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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    The Twins have a decent track record when it comes to first extensions, and a terrible one when it comes to second extensions, so I'm probably biased. But I wouldn't extend Dozier a second time for the kind of deal I think he'd want- something in the 4 year 60+m range I reckon. Too many times it seems to bite us in the ass (Morneau, Mauer, Perkins, Hughes come to mind.)
  2. Willihammer
    This is all perfectly consistent with the Twins standing policy of developing players in one role in the minors, and changing it at the ML level. Don't see what all the hubbubs about.
  3. Willihammer
    I understand the conventional wisdom and agree that speed should serve as a tiebreaker if we're talking about two similarly productive bats. But we're not. If Buxton turns into a better hitter than Dozier I'll be right there with you asking that he bat higher in the order. That is a huge if. In the more likely event Buxton isn't the better hitter then having him bat at the top of the order comes at a direct cost of PAs to better hitters, namely Dozier and probably Sano and 1-2 others at minimum. Look at any team season in baseball history and you will find a descending number of PAs in the lineup, usually 15-20 PA's per slot.
  4. Willihammer
    Do you think Buxton should bat leadoff before or after he deserves to? Do you think he deserves to now? There is a tradeoff for moving hitters around in the lineup. An example, the 1998 Twins. http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/SNG0X Otis Nixon played center field and was a "speed" guy, so he owned the leadoff spot while Matt Lawton played (mostly) in a corner and batted third or lower. Lawton hit .864. Nixon hit .705. The leadoff man had 66 more PAs than the 3 hitter. Almost a hundred more than the #6 guy, where Lawton spent 29 games. I don't know how many runs batting Nixon ahead of Lawton cost the Twins that year, but it certainly cost them some. In the first inning they scored 90 runs. In the 4th and 7th they scored 95 and 98. Why? Could it be that Nixon got a much smaller share of the PAs in those innings? In every other sport the best players are given the most minutes. Not in baseball. Baseball is uniquely able to think itself into keeping its best players on the bench longer than absolutely required. Its mind boggling.
  5. Willihammer
    Or literally, anyone else on the team, with the possible exception of Castro.
  6. Willihammer
    In what universe does it make sense to give Buxton more PAs than Dozier?
  7. Willihammer
    Hughes definitely throws a curve too. He hasn't thrown a slider since 2013. He swapped it for the cutter.
  8. Willihammer
    Not this year, the player didn't approve that proposal.
  9. Willihammer
    Yeah I almost swerved into a median when I heard that. Thing is, Molitor wants Castro to play 120 games. He wants him to be the main guy. Ok, it just so happens the Twins will face a righty about 115-120 times per season. I get that there are day game after night games and whatnot but the situation screams for a platoon as much as possible.
  10. Willihammer
    Caught that. Provus also mentioned Castro's career .190 batting average against lefties and asked if a platoon was an option. Molitor gave kind of a weird answer. He said that he'd be okay with a catcher who is 2 for 12 with a 3 run homer and run scoring single. A guy who can produce runs even with a low batting average. Which doesn't describe Castro against lefties at all (.097 ISO).
  11. Willihammer
    If JD Martinez is right, then pitchers are starting to counter the uppercut swing with high four seemers. A level swing should do better against those than an uppercut.
  12. Willihammer
    And the follow up today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cure-for-the-home-run-era/
  13. Willihammer
    Maybe this is a silly question but given the past 48 hours in the Twins Cities, and the Tropical Storm level wind, it crossed my mind. What happens when a player gets beaned and injured because he couldn't see the ball coming because he had a piece of dirt blow into his eye and he was in a 2 strike count and couldn't call time?
  14. Willihammer
    According to fangraphs, Hughes knuckle curve averages 76.6 mph. If the curve is at 74 then that would be consistent with reports that his fastball is 2-3 mph behind also. Which is more evidence that he isn't where he needs to be. It doesn't take very long to see that Hughes bread and butter is the 4 seemer. It gets a good number of whiffs and popups, and lazy fly balls. But mostly it gets fouls. If he loses even a tick or two, it stands to reason he will lose a bit of rise too, and all the swings will be a little more squared up. With more fly balls going for HRs, more popups turning into FB's, and more fouls turning into BIPs.
  15. Willihammer
    Pretty lousy bullpen still, and I doubt Ausmus is the guy to get it to play up. I predict a disappointing 2017 in typical lead-blowing Tigers fashion.
  16. Willihammer
    Seems to be a fair number of analysts saying the SEC will shoot down the ETF.
  17. Willihammer
    Reviews Wright's delivery too. Sees some elevated injury potential with him too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlPn_dGlmqI
  18. Willihammer
    Thought this was interesting. This guy thinks Bukauskas' delivery puts his UCL at risk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gFBFdVIZFU
  19. Willihammer
    Kind of amazing Hughes got through a lineup with Jones, Trumbo, Machado, and Davis with 1 strikeout.
  20. Willihammer
    Wouldn't the counternarrative be, that pitchers are ahead of batters in ST?
  21. Willihammer
    I wonder if the Twins would be able to find a college hitter like the Cubs did with Schwarber, pay him 3-4m at #1 than take 2 more ~20-ish talents at 35 and 37 with #15 type slot money.
  22. Willihammer
    For my own sake here are slot values into the 2nd round, since the Twins pick at 35 and 37. 7 $4,777,000 Diamondbacks 8 $4,552,300 Phillies 9 $4,352,000 Brewers 10 $4,168,000 Angels 11 $3,998,900 White Sox 12 $3,839,600 Pirates 13 $3,690,900 Marlins 14 $3,549,800 Royals 15 $3,417,000 Astros 16 $3,293,600 Yankees 17 $3,174,200 Mariners 18 $3,061,200 Tigers 19 $2,953,700 Giants 20 $2,851,600 Mets 21 $2,754,400 Orioles 22 $2,661,800 Blue Jays 23 $2,573,800 Dodgers 24 $2,489,800 Red Sox 25 $2,409,700 Nationals 26 $2,333,200 Rangers 27 $2,260,100 Cubs 28 $2,193,000 Blue Jays 29 $2,132,100 Rangers 30 $2,080,100 Cubs 31 $2,033,000 Rays 32 $1,985,000 Reds 33 $1,936,500 Athletics 34 $1,889,000 Brewers 35 $1,843,000 Twins 36 $1,798,700 Marlins 37 $1,758,000.00 Twins 38 $1,716,800 Reds 39 $1,676,700 Padres 40 $1,632,700 Rays 41 $1,594,700 Braves 42 $1,557,500 Pirates 43 $1,521,100 Athletics 44 $1,485,700 Diamondbacks 45 $1,451,100 Phillies
  23. Willihammer
    Re: TSLA, I still like it. I'd buy more if I could. A lot is being made about the Goldman Sachs downgrade. I think they'll probably miss 2017 production targets but they won't lose all their pre-orders even if some folks miss out on government incentives. Barring anything unforseen the 3 will still be priced competitively. And TSLA's are a lot sexier than GM's or Nissans. The other thing to keep in mind is TSLA has the strongest position in terms of the rest of the EV ecosystem with the supercharging network, solar panels, batteries, etc. They just have to spin up some cash and then folks will be locked in. It might come a little later than expected but they'll get there eventually.
  24. Willihammer
    The ETF is an interesting angle. I didn't realize that was in the works. I could see a short-term bump from that.
  25. Willihammer
    Alright, why should bitcoin outperform gold, t-bills, the USD, or other safe havens?
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