Willihammer

Last Friday Terry Ryan spoke to Paul Allen about Free Agency: Free Agency is only one of the 6 most common methods of acquiring talent. The others are the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, Rule 5 Draft, Trades, and Waivers. Using Baseball-references Player registry data, I will examine the Twins' successes at acquiring positional talent via these 6 methods during the period 1995-2013 - the Terry Ryan era. (data here) POSITION PLAYERS The Amateur Draft Since 1995, the Twins have 194 player-seasons from players acquired via the Draft, most of any AL team. They have paid these players a combined $389,248,998, 2nd only to the Yankees. These players have put up an average of 1.26 WAR, good for 6th in the AL. http://i.imgur.com/gKvQamF.png 2. Amateur Free Agency 16 player-seasons have been worth an average of just .26 WAR. Bobby Kielty, Luis Rodriguez, and Luis Rivas own most of those seasons. Josmil Pinto and Oswaldo Arcia own 1 a piece. http://i.imgur.com/BPAcyJd.png 3. Rule 5 Draft Brian Buscher and Jason Pridie are the two Rule 5 position players to stick on the 40 man roster during Ryan's and Smith's tenures. Combined, they provided 0.3 WAR over 5 player-seasons at a cost of just under 2 million. The most active Rule 5 team during this time was the Baltimore Orioles, who kept Jay Gibbons on as DH/outfielder for the 2001-2007 seasons. http://i.imgur.com/pUgIpiT.png 4. Trades The Twins have given 70 player-seasons to players acquired by trade since 1995. Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford, and Christian Guzman accumulated 9.1, 8.4, and 7.4 WARs over 15 player seasons. On the other end, Ron Coomer, David Ortiz, and Alexi Casilla accumulated between 2 and 4 WARs over 6+ seasons each. Overall, the average player-season was worth .54 WAR, last among AL teams (excluding Houston and Milwaukee.) http://i.imgur.com/0M6YzGI.png 5. Waivers The Twins have played 7 Waiver claims in positions 2-9 since 1995. They are (WAR in Parenthesis): Augie Ojeda (1.2), Casey Blake (-0.2), Clete Thomas (0.2), Corky Miller (-0.2), Darin Mastroianni (0.3), Erik Komatsu (-0.2), and Pedro Florimon (3.8). The average waiver claim-season has been worth 0.42 WAR, boosted largely by Florimon's 2013 season which has so far been worth 2.2 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/YQ4cjv5.png 6. Free Agency Since 1995, the Twins have 84 Free Agent position player-seasons. WAR likes Paul Molitor (5.2), Josh Willingham (3.9) and Jamey Carroll the most (3.5). On the other end are Rondell White (-1.5), Butch Huskey (-1.0), and Kevin Maas (-0.8). Overall, the Twins average a 0.38 WAR season from Free Agent position players. This is the worst average in the AL (excluding Houston and Milwaukee). Interestingly, they also pay their Free Agents the least of any AL team. http://i.imgur.com/MxJJnAt.png So, in order of average WAR, the Twins' most successful means of positional talent acquisition under Terry Ryan (and 4 seasons of Bill Smith): 1. Amateur Draft (1.26 WAR) 2. Trades (0.54) 3. Waivers (0.42) 4. Free Agency (0.37) 5. Amateur Free Agency (0.26) 6. Rule 5 Draft (0.06) *Note about the Salary figures - rather than look up days spent on the active roster for all the minimum wagers, I assumed they were paid a full season's worth. Therefore salary figures are a little inflated, specially for waivers, rule 5, and amateur draft guys.

I'm much more willing to roll with short benches offensively than conventional wisdom dictates though. We have mounds of data that prove that on average, if you take anyone off the bench cold and ask him to pinch hit, well, the effect is the opposite of relief picthing. They stink. They take a horrible penalty, worse than the platoon penalty for the starter he's PH-ing for, in most cases. So the primary reason to keep bench players is as pinch runners, defensive replacements, and injury backups, IMO. If you had couple Eduardo Escobars in your system, guys you could stick anywhere in a pinch, then you could roll with a 14 man pitching staff. That gives you 10 relievers. I think it would be a viable strategy at that point (provided the bullpen guys are, you know, real MLB Pitchers).

Its an interesting strategy. I was a little skeptical of the assumption that a lousy group of starters like ours gets through 5 IP every day, esp. only facing lineups twice. Because as it is, with a 5 man rotation and 100 pitch count limit, the 2013 Twins starting staff is averaging less than 5.2 IP per start. I pulled some stats. These include 3rd and 4th time through the order, so they are a little skewed, but as a staff, the Pitches per PA and Whip are this [TABLE=width: 200] PPA WHIP 3.814 1.522 [/TABLE] That's 4.522 batters per inning, and 17.25 pitches per inning on average. If you take them out after 2 trips through the order, that would only equate to roughly 4 innings. If you change the criteria to Pitch count, instead of trips through the lineup, you see this: Split BA OBP SLG OPS Pitch 1-25 .258 .314 .395 .708 Pitch 26-50 .292 .338 .438 .775 Pitch 51-75 .274 .342 .424 .765 Pitch 76-100 .318 .374 .490 .864 Pitch 101+ .328 .418 .517 .935 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 9/7/2013. Not surprisingly, the same problem shows up. it would require over 86 pitches to get through 5, on average. That's 11 pitches or so too many. So, realistically, you'd be asking your bullpen to complete innings 5-9. A 6 inning guaranteed workload on 9 guys. Sounds taxing, but maybe it could be done. See the days rest splits: Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS 0 DaysGR 247 .235 .313 .304 .617 1 DayGR 607 .227 .299 .345 .644 2 DaysGR 437 .222 .282 .365 .647 3 DaysGR 365 .269 .316 .424 .740 4 DaysGR 155 .210 .265 .343 .607 5 DaysGR 39 .237 .256 .421 .677 6+ DaysGR 128 .231 .278 .274 .551 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 9/7/2013. Probably skewed a little because the guys pitching back to back are limited to the back end guys (Fien, Burton, Perkins). We really don't know much (or I don't know much) about optimal rest days and pitch counts for relievers. If you can get away with throwing these guys 4-6 days a week, for 15-25 pitch stints, then it would be a very intriguing strategy. I'm a little dubious about the ability to get through that kind of guaranteed workload over the course of a season though.

Great line.

Since 2006, 851 players have logged at least 200 PAs in the Florida State League (High A). This is a sample of players that includes guys like Giancarlo Stanton (age 19), Jay Bruce (20), JP Arencibia (22), Allen Craig (22), and Domonic Brown (21). Another 746 have logged at least 200 PAs in the Eastern League (AA) since 2006. Players include Brandon Belt (22), Matt Wieters (22), Pedro Alvarez (22), Ike Davis (22), Kevin Kouzmanoff (24), Josh Reddick (22), Carlos Santana (23), Brennan Boesch (24), and Adam Lind (22). Miguel Sano has logged 200 PAs in both leagues. He's also put up the single highest ISO since fangraphs started tracking these statistics in 2006. In both leagues. Here's a quick look at the top 50 performances, by ISO: http://i.imgur.com/n2om1ZW.png?1 5 players posted .250 or better ISO seasons at age 20 or younger in the Florida State League. Of these, only Giancarlo Stanton went on to post a better ISO in AA as a 20 year old in the Southern League (although Javier Baez is holding a .352 ISO through 194 PAs, also in the Southern league). As stated above the sample includes all players with a minimum of 200 PAs in either league. If a player hit a lot of gap triples and bloop doubles, ISO could be measuring speed more than power (ISO is Slg%-Avg, or total bases, not including 1st base, divided by ABs). In order to eliminate that possibility, we can just look at home run rate, expressed as AB/HR. http://i.imgur.com/pBT7I0K.png?1 Sano ranks 2nd and 4th in home run rates (tops for the EL) since 2006. If you have been following Sano's year, this shouldn't be a surprise - he has 31 bombs after all. So there you have it. Sano's 2013 ranks among the top power seasons in both the Eastern League and the Florida State League dating back to 2006, in just about any way you care to measure power. And he's done it at a younger age than anyone except Giancarlo Stanton.

Its certainly an intriguing idea on paper. He's only 34, we all know how good he is when healthy. Problem is, you'd need a qualified medical person to look him over, his surgery history, and figure out if that shoulder is physically capable of performing at a high level again. I'm not sure if the Twins have any of those.

Is that a football term too?

Sano's hit 30 HRs in 2013. His HR rate has actually climbed since being promoted. He's 20 years, 3 months and 3 days old. At this point is it safe to say Sano has the highest floor of any prospect the Twins have had since Mauer?

Yeah I guess with Beltran in RF that helped push the Mets over the top probably. By the way, Carlos Beltran, HoFamer?

I wouldn't doubt its harder for an umpire to stare over a 6' 5" frame than a 6 foot one. According to umpire.org: Emphasis mine. Shorter catchers would be able to crouch lower, allowing umpires to crouch lower, giving them a better view of low pitches and presumably call more strikes down there.

Dirty little fact that probably doesn't mean anything: The 2012 Twins were a better than .500 ballclub in the 33 games where Butera started at catcher. I was a little surprised to see Mauer had showed up on the wrong side of the 7/26 week's framing leaderboards. Parker's already pointed out how Mauer doesn't get many low strikes, but if he isn't getting the side to side strikes or the high strikes anymore, then there's even less reason to keep him crouching on that twice surgically repaired left knee. I think with Morneau leaving, and Mauer going into his age 31 season, the time is ripe to take a shot at a David Ross or Jose Molina this offseason while these elite framers are still cheap. Then shift Mauer into the primary 1B / backup C role once and for all.

Miguel Sano at Minor League Central Select year. He has maintained very small splits throughout and I would agree this is a very good sign.

Yes, yes he is.

I'd love to get a 40 yard dash time on Hicks. People keep saying he takes long strides, and that what we perceive as slowness is an optical illusion but I'm not sure I buy that.

If Plouffe's not a good bunter, then why give the Indians free strikes attempting and probably failing to bunt? I like Plouffe to be swinging there.

It is an interesting story. Might there have been a subconscious link between the trade demand, the immediate success with the Yankees, and the yips? I mean, guy requests a trade in 97, gets traded, plays 2B in '98 for the Yankees, wins a WS, plays 2B all of 99, and wins another world series? Is there a little leprechaun that shows up at that point and starts whispering in his ear "well that was easy, wasn't it?"

Man, that is a pretty lousy list of batters who've floated on the to-switch-hit-or-not-to-switch-hit bubble.

5.11 ERA

If there's anyone in the org with nothing left to prove in the minor leagues, I would think its Richardson.

And here I thought "refract" meant "nap." After reading these rankings, I was left asking myself "whose rookie card price could possibly rank higher than Joe Mauer's?" A champion must be crowned!

TIL GH is short for Ron Gardenhire

For all the mods encouragement of people to blog, its a small crime that nobody front paged this one. A+ post. My thoughts: A. Its time to start referring to Jordan Zimmerman as an ace. Which gives the Nats, what, 3 aces when everyone's healthy? B. I'm just not buying that Florimon's current numbers reflect his true talent, but I don't really have any statistical backing for that opinion. His plate discipline has improved for the 2nd straight year. His defense has been fine (this past weekend notwithstanding). Even his BABIP could stand to gain a few points probably. But my eyes are telling me that he is Alexi Casilla 2.0. Hope I'm wrong. C. Parmelee. I've been a skeptic all along and I really hope the Twins don't bend any further over finding a way to get him playing time. The overwhelming majority of his professional career has been mediocre, save a few hot weeks in AAA in 2012. But even Clete Thomas can get hot for a few weeks in AAA. I hope neither of those guys stops Arcia getting a full share of playing time now that his shoulder's better. D. I watched a few of Liriano's starts, including one a few weeks ago where he struck out 7 in a row, tie-ing a Pirates franchise record. He's still filthy, his changeup has been especially filthy this year, but he still falls behind out of the stretch more than he should. He has been bailed out on more than one ocassion by Clint Hurdle's shifts though. That said, he has been nearly unhittable out of the windup. Side note, I'm going to go ahead and predict Hurdle for MoY in the NL right now. The Pirates are a good team.

As we're all aware, step 4 of the 21 Point Plan to More Twins Wins! is upon us. Step 4 of course is the first of a subseries of steps which looks at how the Twins AAAA bubble guys figure to fit into the next wave of All Star talent currently playing in Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers. Dozier, Hicks, Parmelee, Plouffe, Florimon, Gibson, Deduno, DeVries, and Hendriks. In Step 4, we isolate the position players. Smarter minds than I have calculated that the 150 PA plateau marks the point where we can say with a high degree of reliability what a guy's final scores will be at the end of the season in several metrics. Namely: Swing% (50 PAs) Contact % (100 PAs) K rate, LD rate, and pitches/PA Here is how our bubble guys weigh in: http://i.imgur.com/eMxs0wv.png So, if these figures hold reasonably stable for the remainder of 2013, do we pencil these guys in for step 21? Who gets cut?

As we're all aware, step 4 of the 21 Point Plan to More Twins Wins! is upon us. Step 4 of course is the first of a subseries of steps which looks at how the Twins AAAA bubble guys figure to fit into the next wave of All Star talent currently playing in Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers. Dozier, Hicks, Parmelee, Plouffe, Florimon, Gibson, Deduno, DeVries, and Hendriks. In Step 4, we isolate the position players. Smarter minds than I have calculated that the 150 PA plateau marks the point where we can say with a high degree of reliability what a guy's final scores will be at the end of the season in several metrics. Namely: Swing% (50 PAs) Contact % (100 PAs) K rate, LD rate, and pitches/PA Here is how our bubble guys weigh in: http://i.imgur.com/eMxs0wv.png So, if these figures hold reasonably stable for the remainder of 2013, do we pencil these guys in for step 21? Who gets cut?