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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Suicide by cop is a definite possibility. Just let the facts roll in. Too early to crucify anyone.
  2. Willihammer
    Greatest ever, no doubt about it. http://www.angelfire.com/wa/nwfishing/bobber1.gif
  3. Willihammer
    2nd tier players for a 2nd tier organization.
  4. Willihammer
    Looks like Vargas fouled another ball of his foot yesterday and could hit the DL. http://www.startribune.com/updates-on-buxton-vargas-and-mauer-after-loss-to-astros/434617393/
  5. Willihammer
    Thought this was interesting. According to Bob Nightingale, the Cubs first target was Michael Fulmer. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/07/13/white-sox-cubs-cold-war-jose-quintana-trade/476409001/#
  6. Willihammer
    If my back of the napkin math is right, Quintana is projected to provide around $118m in surplus value. Using FA values from here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/
  7. Willihammer
    Katoh+ projections for the specs involved in the trade: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-prospects-in-the-jose-quintana-trade/ For comparison Quintana is projected to be worth about 13 WAR including the 2nd half of 2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-41-to-50/
  8. Willihammer
    I admit I hadn't heard of any of these prospects until today but on paper it doesn't seem that steep a price. One elite OF prospect in high-A, a good pitching prospect in A-ball, and a couple throw ins. Seems light if anything. If the Twins couldn't match that, after all the losing of the past decade almost, because of an unwillingness to spend on amateurs, then I don't know what to say. It seems like the ROI from amateur spending ought to be exactly how a spendthrift ownership group would plan to be competitive, if they cared about being competitive at all.
  9. Willihammer
    Is there any way you could find and post that link?
  10. Willihammer
    According to that, his curve has gotten a bit more slurvy but it hasn't changed that much. Opponents are only slugging .330 off it. But they're hammering his sinker. Maybe a victim of the uppercut evolution? He's also abandoned the cutter for some reason. Wonder why. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=500779&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=slg&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=07/12/2017
  11. Willihammer
    3 team trade?
  12. Willihammer
    The other name to keep in mind is Julio Teheran. Declining velo, declining swinging strike rates + cheap contract should make him the top target for the Twins in any deadline trade I would think.
  13. Willihammer
    Some fire starting to show under all that Russia smoke. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/11/donald-trump-jr-emails-full-text-russia-rob-goldstone
  14. Willihammer
    Its not a perfect comp as I said. Point is, sometimes teams pay extreme prices at the deadline. And also that teams do pay for guys who are screaming for regression. If the return is great enough then it doesn't need to be MLB-ready pitching necessarily. The Twins can then (theoretically) re-balance for pitching in the offseason, and roll Santana's contract into signing another FA or two.
  15. Willihammer
    The reason a pitching starved team like the Twins should trade their best pitcher is deadline premium. Its not a perfect comp but the Jeff Samardzija/Hammel trade comes to mind. Both pitchers were in the middle of career seasons and outperforming their career norms and peripherals when they were traded. I think pretty much everyone thought at the time that the Athletics paid a hefty premium to make their (failed) playoff push. Nobody knows that a buyer like that is out there this season, obviously. But if there is, then its fair to hope the Twins would be sellers in that case.
  16. Willihammer
    I think this is a definite possibility. Looking ahead to the FA class, there are a good number of RH hitting outfielders - Lorenzo Cain, JD Martinez, Bautista, Eric Young Jr, Colby Rasmus, etc. who could be reasonably cheap upgrades. If Buxton + prospect package could bring back a controlled starter, I think you pull the trigger on that for sure, assuming Granite doesn't totally fall on his face defensively.
  17. Willihammer
    Mejia could have gone 7, maybe 7.1 if he had fielded his position at a professional level. Very fieldable bunt hit in the first by Rickard and a failed pickoff gone into right field later in the game. Am I forgetting anything? Seems like he leaves an out or two on the table every start.
  18. Willihammer
    I do wonder if pitchers throwing higher in the zone has lead to more backspin off the bat and greater carry.
  19. Willihammer
    Do you remember the source?
  20. Willihammer
    Yes, it is confusing. The Twins being listed first in the matchup whether they are home or on the road is unclear and unconventional.
  21. Willihammer
    Evidently there's a game thread title "policy" that requires the Twins be listed first in the title. This defies convention across sports where the away team is listed first and the home team is listed second. Can we change the policy to conform with convention? Its information I like to know and am confused by the current format.
  22. Willihammer
    @ Respy 1. This theory has been raised and studied. The climate isn't the cause. 2. Studies show increasing home runs per fly ball hit. They also show that balls hit with the same launch and exit velo in 2016/2017 were more likely to leave the park than in 2014/early 2015. 3. The bottom of the zone has been shrinking, and the height of the average four seem fastball is higher now than in prior years. 4. See #2 5. See #2
  23. Willihammer
    Reading over the Ringer article again there is a link to this article from May describing the results of MLB's 2016 and Feb 2017 testing of balls. According to that, the ball didn't significantly change from 2014-2016. And yet there are articles like this that take Statcast data on velocities and calculate drag coefficients from 2013 to 2017, and their conclusions don't match MLB's. Not to mention the Lindbergh/Lichtman independent study of 2014-2016 game balls obtained via ebay that found increasing COR during that time period.
  24. Willihammer
    It was the ringer article, and its 49 feet. What I don't understand is why MLB would compare the 2017 ball to the 2016 ball, when the HR spike started after the ASG in 2015. Even if the balls are 100% identical that doesn't refute the juiced ball conspiracy theory.
  25. Willihammer
    MLB released a 30 team memo saying the 2017 ball is essentially the same as the 2016 ball. Didn't the homer spike start last year though? Or 2nd half of 2015? http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/report-mlb-sends-30-team-memo-saying-there-is-no-evidence-baseballs-are-juiced/
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