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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    I didn't phrase that quite right. The projections have gotten out of hand. His production against high school competition does- or should, count for SOMETHING when making projections. Its not an exact science by any means, I realize that, but when the divergence between projection and results becomes so great that we have a player underperforming past supplemental round picks being pegged as a 1-1 talent, that should raise a red flag.
  2. Willihammer
    I would challenge anyone to find statistical comparisons to Greene that went in the top 3 picks. I have spot checked a few recent picks and every one outperformed Greene in high school. Eg. Nick Gordon batted 1.483 his senior year. Greene batted 1.250 last year, but is only at .971 so far in 2017. Justin Upton, who was a SS in high school, batted .508 with 12 homers his senior year. Greene is at .306 with 3 homers through a half season. Andrew McCutchen batted .709 with 16 homers. Colby Rasmus batted .484 with 24 homers. Similar story on the mound- Greene has 43 Ks in 28 IP (106 BF, 40.6%, 13.8 K/9). By comparison, Kershaw struckout 139 in 64 IP (19.5 K/9). porcello struckout 112 in 71 IP (14.8 K/9). Odorizzi sruckout 146 in 89.2 innings (14.7 k/9). The highest of these picks was Kershaw at 7. Porcello was 27th and Odorizzi was 32nd. Further, a few of these guys put up better numbers at the plate too, while attending schools 2-3 times as large in attendance. Suggesting they faced tougher competition. I believe too much of Greene's value is being placed in projection. High school results aren't the be all end all but when they stray to far from comps that should be a red flag that perhaps his stock is in bubble territory.
  3. Willihammer
    Interesting board. Dunno too much about some of these prep guys. I do like JB, esp. if he allowed the Twins to do some things later in the draft. I know you're a big draft guy herb. Stop by the main 2017 draft thread!
  4. Willihammer
    Whatdya mean!? Better to go down swinging at garbage than take those pitches!
  5. Willihammer
    Speaking of copyright, did someone get the expressed written consent from the Chitown pale hose for the accounts of the game going on here? RB?
  6. Willihammer
    Fan interference.© Chicago
  7. Willihammer
    Wind blowing in tonight or was Hughes just really good?
  8. Willihammer
    He's Dubnykesque.
  9. Willihammer
    5 IP 1 R from Hughesie, gotta cash out now eh?
  10. Willihammer
    Sorry can't help it. Really I'm wondering why bitcoin didn't drop to $200
  11. Willihammer
    April maybe?
  12. Willihammer
    http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18992656/indians-ace-reliever-andrew-miller-end-tyranny-save Related to some of the discussion. And then the writer reminds readers about the "shutdown" concept introduced by Tom Tango in 2010, defined as an appearance that leads to a 6 percent gain in WPA. He suggests that could replace the save.
  13. Willihammer
    No idea if Rosario will be good or bad overall, but I suspect he'll be at his best against Team Cuba the White Sox.
  14. Willihammer
    Is it possible that finalizing the roster was more Lavine's call than Falvey's? I've never been clear on the division of GM and PBO duties.
  15. Willihammer
    Incidentally Seth, he's still Adalberto Mejia right? Or did he switch to Aderlin?
  16. Willihammer
    Fingers crossed the Duffman excels out of the pen like he did at Rice.
  17. Willihammer
    For starters he puts the ball on the ground a lot, and that appears to be intentional (see Parker's article a few weeks back). There's a decent chance he's optioned. He ended last year on a sour note and has been lousy this spring. Can't hit homers if he's not on the roster.
  18. Willihammer
    Hard under on Kepler getting to 18 HRs, otherwise pass on the rest.
  19. Willihammer
    Kinda wonder if last winter Falvine were counting on Perkins being ready by now.
  20. Willihammer
    He has a good eye and takes good ABs. The power is there. What the heck is his problem with contact? Parker?
  21. Willihammer
    My favorite part of that was the DL bit.
  22. Willihammer
    Well the caveat is "all else being equal." You wouldn't bat Castro in front of Dozier just because he's LH. But you wouldn't swap Park for Mauer against a RH starter just to break up Kepler and Rosario. Even if the opposition brings in a LOOGY later on you only traded one PA versus what, two, three against the starting pitcher?
  23. Willihammer
    From an individual perspective there are costs too. How do you split up 3 lefties? Either bump them up, down, or take one of them out of the order altogether. Two out of three choices will reduce the number of PAs against RH starters. Since most starters are RH and most bullpen arms are RH too. If anything I would assume the overall impact of conventional L-R-L-R staggering is to decrease OPS, not increase it.
  24. Willihammer
    Of course they *might* suffer later in the game but they will score more runs early in games (assuming the starter is opposite-handed) over time, all else being equal. The other thing is, conventional bullpen managment says to save your best relievers for leads, particularly when on the road. Take a tie game or +1 lead into the 7th and you might never have to worry about facing a lefty or, at least, not the best lefty in some cases.
  25. Willihammer
    Yeah. If healthy, I still like him to hit .775-.800. But he's gotta stay healthy!
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