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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    According to Wikipedia, Toronto's population of Japanese Canadians is perhaps closer to the Japanese American population of major California cities, than to that of Minneapolis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Canadians_in_the_Greater_Toronto_Area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_large_Japanese-American_populations Both cities have a non-stop flight to Tokyo. The Toronto Blue Jays have previously employed 4 Japanese players, as compared to the Twins' 1 (and that player's Twins tenure was more infamous than famous). Munenori Kawasaki played in Toronto for 3 seasons; Tomo Ohka signed there as a free agent twice, albeit towards the end of his career. It's possible Toronto has a bit better inroads in Japanese baseball than the Twins at this point? The Blue Jays right now also offer less pressure and a clearer path to playing time. But like I said above, if the Twins interest was around a 2 year, $6 mil deal, that's not particularly strong interest either. It may not take much to dissuade them from going higher.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Those would be valid reasons that the Twins wouldn't be interested in the guy -- but as noted in the first sentence of the article, the Twins were reported to have interest in him just a few days ago. Once interest is established, and the guy signs a very modest contract, it's fair to wonder what happened in between. Although if there interest was in the range of this contract, it's also fair to question how strong the interest was to begin with!
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Mostly straight up, that's probably what it would take. I could also see a package involving the next tier (Balazovic, Duran, Jeffers). Although I kinda doubt Musgrove is worth that for the Twins right now. And the Pirates likely want to bet on him, at least one more season, to see if he can break out and fetch that kind of return before they settle for something less.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets, even with WS aspirations, would be open to dealing Syndergaard, just like they floated at the 2019 deadline, but it certainly wouldn't be for a package like this. Right now, it would take Mackenzie Gore, or Buxton plus Lewis -- something elite. Of course, I don't think 2 years of Syndergaard is probably worth that at this point, so effectively, he's not getting traded.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rendon example is pretty weak, in my opinion. Did anyone even match the Angels offer? I don't doubt he likes the "LA lifestyle" but saying something good about your new city/employer after signing is standard operating procedure -- even if it's true, it doesn't really offer any insight into the player's decision making process. If the Twins had thrown $250 mil at Rendon and signed him, I'm sure he would have said something nice about the midwest too, like he enjoyed the TV show "Fargo" or something. I bet even Ricky Nolasco withheld his contempt for the state when he first signed here! Wheeler has a bit better case than that, although I'll remind that he signed with the better team, well above projections for his contract, and for only 2-3% off the high offer. He may really value game night with his future in-laws in New Jersey every Friday night, but the market certainly did not test his commitment to that principle above simply money and playing for the better team. Yankee fans apparently spit on Cliff Lee's wife in the 2010 postseason, so that certainly didn't help their bargaining position that offseason! FWIW, both the Phillies and Rangers offered a higher AAV than the Yankees too, so it's not like Lee had zero financial incentive to spurn NY.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I just saw the Athletic article which laid out some details. I'm still not sure I believe he actually left money on the table -- that could easily be a pride/exaggeration thing -- but he definitely seems to like it there.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    This proposal fails at baseballtradevalues.com, rather badly: 75-40 I'm open to the idea that the site is over-valuing Syndergaard -- but then again, likely so are the Mets. And that's a pretty wide gulf to bridge.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I was about to post that too! $70 mil was right around MLBTR's predicted contract for him too (4/72), so it seems he did have some reasonably strong monetary concerns or he probably would have jumped at that.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think backloading is evidence of too much sacrifice, for a veteran player with a lot in the bank already. Although it's notable and kinda cool, if Arizona can do something with the extra cash this year.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. The author makes a pretty compelling case that Bumgarner really preferred Arizona, so I don't question that... but I just can't shake my skepticism about two 5/100 offers, at this point. (Although the existence of such offers could help support some of my posts in another thread. )
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, I'm not a subscriber yet... but what specifically does it say about him turning down more money? The author couched that in a "maybe" on Twitter, so I'm not sure if there was actually an offer, or if it was just an expectation (which has been reported before, and elsewhere).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I kept meaning to link MLBTR for the Twins interest in Japanese starter/reliever Shun Yamaguchi, but apparently I was too late -- he's signed with the Blue Jays for 2 years, $6 mil apparently: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/blue-jays-reportedly-pursuing-deal-with-shun-yamaguchi.html
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    That's what I've said. I was just curious why folks were specifically endorsing the option year. I guess I'm just neutral on it.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    How is it obvious? The Twins didn't offer $15 mil more. The Twins didn't even offer the same as Arizona. As far as I know, Bumgarner took the top dollar offer, and Wheeler took an offer from the better team within 2-3% of the top offer. Neither signing offers much evidence on non-monetary, "non-baseball" factors.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I never denied the Cards have a greater ability to spend than the Twins, so I am not sure of your source for that accusation. I just think the "ability gap" should be a lot closer than the trade and contract results of the two front offices to date. If you think we can and should sign someone for significantly more than Jason Castro's contract, or trade a top 200 prospect, then you probably agree with me. It's not an extreme position.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Why top 20? I said I respect the Cards aggressiveness including (among other things) trading a top 50 prospect for Goldschmidt, as compared to the Twins whose current FO has yet to trade a top 100 (maybe even top 200?). I didn't say anything about any top 20 prospects. It seems an unnecessary and confusing qualifier to inject into this discussion.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    No, the buyout is $250k. And a buyout isn't any good on its own, it is just a slightly deferred part of the guarantee. An $X buyout is only a good deal if you think the player is worth more than $X above his salary. Do we think Romo's services are worth more than $5 mil in 2020?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Objectivity means not pushing conclusions about a trade before you even know who was traded. Conclusions should be derived from the facts, not the other way around. As for the rest of your post, I have no idea why you keep bringing up prospects the Twins *haven't* traded, in a discussion about prospects the Cardinals *have* traded. If you think the Cards are more aggressive in trades because of their revenue, good for you -- I just think the Twins have room to be more aggressive than we've been, even within our revenue.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, yes you should! The TD gods blessed/cursed us with emoticons for a reason!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Why not look up what they traded before offering conclusions? For Goldschmidt, Carson Kelly was a top 50 prospect, at catcher. I wouldn't call him a spare part. Luke Weaver had graduated but was a recent top 50-70 SP prospect who had shown some promise. Another piece and a competitive balance pick was in the package too. For Holliday, Brett Wallace was #27 by BA at the time. Plus two other recent 1st and 2nd round picks. For a trade deadline rental! They re-signed him after the season. So no, I don't think the Twins could make a comparable package without giving up Lewis or Kirilloff.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    He already took a QO to stay here, when he didn't have to. Doesn't necessarily mean he wants to sign here long-term but he's probably more likely than most FAs. And in general, limitations of FA recruiting probably don't apply equally to extensions for current players. Odorizzi has already made arrangements to live/travel here, so it's just a matter of continuing those, rather than changing anything.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Wheeler got that on the open market, while Odo is still a year away from that point. No one else can bid for Odo's services right now, and he's risking injury and regression in the next year before he gets to that point. So I'd expect some discount, relative to Wheeler's deal. I'm not sure how much, but a 5/100 deal doesn't seem out of line. (There's also the matter of whether 5/100 replaces his current 1/17.8 deal, or is on top of it -- the latter case would also mean Odo would be a year older when the deal starts than Wheeler is now.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    How did you figure the $500k? Do you just mean, you expected him to get $4.5 mil on a one year deal this winter? I thought there was at least a chance he'd settle for $2.5-3 mil again like he has the past 3 offseasons, or maybe only bump up to $3.5-4 mil. In which case, the "dibs" for 2021 would be costing you more than $500k. Not that it really matters, it's a pretty trivial amount either way -- I just didn't find the option year to be too noteworthy.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously the Rangers could use Sano (so could a few other teams, like the Twins ), but I don't know who they'd give up. baseballtradevalues.com doesn't suggest any obvious matches that would be of interest to the Twins.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    You're just lucky I didn't use a clip from the end of the full sketch: https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/snl-digital-short-the-curse/n12690
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