AlwaysinModeration

Aaron posted his annual top 40 prospect list on the Athletic on Monday, which means that it is now the 11th story in the list of stories on the Athletic’s Twins page. As the Athletic is subscription based, I’m not going to list the whole top 40 here, but I’ll list the top five and a couple of other interesting (at least to me) players on his list - and/or their locations on the list. He starts by noting that 5 of last year’s top 10 graduated - Duran, Ryan, Miranda, Winder and Celestino, and 11 of the top 25 from 2022 are graduated or gone from the org. 1. Brooks Lee: “switch-hitting shortstop many considered the country’s premier college bat” 2. Royce Lewis: “if something resembling [the early 2022] version of Lewis remains intact after another 12 months of rehab, the Twins will have a 24-year-old building block” 3. Emmanuel Rodriguez: “has as much upside as anyone in the Twins system and could be a consensus top-25 global prospect this time next year” 4. Matt Wallner: “even a batting average in the low .200s, combined with 30 homers and lots of walks, could make Wallner an impact bat, but expect plenty of swings and misses” 5. Austin Martin: “in just 12 months, the No. 5 pick in the 2020 draft had gone from a consensus top-50 global prospect to being absent from most top-100 lists…[but] don’t write him off just yet” … 10. Yasser Mercedes: “elite bat speed and power-athleticism combination….one of the highest-upside prospects in the Twins’ system” … 14. Jordan Balazovic: “stock plummeted about as far as possible without a major arm injury involved… still just 24 years old…a huge question mark…but still has mid-rotation upside” … 29. Brett Headrick: “deception and command have gotten him this far, but to succeed as a starter in the majors his changeup needs to become a reliable weapon versus righty sluggers” … 36. Keoni Cavaco: “still just 21 years old — three months younger than 2022 first-rounder Brooks Lee … finished on a high note with a good September, but his overall game remains very raw” If you don’t have a subscription to the Athletic, it’s recommended. To read the rest of the top 40, click here: https://theathletic.com/4005153/2023/01/09/top-twins-prospects-brooks-lee/?source=user_shared_article

How about this offer? (Marlins could also bring back Nick’s brother Dee).

I just can’t see them trading a player after winning a batting title.

Define “accelerate.”

It’s up to 80% now, I tell you. But did Correa really tackle Boras into a hotel bed when he landed him the Mets “contract”? I might’ve had that reaction if it was the Yankees…or the White Sox.

Talks between the Twins and Boras re: Correa are “accelerating”….

Setting aside the apparent extremely deplorable things he did in his personal life that resulted in him being blackballed (and paid millions not to play by the Dodgers), Bauer has had a pretty interesting career: 1) pioneer in the use of slow-motion, high definition video to improve his pitching to elite levels 2) refusing to play along with the Scott Boras super agents of the world, negotiating his own contract / working with a friend (happened to be female, unusual in those circles) to go year to year for best contract instead of long-term/lower AAV (which has now backfired) 3) called out Gerrit Cole / Astros for cheating on spin rates, including personally demonstrating how easily it could done by spiking his own spin rates during one inning of a game. He seems to flaunt “doing things his own way” to the point of being insufferable and as a result has made a ton of enemies—teammates, coaches, etc. He’s very talented and would probably help the Twins, but I’d be very leery about even considering it. Again, that’s not even getting into the stuff that has gotten him DFAed by the Dodgers, etc. All of the personal / awful stuff would ratchet that leeriness towards the Twins getting involved x10.

All true and I’ve wondered why he didn’t go for shorter, higher AAV contracts. Two reasons come to mind: 1) Boras wanted to get the full commission, so incentivized to get him out of the Twins 3/105 deal as soon as possible 2) Maybe the plate in his ankle is legitimately going to disintegrate after a few years, so he wants to get as long a contract with as high a value as possible now.

I’ll bet the plate in Correa’s ankle on it.

They’ve agreed! The deal is for 20 years. They just haven’t agreed on how much they are giving him per year. The Twins say 10.5 per year, whereas Correa wants 30.5 per year. But stay tuned, this should be wrapped up shortly.

Which happens first? Correa contract House has speaker

And just read on the other rumor thread the post by Brock saying he’s hearing secondhand that “it’s gonna happen.” I’m pushing my odds up to 62.5%

I said 25% when I posted this last night. I’d say at least 50-50 now?

And they have “momentum” per Jim Bowden. For what it’s worth.

Could the Minnesota Twins wind up with Correa after all? The Giants deal fell through, then the Mets deal was agreed to weeks ago, but hasn’t been finalized due to medical concerns. And now today is a Jon Heyman report that “Boras engaged at least one other team regarding Correa this afternoon.” The Twins are mentioned in the report as having tried to reengage, and as an obvious landing spot, having employed Correa (healthy) last year, and having a vacancy and payroll space to accommodate him. The likelihood of Correa coming back to the Twins has to have crept up. Maybe 25%? View full rumor

I had the same thought, but remember, he just switched to Boras as his agent. So Boras would only get half of a long-term contract commission. So Boras was incentivized to get Correa to sign a one-year deal.

A few different ways of thinking about this: 1. Correa passed on the latter two years of the Twins’ 3/105. So he passed on 2/70 and instead got 13/350. If he had take the Twins options, would he have gotten 11/280 in two years? That’s $25mm/year. 2. The Twins paid him $35mm last year, and then offered him 10/285 on top of that. That’s 11/320 they offered him in total. In other words, the Twins offered a player 11 years of $29mm/year. 3. He’s making $27mm/year from the Giants. That’s an $8mm/payout from what the Twins would have been paying him this year and next year if he had taken the option years. 4. I’m dying to know what the other offers the Twins made him are. Reports of 6 years at $30mm+ per year. Opt outs? It seems like he could have done a lot better if he’d gone year-to-year or gotten a contract with options. Anyway, it was fun to have him on the Twins this year, but not overly upset that he signed with the Giants. (Glad it’s not the Yankees.)

I’ll play - although Correa will have been a free agent since October of 2035. Luiz Arraez gets his 3,000th hit on the final day of the regular season and Twins celebrate their 4th title in a decade. Ron DeSantis nears the end of his eighth year in office, and while there is speculation that he will try to find a way to stay in office for a third term, the presidential race between Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ben Sasse heads towards the finish line.

I’d hate to see what “not mad” looks like!

Jax working on velo at Driveline = ding ding ding

1) Highly doubt the Twins would contemplate attempting to trade for Reynolds, and 2) I really hope they don’t, either.

If they offer him a 20 year deal, the last ten could literally be dead money.

So, if LaVelle says it is three offers, one 10, one 8 and one 6 that is over 30/year, the offers could be: 6x31 = 186 (opt out after 3) 8x28 = 214 (opt out after 3, 5) 10x25 = 250 (opt out after 3, 5)

One great day at the plate away from a triple crown? I am really surprised he’s not playing. Plus he could hit 63 or 64, cementing his record. Once the post season starts there are days off every game or so…