As we're all aware, step 4 of the 21 Point Plan to More Twins Wins! is upon us. Step 4 of course is the first of a subseries of steps which looks at how the Twins AAAA bubble guys figure to fit into the next wave of All Star talent currently playing in Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers. Dozier, Hicks, Parmelee, Plouffe, Florimon, Gibson, Deduno, DeVries, and Hendriks. In Step 4, we isolate the position players.

Smarter minds than I have calculated that the 150 PA plateau marks the point where we can say with a high degree of reliability what a guy's final scores will be at the end of the season in several metrics. Namely:

• Swing% (50 PAs)
  
• Contact % (100 PAs)
  
• K rate, LD rate, and pitches/PA
  

Here is how our bubble guys weigh in:

http://i.imgur.com/eMxs0wv.png

So, if these figures hold reasonably stable for the remainder of 2013, do we pencil these guys in for step 21? Who gets cut?

Hicks is guaranteed and they probably like Dozier's defense enough to keep him around. If Plouffe can just stay healthy, that would help him. Parmelee was messed with and now is in trouble.

I am pleasantly surprised at Plouffe's Line Drive rate and his contact %.

For that matter, Parmelee has a pretty good LD rate.

Not sure exactly what to make of it, but I find it encouraging regarding both of them.

It looks to me like Plouffe is on pretty solid ground. Dozier and Parmelee have work to do and Hicks is a long way from being satisfactory.