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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano will at least return in September when the minor league season is over, assuming he is healthy.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler is out of options. (I think he was eligible for a 4th option last year, but I think that goes away after the year even though we didn't use it.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    This is the latest in a very frustrating sequence of pitching transactions. 1. Signing Belisle 2. Optioning Romero after a bad start from Odorizzi, and not even using the demotion to limit Romero's innings 3. Optioning Mejia after a bad start from Lynn (after Mejia wasn't too bad in Chicago, especially considering the conditions), and basically ensuring Mejia would miss at least the next 2 turns of the MLB rotation 4. Recalling Littell for pen duty when he has never relieved and he hasn't been particularly great this season 5. Now optioning Moya despite the fact he has been great at Rochester and in his first game back in MLB and he is rested, just because you need yet another starter and you can't part with Belisle I am under no illusions that a different sequence of transactions would have us back in the playoff race or anything, but this has been a really inexplicable way to run the club.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Lynn probably needs a good rest of July to possibly get a Huascar Ynoa type. Maybe a Littell/Enns if we eat the salary. Pressly only has one more year of control (2019). He'll make a few million and he's been inconsistent for a long time, so it's hard to peg his value.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't mean attitude, sorry. I meant coming in with men on base, maybe not having as much time to warm up, etc. Less predictable usage. Could be a factor for an older player too. If I was a team specifically looking for a setup man, I'd probably look at a few other options before Rodney.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    And Moya recalled to take his place. Moya, in turn, might be demoted on Thursday for Slegers to start. Can't say it's been an inspiring last few weeks of transactions for the Twins. Really not clear what the plan is for these pitchers.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Gibson had been worth 1.6 fWAR / 1.8 bWAR in the first half. If he duplicates that in the second half, and then repeats it in 2019 with -0.5 WAR for aging, he could produce ~4.4 WAR. At $8 mil per win, that would be worth $34.4 mil. His remaining salary is $2.1 million this year, plus arbitration next year which could be $8 mil coming off a good season. So his net value could be $34.4 minus $10.1 or roughly $24.3 mil. Looking at the Yankees, Justus Sheffield is a 55 FV pitching prospect at Fangraphs, which they valued at $22 mil last year, so it's not far off. Of course, assuming that Gibson has it all figured out is a pretty big assumption. There is a lot more risk with Gibson crashing than, say, J.A. Happ, who has been a consistent 3.5-4.5 bWAR performer for the last 3.5 years. (Plus he's left-handed, if they prefer that.) If Gibson is for real, though, he does have the extra year of control. But if the Yankees could deal a lesser prospect like Adams or Tate for Happ, they could potentially deploy Sheffield in the 2019 rotation themselves and save $8 mil towards the luxury tax next year too. Probably what I'd be looking to do. And nothing is too urgent for them -- they largely have a playoff spot locked up, and the bulk of the wild card sorting will occur after the deadline.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It has been a long time since Rodney has had setup experience. If I were an acquiring team, I would be a little worried about how he'd adjust to the role. There are enough relievers on the market that he probably wouldn't be my top priority.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    What price is "good enough" for you to trade Rodney? Could you find any examples from past deadlines? There's a lot of reliever for nondescript prospect kind of deals... Obviously Sano and Buxton could help, but I don't think we "need" them to contend next year. Per B-Ref, would could be 2.5 wins better this year just with an average bullpen. We could be gain another win or 2 just from Pythag / BaseRuns luck. That's like a .500 record without any improvement in the lineup or starting rotation, which is usually enough to keep one in the mix for the 2nd wild card if not the division. Keep in mind "contend" is a much lower threshold than clear favorite or anything like that. I don't think we want to be too reckless about selling just because we won't be anyone's favorite in 2019.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not "suddenly", no, but I think there could be effects. If I'm targeting a Royals reliever next summer, I'm probably less willing to increase my "best" offer to them (or even make my "best" offer to them) if I feel like they undersold Herrera this summer. If a few teams feel the same way, it quite possibly depresses or at least delays his market. Unless you're actually getting something you want -- a prospect you care about, or playing time for a player that is genuinely blocked -- it certainly doesn't help you to deal just to make a deal.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Definite no to Drury, probably no to Tate as well. Probably yes to Sheffield (even if I think some of his prospect ranking might be Yankee hype), but I don't think the Yankees offer that. The same reasons we'd want to deal Gibson (age, career performance) are the same reasons the Yankees probably wouldn't want him at that price.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    There are also a lot of relievers being sold at the deadline. I don't think relievers tend to get the most return, although there have been a few exceptions -- studs like Chapman and Miller, of course, and I guess Matt Capps way back in the day. I wouldn't expect any of the Twins current relievers to fetch more than, say, Chi-Wei Hu circa 2015, or Tyler Watson circa 2017. Rodney's extra year of control might be more valuable to the Twins than to a lot of acquiring teams. For as cheap as he signed last offseason, and as old as he is, and as little non-closing experience as he has recently, his extra year is probably less valuable overall than most.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't mean a qualifying offer, just a potential one-year re-sign. Depends on a lot of factors, of course, but I imagine the odds decrease if we deal him.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think if you carry that too far, you will get lower returns. There's a reason teams generally don't trade every single one of their expiring contracts, even when they are out of contention. You dilute the market, weaken your future negotiating leverage, etc. Take Dozier for example. Seems unlikely to return, but Gordon seems less likely to be ready by opening day 2019, even with a few months experience in MLB this year. He has a 70 wRC+ at Rochester. There's not an obvious decision either way. If we're close enough that a marginal win could still be useful in 2018, maybe we'd rather keep Dozier and hope for a hot streak. Or just look for signs that Dozier may not be off the cliff, and retain the inside track at keeping him on a 1 year deal for 2019 while we ease Gordon in. Take Rodney. We actually have a cheap 2019 option on him. Given our suspect pen, we might want to pick that up, if the trade return isn't particularly great (and it probably wouldn't be, Chris Paddack notwithstanding).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking back at our 2017 deadline, it definitely looks like Enns was a near future DFA, and Littell was probably someone the Yankees didn't want to invest a 40-man spot on either. Maybe the same for Moya, Arizona has a very good pen and had probably identified better ways to use the 40-man spot than a fringe reliever (specialist?). We really only got Tyler Watson as a non-fringe 40-man guy, and he doesn't appear to have advanced at all in the past year -- K rate has regressed, and he's still in A ball. Still a year away from Rule 5 consideration, but he probably doesn't get you much at this deadline. Likely less than Brandon Kintzler in All-Star form.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The prospects that teams want to trade will often be their fringe 40-man / Rule 5 eligible guys already, meaning it would also cost us a roster spot to try to keep them through the winter and beyond.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Pujols is doing all right at 1B so far this year. 0.5 bWAR versus Mauer's 0.6. Like Mauer, he's better off at 1B than DH as long as he can provide decent defense. Likewise, Kinsler (1.2 bWAR) is pretty much equal to Dozier (1.3). Escobar could potentially help them at 3B, maybe Rodney in the pen. Gibson would definitely help but I don't know if we'd want to trade him.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    And I thought the current Adopt a Prospect forum involved too much commitment!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Why couldn't it be coincidence? Escobar had a .427 OPS over 38 PA in the same time frame (June 22-July 1) in 2017. He has an ample track record to suggest that his early season hitting was unsustainable.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the mistake is assuming that Lynn was likely to return a quality prospect before this start. Yeah, he was on a decent run (although his previous start didn't end well either, and he still has yet to complete 7 innings in a start this season), but he generated little interest last offseason, and I don't think those teams were suddenly going to be particularly forgiving of his slow start. Best case, you were already probably looking at a Jaime Garcia type return for Lynn at the deadline. He could still fetch that, depending on how the rest of the month goes, if the acquiring team needs salary relief, etc. But if he has a middling month here, we might be lucky to unload him for any salary relief at all, maybe in August?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    In that case, he should have brought in our designated "to hell with it" pitcher Belisle earlier.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Still, that doesn't mean you order that second intentional walk and leave Hildenberger out there that long.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Two of them were intentional walks, which now means zero pitches. So 24 pitches to 7 batters. I didn't see the inning, but I agree -- he let 3 runs score in a tie game, so we're now trailing by 3, and have nobody out with runners on second and third -- how do you order an intentional walk there, for another free baserunner? And leave the same pitcher in? And after a sac fly and another walk (non-intentional), still leave him in? It was like we gave up by leaving him in, but simultaneously tried to over-manage to keep the deficit at 3...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I read that Ervin is restarting his rehab assignment tomorrow (Saturday), so I expect he could still be in play for the August trade period.
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