Nashvilletwin

Well said MGX. I agree, pick a lane. Sadly, your second option just doesn’t appear to truly be on the table given the lack of financial resources seemingly available. I also agree 100% that the in-between option is what will be selected entering the season. The FO and ownership will delude themselves into taking the chance that this lineup can compete. The toggle back to your first alternative then happens sometime around the all-star break when trades start to be made and prospects (Jenkins, ERod, Culpepper, Gonzalez, etc.) start to get called up. The risk, of course, is what happens to the trade values of Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers - do they go up or down as the season progresses? I’d argue that Ryan and Buxton are at peak risk-adjusted value now. Lopez’s value may go up as he reproves his durability and effectiveness through the first two months or so. Jeffers is the ideal trade deadline type candidate - keep him until then (and we might have a little more depth at catcher by then anyway).

Among the position players, we have exactly one above average major leaguer (Buxton, when healthy) and one average major leaguer (Jeffers). The rest are below average, albeit, with some playing time, a few might be able to become average big leaguers. If Buxton were to miss any extended time (which given history seems more than likely), our position player lineup is, on paper, as unexciting as it is non-competitive. On the mound, we have two above average starters (solid #1 or #2s), two about average (i.e. decent #4 or #5s) and one project. Coming out of the bullpen, we have no clear studs, no clearly defined roles, limited depth, and even more limited experience. Do not expect Ryan and Lopez to win many games they leave leading by a run or two after five or six solid innings. So is this the lineup for which you waste the trade values of Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and even Jeffers - none of whom will be Twins in ‘28 after the strike shortened ‘27 campaign? With the proven managerial maestro Shelton at the helm? Sure, lightning might strike and this team might look competitive through mid year. Given the lack of money to bolster the lineup as the season progresses, that delusion would likely be the worst case scenario for the future of the Twins. The more likely scenario is that every player outside of the few tradable assets enters the season knowing they are fighting for their big league careers and not all (or even many) will make it. Consequently, this roster, particularly the position players and starting pitching, should look incredibly different by August 1st. And that just may be the best outcome for the team and franchise long-term.

True, but most of those early ABs were when he was still screwing around with his swing (at the behest of the Twins’ coaching staff). He became much more productive and consistent when he went back to the swing/strategy at the plate that made him a top draft pick. He’s earned his starting role - especially on this club, lol.

Gonzalez in LF after the trade deadline (along with ERod in RF and Jenkins in CF). Martin and Rhoden are OFs #4 and #5 for the last 60 games or so. Wallner gets his opportunity to be the primary DH. Buxton oks a trade to get a chance for a ring and the Twins invest valuable MLB innings in their OF of the future. The fans get something different to watch over the last two months of ‘26 and something to look forward to whenever baseball is played in ‘27. Win-win-win.

Each side - players and owners - will have their own significant internal divisions to deal with initially. On the players side, the “stars” have historically won the argument against the cap given their political power within the players association. However, given the meteoric rise of salaries at the top end clearly at the expense of those players at the bottom and middle - for whom a floor would certainly be beneficial - it may be difficult for the players to present a United front. On the owners side, the big market owners have carried the day as well in the past. But the growth rates in franchise values between the top few and the rest has grown significantly wider. Most owners, like the Pohlads, have seen what the cap and floor model in the NFL has done for the franchise values of smaller market owners (as well as the competitive balance of the league) and will rightly push hard for a cap giving a floor in return. You may see some strange bedfellows emerge among the participants in these negotiations with the rank and file players joining the smaller market owners to push for a cap as long as the floor is high enough. Grab your popcorn and plenty of it. It’s going to be a long movie. One reason will be that the smaller owners will gladly trade lost near term revenues for an immediate spike in their franchise values. Which is precisely why the Pohlads are waiting to sell.

Cody, I respect your opinion, but just disagree with it. But differing opinions is what makes the world go ‘round, thankfully. Interestingly, I actually think step 1 is a given for this FO. And step 2 (whether it’s Goldschmidt or someone else) fits right into the FO’s usual playbook. So, some combo of your plan is probably exactly what will happen. At least out of the gate. Come July when it’s clear the team just cannot compete, then the second great purge will occur with Ryan, Lopez, Buck and Jeffers gone. This FO is going to roll the dice on the health and performance of their three/four biggest assets to give the fans some early season hope and drive ticket sales. If the team plays well, then they stick with the plan. If not, they jettison the assets later. The cost of this strategy is the risk regarding the return those assets might bring later rather than earlier. This FO will be willing to take that risk. So, although I disagree with the your plan Cody, I do think some subset of what you propose starting with #1 is exactly what the FO will do. Happy Thanksgiving to all TDers!

As long as the “major league” players returned could be more than reasonably likely to be part of the post lockout core; otherwise, the next best thing are high upside nearly ready prospects.

Thanks Nick for laying things out so clearly. This article demonstrates quite definitively why it makes absolutely no sense to run it back this year with Lopez and Ryan. There just aren’t enough good players and there isn’t any money or trade capital (other than Buxton) to bring in new ones. There is zero reason to waste the highest value Ryan and Lopez will ever have while they run out the clock on their time with the Twins. The TDers hoping to compete in ‘26 with this roster are dreaming. There is exactly one above average major leaguer on this roster when healthy (Buxton). And exactly one average major leaguer at best (Jeffers - who only has one year left with the club). The best of the rest (Lewis, Wallner, Keaschall, Martin, Lee) are (generously) at best currently fringe major leaguers, albeit with possibly some upside potential. Just go all in on the rebuild. That’s really the only option if this team has any chance to compete post the lock-out when Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers and likely Buxton are all gone anyway.

It’s really hard to sell a declining asset/business. You always want to sell when the asset/business is on the upswing - because then you can sell the hope/upside. The story is way easier and plausible to sell. Once the asset/business starts to decline in value/performance, the story in the eyes of potential buyers that needs to be disproved changes to “how low can it go?”. That’s very difficult to do - who wants to catch a falling knife? So, if there is a reasonable, implementable plan to turn the business around, then it’s a reasonable risk to take it to rebuild value. This is where the Twins/Pohlads are now. So what’s the plan? Threefold: 1. Improve financial performance. Reduce debt (by bringing in the minority investors) and improve operating profits (mostly by reducing costs). But this is not nearly enough….. 2. Capitalize on improving industry conditions. At the moment, the team is facing two strong industry headwinds - a looming lockout and tv revenue chaos. In addition, the smaller market teams face the notable competitive disadvantages of a non-salary cap league. It’s a reasonable bet that these issues will be resolved quite significantly in the Twins favor sometime in ‘27. But the business itself still needs a story of how it can grow….. 3. Build a story of how the team can compete in the future. This needs to be based on a plan that can reasonably expected to be achievable. The Twins do not have that yet - not even close. They have not committed to either a full rebuild ala the Astros or going more all in with the current SP core. The current plan seems to be mired in the “condemned to sub mediocrity” middle, Moreover, there should be no expectation that any potential buyer would have confidence in the current management of this business: the Nephew, Falvey and Shelton have not proven that they can build that compelling story of team upside. Until they pick a lane and achieve results, even post the new CBA it will be hard to get top dollar, let alone sell. With respect to #3, the story of the complete rebuild is much easier to sell even if results on the field haven’t translated yet. But it’s still risky. Trying to win with the current core is very difficult because there is no cash available to augment that core (proven to be non-competitive) via free agency. So, do you hope that somehow the team can perform this year with the same strategy but with even less financial resources than the past failing teams have had? Or do you trade your top assets to build a more compelling story for the post lockout world? That’s basically the choice Twins are facing. Personally, to maximize the potential sale price, I’d select the later. Go all in on the rebuild - you can market the young players to the fans and keep costs low in the meantime, But the apparently “safer” choice appears to be the former and that is the path I predict the Twins will follow.

DeBarge replaces Lee on the post-lockout ‘28 projected position player roster as utility IF. With his speed, better glove, and peskiness at the plate, he’s a likely better late inning option. He might even battle Houston for the starting SS spot. (Note: assuming we win the draft, Chowolsky is at 3B, Culpepper is at 2B, and Keaschall is at 1B; if we don’t draft Chowolsky, Lewis could be at 3B - he’ll get 2026 to make his case).

“after the shocking decision to trade Carlos Correa”? Don’t you mean “after the Twins’ smartest trade decision in years”?

They just got their backup catcher (who will be btw the starting catcher by the trade deadline after Jeffers gets moved) who needs saving for $1.8MM last week.

The peanut vendor in section 122 has a better chance of being signed by the Twins than these three……

Dream 2027 Post Lockout Position Player Lineup(!): Tait - C Keaschall - 1B Culpepper - 2B Chowolsky - 3B Houston - SS ERod - RF Jenkins - CF Gonzalez - LF Wallner - DH Rhoden, Lee, Martin, Jackson - Bench.

Except Pintar hasn’t spent a couple of years being screwed up by his coaches trying to change his launch angle.

Not so sure of the relevance of these results. In the same league this year, Sano in 15 games had 7 dingers, hit over .350 and an OPS over 1.200. Lol

Right now there are seven contenders for the post Buxton ‘28 core in the OF and DH: 1. Jenkins 2. ERod 3. Gonzalez 4. Rhoden 5. Mendez 6. Wallner 7. Martin Ideally, five of those work out. But more will certainly be added and some will drop off the list for injury or performance issues. Let the battle begin. But if Buxton gets traded, I’d love to see a starting OF in the second half of Jenkins, ERod and Gonzalez with Wallner as primary DH and Martin and Rhoden in utility type roles. Add Lewis (3B), Lee (SS), Keaschall (2B), Clemens/Julien (1B), Jackson plus 1 (C) (Jeffers will be traded by the deadline). Maybe Culpepper is called up to play SS and Lee goes to (2B) and Keaschall to 1B and one of Julien or Clemens is DFA’d. I’d tune in to watch that 13 position player lineup every game.

Still dreaming of a post deadline OF of Jenkins, ERod and Gonzalez. Let them play the last two months of ‘26 and as many games that are actually played in ‘27. Then we will have our core young outfield with much needed experience under their belts heading into ‘28. And the Twins will have a great story to sell as well to keep fan interest high this year and next when things are rough in the wins column.

Actually $1.8 mil for a starting C post the trade deadline at the latest. Jeffers will certainly be traded at the deadline if not sooner.

Haha. That’s right! My bad! Sorry Tim

Didn’t we win a World Series with a catcher with the nickname Buck Eighty……?

Predictions from the cheap seats: 5. Jeffers - traded between the all-star break and the deadline. 4. Keaschall - no chance he’s traded. He gets every chance to be part of the new core in ‘28. 3. Buxton - if he wants to win, he’s gone He might hang around to see if the team is competitive. Alas, his value will probably never be higher than right now. He okays a trade before the deadline at the latest. 2. Lopez - might be kept for a while to prove he’s okay, help tutor the youngsters (expensive coach), and be a hedge if the team actually is contending. He’s traded by the deadline at the very latest, but possibly very soon if the offer is compelling. 1. Ryan - he’s gone by Christmas.

The investors are in knowing that a possibly long lockout is in the way. They invested fully expecting a drawn out fight for a salary cap and that a cap of some sort will be adopted.

Top three reasons to move Ryan vs. Lopez: 1. Ryan brings back the better return and is at peak value right now. 2. Lopez’s injury laden ‘25 campaign plus his higher salary will hurt his near term return. 3. Lopez would probably be a better mentor to the younger pitchers who will likely comprise the staff. There is no reason not to trade both as neither will re-sign to be part of the post lockout core in ‘28. However, there is a scenario under which Lopez’s value actually increases once his injury concerns are put to bed; therefore, Ryan should go soon, but Lopez’s trade might wait all the way up to the deadline. This strategy maximises the player with the higher return and provides a bit of a hedge on the team’s first half performance (i.e., if for some unknown reason we are competitive, we could keep Lopez and try to make a run).

All of those players you cited will get their chance. Just not yet for some of them. Lewis and Lee for sure in ‘26. Keaschall certainly as well this season. Might see some of the others later in the year. Personally, if the draft goes really well, I actually like Keaschall as the 1B of the future starting in late ‘27 or ‘28. By then, Culpepper is likely at 3B if Houston can hit well enough to justify his defense at SS. Chowolsky (i.e. the draft went really well) is at 2B. There is your ideal 2028 infield and future infield core (with Tait at C). Note no Julien, no Lewis, no Lee. But ideally each of those three players do well enough in ‘26 to get something in return or one of them pans out and is part of the core (but that is unlikely, right?).