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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    What does 100% mean? If the velocity isn't back, I don't see how you could expect much from Hughes.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Potentially, yes. In actuality? Seems unlikely that all happens, both in terms of health and performance.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins rotation was 19th in ERA last year, 23rd in FIP, 24th in innings pitched. And keep in mind, whatever we might gain from Lynn, Odorizzi, etc. could be partially offset by a loss from Ervin, both through missed time and likely regression.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    When it was reported, that offer for Archer was already 2 weeks old. Now it's probably been a month. With no further movement, and in fact a different trade between the two teams plus the Sanchez signing, I think that Archer possibility is as good as dead for now, until the Twins or Rays massively change their minds -- maybe midseason, at the earliest.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I know his peripherals will be different, but I get kind of a Tommy Milone type vibe in terms of overall results from Mejia. Like, capable of league average performances, but maybe not a ton of innings, and not a guy I'd trust in my playoff rotation. Still useful in the #5 spot while cheap, though.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    No, it looks like this was the only FSN+ game scheduled. There are a handful of others on regular FSN, and one on ESPN: https://www.springtrainingonline.com/2018-minnesota-twins-broadcast-schedule-posted/
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. League BABIP is virtually unchanged. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    But more important than TV, the Twins return to WCCO radio tonight!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The game is also on MLB.TV. 2017 subscriptions appear to be active through February so you can still use it for watching tonight without renewing for 2018 yet (a lot of people wait for the T-Mobile offer or the 50% discounts after a month or so).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    FSN+ is correct. If you get Fox Sports North through your cable/satellite provider, you should be able to log in and watch through the Fox Sports Go site/app.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope he doesn't repeat that achievement in 2018!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    By some measures, but far from all. Odorizzi's 5.02 RA9 last year (ERA including unearned runs) would have only ranked 4th among our 2017 starters (behind Ervin, Berrios, and Mejia). And not very far ahead of Colon (5.18) or Gibson (5.30). And if you look at peripherals via FIP, Odorizzi would fall behind Gibson and even Colon too, into a 6th place tie with Hughes at 5.43, ahead of only Santiago among our regular 2017 starters.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton shouldn't hurt, but note that Odorizzi has already been pitching in front of Kiermaier for virtually his entire MLB career. It's one reason metrics seem to downgrade him, he has had great defensive support.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, they didn't release Dickerson, they DFA'd him. Most likely to force a trade.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    It's tricky, because Sanchez is guaranteed roughly ~$500k. His signing was so close to the Odorizzi trade, that I don't think the two pitchers are seen as mutually exclusive. Even if Sanchez gets cut before opening day and doesn't get the extra $2 mil, he's probably going to consume a fair number of spring training innings which may make it a little harder to sort the depth guys behind him. (And if he makes the team, he's not really "depth" like a pitcher in reserve -- he's actually a front-line guy.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Colon was actually replacement level for us -- I wouldn't be so confident that Slegers and a bunch of AA guys in their MLB debuts could notably exceed that. Not to mention Duffey and return-from-surgery May. And you had Sanchez in your list the first time, and removed him this time. Assuming he is 6 or 7 in our current depth chart, you might be talking about ~15 starts from those "bottom end pitchers" below him -- how much overall staff improvement can we project from that? I'd rather have upgraded ~60 of the regular rotation starts.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The pitchfork mob can be proportionally underwhelming too!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Chief said deeper too, no? Also if the added depth isn't "better", what good is it to be deeper? Gonsalves and Romero were already available last year, the Twins just chose not to use them. Maybe they will be more ready later this season, but their presence isn't much of a credit to the current front office. And It's not altogether clear that Sanchez is going to be a better option than those other guys. Last 3 seasons by bWAR: 0.1, -1.2, -0.8. And we may not have the luxury of keeping him in reserve as a midseason reinforcement, or for a spot start -- his contract apparently calls for us to put him on the opening day roster or release him.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Signing an ace would push our current 1-5 starters down to 2-6. That's probably a better way to improve depth than acquiring more 4-5-6 types. You make it sound like the Twins could only have one ~4 WAR pitcher. Having Berrios add 1-2 WAR would be nice, but so would adding Darvish's ~4 WAR over, say, Hughes/Sanchez -- without costing any prospect capital, and not making us overly reliant on the vagaries of the trade market (and helping us from day 1 of the season rather than day 1 after the trade deadline too).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. Here's a comparison of where we stood on opening day 2017 vs 2018, where I've tried to roughly average bWAR and fWAR. Entering 2017: Santana coming off a 3-4 WAR season Santiago coming off a ~1 WAR season Gibson coming off a ~1 WAR season Hughes coming off surgery Mejia with 1 MLB game Duffey coming off a ~0 WAR season Berrios with 14 MLB games Jorge with zero MLB games Slegers with zero MLB games Gonsalves with zero MLB games Romero with zero MLB games Entering 2018: Santana coming off a 3-4 WAR season but scheduled to miss at least the first month Odorizzi coming off a ~0 WAR season Gibson coming off a ~0 WAR season Hughes coming off another surgery Mejia coming off a ~1 WAR season Duffey hasn't started a game in over a year Berrios coming off a ~2 WAR season Sanchez coming off a ~0 WAR season May coming off surgery, hasn't started a game in over 2 years Slegers with 3 MLB games Jorge with 2 MLB games Gonsalves with zero MLB games Romero with zero MLB games I'd pick the 2018 group, but its primary improvement is Berrios. Still quite a bit of risk, and not a ton of upside -- I guess Odorizzi is a year removed from a ~3 WAR season, but lest we forget, so was Gibson entering 2017.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    14 starts, actually. But in 2017, Odorizzi gave up 4.98 runs per 9 innings against the AL East, vs. 5.06 runs per 9 innings versus everyone else. The AL East was not why he struggled in 2017.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought about typing the same thing, but then I remembered Tampa just traded for Cron and DFA'd Dickerson for no particularly good reason either.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct, Mejia has 1 option year remaining, after using his first 2 in 2016 and 2017.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not saying it is a bad trade today, I endorse it. Just that "Palacios won't play in MLB for awhile" doesn't guarantee this will be a win for the Twins in the final accounting. Odorizzi still has to perform. In your example, trading a 4th round pick for a starter is fine, but if you passed up capable free agents to make the trade... the "starter" still has to perform.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Odorizzi could be 0 WAR, or even slightly positive, and still be a "negative" for the Twins, given they are stopping their search for a better starter with him.
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