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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe we should just share a team with Tampa Bay, like some have proposed for Montreal? If we could merge the current Twins and Tampa rosters, I'd consider it!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Berrios is now at the same service time level as Nola and Severino when they signed extensions last offseason. There was an article here comparing Berrios to them at the time: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32297-article-what-might-a-jose-berrios-contract-extension-look-like/ Nola got 4/45 with one option year (at $11.75 mil net after subtracting the buyout), and Severino got 4/40 with one option year too (at $12.25 mil net after buyout). Note those figures both include the option buyout in the guararantee. So your Berrios proposal could similarly be listed as 4/51 with two option years (I guess $23 mil net for the first one including the 2nd year buyout, then $18 mil net for the second one after buyout). The extra money might be enough to get the second option, but on the other hand, those guys might have taken a little less to get their freedom sooner, and Berrios could choose that too. He's not old, but signing over control of your first 3 free agent seasons is not something players take lightly either! Edit to add: Severino was almost a year younger than Berrios is now. Nola was only a month a half older, which I found surprising as he was a college draftee.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    You really do need to read the whole thread before posting! But Romero and Gonsalves did register at 50 FV Fangraphs prior to 2018, although I suspect that was more "high floor" for Gonsalves (and so much for the structural integrity of that "high floor"!). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-30-prospects-minnesota-twins/ About Romero, they said he "could turn into a power mid-rotation starter or settle near the back of a bullpen." That's not bad, but I think he had more helium hype locally.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    He's not that good *anymore*. That was like, what, 3 months ago?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Scherzer, Corbin, Greinke, Morton -- these guys were essentially acquired as aces by non-Yankee playoff teams this year. Verlander probably too -- he was having a 5 WAR season when acquired from Detroit, although he got even better in Houston. Cole was an ace in Pittsburgh at one time before he re-emerged, better, in Houston. Beyond 2019 playoff teams, a guy like Sonny Gray was similarly acquired as a past and future ace; a guy like Stroman might fit a definition of ace too. Bauer's a weaker candidate, although is 2018 season was definitely of ace quality. And this doesn't ease much Twins fan anxiety because the Twins haven't yet "added" any MLB pitching this offseason. (Granted they did re-sign a couple guys, but re-signs feel almost less likely to emerge as aces since they're not changing coaches etc.?) Jon Gray looks almost like a once-and-future ace too, although somewhat masked by pitching in Colorado. Would be mighty cool to get him in trade this winter...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    The Baseball Trade Values site occasionally features articles, and they had an interesting one recently on pegging Kluber's value: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/inbox-why-is-corey-klubers-value-so-low-on-this-site/
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I appreciate the chutzpah, but in terms of valuable assets, this is more or less Polanco for Arenado, Story, and Gray with some Twins expiring assets tacked on. Just in terms of 2019 bWAR, the Rockies would be giving up 16.6, and only getting back 10.4 (most of that tied up in one player, Polanco). Yes, they save money, but this makes them very likely to get worse from 2019's 71 win season, so why would they bother getting back Sano and Rosario and their two years of control at arb prices?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, although the post to which you were responding referenced Berrios and Graterol as potential aces, as well as possibly Balazovic and Duran. It didn't really name or discuss Smeltzer, Thorpe, or Dobnak. You have to admit, Berrios has better ace potential right now than any prospect name you mentioned ever had. Graterol possibly too (could maybe compare to Stewart on draft day?). Seemed odd to me to bring up guys like Mejia and Gonsalves in response to that. Hopefully that clears up my response.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins Daily Sure Bet: Biggest Twins community around! A lot of hard-working writers and commenters, with new content every day, ranging from traditional to analytical, and from serious to fun. Good community events too. Washed Up: Overrun these days with accusations of being Pohlad Pocket Protectors, or by actual Pohlad Pocket Protectors (take your pick). Too-frequent references to uncomfortable subjects like avian flu and Joy Mays. Gardy nickname would be something weird like "Twins Daily-sie". Community events often promote drinking alcohol, which can be damaging to the body.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    If the above two leads don't help, local baseball authors/publishers may have some insight too, since they have to get images and image rights for their books. I see Stew Thornley is on Facebook, so he should be reachable.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    If I were you, I'd also email the Twins with attn: Clyde Doepner. He's the Twins curator and a really cool guy! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMzXsm5y3jE
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    My first thought was Star Tribune, but apparently they're not allowed to sell photo reprints that include pro athletes in uniform. Still might be worth contacting them, to see if they know any other resources: https://shop.startribune.com/product/photo-print-request/
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    At least two position player starters (Garver and Arraez), one SP, and probably two opening day relievers will still be on minimum salaries next year. With a few more on the way. I assure you, many folks have crunched the long-term numbers here at TD, and the Twins can absolutely afford such a deal right now. We're still quite a bit under our target 2020 payroll, and Marwin and Cruz will be riding off into the sunset shortly too. (And Rosario, May, and Duffey are more likely to ride off with them as they get more expensive, rather than get a meaningful extension.) Now, as you say, just because we have the money available, it's still an open debate as to whether a particularly player is worth that commitment. But I don't think it's fair to suggest we may not be able to afford it in our 5 year outlook.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    You said this: I am confused didn't the Twins have 5 "ace type" pitchers in the minor leagues just a few short years ago (2017 they were 5 of the Twins top 10 prospects). Romero, Gonzo, Jay, Stewart and Mejia. You did say "sarcasm" in that post, but if the sarcasm meant they weren't "ace types" then I'm not sure what the point was. Including projected 3's in "ace type" or "top of the rotation" definitions is watering down the term to near meaninglessness, in my opinion. You're incorrect on rankings -- only Jay and Stewart ever cracked a top 50, among those 5, and both of those were immediately after their draft *and* included high-end reliever potential, arguably more than ace starter potential. And a top 100 ranking is meaningless as far as evidence of ceiling -- guys can be ranked for floor as much as they can be ranked for ceiling. And as I mentioned above, spots 75-100 are more or less interchangeable with 101-125 or more -- sneaking into the back part of a top 100 list isn't much more than a coin flip from being left just outside.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, I think it's even worse than that -- I believe Mejia was 99th or something on BA's in-season top 100 update, which removed prospect graduates but didn't include that year's draftees or new international signings. Probably comparable to a 120-130 ranking on a normal list. Mejia did apparently sneak up to 86 on BP's list, pre-2015. That was a year and a half before the Twinsa acquired him, though, and looks like a bit of an outlier. Of course, being ranked 75-100 isn't appreciably different than being ranked 101-125 either. Edit: found it! Mejia was BA's midseason #91 in 2016, without including new draftees or international signings: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23377-article-nunez-traded-to-giants-for-lhp-prospect/?p=520558
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    1. He still get to winter wherever he wants, regardless of where he signs. Arizona does have the benefit of being his spring training site though too, so that's an extra ~40 days, albeit working days. Otherwise, the difference is usually more like ~90 days, mostly working days, spread over the 6 month regular season (mostly summer, non-school months, where children are a consideration). 3. I doubt taxes are ever much of a consideration with these deals. If the decision isn't made on raw dollars, then it's the factors in #1 or which team is better / provides the better opportunity. If you're talking about matching 5/85 or nominally beating it (5/85 with nothing deferred, or 5/90?), then I agree, it probably wouldn't have made much difference. But I think significantly beating it (5/100?) would probably give most players pause, even after considering the non-monetary factors above, and would give you fair odds to either land the player or force the other team to counter-offer. The examples of players turning down significantly more money are few and far between.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    How are the Twins supposed to compete for potential WAGs against teams from California, Florida, New York?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, like I said, the White Sox bid more for Wheeler. But only about 3% more (they said "more than $120 mil", compared to Philly's $118 mil). That was the only higher offer. Make that 10% more (like $130 mil) and I think Chicago has a real shot, either to land the player or force Philly to counter. Not to pick on Wheeler, but he has no kids, and from what I can tell, his fiancé is 5 years younger than him, and she's a part-time makeup artist who takes a lot of tropical beach trips. I can see him taking $3-4 mil less to go to a better team, but it's not at all clear to me that "staying near her family in New Jersey" would have been worth $12+ mil to them.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. And even if they did take prospects for Kluber, they still have Ramirez, Clevinger, Bieber, Hand... Lindor is available, but only for a high price. This team clearly isn't rebuilding. Maybe reloading?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously there's of lot of subjectivity in prospect evaluations, but I think these are a stretch, and I don't think you're presenting anything remotely close to a consensus here. First Google result for "Tyler Jay draft profile": "Projection: Elite closer, No. 3 starter" https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2486077-tyler-jay-prospect-profile-for-twins-1st-round-pick First result for "Stephen Gonsalves draft profile": "Projection: No. 4 or 5 starter on first-division team" https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1658066-stephen-gonsalves-prospect-profile-for-minnesota-twins-4th-round-pick 2nd result for Gonsalves, a 2017 Twins blog: "MLB Player Comp: Jaime Garcia" https://puckettspond.com/2017/10/20/minnesota-twins-scouting-report-lhp-stephen-gonsalves/ Mejia: "I see a league-average fourth starter." (Fangraphs) "Best case scenario, Mejia stays on track and becomes a slightly worse version of Teheran." (Twins blog) I think it's a stretch to say any of these guys profiled/projected as "top of the rotation" types, without seriously stretching that definition. Stewart's draft profile, from the same site as above: "Projection: Ceiling of a high-end No. 2 starter; potential All-Star; No. 4 starter, dynamic closer floor." Although I think even that eroded a bit by his first full pro season.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    A notable "overpay" and I think they would have had fair odds. The White Sox only bid maybe ~3% more than Philly, and Philly is considered a better team. Wheeler may have preferred Philly anyway, or had a bias against Chicago, but that bid wasn't much of a test. 10% and I think Wheeler has to consider it much more, and Chicago could have had him or at least upped the bidding from Philly. And the White Sox ultimately under-bid on Machado, rather significantly -- $250 mil compared to $300 mil. I think an early $300 mil offer could have gotten him.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    These guys have all played in the minor league circuit, though. They know what "small cities" are like. They know the difference between major and minor league, and Minneapolis is closer to major league like Chicago etc. than it is to minor league like Omaha and Topeka (or worse). Not that there aren't differences, but considering the nature of the sport and the job, I don't think the Twins are at such a location disadvantage that high offers are going to be consistently rejected. Like most teams, they just have to make the high offer if they really want to land some of these players.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure that's really the choice, though -- it's not like KC winning it all is really the reason they suck now. They've primarily just had a bad run of drafting and development most recently, after a nice of run of doing that earlier. They did supplement that with a few aggressive moves (Shield/Davis, Cueto, Zobrist) to help win that WS, but even adding Myers' Odorizzi, and Manaea back to the current Royals club, I'm not sure that gets them back to competitiveness right now. I think the Twins goal should be to maintain better drafting and development, AND pair that with targeted aggressiveness like the Royals did. We're hopefully seeing the former, but still waiting on the latter. And I understand the anxiety while we wait, especially since "competitive every year" without postseason competitiveness feels a little empty...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Romero definitely had some hype, and is a good cautionary tale. The others you list were never really tabbed as having "ace" potential (at least not much beyond draft day for Stewart).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Just to correct this point: Grandal is the biggest FA contract the White Sox have ever given out. It's a little bigger than Ervin's deal, but with inflation, the difference is negligible. The White Sox have been a bit more aggressive that the Twins in the 21st century -- they've had more higher-payroll seasons, plus the big deal for Abreu coming out of Cuba, plus trades for Thome and Peavy and perhaps others. But until they actually land a Machado or Wheeler, they've generally played in the same FA territory as our club. The Brewers are another one that gets mentioned -- they did sign Cain a couple years ago, and have a series of aggressive trades -- Sabathia, Greinke, and Yelich -- but they too have been pretty frugal in FA. Especially in our current position, I'd like the Twins to demonstrate some targeted aggressiveness like these clubs. The most likely form of that will be via trade.
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