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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Presumably Greinke still has the Twins on his no-trade list. Plus. the Astros probably prefer Greinke over Cole for the shorter/cheaper contract too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure it's in his binders, somewhere...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, it's all related. Having a shutdown ace means your team might be more tolerant of a bomba outage. For example, the 2004 Twins won a playoff game behind Johan in NY where our bats were pretty quiet. No guarantees, of course.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I won't wade into the general argument, but I'm not sure about these examples, other than Longoria. Danks was up on opening day 2007, and nothing about Hughes or Zimmermann's timelines stand out.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    By this logic, Keuchel should have done better than Eovaldi last winter too -- but it didn't happen. The market doesn't quite work so predictably. For one thing, Eovaldi didn't have a draft pick attached. You also have to look at supply -- Eovaldi signed the second-biggest pitcher contract last winter, behind Patrick Corbin. Odorizzi may only be ~6th on the SP list this winter. Furthermore, Eovaldi signed pretty quickly last offseason, and the GM that signed him is now unemployed. Add the "World Series hero" factor and I'm not sure it's a good baseline for predicting the market for other pitchers.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, Raley bats left (throws right, though!).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    There wouldn't really have been a way to "not protect Wade" in terms or Rule 5, regardless of what happened with Raley. Wade was added to the 40-man last winter, so you'd have to remove him now to give his spot to someone else, and he'd probably just get claimed on waivers.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure Raley was playing *that* well when he got hurt, at least not in terms of forecasting his future. He had a 122 wRC+ at Rochester, basically the same as his AA performance when the Dodgers traded him (123). And this was held up by a .403 BABIP -- 30.4% K rate, only 5.1% walk rate. A .214 ISO, but in a league with a .179 ISO, that's not notable. It was useful for Rochester, but for a 25 year old corner player, it doesn't suggest much of a future in MLB. Is Raley appreciably more valuable than, say, Daniel Palka a few years ago?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the article. Might also be worth noting Nov. 20 -- that's the day reserve lists (for Rule 5 protection) have to be submitted. So all the prospects that Seth profiled need to be added to the 40-man on Nov. 20, or else they will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft on Dec. 12. (And if they're not protected by the Twins on Nov. 20, they might get traded to an organization that will protect them -- Nick Anderson was traded to Miami on Nov. 20th last winter.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not necessarily about egos -- the most practical way to get the call is by looking at home plate. Everybody is already looking there for the pitch/swing. And beyond relaying the automated ball/strike call, there are immediate related calls too which may still be the subjective domain of the umpire -- check swing, foul tip, strike 3 in the dirt, etc. You are correct that there will need to be some procedures to deal with system failures/errors. I'm not quite sure what that would look like yet, mainly because I don't know what the failures/errors will look like in the finished system, or how frequently they might occur. But a sensible procedure for dealing with them doesn't necessarily require using the scoreboard as auditor.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    A four-second wait for the call is pretty bad, though. MLB average time for a steal attempt of 2nd base is only 2 seconds. I think this will have to come down to play at the MLB level.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Why bother with all of this just to avoid automated balls and strikes?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    You can certainly construct a scenario where Cleveland trades Santana (although it's doubtful that he'd return more value to them in trade than he could provide on the field). They just wouldn't trade him to the Twins, even in a 3-team scenario. Cleveland might re-tool this winter, but they're not going to punt on 2020 enough to strengthen their top rival at the same time. Even beyond Lindor, they have good players under contract for 2020 and beyond.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    No way Cleveland would send us Santana as a salary dump. FWIW, I think Cleveland only owes him $14 mil now (some of the original 3/60 contract was a signing bonus, and some was picked up by Seattle). Plenty of teams outside of our division would take that off their hands, if Cleveland really wanted.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    "Never" is a mighty strong word (both you saying lower revenue teams have never agreed, and Chief for saying never resist trading prospects), but the Brewers have made these deals (Sabathia, Greinke, and now Yelich). The Royals obviously had a few famous examples (Shields and Cueto). Discussed recently, and it didn't work out quite the way Oakland hoped at the time, but their Samardzija moves were a net positive. The White Sox side of the Samardzija trade wasn't so good, but they did well with Peavy a few years earlier. Toronto did well in the Donaldson deal, although less good (but far from crippling) in their Price rental. Detroit did very well in the Cabrera trade, plus all right in deals for Sanchez, Price, and even Upton.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. The team and player are still free to negotiate other deals.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    And Smith could take the QO money this winter, and still be younger/better than Ottavino next winter too. It would be a bit of a risk, but it's also going to be a risk to hope a team gives up big money *and* a draft pick this winter. Should be interesting to see what happens.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be. Of course, Ottavino only got 3/27, which probably isn't better than 1/17.8. And Ottavino didn't have a draft pick attached to him. Smith is better than Ottavino, and a few years younger, so he may find a deal -- but it's not going to be easy in the current environment.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure they'll get too much "value" out of a reliever with a $17.8 mil salary in 2020...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    1. The team and player are always free to negotiate other terms, with no restrictions. 2. Twins can still negotiate if Odorizzi rejects the QO. If the Twins sign him, then no pick is lost and no comp pick is assigned. (And FYI, no one can lose their first pick anymore for signing a FA -- max is 2nd or 3rd highest pick, based on revenue sharing status.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    AJ Cole went on the IL for a "right shoulder impingement" on August 10th to end his season, so I'm guessing there's an injury factor here. Cole cleared waivers back in February 2019 too, so I guess he baseline value wasn't all that high either.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I doubt the Braves spend *that* much this offseason. It's probably just for their internal budgeting. Fans don't like it, but a lot of teams have target payroll allocations each year, and don't carry over shortfalls to the next year. These buyouts lets the Braves use a little 2019 shortfall to help stay under their 2020 target. Probably similar in effect to the Twins front-loading the Polanco and Kepler extensions.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    This is incorrect. Waiver claims are strictly record-based now, not league. (Although league is a tiebreaker if two claiming teams have the same record.) https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3527 "If more than one club makes a claim, the club with the lowest winning percentage (regardless of league) ... is awarded the claim. If two clubs with the same winning percentage make a claim, the club in the player's own league is awarded the claim." The only recent time where league had waiver priority over record was during August trade waivers (I guess to block moves by your league competitors?), but those waivers no longer exist. Outright assignment waivers, like in Wisler's case, have been strictly record-based for some time. So Wisler went unclaimed by everyone but MIN and possibly NYY, LAD, or HOU.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    You're still on the MLB roster (and collecting MLB service time) when you are on the IL or rehab, so I suspect your tax liability just follows where the MLB team is playing, as usual. More interesting would be the tax liability after a player is released while on a guaranteed contract (or outrighted, like Rusney Castillo in Boston).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow, the write-up doesn't even mention Gibson's health or the way he ended his season. I wouldn't trust the conclusion if they ignore that important context. Kiley McDaniel has him projected for a 3/45 deal, which seems impossible at this point (if it was possible, he'd probably get a QO today). The crowd prediction seems a lot better at 2/20, which would drop his rank to around 21st, rightfully behind Odorizzi and Pineda. Although even that seems like it might be generous -- all signs point to a one-year deal, maybe with an option? He's just not terribly trustworthy after that finish.
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