AlwaysinModeration

Also sometimes the sacrifice ends in a hit, error, or walk, too. All of the permutations are covered in The Book pretty well, and the math almost definitively says don't do it. And I have been an adherent to that view forever, and vocal in my frustration by Molitor's bunt-happy ways. I'm just trying to play devil's advocate. Many the intangible "for the team" positivity associated with three or four players manufacturing a run through small ball, and the act of scoring at all....has psychological benefits to the team and individual players that somewhat offset the small loss of overall run scoring expectancy.

I think we shoul all agree that the mantra for this postseason (which absolutely starts with the Wild Card game, and is absolutely to be celebrated) is: "Over? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Bulgarians built Rome in a day? Hell no!"

I don't think I've seen you either, Brian. Or at least, I'm not going to admit to it. I don't know when productivity ceases in the day, Joe M., but I will contend that it dwindles greatly during October, when your team is in the playoffs.

So, I know the numbers. I have seen the tables. I know that outs are precious. I understand that sacrifice bunting reduces the odds of a big inning, and even reduces the likelihood of scoring a single run if you bunt with a man on first and no one out. I even realize that sacrifice bunting can certainly fail, with pop ups and strikeouts, and even the occasional double play. But hear me out. Maybe there is a case for bunting, after all. First of all, while the tables show that your team will score fewer overall runs in all three typical bunting situations (1st, 1st/2nd, 2nd with no one out), in the latter two situations, the tables show that you are, in fact, increasing your chance of scoring at all. Especially with a man on second and no one out, a sacrifice bunt increases the chances of cashing that runner at second. So there's that. Second, major league hitting is mostly about failure. The large majority of the time, a hitter fails to get a hit, and almost as much of the time, he returns to the dugout without getting on base. In addition, most innings, a team heads back out into the field with their gloves not having scored. Sacrifice bunting greatly increases the chances that a hitter will succeed--at the task he was assigned. Granted, the bar is lower, only being asked to advance the runner, but still, he returns to the dugout and gets a round of high fives. He feels positive and gains confidence, believing he helped move the team towards achieving its goal of scoring. Similarly, the next batter (especially the batter who comes up with a man on third and one out) has a much higher chance of success than he would in a normal at bat, because he can succeed in getting the run home with a mere fly out or grounder. And the team has, in at least two of the scenarios, increased their chance of success - defined as scoring in the inning. With so much failure in baseball, the confidence that comes from increasing hitters' chance of success must count for something. What that is, or how to measure it, I am not sure. Similarly, scoring a run is clearly better than not scoring a run. While scoring more runs is clearly better than scoring exactly one run, the choice between zero runs and (a small chance at) two or more runs is not so clear cut. Finally, the playoffs are a time when there are better pitchers on the mound. Only the best teams are in, and only the top 3 or maybe four pitchers from the rotation pitch, and then the best relievers. Runs are at a premium. Manufacturing runs, getting leads, adding on...are all a part of successful October baseball. Sometimes you need Dave Roberts to steal a base and get "productive out"-ed around to home to have a chance against Mariano Rivera. The Twins have certainly been practicing National league smallball this year under Molitor, and they may have increased their chances of succeeding at it for having practiced it. I know it's crazy. It's dumb to give away the few outs you have. I've long felt that, having spent years reading Baseball Prospectus, The Book, Tango, and Bill James. I understand the numbers. But maybe, just maybe, there is more to the story...and Molitor is crazy like a fox?

Anyone else drawing the same conclusion that none of the other teams are interested in winning the second wild card?

Since Reyes and Meares were both already taken, let's go to 331. J.C. Romero

Well damn, that trendline is gone to hell. Twins score double digits against the Tiger in three of the four games....and would you look at that, Gibson, of all people is the only one who didn't get 10+ runs! September for Gibson: 5 games, 4-0, 2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP. Since the All-Star Game, a 3.58 ERA over 12 starts. The Twins have won 9 of those 12 games. He has been a big reason the Twins are heading to the Wild Card Game.

Notable that 8 games over 500 marks a high water mark for the season (got there once before as well). 4-2 finishing kick would get them to 10 over.

Two more hits brings Joe to 1984, the year that brought us Jeopardy, TED conferences, crack cocaine, the Discovery space shuttle, Ghostbusters, the AIDS virus, and Born in the USA.

Buck Farmer owes Cleveland $1,000.

Jorge Babe Polanco

The very same. Dick started off the broadcast by wishing for a spoonerism-free broadcast with Buck Farmer on the mound.

A chance to move to 4-3 on this critical road-trip. And going against Buck Farmer, sporting a 7+ ERA, and a lineup with Alex Presley, Dixon Machado, and Efren Navarro. On top of this, a lame-duck manager. Seems like a golden opportunity to win a game.

Good little tune. Very classy. Let's dream on about becoming the first ever 100-loss team to make the playoffs the following year, and beat the Yankees in their home stadium. As we all know, one of the best days of the year is the day the Yankees get eliminated. This year, the Twins can get the chance to do the honors.

I suppose. I'm more looking forward to discussing how he won it.

After an 0-fer on Friday night, Joe gets a hit that breaks the pitcher's leg. That brings him to 1982, the year that brought us Epcot, the Commodore 64, the CD, the Falklands War, the start of Ripken's Streak, E.T., best picture for Chariots of Fire, and Thriller.

If the Twins go 2-5 down the stretch, one of the Royals, Angels or Rangers would need to go 7-1 to tie.

I don't think a re-write is necessary....this looks like the Wild Card starting lineup to me.

Joe crushed a ball to left center that was somehow caught, and then hit a comebacker that the pitcher snagged. I think he's just as likely to get three hits to tomorrow.

It might be the margin by which the Twins make it into the playoffs. And if the Twins beat the Yankees in a one-game playoff, the Yankees may have wished they had won those two games in July and faced someone else.

Three hits last night bring him up to 1981. The year that brought us Donkey Kong, Prince Charles and Lady Di's wedding, the IBM PC, the end of the Iranian hostage situation, MTV, and Raiders of the Lost Ark.

I can't even imagine a scenario where Joe plays for a team other than the Twins, especially after he is World Series MVP and all.

Down to 8. Thank you Cleveland again. Now, feel free to lose all of the rest of your games.

330. Dennys Reyes

I believe it said "the Dominicans are with you." Nice win. Keep it rolling tomorrow, Kyle.