Seth Stohs

How fun was watching the Twins bullpen late in the season and the playoffs? Rocco Baldelli and Pete Maki could turn to power arm after power arm. But there isn’t a more powerful arm in baseball than the right arm of Jhoan Duran’s. Might the Twins be wise to lock him up on a long-term contract extension? Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports When contemplating a long-term, life-altering extension with a ballplayer, many factors must come into play. We will discuss a few of them below before jumping into my thoughts on what such a contract might look like for Jhoan Duran. You can also watch the short video that @Nash Walker put together with his ideas about a Duran extension. Background Jhoan Duran has two full seasons in the big leagues and has been remarkably dominant in both seasons. What’s even more remarkable is what he is doing when you consider what he went through in the seasons leading up to his 2022 debut. Duran came to the Twins organization in a July 2018 trade deadline deal that sent infielder Eduardo Escobar to the Diamondbacks. Just days after the trade, he joined the Low-A Cedar Rapids Kernels. The right-hander struck out eight batters in seven scoreless, no-hit innings in his first start. He had another start with nine strikeouts in seven innings of one-run ball. He followed that start with 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings of one-hit ball and gave up only an unearned run. While few Twins fans had heard the name Jhoan Duran before the trade, he made a solid first impression in the organization. He began the 2019 season with High-A Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and one relief appearance. While he went 2-9, he posted just a 3.23 ERA over 78 innings. He had 95 strikeouts as well. He ended the season going 3-3 over seven starts with Double-A Pensacola. Following the season, the Twins added him to the 40-man roster. Injury Risk Unfortunately, he did not pitch in games in 2020 due to the cancellation of the minor league season because of Covid. He was having elbow and forearm pain during the spring of 2021. His debut with the St. Paul Saints featured six strikeouts in three innings in late May. He followed that with eight strikeouts in four one-hit, scoreless innings. He was hitting triple digits with regularity at CHS Field. When the calendar turned to June, he started to struggle. Three runs on three hits and five walks over four innings. Three runs on six hits and two walks in 4 1/3 innings. And then, on June 15th, he recorded just two outs and gave up two runs on two hits and three walks. He was immediately shut down and spent the rest of the season rehabbing. He never did have elbow surgery. In 2022, he went to spring training with many questions surrounding him. But he pitched very well in his outings, dominating enough to make the Opening Day roster. As you would expect, the Twins were very patient with Duran. He didn’t pitch in back-to-back games. If he pitched two innings, he would get two days off, at least. And as the season went on, it was increasingly clear that he was the team’s best bullpen arm. It didn’t take long for him to start working in high-leverage situations. In 2023, the 25-year-old should have been an All-Star but didn’t get selected inexplicably. His ERA was slightly higher (2.45 after 1.86), and his WHIP jumped from 0.98 to 1.14 this year. His strikeout rate rose a little, from 11.8 K/9 to 12.1 K/9. However, his walk rate jumped from 2.1 BB/9 to 3.6 BB/9. That was the issue at times, yet he continued to be one of the most dominant relievers in the game. His fWAR as a rookie was 1.5. In 2023, he was at 1.0 fWAR. Research suggests that higher velocity could play a role in pitcher injuries, and Duran certainly does not lack that. He throws a 104 mph four-seamer, a splinker at 98-to-100 mph, and one might argue that his best pitch is his incredibly sharp upper-80s curveball. His arsenal will be a concern for opposing hitters and potentially doctors who work on arms. Watch Nash's video Before you continue, take two minutes and watch Nash’s video on a Duran contract extension so you can compare it to what I show below. Jhoan Duran has exactly 2.000 years of service time. Assuming he doesn’t ever use his final option, he will be arbitration-eligible for the first time following the 2024 season. If he goes year-to-year, Duran will have three years of arbitration before becoming a free agent following the 2027 season. In other words, the Twins already have his rights for the next four seasons, and he will be a free agent heading into his age-30 season. Renewed In my mind, this is a topic that hasn’t been addressed. And truthfully, I don’t know if it is a big deal. With the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, the minimum salary went from $700,000 in 2022 to $720,000 in 2023. In 2024, it will be $740,000. For pre-arbitration players, they typically get small bumps in pay each season. For example, Ronny Henriquez had 18 days of service time in 2022. According to Cot’s Contracts, he would have made $720,900 had he spent the entire 2023 season in the big leagues. With 73 days of service time coming into the season, Josh Winder would have made $725,650 in 2023. Jhoan Duran had precisely one year of service time coming into 2023. Two players were reasonably close to that timeline. Jose Miranda entered 2023 with 157 days of service time (180 days equals one year). He was set to make $727,850. Joe Ryan entered 2023 with 1.033 years (one year, 33 days) of service time. In 2023, he made $730,250. Considering those two numbers, it’s fair to suggest that Duran should have made around $729,000 in 2023. However, if unable to reach an agreement on a 2023 contract, teams can “renew” a contract at the previous year’s value. That happened with Duran, as his salary bumped from the 2022 league minimum of $700,000 to the 2023 league minimum of $720,000. So what? He should have made $9,000 more than he did this year. Who cares? Right? Does that mean the two sides disagreed over what couldn’t have been more than a couple thousand dollars? Does it mean they were working on a long-term deal last offseason, and it didn’t happen? Does it mean things were contentious between Duran and his representatives and the Twins brass? Probably not. With MLB allocating $50 million for pre-arbitration players, Duran should have made well over $9,000 of that chunk. It's probably much ado about nothing, but it could be something to watch later in the offseason. Contract Details The Twins would want to extend a player to save money down the road and buy out some years of free agency. A player might be willing to give up some long-term dollars to get the guaranteed money in case of injury or lack of sustained production. As Nash mentioned in his video, the most similar extension might be the five-year, $20 million extension that Emmanuel Clase reached with the Guardians a couple of years ago. It comes with a couple of option years as well. Along with throwing hard, Clase already has an 80-game PED suspension, which likely creates some risk. Josh Hader has gone year-to-year in arbitration. He had four years of arbitration and earned $4.1 million in 2020, $6.675 million in 2021, $11 million in 2022, and this season, he pitched for $14.1 million. He will become a free agent in a couple of weeks, and it will be interesting to see what kind of deal he gets. So, here is my proposal: In summary, this contract would cover five years, and $33 million would be guaranteed. It also includes two option years. It includes a $1.5 million signing bonus. The $2.5 million in 2024 is over three times more than he would make on a one-year, pre-arbitration contract. This contract would buy out his final pre-arbitration season, three years of arbitration, and one free-agent season. And, as you can see, it includes up to two more free-agent seasons and could be worth up to seven years and $56 million. So, what do you think? Is this a contract you would feel comfortable with the Twins and Duran agreeing to? What would be your biggest concerns about the deal? How do you feel about extending a reliever with some elbow issues in his past? Leave your thoughts below. For much more Twins Daily content on Jhoan Duran, click here. View full article

I was wondering if this was the forum thread for this topic... Just to think... Tom Brady played in high school (baseball) with Dan Serafini, and then played in the NFL with Aaron Hernandez... Coincidence? Fans of my age who collected cards back in the day probably have a bunch of Serafini draft pick cards like I do. I wonder if they're worth more now?

I enjoy doing these too... I like to take advantage of the fact that Killebrew played a variety of positions. I'd put him at 3B... and I think I'd have Gaetti over Koskie, though that's close too. That allows you to have Hrbek and Morneau at 1B/DH.

I think the immediate moves would be Luplow and Stevenson, and De Leon makes sense too (though I'd offer him a 2 year, minor-league deal). They'll add Camargo (before the end of the World Series) and then they'll add Martin and Rodriguez in late November. May make a couple of drops at that point. No need to drop players until they need to drop players.

I would love this. As you pointed out, there are a number of ways that they could go with this... I think there are numerous possibilities. Ownership/Revenues could be split something like Twins: 35%, Wolves: 25%, Wild: 20% That leaves another 20%... Maybe they get a deal with the Gophers. Or, maybe they get a deal with the NSIC or the MIAC... Maybe they get a deal with St. Thomas. Maybe they put together an agreement with the MSHSL. Twins #1 priority, Wolves and Wild try to work their schedules with their leagues to work as many alternate nights as possible and when they play the same night, maybe they alternate playing at 2:00 and 7:00. Or they have a "Plus" station. The MIAC games can have a Live game of the week, but can also air replays at any open times during the day, etc. I think there could be a SportsCenter like show an hour every day with some highlights and analysis. It could be at like 10:30 pm and they could re-air it a couple times in the morning (MLB Network does this). How good would that be for those leagues to have those teams on a prominent, legitimate TV station? It'd be a great recruiting feature for the regional D2 and D3 schools and a source for their athletic departments. But the odds are incredibly low... certainly not by the 2024 season.

The Twins signed him out of the USPBL (same day as Malik Barrington, and Jackson Hicks, and Ricardo Velez... July 21, 2021). So no, he'll likely never be on a prospect ranking. But, that doesn't mean he can't or won't get to the big leagues. First, he's left-handed, second, some video of his curveball makes it look legit. If he can add a couple of mph to his low-90s fastball, then maybe. Or maybe he can be the next Kody Funderburk. He's the kind that you just let keep pitching well and see where it goes. He's... in my opinion... the kind of minor leaguer you want to root for.

Where? Why? (Or did I need a #sarcasm included... if so, my bad!)

And where is that, or where should that be? Lewis is likely the better 3B. Correa's not moving off of short. Polanco should play 2B. Julien and Miranda can platoon at 1B. Lee could come up right now and play any of those four spots. Any of those players could miss time with injury and Lee would be ready to take their spot. Martin can play LF, CF, 2B. Larnach and Wallner can play the corners. And, it'll all paly out over the next 4 1/2 months. And depth is good.

That's what people would have said this year about Willi Castro or Donovan Solano too. Gordon's 2022 was equivalent to Castro's 2023... I would say that Castro is a little better defensively.

The front office provides Baldelli and the coaching staff with all kinds of data for them to review and study. Some is about Twins players, and some is about the other team. The players get as much information as they want as well... But as Tingler said... the manager is able to make decisions using that information, but also based on his knowledge of his team.

I like it a lot. There is such a strange part of fandom that doesn't get that this is the goal of all organizations and how they use analytics.

Camargo will have to be added before the end of the World Series when he again becomes a free agent. Last year, they were able to sign him to a minor-league deal. I can't imagine him not being a Rule 5 pick, so I think they need to add him. The Givens: Austin Martin and Emmanuel Rodriguez. The Tough Calls: Jose Salas, Yunior Severino, Ricardo Olivar. DaShawn Keirsey. - I'd add Severino. The power is legit, depth is good. - I'd very strongly consider Keirsey. He can play in the big leagues now, and he can be a late-inning defensive replacement, pinch runner, etc. - Ricardo Olivar... very tough. Put up strong numbers, but in Low-A. Intriguing player type because he can play LF and CF pretty well, but he also is a catcher. Lots of doubles, but could he stick? Rubel Cespedes is another from the Mighty Mussels, but as a corner infielder, he's probably left off for another year. - Jose Salas... The Twins kept playing him through Cedar Rapids championship run. Tells me they believe in him, or at least his defense, speed, and his potential.

Ump Scorecard for Wednesday night's game:

We already saw Baldelli pinch hit Solano for Kirilloff, and that could carry over to tonight. The overreaction isn't so much about potential lineup changes as it is about some of the big statements on if a player is or isn't clutch based on two games, or even five games, etc.

I definitely agree with this. Experience does matter. Having been there and done that matters. Doing well or doing poorly sets you up for the next time... That's another reason I believe that they need to go with the young guys and play the game situations as they have throughout the second half.

I would say the larger the sample, the more accurate it would be in being predictive. There's no way to know that in a 1 or 2 or even 5-game stretch. Royce Lewis was immensely clutch in his two games against the Jays. He hasn't been in his past two games against the Astros. What does this mean about his ability to perform in a highly stressful playoff environment? It means something he'll come through and sometimes he won't... just like in any day or week of the regular season. I never mean to downplay the playoffs. I get it. That is why they play the regular season and the ultimate goal is the World Series championship. Sonny Gray had one very good playoff start and one not so good. Does that mean he's not clutch? Pablo Lopez was great against the Jays and his Game 2 start vs Houston was legendary... What if there is a Game 5 in Houston on Friday night and he gives up 5 runs in 5 innings? What if he gives up 3 runs in 6 innings and they lose 3-2? Does that alter the narrative? Finally, was Jack Morris a clutch pitcher in the playoffs? Well, he sure was in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. He lost game 4... and a look back at his playoff starts with the Tigers show he wasn't very good at all most of the time. I believe in clutch moments, clutch situations. We all know when somebody comes through in the clutch. But I don't believe that anyone can be clutch enough to know with any real certainty what's going to happen, good or bad. I don't believe in the alleged "Clutch Gene." What I do believe is that given a decent sample size of plate appearances, if a player is equally successful as his regular season numbers in clutch or high pressure situations, that's really good. Who has better playoff offensive numbers? Derek Jeter or A-Rod? Jeter has a few moments that stand out and he was good in the playoffs, but A-Rod was better and people said he couldn't come up big when needed (even though he did). Sorry that got long.

I'm certain he wasn't thinking about his hamstring when he was batting. His concentration is just fine. and players go from clutch to non-clutch to hot to cold all of the time, for like 22-23 weeks in the season. They all want to be hot and clutch at all times, especially in the playoffs, but that's not realistic.

What does the ability to survive on land or in water have to do with it though?

No chance. But I'd have Lewis, Kirilloff, Wallner, Julien all playing. They're facing a right-hander.

Not only did the ball stay down, but it was bounding back and forth like it was moving with some english. Definitely NOT a 'routine' double play. Yes, knock it down, try to get the one out... but WAY too much being made of that one play. Gray relies on spin, and movement because of the spin... Today, there was some spin, but very little movement... That's why the shadows didn't effect their hitters like they did the Twins hitters who were trying to hit balls that not only spun, but dropped and darted. With no spin on pitches they were looking for... and they did a nice job of sticking to a game plan.

Two options... Overreact to a couple of bad games against strong teams, or show those guys you believe in them and their future in this organization. Reason #8942 why I hate the playoffs... everything gets overanalyzed and blown way out of proportion. A two-game slump... and its the end of the world. Of note - Solano pinch-hit for Kirilloff with a right-hander on the mound. That's probably a sign of things to come tomorrow, maybe. Wallner didn't and worked two really good plate appearances. I hope not. Go with the guys that got you there. Stick to the platooning, and go from there. Wallner, Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien... all a big part of the Twins future, and that's a good thing. Stand by them. Or don't, that's the purpose of having all this depth. Try to live another day and get to a Verlander-Lopez game 5... that's the goal at this point. But against Urquidy, do you want them to go with Solano at 1st, Farmer at 3rd, Castro in LF with Taylor in CF. Could have Vazquez catch, and let Jeffers DH?

Game's been over for 20 minutes... I'm all good. Just have to hope for a better game tomorrow.

I mean, the guys in the booth don't decide what is shown on TV.

I wasn't a fan of AJ Pierzynski as a player. His perceived arrogance on the field annoyed me, and I thought it would in the booth too. Adam Wainwright just finished playing, so I don't expect him to add anything more than things he might do or about players he's faced over the years. Adam Amin is the play-by-play guy. I was surprised in Game 1 that I was actually really impressed with the call of the game. That doesn't mean I will be in the remainder of the games, but for one game, I thought they did well. Unlike many of the national guys, AJ does have a relationship with the Twins and has done several of their games, and has played against the organization. And I do think he is good in terms of analysis. I think he does a nice job of just calling it as he sees it and analyzing. I actually think Wainwright did a nice job in explaining some things from a pitcher's perspective. He also didn't force things. He didn't overanalyze and talk just to talk. And I thought Amin did a nice job of using both of them and calling the game. Overall, did they talk more knowledgeably about the Astros? Of course, they're the team that has been to the ALCS the last 5-6 years. We all know a ton about them. But they had a good enough knowledge of the Twins players. There was praise for Verlander... as their should have been. But they also fully acknowledged his early innings struggles, but he worked out of them. They were honest about Ryan Pressly's track record in equal parts with his 2nd half struggles. So yeah, I thought they did a nice job... I don't expect it to be a Twins broadcast team. I understand the Astros history. But I thought the conversation and analysis were very fair, very good. Do you agree? Disagree? Discuss.

Walker JenkinsBrooks LeeEmmanuel RodriguezCharlee SotoMarco RayaYunior SeverinoDavid FestaAustin MartinDanny De AndradeKala'i RosarioTanner SchobelYasser MercedesBrandon WinokurNoah MillerLuke KeaschallAndrew MorrisRicardo OlivarCory LewisMatt CanterinoPierson Ohl