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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    A lot to like here. Excellent analysis and creative idea. A couple of things: 1. Neither Lewis nor Martin projects as a plus defensive SS. Ideally, they are your starting RF (Lewis) and LF (Martin) in 2023. Think about that combo on either side of BB for 3-5 years. 2. Therefore, this could be the year to fire up a longish term deal for a true SS. The best way to pay for that is to trade Josh and use his cash. JD is a declining asset on a team that will struggle to contend. A team like the ‘22 Twins needs more ascending assets. Any declining assets certainly can’t be making $23MM+. Let Miranda man 3B for most of next year and beyond - he’s the future. 3. Twins won’t spend that much on a #1SP in 2022. I’m just not sensing it. Redeploy that cash into a killer pen. Rocco doesn’t let any starter go past 5-6 IPs anyway. I like adding one or two #3 type SPs - but otherwise see what you’ve got in your youngsters than splurge on a #1 or #2 SP if needed in 2023 when the team is more likely to contend. But a killer pen will always keep you more than competitive. 4. I like the call on Kepler. Keep Sano at DH and Kiriloff at 1B. The starting OF next year on either side of BB is a bit dicey, but both Lewis and Martin need to see plenty of time there in the second half of ‘22 anyway. Thanks much, very fun read.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    So we head into 2022 with pretty much the same lineup as we ended the year? Maybe add a different #3 SP and/or a few relievers? That, my friends, is not a recipe for success. Neither Martin and Lewis go project as plus defensive SS. They do, however, project as outstanding corner outfielders. And that’s where they should be starting and playing every day in 2023 with Buxton I’m the middle. Move Donaldson and use the cash to invest in a long term deal with one of the leading FA SS
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Whoa Nelly! Actually, I just wanted to write that. Probably never heard that, huh. Love the creativity behind the plan. Like others have stated I’d be concerned about trading out known contributors for prospects. If we are going to kinda rebuild, I’d go in a different direction. But the heart of your plan is to swap out some salary and add a true #1SP, a #3SP, a top line SS, and a top RP. Those are excellent aspirations. All of those are needs. Thinking along your lines, but not going quite as far and assuming 2022 is bit of a transition, I think we stick with Buxton and use the capital from #1SP in your plan to pay for him. I’m thinking we still trade Josh and use that cash to get a long-term solution at SS. Martin and Lewis do not project as strong enough defensively at SS. Still add the #3SP and build the pen using Kepler. Then add the #1 or #2 SP in 2023 after you see what you’ve got in the up and comers. Here’s what I’m building toward in ‘23. 1B Kiriloff 2B Polanco SS New player added this off season 3B Miranda LF Martin CF Buxton RF Lewis C Rortvedt DH Sano Bench - Arraez, Celestino, Larnach, Gordon, Jeffers SPs - Ober, Ryan, #3 signed this year, one or two of the young guys coming up, #1 or #2 signed next off season based on need. RPs - Build a killer pen. In the 5 inning SP world of modern MLB, it’s all about pen quality and depth. Don’t skimp here. This is a good mix of vets and youngsters, solid up the middle on D, plenty of power with good OBA, built for a multi year window, and, importantly, affordable.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    No!
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Ted, good list but you left off Josh. He’s the number #1 person I’d move. I get that he actually had a pretty good year - particularly in the late 2nd half when the season was already lost. He’s a good, actually very good, baseball player both at the plate and in the field if healthy (which has been fairly unreliable). He’s a veteran presence as well (but has that really translated in the dugout and the clubhouse though?). He very well may be worth his $20+MM. But not to us - not at this time. Josh is a declining asset taking up valuable cash and real estate on a mid market team that has lost lots of money over the past couple of years and has a strong emerging player ready to take his spot. Signing him was a great bet at the time. It made tremendous sense for a team willing to go all in. But that window has passed. Let me repeat that for all of us fans who think 2021 was just some sort of an aberration. That window has passed. The Twins exiting 2021 are not in the same position as the Twins heading into 2019. Josh’s late season play will contribute to getting a better deal for him from a team looking for that key piece. Even more likely if the NL adopts the DH. If all the analytics guys on this site are correct, then there should be takers at full value for Josh’s WAR. Resigning Buxton, signing a SS, and adding pitching (targeting the BP and maybe Big Mike) are simply better uses of that cash at this point in time for the Twins. Give Miranda and Luis the 3B innings and turn over the veteran leadership to Buxton. BTW, I’d move Kepler as well……
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Ted - I think you nailed all the issues. I’ll go first. The 2022 Twins are a going to be about the future - not the present. The team is not likely to be in the position to realistically compete given the projected staff and ownership’s probable (and justifiable) reluctance to go all in again (particularly after possibly losing a boatload of cash over the past two years). Consequently, Josh should be moved for whatever salary relief we can get. I liked the move when we signed him, but the window that made that deal a decent bet has closed. Use the savings to redeploy into singing Buxton, a new SS and pitching (I’d add Kepler to the move list too with the same target use of proceeds) Miranda plays 3B, Polanco 2B, Kiriloff 1B and Sano is DH. Luis plays LF and Larnach is RF. The new SS and Buxton provide strong defensive chops up the middle. Resign Pineda (to a lumber deal between a 2x4 and 2x6). Let the young guys start and build a shutdown pen. That team could play competitive ball, be within realistic payroll expectations, and build for the start of a new window in 2023.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Simple - Sano stays another year. The hope is 0.240, 35 dingers, and 100 RBIs serving primarily as the DH. If he does that he will stick around in 2023 with his $14MM deal. Actually he’s in a great spot to earn that last year by playing well next year. Really a win-win situation for both club and player next year.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Another example tonight of how a mid market team can compete : a league minimum pitcher gets through five in good shape and hands over the reins to a shutdown pen - btw, beating the guy who wants $30MM/year. An entire staff like this will cost a team no more than 1-1.5 Berrios’s. With the continuing trend of longer at bats and shorter pitch counts, more winning teams will have a deep, reliable and relatively cheaper (compared to starters) pen. This will be the Twins strategy over the next two years.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Gant starts with Ober and Ryan (alongside possibly one or both of Dobnak and Jax). Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar, Alcala stay Up to five free agents or trades - at least three of whom should be considered better than those four. Don’t skimp on the pen. With a starting pitching rotation that will no doubt be made up of a number of youngsters, the pen is the key. No laying up on the pen.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Poor fundamentals was a big part of this season’s downfall. They played like poop in the preseason and it continued right on into the regular season. Regardless if everything else goes right re injuries, decent starts, etc., it’s hard to win consistently if the team plays poor fundamentals baseball. IMO, that’s on Rocco and the staff. And, as the team probably will be getting younger going forward, I’m questioning if Rocco is the right manager to lead this team in 2022 and beyond.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    This is exactly the pitching model the Twins should pursue in 2022 and probably 2023. Namely, a five - six inning start of less than four runs by a controllable, league minimum or there abouts starter followed by a shut down pen (Colome not withstanding). It’s a good strategy for a mid market team in the modern game. We probably have at least four starters on the roster or on the system that fit that description. Who knows, one or two could even develop into a solid 6-7 inning #2 or #3 (ideally Ober and Ryan become that). We might even already have 3-4 relievers that could be part of that pen. The pen is the key.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Trade Kepler and Donaldson in the off-season for as much salary relief as we can get and redeploy the $30MM into a lockdown pen. We’d win a lot more games.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    That Twins’ loss today was as typical as the Vikings’ loss on Sunday. Game in hand, a close call that should never have been needed in the first place goes against us, and the oh so predictable loss (and the as predictable bellyaching about the umps/refs) follows. Sad.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Another great example of why Rocco is probably not the right guy to coach this club in the future. With this team likely getting much younger and filled with more prospects transitioning into true big leaguers, fundamentals trump analytics.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Donaldson is a much bigger millstone around our necks with the multi year deal. At least with Simmons it’s one and done at less than half the annual cost as Donaldson.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Couldn’t agree more with this post and mikelink45. As a small/mid market team, we need to look for windows. Ours could open again in ‘23. In this era, having a staff with 3-4 cheap SPs who can deliver 5-6 ips and 3 ers or so (i.e. era 4.50-5.00) augmented by a shutdown pen is a good strategy, particularly for lower budget teams. Save the bucks on starters and commit more $ to the pen. By ‘23 we should be able to identify a strong stable of young, league minimum, controllable SPs out of our many options. Maybe one or two develop into legit #2s. But it might not matter if four of them are legit #3-4s. Then bring in a veteran leader (Berrios?) if necessary/desired. But in all cases, have a shutdown pen. Two asides: 1. Resign Buxton. 2. Is Rocco the right guy to lead/develop these young players? Given the horrendous lack of fundamentals displayed by this team this year, it’s a legit question.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Donaldson will tweak a hammy any time now. He’s due. Slot Miranda right in at 3B. Trader Josh in the off season unless we want a $24MM dh. Take what you can get - salary relief would work.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Can’t walk batters with ducks on the pond.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Of course it should be higher. RISP means better pitches. Arraez’s is 16 points higher (.333 vs. .317). Still zero dingers and 25 ribbies for $23MM? That’s a fail. With two years left now. The signing didn’t work out. Its ok - it happens. I liked it when it was announced. It was a good bold move by the FO and ownership. But the FO should consider it now a sunk cost and move on in the off-season. Donaldson is not a part of the future and should not impede the progress of any player who could be.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    A couple of interesting tidbits from last night’s broadcast: 1. Entering the game the Twins have committed 85 errors - most in the majors and responsible for giving up the third most unearned runs. Simmons, our best fielder, is having his worst defender year and Sano, despite being benched at 1B for Kiriloff for much of the year. has committed more errors than our SSs combined. 2. Sano leads the team in bases loaded at bats with 18. He has two hits (a single and a grand slam) and NINE k’s. 3. With RISP, Donaldson is hitting .260 with 0 homers and 25 RBIs. Just a reminder - Donaldson, Sano and Sano will make over $44MM this season.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    That’s actually a really good point. The Twins have committed the most errors this season and have given up the third most unearned runs. (Couple that with our mid 5s era and it’s easy to see why we stunk up the joint this year) Its a completely legitimate question to ask if Rocco is the right guy to drive the ongoing development of a team consisting mostly if young players.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    I like our pipeline - solid but probably not full of projectable all stars. I see three position player starters on this list hopefully by 2023: Lewis (ss), Martin (rf) and Miranda (3b). Coupled with Kiriloff (1B) and Larnach (lf) that could be five starters in the field. Rooker, Gordon, and Celestino are possible bench players. Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt are behind the plate. Sign Buxton, keep Arraez and Polanco and there are 14 solid position players with only two making more than essentially league minimum. There are at least a dozen legitimate potential SPs (including Ober and Jax) on the list - we should be able to get at least four of them to give us 5-6 innings of 3 runs or less 75% of the time (i.e. solid #3-4s). A couple more will probably end up in the pen. We’d clearly have the cash to add at least a solid #2 SP type, a shut down pen, and maybe a FA position player in case of injury or non development. That team could win. The Twins FO are positioning us to pursue the classic mid market strategy to make a run. I’m a fan of our future (assuming we resign Buxton).
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Jax and Ober may not be the second comings, but I’ll take any league minimum starter who can go 5-6 innings and give up 3 or less earned runs three out of every four starts. If we had four guys like that, we’d be in great shape.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    I disagree. Among those 12 names there is potential for several (4-5 at least) to be #2-4s in time. In this day and age a solid #3 gives you 5-6 innings and 3 earned runs. A lot of names on that group can give us that. Give them time to gestate next year. I hope a handful of them though get at least 5–10 starts in the bigs next year.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Nope, I just realize that the Twins are mid market team at best that has probably lost $100MM in cash over the past two seasons. We just can’t expect to sign every FA that you think is the flavour of the day. The key is to build a strong team with a lot of league minimum contract controlled players then add the key FAs that might make a difference. Hopefully more Cruz than Donaldson. Who don’t you like in this lineup? Donaldson (one leg $20+MM) over Miranda? Cave over Martin? Another Simmons at $10MM over Polanco and Arraez playing every day? We have 13 or more potential SP prospects - should we get them some innings next year or sign a few more retread FAs? Are you happy with the pen? Do you disagree that a shut down pen is critical in the modern game of 3-2 counts and 5 inning 90+ pitch starters?
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