Willihammer

We did the same. Got up there Friday and uncle Joe already had about a 5 drink head start on us. "Take the 4 wheeler and put out some apples over there by the clearing," he tells me. Not an hour later there's a 8 pointer standing there, tail down. Evidently Uncle Joe had gotten him into a habit. So he grabs the .338 and sits himself on the picnic table outside the garage. My brother who lived in Seattle for the past 10 years talked him out of it, luckily. "Save some for us deer virgins." So okay he puts it down. Joe paid us back Sunday morning though. We are just about to head in for the day, pack up and make the 4 hour car ride south to the cities when bang. 50 pound spike buck, great. Oh, Uncle Joe also happens to be allergic to deer so guess who had to dress it, skin it, and butcher it. That venison meat up in St Louis county tastes like dogsht anyway. I'm done with deer hunting.

If he is going to keep stranding runners, they had better get someone behind the dish who can actually catch those pitches.

Looks like a fine park

sorry, I should proof read before posting

Ben Revere doesn't swing and miss often. So he doesn't reach many 3 ball counts, and what follows below can be taken with heavy salt. Still, if there is meaning in his small sample of 3-ball data, then Ben Revere's high contact percentage allows for absolutist decisionmaking at the plate in order to maximize on-base percentage. Observe, Ben Revere is already a patient hitter: http://i.imgur.com/tJLMP.png But Revere puts balls in play at such an efficient clip, relative to the no. of swings he takes, that he doesn't see enough 3-ball counts to draw any walks. If you carry out the 62% strike % (which includes swinging strikes, but to be conservative with estimates I will use that figure), then Revere would see 84 3-0 counts per 1000 PAs (conveniently, Revere sits at 1000 PAs currently). By comparison, Span sees fourty-three 3-0 counts/1000 PAs. Again, assuming the red light stays on for 3-0 counts, that works out to 52 walks per 1000 PAs just by Revere having a red light on all 2-0 and 3-0 counts. Accounting for a full .050 points of OBP. Give him the red light on all 3-1 counts, and his OBP jumps another .022. But, how would Revere's batting average fair, when the pitcher throws a strike on 2-0 and 3-1? http://i.imgur.com/FrbfC.png Like most hitters, Revere struggles in 2 strike counts (except full count). But Revere's ability to put balls in play is so elite, that he rarely gets into such counts. In 1000 PAs, he has see just 151 counts, of 02, and 210 counts of 1-2. By comparison, Span sees 180 counts of 0-2 and 271 counts of 1-2. He just doesn't miss the ball in 0-strike and 1-strike counts, to his detriment sometimes. Thus, Revere needs to be given hard red lights in order to increase his OBP and turn him into a long term serviceable leadoff hitter.

Ben Revere doesn't swing and miss often. So he doesn't reach many 3 ball counts, and what follows below can be taken with heavy salt. Still, if there is meaning in his small sample of 3-ball data, then Ben Revere's high contact percentage allows for absolutist decisionmaking at the plate in order to maximize on-base percentage. Observe, Ben Revere is already a patient hitter: http://i.imgur.com/tJLMP.png But Revere puts balls in play at such an efficient clip, relative to the no. of swings he takes, that he doesn't see enough 3-ball counts to draw any walks. If you carry out the 62% strike % (which includes swinging strikes, but to be conservative with estimates I will use that figure), then Revere would see 84 3-0 counts per 1000 PAs (conveniently, Revere sits at 1000 PAs currently). By comparison, Span sees fourty-three 3-0 counts/1000 PAs. Again, assuming the red light stays on for 3-0 counts, that works out to 52 walks per 1000 PAs just by Revere having a red light on all 2-0 and 3-0 counts. Accounting for a full .050 points of OBP. Give him the red light on all 3-1 counts, and his OBP jumps another .022. But, how would Revere's batting average fair, when the pitcher throws a strike on 2-0 and 3-1? http://i.imgur.com/FrbfC.png Like most hitters, Revere struggles in 2 strike counts (except full count). But Revere's ability to put balls in play is so elite, that he rarely gets into such counts. In 1000 PAs, he has see just 151 counts, of 02, and 210 counts of 1-2. By comparison, Span sees 180 counts of 0-2 and 271 counts of 1-2. He just doesn't miss the ball in 0-strike and 1-strike counts, to his detriment sometimes. Thus, Revere needs to be given hard red lights in order to increase his OBP and turn him into a long term serviceable leadoff hitter.

Indeed a walk carries a lower run value than even a single, according to wOBA which values walks at something like .59 and singles at about .67. I don't know exact off hand but it is less.

I worded that wrongly. What I meant is that Deduno's walk rate will continue to hold down his FIP and WAR figures but if he can continue to induce weak contact on balls in play and hold runners at a clip of maybe .7 to 1.0 LOB wins/year, his success will be sustainable.

FDP explained by fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/introducing-fielding-dependent-pitching/ You can query FDP leaders by doing a search in the Pitching leaders section. Very flexible query.

Over the last three seasons, (min 450 IP), Jeremy Hellickson has accumulated 6.8 Fielding dependent wins. FDP wins are calculated based on a pitchers combined ability to limit hard contact on balls in play and strand runners ie. throw strikes from the stretch, limit the running game, etc. Hellickson's 6.8 FDP wins leads all qualified pitchers, by far. Next closest is Jared Weaver, at 5.4 FDP wins. Which brings me to Deduno, who in 10 starts has already accumulate 1.0 FDP-wins. 0.3 of which is owed to BIP-wins (ability to induce weak contact on balls in play), and 0.7 wins for stranding runners. Carry that out over 33 starts, and that is .9 wins due to Deduno's ability to induce weak contact, and 2.4 wins due to his ability to control the run game and pitch well from the stretch. An astounding 3.3 FDP per season, dwarfing Hellickson's 2.3 FDP-wins/season. Is that sustainable? It has been speculated that the key to Deduno's success, despite his walk rate, is the difficulty hitters seem to have in hitting his filthy stuff with good wood. But that appears to be a small part of it. Most of his success is in stranding runners. For comparison, the leader in LOB-wins over the last three years is Ryan Vogelson, with 2.7 LOB-wins combined (.9 / season). So I think its extremely unlikely that Deduno will continue to overcome his walk rates in the future, although I think like others that his .9 BIP-wins / season (current rate, anyway), is definitely achievable. So, add it all up, Deduno's current FIP-produced win rate (measure by WAR), is 0.7. Plus 0.9 BIP-wins, plus, say, a conservative sustainable extimate of LOB-wins at 1.0, and you have a pitcher who has a positive value of 2.6 wins total. This places him between Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza, in comparison to pitchers over the last three years, on the RA9-wins leaderboard. Not the king of FDP, but not in bad company either.

Over the last three seasons, (min 450 IP), Jeremy Hellickson has accumulated 6.8 Fielding dependent wins. FDP wins are calculated based on a pitchers combined ability to limit hard contact on balls in play and strand runners ie. throw strikes from the stretch, limit the running game, etc. Hellickson's 6.8 FDP wins leads all qualified pitchers, by far. Next closest is Jared Weaver, at 5.4 FDP wins. Which brings me to Deduno, who in 10 starts has already accumulate 1.0 FDP-wins. 0.3 of which is owed to BIP-wins (ability to induce weak contact on balls in play), and 0.7 wins for stranding runners. Carry that out over 33 starts, and that is .9 wins due to Deduno's ability to induce weak contact, and 2.4 wins due to his ability to control the run game and pitch well from the stretch. An astounding 3.3 FDP per season, dwarfing Hellickson's 2.3 FDP-wins/season. Is that sustainable? It has been speculated that the key to Deduno's success, despite his walk rate, is the difficulty hitters seem to have in hitting his filthy stuff with good wood. But that appears to be a small part of it. Most of his success is in stranding runners. For comparison, the leader in LOB-wins over the last three years is Ryan Vogelson, with 2.7 LOB-wins combined (.9 / season). So I think its extremely unlikely that Deduno will continue to overcome his walk rates in the future, although I think like others that his .9 BIP-wins / season (current rate, anyway), is definitely achievable. So, add it all up, Deduno's current FIP-produced win rate (measure by WAR), is 0.7. Plus 0.9 BIP-wins, plus, say, a conservative sustainable extimate of LOB-wins at 1.0, and you have a pitcher who has a positive value of 2.6 wins total. This places him between Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza, in comparison to pitchers over the last three years, on the RA9-wins leaderboard. Not the king of FDP, but not in bad company either.

Come on he's tugging on his bill there! Pretty soon he's going to have to walk back to the dugout! Yeah, not a full 100 yard bullpen sprint, but Fat Capps is no Husein Bolt. He's a pitcher! And when you give a pitcher a flare up in the shoulder, he's gonna gain weight. I just hope those crazies in the left field bleachers don't hassle him when he gets back to action. Its going to take probably 4 or 5 saves at least to shed those dimples.

Who should start instead?