Interesting analysis. I actually think he made the right choice. While the RE shows he erred 1.11 to 1.00, that 1.11 means there are many scenarios where the inning turns into a big crooked number, even after preventing the first run. They would almost certainly score one of the remaining runners on base anyway, and additionally they have a decent chance of scoring 2 or more runs in the inning. Taking the double play in a low-scoring game, and almost assuring that you limit the damage to one run by clearing the bases with two outs, is the right call, in my view. Basically you are saying, once men got on first and third, ok, you got a run, but we are limiting it to just one. .