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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. What's even weirder is that we managed to sign/acquire 7 MLB players this offseason, and didn't need Kinley's 40-man roster spot (or Vargas's) to add any of them. Obviously we were helped by the slow market, but I don't think we ever expected to return Kinley before mid-March either. And if we didn't like Burdi, it seems like Bard or Chargois would have been realistic possibilities to keep too, even without the benefit of the 60-day DL. Not a huge deal, obviously marginal gains/losses compared to our main offseason moves, but worth noting among obsessive baseball fans. Of course, Kinley could still make the team, if we carry 12 pitchers and Hughes is our 5th SP / long reliever. You are correct. Duffey actually has 2 option years remaining -- he only spent 7 days on optional assignment in 2015, so he didn't use one there. His only option year used so far was in 2016.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually an interesting deal structure for Arrieta -- he can opt out after 2 years, but if he does so, the Phillies can exercise a 2/40 extension.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Kinley would have to clear waivers (albeit with Rule 5 restrictions attached) before the Twins could trade for him and remove Rule 5 restrictions. If he shows enough promise to be worth a trade, another team might put in a claim. Hence these kind of Rule 5 trades are fairly rare. Of course, if he does clear waivers, the Marlins might be cheap enough to deal him for financial reasons (they'd have to pay $50k to take him back).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I know there are some Lynn skeptics here -- would any have preferred Arrieta? Just signed for 3 years, $75 mil with Philadelphia.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Hughes' contract isn't part of my evaluation, but what they decide do with him is. Adding a couple veteran SP is a hair less attractive if they're not prepared to move on from Hughes, and Mejia gets sent to AAA unnecessarily. Not a huge deal, but could take it from an A to an A- in my book. But we'll see how it plays out.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    This is fair. I had them at C+/B- for the offseason after Odorizzi, and B after Morrison, and this definitely pushes them higher. I feel like I should stop short of a solid A until they Hughes decision is cleared up at the end of spring training. It's a tricky situation with the potential to nudge the grade either way.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. It has already been referenced how Bill Smith once had a good offseason of short term deals too. I think the current offseason/team/FO should turn out better, of course, but the question remains, how much so.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    95. 3rd round, but our 4th pick. 75 is the Competitive Balance round, which is protected from forfeiture.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Escobar! He even caught for one inning last year (and the pitcher was Chris Gimenez, no less).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking at potential FA destinations, it's worth noting the teams who have already forfeited picks in the 2018 draft: Milwaukee, San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado. If they signed one of Lynn, Cobb, Arrieta, or Holland, here are the picks those teams would have to forfeit: Milwaukee: #125 San Diego: #83 Philadelphia: #79 Colorado: #96 Other teams with notably low forfeiture requirements: Miami: #88 Oakland: #84 Cincinnati: #81 As I mentioned in my edit to my previous post, the Twins are in a unique position. Like the 15 other revenue sharing recipients, we would have to forfeit our 3rd highest pick, but because we're not in the Competitive Balance Round A (between the 1st and 2nd rounds), and we're not receiving any comp picks ourselves, our 3rd highest pick falls in the Competitive Balance Round B (between the 2nd and 3rd rounds) and is thus protected. So our top pick subject to forfeiture is actually our 4th pick at #95 (albeit technically our "third rounder").
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, we only saved ~$400k from Leach. Enlow cost $1.25 mil over slot. Most of that came from Lewis going underslot by $1.05 mil. We picked 1, 35, 37, and 76 last year. This year, we've got 20, 60, 75, 95. I don't think another Enlow-style overslot signing is in the cards, regardless. This might be the year to forfeit our 3rd pick. EDIT: Actually our 3rd pick is in the Competitive Balance round, which is protected. So we'd be forfeiting our 4th pick, but 3rd rounder, at #95. Last year the slot was $564k.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Aybar won't necessarily be in AAA, he can opt out of his contract if he doesn't make the MLB roster. Also, while Gordon should be in AAA, he's not on the 40-man roster yet, so I don't think he makes sense in a temporarily replacement role (not like Polanco a few years ago, who was already on the 40-man anyway). Honestly why do you prefer Vargas? He's got a career OPS+ of 102 -- I'm not even sure he's worth pinch-hitting for anyone in our regular lineup. Maybe Castro vs LHP? But Grossman is just as good of an option for that. And Escobar would be too, if he is on the bench. And hopefully Garver would be soon too...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think 2/20 is insulting. Moustakas just signed for 1/6.5. (Doogie Wolfson's first report of 2/12 could have been insulting, had it been true!) KC also apparently offered Neil Walker a minor league deal, which would be insulting too. 2/20 seems like it will be in the ballpark for Lynn, at this point. Maybe the second year is the stretch, but I could easily see him signing a one year deal for $10-14 mil any day now. I wonder if the Twins were willing to do that over a one year deal?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Lynn is almost 31, if he's going to bet on himself, it would be a 1 year deal. (Or include an opt out after 1 year.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    They could be including player benefits as part of payroll -- I know they are used for calculating luxury tax. Cot's estimates them at $14 mil per team for 2018, on top of $118 mil player salaries.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Reserve Champion Beef Showman: note that Acuna spent most of last season at AA/AAA. And there aren't many Acuna's around the lower minors either, and even they fail to reach base 60+% percent of the time against a collection of minor league pitchers including many worse than Littell. Obviously it's not a perfect indicator, but frankly neither are the subjective evaluations that filter through the media. I think it's a decent barometer for fans to gauge spring roles, if not a bit of performance too.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Ha, yeah, I was probably too hard on him. At first I was just needling him, but honestly I don't think it reads quite the way he intended either. Taking a look at the spring training save leaderboards for the last few years was a fun exercise, though! I should thank him for that.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If that was your intent with the line "Zack Littell has had a very strong camp including a win and two saves among his outings", I'd suggest rephrasing it or adding this additional context. "Zack Littell has had a very strong camp, albeit against mostly minor league competition as evidenced by his late appearances in games."
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think we've had enough top pitching prospects recently to make this determination.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, B-Ref has Littell's first two outings (they haven't updated for the third one yet) with a 5.8 Opposition Quality score, which basically means he was facing sub-AA quality hitters. I guess that's what happens when you are racking up saves in spring training. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=littel000zac
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to pick on you, Seth, but no one should ever reference spring training saves.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like a recipe for another $100 million offer for Harper or Machado!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Not anymore, they got rid of repeat QO's in the new CBA. Now a player can only get 1 in his career.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Wouldn't he want a one-year deal to do that?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Also better than any of Ervin's 12 previous MLB seasons.
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