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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    @Mike, I agree the 2017 Twins are analogous to the 2016 Yankees.... on the surface. There are some key differences that blow that apart however. 1. The 2016 Yankees were 6.5 games back and behind 5 other teams for the 2nd wild card spot. The 2017 Twins are in a much better spot vis a vis the playoff picture. 2. The 2016 Yankees had more premium trade assets. 3. The 2016 trade market seemed to favor sellers much more than the 2017 market. We haven't seen anything like the multiple top-100 prospects for a rental like the Chapman trade was, for example. As others have noted, there is no guarantee the Twins will be in such a good spot next deadline. And if they aren't, it would be good to have a legit trade chip like Gray (if healthy). Seems possible, maybe even likely, the market will be more favorable to sellers next year and the Twins could profit from the arbitrage if nothing else (minus a little time decay).
  2. Willihammer
    Hernandez is Seattle's #6, but nationally he's unranked. He's a 19 year old outfielder with a career OPS of .702 in the minor leagues. Pretty cheap price if you ask me, like every other trade so far.
  3. Willihammer
    Do the Twins have a Chapman / Miller type to trade? Even if they did, would a similar return be out there this year?
  4. Willihammer
    I can see both sides, and a week ago I would have voted sell but seeing what prices are for pitching I think there are (or were) good deals out there. I would be all in favor of a trade like the Yankees or Nats just pulled off.
  5. Willihammer
    That 3 run dong by Sano was BRUTAL. BTW this was the first home series win against the Yankees in the Target Field era. The curse is broken!
  6. Willihammer
    I admit I didn't expect to see such steady progress from Rosario this summer. He has really turned it around. He now leads the team in batting average and has gotten his k-rate under 20%. Very solid progress.
  7. Willihammer
    Looks like Vargas fouled another ball of his foot yesterday and could hit the DL. http://www.startribune.com/updates-on-buxton-vargas-and-mauer-after-loss-to-astros/434617393/
  8. Willihammer
    According to that, his curve has gotten a bit more slurvy but it hasn't changed that much. Opponents are only slugging .330 off it. But they're hammering his sinker. Maybe a victim of the uppercut evolution? He's also abandoned the cutter for some reason. Wonder why. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=500779&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=slg&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=07/12/2017
  9. Willihammer
    3 team trade?
  10. Willihammer
    The other name to keep in mind is Julio Teheran. Declining velo, declining swinging strike rates + cheap contract should make him the top target for the Twins in any deadline trade I would think.
  11. Willihammer
    Its not a perfect comp as I said. Point is, sometimes teams pay extreme prices at the deadline. And also that teams do pay for guys who are screaming for regression. If the return is great enough then it doesn't need to be MLB-ready pitching necessarily. The Twins can then (theoretically) re-balance for pitching in the offseason, and roll Santana's contract into signing another FA or two.
  12. Willihammer
    The reason a pitching starved team like the Twins should trade their best pitcher is deadline premium. Its not a perfect comp but the Jeff Samardzija/Hammel trade comes to mind. Both pitchers were in the middle of career seasons and outperforming their career norms and peripherals when they were traded. I think pretty much everyone thought at the time that the Athletics paid a hefty premium to make their (failed) playoff push. Nobody knows that a buyer like that is out there this season, obviously. But if there is, then its fair to hope the Twins would be sellers in that case.
  13. Willihammer
    I think this is a definite possibility. Looking ahead to the FA class, there are a good number of RH hitting outfielders - Lorenzo Cain, JD Martinez, Bautista, Eric Young Jr, Colby Rasmus, etc. who could be reasonably cheap upgrades. If Buxton + prospect package could bring back a controlled starter, I think you pull the trigger on that for sure, assuming Granite doesn't totally fall on his face defensively.
  14. Willihammer
    Mejia could have gone 7, maybe 7.1 if he had fielded his position at a professional level. Very fieldable bunt hit in the first by Rickard and a failed pickoff gone into right field later in the game. Am I forgetting anything? Seems like he leaves an out or two on the table every start.
  15. Willihammer
    Another thing you could do is buy 15 of the $70 puts, and sell 15 of the $75 puts to enter a vertical position. Premium gained would be about $2100 (less commisions) while capping your downside risk at $7500.
  16. Willihammer
    Holy crap it is yellow. Almost tooooo yellow...
  17. Willihammer
    And keep $7500 sitting idle in case your put is exercised? Or would you do a more fly be the seat of your pants approach. To me that is one important part of the equation. The 2nd is income tax rate which is what your premiums will be taxed at, versus long term capital gains/loss.
  18. Willihammer
    Come on. Affordable, front end starter under control for multiple years? That's pretty much the ideal trade chip at the deadline. Its risky but the Twins have painted themselves into this weird corner where they are pitching starved but their best trade chip is a pitcher. Figure it out.
  19. Willihammer
    Free agency, trade, minor leagues. It would take some creativity for sure.
  20. Willihammer
    The Twins' OPS is exactly the same as it was last year (.738) but its worse compared to the rest of baseball as offense is up generally. The OPS+ has dropped from 97 to 95. After this Boston series I looked at their game logs to see how we've fared against opponents by division and record. Long story short, its the same as they 2000s Twins teams. They're 3-7 against AL East opponents and have been outscored 2-1. They're cleaning up against weak AL Central opponents and benefiting from the unbalanced schedule. I hate to say it, but they're pretenders. They can't pitch, and they can't score against decent teams outside the division. Trade Santana, Kintzler and re-load with pitching and another bat or two this offseason. Hang onto their minor league trade chips until they show they aren't totally overmatched by the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros. Next year hopefully.
  21. Willihammer
    Parker, do you believe Buxton has a contact problem? If so, what would you do to fix it?
  22. Willihammer
    Watching the condensed game this morning, Mejia didn't cover first base TWICE on grounders to the right side. Basic stuff. Lucky for him, Mauer+instant replay bailed him out the 2nd time.
  23. Willihammer
    What's the price tag on Marte expected to be?
  24. Willihammer
    ... we got him (Geez people)
  25. Willihammer
    Ladies and gentlemen...
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