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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Wright's deal is the most surprising to me. $7m for #5? That's $2.3m overslot and ~71% of the Braves pool. McKay is a little easier to grasp IMO, the Rays had a lot of money and I could see them trying to max his value as a two-way guy.
  2. Willihammer
    My last buy was MELI at $288.54, right before the NASDAQ got slammed. Also picked up a couple LEAPS in SQ. I thought about SHOP but I like the FCF trends of SQ more. So, I fully expect SHOP to outperform in the next 18 months.
  3. Willihammer
    So you can afford a player or two who falls like Enlow did. Overslot spending must be combined with downdraft / underslot picks, particularly in rounds 1-10 where slot values are subtracted when players don't sign.
  4. Willihammer
    Summary from Bollinger at MLB.com. Some quotes from the FO. They are pretty happy with the outcome. http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/236492416/twins-go-heavy-on-pitching-in-2017-draft/
  5. Willihammer
    Do you own blocks? You could spin up some $$ with vertical spreads until you get called out. Could make a decent $$ if the market goes sideways. If you don't own blocks I'd just sell, or set a trailing stop loss in case the market bounces.
  6. Willihammer
    Patrick Bailey taken in the 38th round, a catcher from Wesleyan Christian Academy. He was 382nd on Sickel's board, #299 on BA. NC State commit, Then there's this, tweeted 8 hrs ago
  7. Willihammer
    Yeah, I'm puzzled. Seems like a wasted pick probably.
  8. Willihammer
    http://www.cleburnetimesreview.com/sports/alvarado-s-adam-oviedo-awaits-mlb-draft-as-he-decides/article_47ef19b8-4d39-11e7-8074-47d7958251ce.html
  9. Willihammer
    Course the Twins next pick is Adam Oviedo, a high schooler ranked 129th on MLB.com's board.
  10. Willihammer
    Yeah, especially if you get em young. So far only 3 guys under the age of 20. I had hoped they'd plumb more of the high school ranks today but seems they blew most of their spare cash on day 2.
  11. Willihammer
    Andy Cosgrove, junior catcher from NC State. Batted .284/.363/.461 in 141 AB's in the ACC. edit: Junior not sophomore. Went to juco his sophomore year.
  12. Willihammer
    Cade Smith: http://www.ncsasports.org/baseball-recruiting/british-columbia/abbotsford/mennonite-educational-institute/cade-smith2 Some video there from 2015. Halfway in he pitches.
  13. Willihammer
    Great draft coverage mlb
  14. Willihammer
    Is the MLB.com draft feed working for people?
  15. Willihammer
    Burns is out, according to this: http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/06/auburn_signees_tanner_burns_st.html Beck miiiight be an option but as a sophomore you'd have to think he'll want to try and raise his stock next year. Would love to get Mitchell but doubtful we have the $$. Just glancing over MLB.com's remaining talent list, I'd be looking for a guy like Steve Williams who is an Auburn commit that scouts aren't sure will stick at catcher. Maybe one of the 19 year old toolsy inf/of types, or someone like Van Eyk whose spring performance raised arm health concerns. Tough to see them making more of a splash today because of the Enlow pick.
  16. Willihammer
    Yeah we got a Blayne, a Ryley, and a Bryan. Should be giving Seth spell-check fits for many years!
  17. Willihammer
    Sammons- College senior, lefthanded, should be cheap. Would like to see them start turning to high schoolers in the next few rounds. Still a lot of draft to go.
  18. Willihammer
    I tend to side with Mike but could see selling too. Heard this market described as a "hated rally." The real question to me is what do you mean you're not working? TD just had 100,000 page views and didn't even crash! That calls for a raise I'd say.
  19. Willihammer
    Widell another JUCO player. 89-90, might be a tick of velo left to project, he just turned 20. Sounds like he has some upside.
  20. Willihammer
    Have you been listening to all the college "redrafts" being taken? There is a ton of talent that goes unsigned. Something like one out of 8 players here on out. Every round the Twins go into carrying savings puts them at an advantage.
  21. Willihammer
    Yeah would have preferred a little more ceiling there but who knows. Should be signable, maybe save a few $$ also.
  22. Willihammer
    Seems like a good pick. With all night to shop around, you would hope they got a good price too.
  23. Willihammer
    http://www.nola.com/lsu/index.ssf/2017/06/lsu_signee_blayne_enlow_drafte.html
  24. Willihammer
    Sickels writeup on Enlow: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/22/15660214/2017-mlb-draft-blayne-enlow-rhp-st-amant-louisiana
  25. Willihammer
    Seems likely their board was 1-2 Lewis and McKay, with the scouts preferring Lewis and analytics preferring McKay. I think their price point with McKay was probably lower because of the pitching risk. Buxton seems like a good comp for Lewis as he's a toolsy centerfielder with 70/80 speed. Both guys had underwhelming high school stats; with the bats "projected" to develop. But there are two advantages to taking Lewis IMO. One is he is nearly a half-year younger than Buxton was when he was drafted. Research suggests this extreme youth at draft time among HS bats is a fairly large market inefficiency. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295 Secondly, by passing on McKay the Twins undercut the possibility that the Rays, with the third biggest bonus pool, would reach for Bubba Thompson as BA believed they'd do. That would have given the Rays significant savings going into day 2. Instead, the Twins go into day two with a significant advantage in spending power.
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