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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Not sure about Cora or Kapler. Neither has much coaching experience, right? After two years of Mollie, I'd like us not to go with another noob. Maybe Alomar? I like Dave Martinez personally.
  2. Willihammer
    Not sure if relevant to the 2016 race but I was thinking of the 2012 season when Cabrera won the triple crown and Trout had him beat by multiple WARs, and the MVP went to Cabrera, and everyone was outraged, but then a few weeks after the vote an Oakland A's official somewhat quietly said their internal calculation of value gave Cabrera the edge? Any guesses as to where the A's found the additional value?
  3. Willihammer
    Looks like the S&P is up 35% since Apr 2013 but the Nasdaq is up 60.86%. Nasdaq has been going crazy for a while now. Can it continue to outperform the S&P? Both figures don't account for dividends.
  4. Willihammer
    Yeah my gains aren't that good. I made some rookie mistakes when I first started ~2 years ago, leveraged ETFs and penny stocks, stuff like that. Watched my hard earned cash turn to dust. But have built a base of some index funds that more or less mirror the S&P since then. If you don't track your portfolio on google finance, I suggest you start. You can always compare to the SPX to see how your stockpicking compares to throwing darts at the market with a blindfold on (which is surprisingly hard to beat). Of course a 3 year sample of, I'm guessing, 5-10 stocks isnt' going to be a very statistically strong case one way or the other.
  5. Willihammer
    http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Bill-Murray-Laughs-Then-Turns-Sad.gif
  6. Willihammer
    No, it would have been speculative. But, hardly surprising with all the M&A going on that they did materialize.
  7. Willihammer
    I'm sure you're right but intangibles like the brand value count for something and you wouldn't have had to hold until an actual sale of the company. Just rumors of a sale were enough to cause the price to spike.
  8. Willihammer
    Speaking of short-term play- should have bought into TWTR last spring. Damn I knew they seemed to cheap to stay down there. Should have pulled the trigger. Oh well.
  9. Willihammer
    The VW CEO Martin Winterkorn stepped down after the diesel cheating. I bought in last August when it tanked, sold half but kept the other half. Lots of upside remaining IMO. They're going to move hard into EVs and I think that might allow them to get around some of the fees. Even if they have to pay them I think they'll do okay. I'm staying away from banks. I just don't see where they'll have the margins for a few years yet. But if you want to get into financials I'd look at medium sized regionals like FRC.
  10. Willihammer
    Holding is probably the right call but as I'm sure you're aware, if we get another risk-off period like last Jan-Feb stocks like AMZN/NFLX/TSLA and others are going to have an outsided drop compared to the SPX. Most of those stocks took a ~15-25% hit greater than the rest of the market, although they rebounded as good or better in some cases. Personally I would keep a close eye on the Deutche Bank business. Some people think there is a real chance of them going under.
  11. Willihammer
    Improving from a .360 team to a .500 team in 2017 is a very fair goal. They stand to gain 8-10 wins just by having normal sequencing "luck" and cleaning up the defense / fundamentals. That leaves 14-15 wins to get to .500. And if they're going to make a push in 2018, they will need season ticket sales to recover, and that will require improvements in the W-L next year.
  12. Willihammer
    Agree with your overall point but owing to the fact that FP is one of the few stats we have for minor leaguers, what alternative do you suggest? I'd suggest we can glean something from FP by weighing FP against RF/9, for the reason you hint at above- because it gives a clue as to the difficulty of the average play resulting from the range/athleticism of the fielder. Greater range => more difficult plays. Dozier, for exmaple, had fairly strong RF/9 and FP% at SS. So did Plouffe. Suggesting decent conversion of plays that were a high average difficulty. Both were moved off the position after reaching the majors. Polanco's RF/9 and FP% are both lower AND he was moved off SS earlier (AAA).
  13. Willihammer
    Please, please, please move on from Ryan-Antony. Clean slate.
  14. Willihammer
    Both this year and last have been outliers in terms of baseruns. Just by having *no* luck next year, the pitching staff would make up 30 runs. Another ~50 by not playing guys out of position and losing Suzuki. The offense is due for 10 runs of sequencing regression. That's 9 wins. That makes them a 68 win team without changing a thing. Can they gain another 20 through internal improvement in an offseason? Doubtful. They would need a lot of turnover to achieve that, and probably some good luck to boot. And as we saw in 2015, good luck happens. You can't bank on it but should be prepared in case it hits you IMO.
  15. Willihammer
    Yeah. Oppoents have a .321 BABIP against us. The staff has underperformed their peripherals by 80 runs if not more, and counting. The lowest tech, most cost efficient way to improve the pitching, is to improve the defense. Lucky for the Twins, they have improvements all around the 40 man already. Plouffe, Escobar, Rosario, etc. They just need a catcher. Boom, that's what, 50 runs, easily?
  16. Willihammer
    Santiago has the highest k-rate of the group (excluding Mejia) career-wise.
  17. Willihammer
    Pretty dovish language I'd say. A graph was displayed showing Median projection for FFR to reach 3% "normal" long term rate in 2020 or later. ...And now some dummy is asking about Trump's comments re:Yellen. Dollar is down a tick. Oil up. Good news for stocks.
  18. Willihammer
    Huh, short-term bond yields are way down. -18% on 3 month, -6.5% on 6 month.
  19. Willihammer
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9vG7xDVX1k
  20. Willihammer
    What I'd do- shift the #5-6 starters to the pen. Hughes, Gibson, Milone, and Duffey. Santana, Santiago, Berrios, and two open spots in the rotation. Shop Pressly, May, Chargois, Kitzler, Light, etc for starting pitching.
  21. Willihammer
    Santiago has only sucked in his brief Twins career. He is a 103 ERA+ starter overall. The same or better than Ervin Santana, Matt Shoemaker, Jake Odorizzi, Jeremy Hellickson, Ian Kennedy, etc.
  22. Willihammer
    The reason for using crude stats like FP and RF/9 in discussing a player like Polanco is because the MLB sample is tiny in comparison to the minor league sample. Unless I'm mistaken, there aren't zone data like RZR for minor league players. If we're throwing those stats out because of opinions about groundskeeping or first base defense, then its just a question of the eye test, no?
  23. Willihammer
    Not sure who you're talking about or what your point is. My point was that a better SS than Polanco was moved off the position. At least as measured by FP and RF/9.
  24. Willihammer
    Player A played 2500 minor league innings at SS, with a .962 FP and 4.34 RF/9. Player B played 2900 minor league innings at SS, with a .932 FP and 4.20 RF/9. Hint- Player A is a our starting 2B. Player B is Polanco.
  25. Willihammer
    The cash dividend income is nice, I wish I had more of it. FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Almost certainly won't raise rates but we'll see how the market digests the minutes. An OPEC+Russia meeting a few days after that.
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