Nashvilletwin

Oh, also btw for what it’s worth, I read a lot of comments on the TD about how valuable JD is and a lot of comments about how he won’t have any trade demand. They seem incongruent. Could JD truly be worth so much only to the Twins and no other team? I don’t think so. Not in 2022. JD is a really, really good baseball player who will be more valuable to a team looking for that FA pickup to get over the hump (especially with the universal DH) than he will be to the Twins at his price and position over the next two years. I think he’s good and can be moved - and for more value ($ adjusted) than LA.

Are these Twins realistically positioned to compete in 2022 for a WS as built? We’d all like to think so, but c’mon be truthful. If not, are these Twins only a player or two away from being in that position? Again, anything is possible, but, with how we appear to be rebuilding our staff, be realistic. If not, should we trade declining assets or improving assets as we look to build a team to get into that position in 2023 and beyond? Also, as a mid market team, should we trade high priced declining assets or low priced improving assets - especially if the former at this point in time should have stronger trade demand? The realistic, rational answers are no, no, declining and high priced. So the person who should be traded is JD and we keep LA unless we know his knees make him a declining asset (which I do not believe is true) in which case you trade them both. JD was brought in (btw in a smart, bold move IMHO), to be the key FA cog in getting us playoff victories. That’s what midmarket teams with good owners (like our beloved Twins) do when the FO feels a solid window exists. And the opposite is true as well - they shed the expensive declining assets who will not be around when the next window is open in order to save the cash for a new cog FA and provide opportunity to up and coming players whom they feel may be part of that new window. JD should be moved - preferably during the off-season (but certainly before the trade deadline) after the universal DH is approved and off of his strong 2021 second half and before his inevitable drop off becomes more apparent. LA and Miranda platoon at 3rd base - both of them can still be considered to be likely important pieces of a new window opening as early as 2023, while JD cannot. Btw, I think the data indicate that defensively there really isn’t much difference between LA and JD at this point (i.e., that JD is a top defensive 3B is more of a myth now), but I could be wrong about that. And depending on how Larnach, Lewis, Martin, Celestine, and Wallner develop, Max may be next if he doesn’t up his game.

Dobnak perhaps might be a sleeper, but I’m already counting on the other two to be important contributors in 2022.

Love this series. Thank you. I will take the bait on Wallner and CES. Along with Severino, Palacios and possibly Cavaco, plus our top 10, I’d say that gives us 15 (18 if Celestino, Larnach and Rortvedt don’t qualify for the top 10 list) legit looking prospects at this point in time. I’m sure a few more will develop and a few will fall by the wayside. Not a bad list, but I agree with an above poster that the pitching list seems a bit more robust.

In ‘22, some combination of Kepler, Gordon and Celestino are our backup CFers, with Kepler possibly moved before the deadline. In ‘23 and hopefully for several additional years - provided our prospects develop and depending what we do at SS - Martin, Lewis and Celestino are the primary backups for Buxton. If those three develop nicely, we have no issues re a satisfactory Buxton replacement.

I don’t know how that cow thing got in there. Apologies.

All the options are in play. It’s probably a pretty fluid situation with lots of factors, including: universal DH, team pre-deadline competitiveness, other DH options (think JD, Rooker, and maybe some MK), prospect development (Sabato in particular), other position player trade developments (JD and MK) trade demand, payroll considerations, and, of course, Sano’s performance. Having said that, IMO I think it is highly unlikely any trade gets done in the off-season. In 2022, Sano is going to get his chance and likely starts out as our primary DH while playing some backup 1B. The goal is to hit 0.250, 35 dingers, 0.850+ OPS, and be a good team presence. If he exceeds that, Miguel either has his option picked up and is part of the new window or he earns a sweet new contract most likely somewhere else. If he underperforms, he will be on his way and it’s unclear what he is able to garner as an almost purely DH FA. The good news is that Miguel has a lot to play for this year! There is so much in his hands and all indications are that he is going to get his chance. I’m cheering hard for him.

Unless the Twins are making a serious run at it at the trade deadline, I don’t think the FO will trade anyone who might be an important cog in a new multi year window they think will open in 2023. That includes Arraez IMHO. If Miranda and the younger outfield assets (Martin, Larnach, Celestino and, yes, Lewis (although we all hope he can be a SS)) are developing nicely, then JD and MK will be the most likely players to be moved before the deadline.

Great article - fun topic. My one adds could be batting eighth and playing catcher Robert Dinero playing Bruce Pearson or joining the pitching staff Michael Moriarty as Henry Wiggen - both in Bang the Drum Slowly. That is an awesome baseball movie. Makes me cry every time.

RpR, I agree with that. Happy New Year.

Yeah, like Kepler and Arraez or Gordon or Rooker are going to be the answer in the corner OF positions. Or should we use our precious trade or FA capital on the corner OF when there are so many needs on the mound - both SPs and RPs - let alone at SS? LOL. We have two legit top OF prospects in Martin and Lewis who should debut late in ‘22. The goal should be to develop them into legit major leaguers. Larnach and Celestino should be solid 4th OFs at worst.

With Kiriloff at 1B, our projected starting OF in 2023 is either: Martin LF, Buxton CF, Lewis RF with Larnach and/or Celistino in the 4th/5th OF slot, and we acquire in some way a starting SS; or, Martin LF, Buxton CF, Larnach RF with Celistino as the 4th OF. Lewis is the starting SS (as we all hope but has yet to be proven). Either way we have a young OF with all the players under long term control and all but Buxton making essentially league minimum. We have a great mix of power, OBA, lefty/righty, speed, arm strength and CF redundancy (in spades with Martin, Lewis and Celistino). I truly think this is the vision of the FO. Martin stays and Kepler gets moved by the deadline depending on progress by the young guys.

Rookie of the year 2023.

Out of the gate in ‘22, Kepler, Larnach, Fisher, Celistino, Rooker, Arraez, yadda yadda, yadda, are the most likely to see time in the corner OF spots. Ultimately, I think you are missing the two most likely to bracket Buxton - Martin and Lewis (and I’m not talking about that famous comedy duo). Although we all hope Royce can play SS, neither likely projects as a plus fielder at that position. With their speed and arms, both, however, probably do as corner outfielders (as well as backup CFs for Buxton when needed) and should have the desired combination of power and OBA at the plate as well. It could be in ‘23 (and hopefully for an additional several years after that) we see a starting outfield of Martin, Buxton, and Lewis with some combo of Larnach, Wallner and Celestino in the important platoon roles. That could be one great outfield.

With a FO seemingly content to see how the starter prospects develop this year and apparently focused on building a young, cost controlled position player core which an eye on a multiple year “open window” starting in 2023, I would think the top two possible players to be moved either in the offseason or before the deadline are Donaldson and Kepler. If we could, I’d move JD in the off-season and utilize the cash to sign Story. Miranda and Arraez man 3rd as Miranda develops into the ‘23 everyday starter. Kepler gets moved at the deadline based on how Lewis, Martin and Larnach are developing (ideally those three comprise your OF alongside Buxton starting in ‘23). This leaves Buxton, Story, Sano (DH) and Polanco (2B) as essentially our only relatively high priced players - freeing up capital to spend if desired next offseason.

Nick, you are spot on: the Twins are not only going to see what they have this year among their burgeoning staff options, but also are not necessarily writing off the year. If our pen is strong, there is no reason we can’t compete. A couple of points: 1. Of the 13 possibilities (I include Jax), there is a high likelihood that most, if not all of them, barring injury or unexpected poor development/performance, get a shot in the majors this year. 2. The MO of this FO and coaching staff is all about 4-6 inning, two + times thru the order starters anyway. None of them need to be a shutdown, innings eater next year (or even further into the future for that matter, but it would be nice if one or two became that eventually). 3. The goal should be that by ‘23 we see hopefully at least 3-4 of them develop into legitimate #2-4 starters. The beauty of that is they would all be on LEAGUE MINIMUM! Think about that for a second. We take 13 legitimate prospects and turn them into 4 legitimate starters under team control for multiple years at a total sum of under $10MM/year. That is an incredibly strong place to be as a mid market team. 4. The FO then uses the cash saved to build a killer pen and, if desired, add a more true #1 and/or a key position player or two to fill a hole. Building a killer pen is cheaper, and way less risky, than signing multiple FA starters on longer term deals. I’ve written this before on the TD and I’ll write it again: I hope the Twins win as many games as possible in ‘22, but this organization (with the resigning of Buxton, the core young positional talent both up and on the way, this cadre of emerging starters/pitchers, and the low cost of the core coupled with an owner willing to spend when the window is open) has a unique chance next year to position the team for several successful, fun, exciting years. I’m more than willing to be patient in ‘22 with that ultimate goal in mind if need be.

Agree with my fellow TDers that Polanco at SS is not an option - almost as stupid as moving Sano to RF. If Story can truly be signed for $125MM over 5 years that is a no brainer. We have the cash, particularly if we move Josh to help pay for it. Do we not think that an infield of Miranda, Story, Polanco, and Kiriloff is not a stellar proposition for the next five years? Throw in Arraez and Gordon as utility. Sano (primary DH) can sub at 1B and Martin and Lewis (hopefully our two primary future corner outfielders along with Larnach) can sub at both SS and CF if needed. With Jeffers and Rortvedt (and Garver for some time) behind the dish, this infield lineup would be our overall strongest in terms of both defense and offense in a very long time. This entire lineup, including the OF, would cost less than $70MM - leaving $60-70MM left for the staff. So if Story can be had for $125MM/5, then trade Josh to get it done and start using the remaining $ on pitching.

Thanks Ted. With Kepler, Garver and Arraez you’ve identified three of our most likely trade options. I think you missed the most likely though. When thinking of trades, yes perceived “value” is critical because it tends to drive demand. The players you mention all could have substantive “value”, albeit all in the eyes of individual beholders, to one or more teams. However, when deciding to seek to trade any given player, other criteria come into play (which you pretty much touch on in your comments), I would argue these specifically include the following: 1. Team situation (i.e. is the team positioned to make a run this year or is it in some form of repositioning or “rebuilding”). 2. Relative player cost (i.e. how much $ could be freed up and deployed elsewhere to generate as much or more contribution - this is obviously more important to small and mid market teams like the Twins) 3. Player replacement (i.e. who would replace the player put on the block). 4. Ascending or descending talent (i.e. is the player likely to improve production going forward or is the production expected to decline and how quickly - even if such future production is solid). So adding these criteria to perceived “value” it appears to me that the one candidate that best meets all of them is Josh Donaldson: - His second half was strong so he has perceived value to the market, notwithstanding his contract (especially with universal dh). - The Twins are not one or two players away from contending, but appear to be building to their next window in ‘23 and beyond (yesterday’s signing of Dylan Bundy is a clear acknowledgment that the FO realizes this - that was not the move of a team going “all in”). - JD’s salary (and based on his production I think we could move a lot of it) could be way better deployed. - Miranda is, or is just about, ready and needs to be best developed to be a big contributor with the new window approaching. - Josh is a descending talent in all likelihood, and given his injury history, it could be a relatively quick descent. Btw, plenty of the above could be said about Max as well. However, I could see us hanging on a bit longer to Max to get a better picture of Larnach, Martin and Lewis. Thus, if I were to rank the players on the Twins must likely to be moved by next year’s trade deadline it would be Josh followed by Max.

That actually may not be too different than our 2023 lineup. Agree with the cjm that Sabato could be in the DH spot by 2025. Rortvedt will hopefully be around and doing up to 1/2 the catching. He’s very good and our catching should be set for years behind Jeffers and Rortvedt. My big question mark is SS. Nothing would make me happier than to see Lewis there. But I think the jury is still out as to his defensive skill base. I could see us looking for a different solution and then Lewis mans RF. A four man outfield of Martin, Buxton, Lewis and Larnach (with Larnach providing a left handed DH option as well) could be a winning combo for years. Another great attribute of this lineup is the cost. Between ‘23 and ‘25, only Buxton, Polanco and Sano cost very much (excluding extensions and what we do at SS). That entire lineup, even with bench players Rortvedt, Arraez, and some combo of Gordon, Celestino, Rooker, etc. would probably run less than $50MM per annum. That leaves plenty to build the pitching staff, particularly with one top end FA or trade starter and, of course, a shut down pen. I'm not fretting about ‘22. In fact I will be judging the year on how our young talent develops. But I’m sure getting excited about the window that will start to open in ‘23.

Sure, we like the player, but it is not happening unless an extension is included or we send a player back to the A’s who is absolutely not part of our ‘23 and beyond plan and, ideally, dumps salary. So, if we sent JD to the A’s with a bunch of his salary, then maybe. (Of course, the A’s will not want him). Otherwise, this FO is not trading for a one year rental this off season. Moves like this happen when the team is a player or two away and the window is open. That is not now.

Agree with JR. The jury is still out on Lewis (or Martin) as an everyday MLB shortstop. If BB is not resigned (heaven forbid) Lewis is likely our CF of the future. If BB is resigned, Lewis, Martin and Larnach are our corner outfielders of the future with Lewis able to play CF when BB is on IR. By 2023, this should be a strong cadre of four outfielders with an attractive mix of speed, power, and OBA. Also, all four would be under long term control and thee would essentially be at league minimum. So let’s go get a 5 yr plus solution at SS out of the current FA crop. If not, Taylor is a preferred target.

The ultimate strategy won’t be as dire or radical as some of us are describing on this thread, but it will be significantly in that direction. A couple of observations: 1. We are a small to mid market team. The good news is we are blessed with owners who will pay at the upper end of the range of those teams, especially if a window seems open. 2. In conjunction with trends in the modern MLB, our coaching staff does not support long starter outings. Instead, they prefer a two time through the order approach. 3. We do not have the capital or risk appetite to go “all in” on high end FA SPs - certainly not where we are in our current fairly closed window and given #1 and #2 above. 4. We actually have a decent cadre of young starter talent ready to test their mettle at the Show level. 5. The FO and coaching staff subscribe to the Bomba strategy of looking to score lots of runs and there are no signs they are looking to abandon that. So, what’s the right, sensible strategy then? You build a starting staff full of low cost, controllable assets that seek to pitch five IPs per start. The goal is to have each of these starters have an ERA of between 4 and 5. So our starters work half the game or so giving up 2-3 earned runs per start. You then augment your staff with a lights out bullpen that can hold your opponent to no more than a run or two per game. Such a bullpen can be used much more situationally and be built at a much less cost than investing in high end starters. The overall cost savings then can be applied to building your starting eight for hitting and defense. The goal is to win a lot of games by scoring more than 4 runs. When the window is clearly open, you then can splurge on a true #1 or #2 if need be - who knows, there is a decent chance one or two of our youngsters will develop into that role anyway and it won’t cost $25MM/year. Not only is this the approach the I think the Twins will take, but I also think it’s the right one.

Yes, the jury is still out on Lewis (or Martin) as an everyday SS. It’s much more likely that they project as plus corner outfielders with Buxton in center. If Buxton leaves (heaven forbid) or gets injured, then, of course, Lewis can slot in at CF. Better to find a 5 year solution (as sagely posted above) as a true SS now. If we have to move our declining asset at 3B or give up our pipe dreams of a #1 SP to do it, so be it. At the moment I’d take a long term deal plus SS and Miranda at 3B as we look to build a new window than Josh, an expensive temp at SS and the hope (of hype) of Lewis or Martin as a plus SS in ‘23 and beyond. Really, not even close.

Respectfully, you gamble on a player like this when you think it will get you over the hump. Sorry to break it to all of us: our beloved Twins are not in that position for ‘22. It is much more likely if we have a successful campaign next year and feel the window is opening that we splurge on a top end starter. Who knows - maybe even Berrios comes back. This off-season we are much more likely to sign one or two #3 types (Big Mike, Rodriguez, etc.) on a one (with an option) or two year deal. We then see what our youngsters have next year. We might not even need to splurge in ‘23 but instead just build a lights out pen (probably get three or four really strong relievers for one #2 equivalent starters).

I appreciate the sentiments to keep Josh. However, they seem to be predicated upon the notion that the Twins are in a position to contend in 2022. That just doesn’t seem realistic to me - even assuming the FO is willing to stay around the $130MM payroll level. There are just too many holes to fill. Besides, there is a lot of young talent in the field and on the bump that need innings to develop. It could be best to just reinvest a bit for a year to get the benefit of a longer open window starting in 2023. A team in that situation needs to be long ascending assets. Josh, bless his heart, is a declining asset - who costs $50+MM to boot. So assuming we are rebuilding to some degree with an eye on really being able to contend in two years, would you rather have an aging out Josh at $51MM or utilize some or much of that cash to get a true SS in here (in a great year to find a FA) on a longer term deal and let Miranda grow into the role with Arraez? BTW, I’m clearly in the camp that neither Martin nor Lewis projects as our starting SS. They should be our starting LF and RF bracketing Buxton in 2023. So let’s get the SS now that would be the lynchpin up the middle for what should be our emerging window. Move Josh. If he’s as good as a lot of us TDers think he is, we might get more than we think for him (especially with the universal DH coming down the pike).