Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,662

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    How many "established player for established player" swaps do you see at the deadline? Also, if your relief target has a "good track record" they will probably be near free agency anyway. Might as well keep Lynn if he is performing well and you still want to contend in 2018; or, if you are out of the race for 2018, trade Lynn for a prospect and sign your relief target in the offseason.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That seems an even sillier criteria than waiting until the MWL all-star break, at least that gives the kid an honor/experience.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Kirilloff should be going to Fort Myers now, right?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Relief prospects?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The "even if they don't make the playoffs" qualifier seems to indicate league MVP, rather than team.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Andre Dawson, 1987? Robin Yount, 1989? Larry Walker, 1997? Alex Rodriguez, 2003? Giancarlo Stanton, 2017? It's certainly not common for an MVP to come from an also-ran team -- but then again, great players are usually on pretty good teams. The two things are kind of related.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    We can't give him a qualifying offer, players can only get 1 in their careers now. Not sure how you define "arm and a leg", maybe something line Huascar Ynoa or Zack Littell.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    By game score, slash129 is correct. League average is 52. Lynn has hit that mark 7 times, and fallen short 6 times. And he's fallen well short -- closest is only 40, twice, which was 5 runs on 12 baserunners in 6 innings, and 3 runs on 8 baserunners in 3 innings. Those were not against powerhouse offenses either (vs. Tampa and St. Louis, respectively). Subjectively, I wouldn't call those "good starts" even though they could have been worse. Lynn has 5 starts in a row with a game score of 54 or better, though, so it's definitely been trending up. But he's not at a point where his overall performance this season is decidedly a success yet.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure if that's on the player, though -- the team that extends the QO is incentivized to let the player sign elsewhere. Although that incentive has been reduced in the latest CBA -- unless the player gets $50 mil, the comp pick is at best going to be in the range of the pick we sold with Hughes.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    How much do you think it would cost, now?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Escobar is doing great, but he's on pace for ~5.5 WAR. Jose Ramirez already has 4.6 WAR, on pace of 10.4. Where do you think Cleveland would be without him? Then of course there's Trout, and Betts (whose team seemingly doesn't "need" him to compete, but whose exemplary play could very well be the difference avoiding the wild card game).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Trout is signed through 2020, so they have 2 more seasons after this one. So even if Ohtani has surgery, and misses a whole year, they could be reunited for 2020. And Pujols is "only" signed through 2021 so his deal is pretty much irrelevant to the next Trout deal (only 1 year overlap). I still think they have a fair shot at contention this year too -- maybe not for the title, but for qualifying for the postseason. The Mariners lead now reminds me of the Royals lead around the trade deadline last summer, and their current playoff odds are correspondingly overrated.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind the more limited effect of superstars in baseball, compared to other sports. A basketball team or football team with a superstar (QB) and that playoff record would indeed be criminal. Baseball? It's not good, but it's not necessarily bad either. Also keep in mind the Angels can approach this knowing they have the ability and a fair chance to re-sign Trout. They don't have to get too desperate about their "window" like perhaps the Orioles have done.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Once in 9 years? Trout has only completed 6 seasons since his rookie year. I wouldn't write them off for the next 3 postseasons just yet. You are right that the Reds and Orioles haven't been without success, but: The Reds went into a deep, long-term rebuild, and not a particularly effective one (now at 4 years and counting), despite having a peak performing Votto. The Orioles failed to buy out any of Machado's FA years, and have managed to squander their last year of him as the worst team in MLB (and not even due to rebuilding). The Angels have at least been in the contention mix for 5 of Trout's 7 seasons, including this year, and I think they forecast for the same the next two, no matter what harbingers of doom you want to bring. Angels fans are right to be disappointed in their Trout era playoff record, but I'd fire Orioles and Reds executives far quicker than I'd do the same for the Angels.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The Angels were 15th in OPS last year and 6th in ERA. Their closest B- or better prospects per Sickels were both pitchers. It makes sense they would try to add some offense to that group (and they still added the best pitcher on the market in Ohtani). You want to criticize them for signing Cozart instead of Lynn, fine, but it's not a serious, obvious error -- they're both at 0.1 bWAR right now, almost halfway through the season. Lynn would have taken starts from rookie Barria (113 ERA+, 0.7 bWAR in 9 starts), while they need Cozart to take starts from Valbuena (-0.5 bWAR). Again, I don't think they are perfect, they have certainly made some mistakes. I wouldn't say they are doing a great job but I don't think they are doing a poor one either. I get the impression they are an average-ish team / front office, for whom the presence of Trout should elevate them into the playoff race, but that's been neutralized by some bad luck the last few years (and also a bit by the Astros good luck). Worth noting that despite the injuries and underperformance, they would still be in a wild card spot now if not for the very surprising Mariners playing 8 games over their pythag. Now depending on how you define "wasting" a star, I could see it applying to the Angels just because they haven't been able to leverage Trout for the postseason, but if your definition has degrees, the Angels are well above, say, the Reds and Votto the last 5 years, or the Orioles and Machado.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Spotrac is mistaken, or at least unclear. The option value increases at 500 and 550 PA, but it doesn't automatically vest until 600 PA. MLB Trade Rumors had that info, referencing very specific tweets from both LEN3 and Phil Miller: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/twins-to-sign-logan-morrison.html Cot's/BP has it as well, and also includes another detail, that the buyout also increases at 550 PA -- which by definition would require the vesting threshold to be even higher: http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/ And by better options, I meant if the rest of the lineup starts hitting, they could probably DH Escobar more and play Polanco at SS and Adrianza at 3B. Or hopefully Sano comes back, and he and Mauer could take most of the 1B/DH at bats.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Just from their current roster, Heaney and Richards missed virtually the entire last 2 seasons. Tropeano missed a year and a half (and is out again now), Shoemaker missed much of last year and now all of this year, and Skaggs has missed a lot of time too. Ohtani could be out until 2020 now. JC Ramirez looked like a decent swingman, out for the season. Terrible luck with rotation health. Their closer Middleton is also out for the season, maybe into 2019. They're not a perfect team, but they've really gotten burned by pitcher injuries the last few years.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, I think the Angels have assembled a pretty good team around Trout, if not for injuries...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Morrison is definitely disappointing, but with some mercy from the BABIP gods (.218 this season, career mark entering this season was .273), he would have a roughly league average batting line right now, even without the power. Ramirez would need to regain his power to top that, and he's further removed from plus power than Morrison.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Top of the order was due up for the 3rd time vs Romero. And Lindor already had a HR and a single, and Ramirez a HR...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    On the flip side, I don't think 1-for-4 means the player had a good day either. Took a called strike 1 in each at bat. Took 3 called strikes in a row his 2nd AB. Struck out swinging in his 3rd at bat against the same pitcher...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Morrison is currently on pace for 574 PA, and he needs 600 PA for the 2019 option to vest. So you don't necessarily have to make a move with him, and certainly not yet with only 241 PA. If the rest of the lineup picks up, so Morrison is accumulating more PAs, and he's still ineffective -- then you will probably have better options than Carter to take PA away from Morrison.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    With Garver's current BB% and power (or lack thereof), a .250 average is only like a 78-80 wRC+. Could he be worse? Sure. But there's just nothing that is particularly encouraging about performance so far. League average for catchers is a 97 wRC+. Garver is worse than league average in ISO, K% -- I guess his BB% is close. His BABIP is actually a bit higher than average.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Left to right, they are Davis, Vasquez, Wells, Grzelakowski, Blankenhorn, and Diaz.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Ervin is throwing again, at least: http://www.startribune.com/twins-send-byron-buxton-to-class-aaa-rochester-to-get-healthy-and-then-some/485754881/
×
×
  • Create New...