Otto von Ballpark

Aren't Romo-level relievers available at that price most offseasons? (Or trade deadlines, for that matter?) Romo himself has been available on 1-year deals the past 3 offseasons, at $2.5-3 mil each time, coming off not appreciably different stat lines / peripherals compared to 2019. It's not a bad thing, but I'm not sure the 2021 option at $4.75-5 mil means all that much.

It feels like some of those folks also expected Bumgarner to do better than 5/85, no? I think Ryu should be able to top MLBTR's projected 3/54, but I'm not sure how much of a boost he'll get yet. (Bumgarner himself got 1 more year, at $1 mil less AAV, than MLBTR's projection.)

I fully admit that ballplayers are human, and as such can have similar concerns and preferences as the rest of us. (How humane of me to recognize that! ) But it's also important to keep in mind that pro athletes are essentially entertainers, like movie stars or music stars, who usually have different life goals and objectives than the rest of the population, often dating back to childhood. Even the most devoted-to-family entertainers will compromise their commitments to family and location for a few months at a time to go shoot a film on location, or go on tour, etc. All in pursuit of their craft, the competition and respect of their peers, etc. -- and yes, even in pursuit of money as well (which is sometimes how the less tangible goals are measured, in part). That kind of mindset and drive predates the 8-figure salaries, and often lasts beyond them too. That's not to say some entertainers can't be different, or have different priorities. But I'd caution against reading about Wheeler's and Bumgarner's choices this winter and drawing too many parallels to our non-entertainer lives -- as both Philly and Arizona were the high or near-high bidder, I suspect those might be more happy coincidences of the market rather than driving factors behind it. If ballplayers were more truly "like us" in this regard, I suspect we'd see some really wacky contracts -- like someone taking dramatically less to go to a non-contender in a desired location, or to play for their hometown team, etc. But we don't really see that. (The areas where we do sometimes see it, much more than in FA contracts, are in retirement/surgery decisions -- the final transition out of the driven athlete/entertainer lifestyle, for many of these guys. Gil Meche, Brad Radke, etc.)

It's a little more complex with Mauer. I think most fanbases will be critical of a player who isn't viewed as earning his salary, even if they endorsed the signing originally. That's mostly a separate issue from whether the team is spending enough in general, which started cropping up in the Twins Target Field era in 2012 and especially 2013 when Mauer was still good.

Cool thing: Prospectus/Cot's keeps a pretty full accounting of the cash and salaries involved in these deals: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/52254/jaime-garcia https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/46537/anthony-recker And since Recker was immediately waived and outrighted to the minors after we acquired him, I think it makes sense to include his salary obligation along with Garcia's in the "cash" part of the deal. That leaves us with $4,524,590 salary for Garcia, plus $301,639 salary for Recker, less $100,000 cash from Atlanta, less the prorated minimum of $184,180 that the Yankees paid Garcia. Total Twins outlay is $4,524,590. So I think this is a fair summary: The Twins essentially traded Ynoa plus $4.54 mil for Littell and Enns. (You could add the one start from Garcia, and 1-2 months of Recker stashed in AAA, to the Twins benefit side, if you want to get technical too!)

I'm right there with you, and the Brewers aren't a bad example for that.

Let's not accuse fellow posters of bad faith over this. There are a lot of moving parts to these deals, and I think these were both honest mistakes. The Twins sent cash to the Yankees, received (less) cash from the Braves, and received a player likely to be DFA'd by the Yankees (Enns). Edit to add: the cash going from the Braves to the Twins was nominal -- looks like only $100k according to this site: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/twins-acquire-jaime-garcia-anthony-recker.html It was reported that the Twins were taking on the rest of Garcia's contract, so I suspect this money was just to help offset Anthony Recker's contract (he was still due about $250-300k).

Mandatory graphic for Romo posts:

Kevin McAllister? He ran the Twins in 1991? Was this some kind of Home Alone / Little Big League mash-up?

I like Cot's as a resource. They also include a little bit different estimate for the pre-arb group. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/ Their Twins 2020-2024 payroll and tax tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXhMYkMxJE1VJvZiNMS1X7OHPFNaIVUjd-m1ZBCzHL4/edit#gid=1520401900 They had us at about $101 mil before Romo, but also before deducting Pineda's salary while suspended. So... 101 plus Romo's 5 minus Pineda's 2.4 = $103.6 mil Maybe they have slightly different arb estimates?

The Brewers signing Grandal was just a one-year deal -- I'd say it's comparable to a few deals the Twins have made the past few years. They've been a bit bolder so far at the "higher end" of FA with Cain, but for the most part, they've played in the same conservative FA waters as the Twins. The Brewers have definitely been bolder in trades, though.

My post didn't say anything about what the Twins *should* have offered, or what Bumgarner is worth. It was about what it would have hypothetically taken to beat a 5/85 offer. You shouldn't belittle any posts as "mediocre message board" chatter at all, much less when they're not even talking about the same subject as you.

$5 mil would represent Romo's highest salary since 2016, which was from a contract he got when he was a closer for the 2014 world champ Giants (2 years, $14 mil for 2015-2016). The last 3 years have been a succession of 1-year deals at 3, 2.5, and 2.5 mil. Obviously, if it's only for one year, being high by 1-2 mil probably doesn't matter all that much. But it does feel a touch high.

Minnesota, but the horse taxes here are too high.

You made the subject exclusively about FA acquisitions. Here's the post to which your responded to begin this tangent: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/35827-front-page-twins-front-office-playing-with-patience-this-winter/?p=942060 I don't necessarily agree fully with that poster, but it seems to be talking about aggressiveness in general, and the Cards have been more aggressive than the Twins, and the trades/contracts for Rolen, Holliday, and Goldschmidt illustrate that.

So Wheeler signed to be close to his future in-laws, and Bumgarner signed to be close to his horses... there's a joke to be made in there somewhere!

Deferred is included in the $85 mil. So he'll get $70 mil during the contract term, and $15 mil after. "Guaranteed" is standard contract parlance and doesn't imply anything about incentives. Usually if there are major incentives (and I'd call $15 mil major in this deal, especially if they are attainable like starts/innings), they would be noted in the reporting by now. Cot's Contracts gets a lot of detail and I suspect we'll see more there eventually.

They have already signed Kepler and Polanco long-term. Hopefully they can extend more soon.

I don't think you read the list: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/35827-front-page-twins-front-office-playing-with-patience-this-winter/?p=942388 You need to address Goldschmidt, Holliday, and Rolen. I don't think anyone cares how the Twins compare to St. Louis in free agent signings that ignores examples like those 3 just because they weren't *technically* free agent signings. Each one was an aggressive trade and contract for a player outside their organization, for which the Twins to my knowledge have zero comparables.

I agree Atlanta and Houston haven't been big FA spenders lately, but "do what it takes to contend" would imply trades as well, and both clubs have shown more aggressiveness than the Twins in that regard. Also in-house extensions too? Plus both franchises have advantages of reputation -- Atlanta dating back to signing Maddux, Houston back to the Randy Johnson trade perhaps?

To be fair, a lot of those same people would also provide some pretty wild info about Philadelphia, or Phoenix.

Via MLBTR: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/details-on-madison-bumgarners-agreement-with-the-diamondbacks.html It seems like a $100 mil could have overcome horses. Or at least made the horses counter-offer.

That's not 30 years, unless you're counting from the beginning of Clemens and Johnson's careers for some reason. Both were great in their 30's within the last 20 years. But I don't even think you have to go back that far. Not sure quite what you mean by "after a big deal" but Max Scherzer has been great in his 30s after a big FA contract. Greinke too. Those are within the last 5 years. Have "literally" 200 pitchers, as good as Bumgarner at age 29/30, fallen off a cliff at age 32 in the past 5 years? Only 200 pitchers have started as many as 55 games total over the last 5 years. It's fair to question how good Bumgarner will be specifically, but he wouldn't be some great historical outlier to be worth this contract through age 34/35. Andy Pettitte might be a good comp? Jon Lester. Cole Hamels. Although he'd also have company if he failed too, like Barry Zito!

A couple things: 1. It appears that Madison Bumgarner does not have any children (although he's been married for 9 years so he could be closer to starting a family than, say, Zack Wheeler, who isn't even married yet). 2. I don't think Bumgarner actually winters in Arizona, at least not exclusively. Looking more closely, I don't think I've seen any mention of a home in Arizona -- I've only read that he has horses there. "Horses" does look like "houses". I've read that he and his wife have a large farm/ranch in their native North Carolina where they live in the offseason -- they are both from North Carolina. It doesn't seem that Arizona or Florida do particularly well with free agents, so I'm guessing spring training home may not be a big factor either. Bumgarner would have some familiarity with Arizona though, which is an advantage, but likely not insurmountable. (As for taxes, I'm sure his agent knows and he must have a financial adviser type too, but frankly I just can't imagine it being any kind of factor for these guys, at this level, relative to a million other factors. Heck, I might prioritize horses before relative state tax burdens, and I've never ridden a horse in my life!)

One figures that the CBA (and "collusion" market) would have been affecting them last offseason too... Martinez would be a great example for the Twins -- he had 3 years service time then just like Berrios now, and he signed for 5/51 plus 2 option years. So he signed away control of 4 free agent seasons! Roughly same age as Berrios too. I feel like if Berrios was willing to sign something like that, they could have come to an agreement earlier, like last offseason.