? I don't want the whole discussion framed on those terms.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think SD or myself is acting in that way, and I would appreciate a more civil discussion.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    But we're talking about baseball, as fans. It is all about fun. And there's a perfectly valid, logical case that gunning for Cleveland at full strength the next two weeks is more fun than collecting more prospects. Likewise, there is a valid, logical case that we can stock some more prospects who could help down the road without significantly affecting our meager chances in 2018. I just don't like one as much, personally. The difference is inherently a matter of taste.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I loved the adjective, don't hold back on more! I could get behind that this makes it easier to acquire Odorizzi or Garcia types. (Not that it's prohibitively difficult to acquire them otherwise.) But I wouldn't call those "impact" players/trades, although they might be useful at times.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    We've been over this. Miami could have surely dealt Realmuto by now if a package of mid-tier prospects was all it took. And if they did decide to do that in the future, they would have a dozen or more offers in addition to the Twins. There are ways to justify this Escobar trade, but it just doesn't seem right to claim that it meaningfully moves the needle on that kind of deal. Note I didn't object to Tom's original post (too much, anyway). This does give us more pieces to trade for other players. Just doubtful for "impact" trades like Realmuto.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I am sure that's based on their projections too. Where did they have Cleveland preseason? The Twins are obviously a long shot, down 7 games. But down 7 against a flawed Cleveland team and 10 head to head left, behind Berrios and Gibson... well, it doesn't feel like 1%. We've got some control here. Not a ton, down 7 games, but more than 1%.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    SD Buhr, I love this article. I just realized earlier today that the Twins were likely pushing Berrios back a day to face Cleveland, at home. That got me excited and looking for tickets. Gibson would be facing them too, and we'd be missing Kluber and Clevinger. Not looking past Boston, but I wanted to go into that series at full strength. Very different feeling now. I've spent years poring over prospect lists, I want to enjoy a wider variety of baseball fandom experiences, even if it's a long shot playoff chase.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Is Sano even ready? I thought we were supposed to trust the process on him. Plenty of room for him to come up and DH too, if he is in fact ready. (Or DH Escobar and put Sano at 3B if you want him in the field. We didn't need to unload Escobar to do something with Sano.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't get this (the playoffs part). If the Twins catch the Indians, they are probably playing pretty good baseball, I don't see why they couldn't be competitive in a short series.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Lewis quality? Not really. The poster specifically mentioned trading for impact players, adding these 3 minor leaguers doesn't really move the needle on that possibility.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Just like we're dealing from Littell, Moya, and Watson now to help in 2018! Wait...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    But what does that have to do with trading for impact players like Realmuto? That costs an impact prospect like Lewis. This trade doesn't add an impact prospect like Lewis. Are we meaningfully more likely to deal Lewis after this trade? (I hope not.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if this is fair. That's using Fangraphs projections, which have been pretty wrong on Cleveland so far. Weighting more to "season to date stats" gives us a 9.1% chance.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I like the word "Realmutoful" but I don't think this is true. Impact players are traded for quality prospects, not quantity.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    No problem! I just got it from B-Ref's league starting pitching page, see the column "100-119": https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2018-starter-pitching.shtml It has definitely been falling the last couple years. 2013: 46% 2014: 45% 2015: 42% 2016: 38% 2017: 34% 2018: 30% Although part of this is also the new "opener" / "bullpenning" strategy -- relievers starting games are guaranteed to fall short of 100 pitches. Tampa Bay, for example is down to 21% from last year's 47% -- although even putting them at last year's rate would only bump the 2018 overall league rate up to 31.5%. Not sure if any other team is doing it nearly as much as Tampa. Also of note: Gibson's start last night was just the fifth 120+ pitch start in the entire AL this season. The NL also has 5 such starts in 2018. (2017, the AL also had 5, the NL had 13.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. And with the recent market, you might have a fair shot at Gibson accepting the QO and getting him back on that one-year deal for 2020. (But on the flip side, if the market keeps his deal below $50 mil, the draft pick if he signs elsewhere would probably only be a ~75th pick rather than ~35th.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, this comes across as pretty rude. I did "half the work"? Did you do any? % of starts at 100-119 pitches: 2008 AL 43%, Blackburn 15% 2009 AL 45%, Blackburn 36% 2010 AL 51%, Blackburn 23% 2011 AL 49%, Blackburn 31% 2012 AL 44%, Blackburn 16% But you may have a bright future in politics.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    In 2008, Blackburn only reached 100 pitches 5 out of 33 starts, none more than 108. Only one looks particularly taxing -- 102 pitches for 4.2 innings against the Yankees. In 2009, it was 12 out of 33, but it's not like he was laboring in them -- he never topped 111 pitches that year, he threw at least 6 innings in all of his 100 pitch starts, and he threw at least 7 innings in 8 of those 12 too. (Twice he went the distance with 107 and 109 pitches.) Spread out as well -- no more than 2 in any single month. 2010 was when Blackburn first started struggling -- 5.42 ERA -- but he was hardly overworked. 6 starts out of 26 with 100+ pitches, none greater than 110, and all of those pitching into at least the 7th inning. 2011, the 127 pitch complete game was the outlier. No others greater than 110. 9 out of 26 starts at 100+. He did have 4 of them in May, but none appeared too taxing (pitching into the 7th twice, the 8th once, and the complete game). Very difficult to pin his downfall on overuse.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh yeah, forgot about Mejia. I guess they might want to push Berrios back a day to face Cleveland. By the same token, it looks like we will miss Kluber and Clevinger, although we'll probably get Bauer and Carrasco (and Bieber?).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I was no fan of that thread, but explanation != apology
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Why is the starting pitcher still TBA for Sunday? It's Berrios, right?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Also Mientkiewicz!
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