Willihammer

Could be. But again, we don't know their price point. Could be an extra $100 or $200k would have changed their minds. Have to think at some point counsel would step in and say, "take the money kid." This is turning into a tangent but what a sh-t show the 2008 draft was. 5/6 of the best players were took, we didn't sign. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=MIN&year_ID=2008&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

Yeah, they can go up to 5% over their pool without any penalty. $700k or so. Of course I don't know the exact price points for every player the Twins will draft this year. All I know is every year there are guys they take and don't sign. How nice would it be to have Kolten Wong or George Springer? Or Brent Rooker, who they may very well end up drafting again, and paying anyways. It seems clear that to stop these guys going to college you have to be willing to spend more than a couple hundred grand over slot sometimes.

I think you answer your own question in the first paragraph. I don't want the Twins to draft the next Barry Bonds in the 2nd round and watch him go to college because they couldn't come up with an extra $5k. Which is exactly what happened when the Giants drafted him in 1982. They couldn't quite get the high school kids to make that assessment about his future in baseball and life that favors him going to the pros. Or Randy Johnson, Mark Texeira, Tim Lincecum, etc. We're not that far apart- I too want the Twins to draft someoneo at the very top of their board. Where we differ is I think given the bonus rules, price has to be a bigger consideration. There is value to be had later in the draft -if you can sign it.

I don't think the Twins should necessarily play bonus pool games with later picks either, as in reaching up for a first round guy with their 3rd round pick or something. If the opportunity is there, go for it, but priority one IMO should be to sign everyone they draft. That involves saving some money so that if they get the next one of these guys they have the spending power to snatch them from the cold ivory jaws of college. BTW if you want the Twins to spend freely with the top pick, then you probably want them to take one of the HS kids. College guys typically are cheaper.

If it were up to me there would be two guys in play at 1-1: Lewis and Adell. They have to get value out of #1 and these guys provide the best combination of risk, projectability, and price. Lewis: his price is capped because he's a 2nd tier guy ranked n the 4-7 range on most mocks. He's the 5th youngest HS position player among the MLB.com's top 100, and will be 18 years and 1 week old on draft day; we know there's an inefficiency with these guys. And, he's a UC Irvine commit- not considered to be an elite program. His risk is capped because he's not a pitcher. He plays an up the middle position. Projectability- if scouts are right then the sky is the limit because the industry loves him as a 5 tool, projection guy. Adell: his price is capped because he's a 3rd tier guy ranked in the 9-22 range on most mocks. The industry wide concern about swing and miss tendencies is keeping a lid on his stock price. However in actual games he clubbed 24 HRs against 9 strikeouts. He's the 7th youngest prep bat among the top 100 and will be just over 18 years, 2 months on draft day, which again, is a bit of an inefficiency. On the downside, he's he's a Louisville commit. That's a top program and could raise his price. Risk- position player, up the middle guy. Projection- Best all-around tools in the draft according to MLB.com. His in-game production is tops in the country. I'd estimate Lewis' signing bonus to be around $1.50-$1.75 less than the $7.77 slot. For comparison I'm looking at Brendan Rodgers who in 2015 was generally considered a fringe top tier guy and was taken third by the Rockies, who signed him for $5.50, which was $1.22 under slot. Rodgers was a Texas A&M commit which is a more prestigious school than UC-Irvine. For Adell, I'm looking at Clint Frazier as a comp. Considered among the best prep bats of his class, he was mocked around #7-9, and drafted #5 by the Indians who signed him for $3.5M, which was $0.29 under slot. Frazier was a Georgia commit, not the most prestigious program, but managed to get a strong bonus from the Indians. With that in mind I'd guess savings for Adell would be capped at #4 slot money- a pick or two above his highest mock position. #4 slot is $6.15m, and would be $1.62 under slot. A guy like Wright or McKay would almost certainly come as cheap, and possibly cheaper than these two. But the risk part of the equation is less favorable IMO, particularly for Wright who is a one-way player. Ceiling is also lower for both, although some scouts are in love with McKay's bat. To me, you try to get more savings at 35, possibly by taking Rooker. Bank another $0.50 if possible. Then use the ~$2.00 to spam a bunch of high school arms in the following rounds.

Its National Doughnut day! Get a free one https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/06/01/national-doughnut-day-free-donuts-krispy-kreme-dunkin-donuts/361383001/#

Nobody?

Winner. They're a cover band, at best.

Yeah I dunno. I was hoping Part Two looked at pitchers, but it doesn't. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15306

Just to finish the thought, I added the college commitments to the table of youngest HS position players. Color coded for program prestige as ranked here. Maybe gives a rough idea of signability.

I don't think it would be much trouble. But, even if is, that savings can come in handy later too. Checkout this review of the 2015 draft. One in eight picks taken in rounds 11-20 didn't sign. Righthanded high school pitchers were particularly difficult to sign later in the draft. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/17/8996381/unsigned-mlb-draft-picks-first-20-rounds-2015

After reading that I went through MLB's top 100 draft prospects. Here are the youngest HS position players: Player Pos DOB Mark Vientos 3B 12/11/1999 Heliot Ramos OF 9/7/1999 Hunter Greene SS 8/6/1999 Quentin Holmes OF 7/7/1999 Royce Lewis SS/OF 6/5/1999 Adam Hall SS 5/22/1999 Jo Adell OF 4/8/1999 Ryan Vilade 3B 2/18/1999 Calvin Mitchell OF 1/8/1999 Chris Seise SS 1/6/1999 Drew Waters OF 12/30/1998 Sam McMillan C 12/1/1998 MJ Melendez C 11/29/1998 Austin Beck OF 11/21/1998 Nick Allen SS 10/8/1998 Nick Pratto 1B 10/6/1998 Hagen Danner C 9/30/1998 Luis Campusano C 9/29/1998 Mason House OF 9/10/1998 Daniel Cabrera OF 9/5/1998 Garrett Mitchell OF 9/4/1998 Tristen Lutz OF 8/22/1998 Cole Brannen OF 8/4/1998 Jeter Downs SS 7/27/1998 Bubba Thompson OF 6/9/1998 Jacob Pearson OF 6/1/1998 Brady McConnell SS 5/24/1998 Connor Uselton OF 5/20/1998

Came across this article on the importance of age in projecting performance. Its a few year old but damn interesting. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295

Right. For anyone wondering why Smith is getting a look, the reason is his price would be significantly less than most others being talked about for 1-1. If we're trying to get max value out of the draft as a whole, it doesn't necessarily make sense to take the BPA starting with the first pick. Most would agree that isn't Smith. Question, what if Smith would sign for $4m? Ie. #10 money? What about $3.5m (#15 slot)? How low would the price have to be for the pick to make sense?

Smith has trimmed his k-rate, increased his walk rate, and power in every season at Virginia. Faedo's k-rate is falling and his bb-rate rising. There might still be more upside with Faedo but the trends are worse.

Interesting point. Wouldn't you say that the ultra low strikeout numbers and rave reviews about his hit tool make him an above average candidate to successfully make the transition to a bat with a smaller sweet spot?

Go for it.

Was this posted already? http://m.mlb.com/news/article/232578752/pipeline-podcast-twins-have-no-1-draft-pick/

Movement and deception are more important on a changeup. I still wonder what impact if any the cutter is having on his top FB velo. In any case, the fact McKay's losing velo deeper into games isn't good.

I was watching Bill Nye Saves the World on Netflix and heard one of those numbers about the universe. The number of stars in the cosmos is approximately equal to the number of grains of sand on planet earth. Times ten.

What if they draft Greene 1-1 though.

This was a team effort but Molitor deserves some blame. In order of importance 1. Yet another poor effort from Gibson who has proven time and again that he isn't good enough to be a starter on a winning ballclub. 2. Kennys Vargas was totally overmatched by Odorizzi's curveball. I think I counted six whiffs on that pitch alone tonight. Just embarassing AB's. 3. Kintzler blew a 2-run lead. He's been alright most other nights though so I give him a pass on this one. 4. Escobar up and 2 outs in the bottom of the (11th?) with the bases empty, and Sano sat on the bench. This one's squarely on Molitor. Sano could have won the game with one swing. Failing that, he takes over at third. If the game turns into a marathon (like it did) he gets 1-2 more PAs. Instead, Escobar ended the inning. 5. With the bases juiced and the score tied in the 13th(?) NOW Mollie goes to Sano. We only needed one run! Grossman and his .415 OBP sat on the bench while Sano struck out trying to hit a pointless grand slam. This is on Molitor and Sano. 6. Everyone not named Mauer left 1,482 runners in scoring position.

I bet Vargas had 10 swings and misses today. His AB's against Odorizzi were particularly pathetic. Unacceptable from a DH. Grossman >>>>>>>>>> Vargas.

Good enough for me. Later yall

Oi