Nashvilletwin

Agreed (maybe Lewis is at 3B and Lee is 2B). Arraez and Julien are the 5th and 6th infielders. Four of the six play in the field, one dh’s, and one sits every day. In the OF, throw in Buxton, Gordon, and three of the Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, and Rodriguez sweepstakes. Jeffers and Vasquez at catcher. Those could be our primary thirteen position players in ‘24. The two losers of the OF sweepstakes plus Celestino, Urbina, and Sabato are core AAA backups. Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Garlick, and Gallo are gone no later than the trade deadline - hopefully for pitching. That my friends presents a solid window for several years if we can get the pitching right.

Agree 100%. Love to see 9/$240 with the first tree at 3/$105, the next three at 3/$75 and the last three at 3/$60. Opt outs after years 2 and 5 (giving Correa 2/$70 and a chance to better the remaining 7/$170 at age 30 or 5/$165 and a chance to better the remaining 4/$75 at age 33). No trade clause thru year three.

Did the Dodgers’ manager yank him in the 5th after getting through the order for the 2nd time? Yeah, he wouldn’t be a fit for the Twins - he’d only last one start. Please note the italics font indicating sarcasm,

Agree, the Correa signing does have an impact - not only on the slots directly available, but also on the direction the team takes at the deadline. With Correa, if the Twins are in any way even remotely (i.e. delusionally) in the hunt for a playoff spot, this FO will be much less likely to pull the trigger on trading players like Polanco, Gallo and Farmer. Those three are the keys for Julien, Lee, and Martin (and Wallner for that matter) getting the ABs and innings they need to be ready for ‘24. In fact, they might even trade some of those young players to go all in on their Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Correa strategy for ‘23. Who knows - maybe it will be the right call. Without Correa, the FO might be more likely to grasp reality and develop/assess the young talent with meaningful major league experience.

Kiriloff is 1B in ‘24 only if Arraez is traded and Sabato doesn’t beat Kiriloff out. Otherwise, the ‘24 infield are these five players: Lee, Lewis, Julien, Miranda and Arraez (5) - it will be 6 total if Correa signs. ’24 outfield will be these six players: Buxton, Gordon, and four of Larnach, Kiriloff, Rodriguez, Wallner, Martin and Celestino. Only five total if Correa signs. With Jeffers and Vazquez, that makes 13 position players.

Hilarious. So true. Minnesotans are #1 in PA.

Gone by ‘24

Rodriguez is also a lefty. Buxton, Martin, Celestino and Urbina are the four right-handed bats of the nine. So without trades or FAs, it would be up to Martin, Celestino or Urbina to be a “decent-hitting RH bat”. My money is on Martin, but Celestino could very well be that player.

Thanks for the article. It feels like Celestino has been a bit of the forgotten man this off-season. Having said that, where does Celestino currently rank among our potential outfielders for ‘24? (IMHO, ‘24 and beyond are for what we should be building and any success in ‘23, which we all hope is a lot, would be delicious, unexpected gravy). For argument’s sake let’s just assume Kepler and Gallo are gone. Here’s one ranked pecking order for our ‘24 outfield: 1. Buxton. 2. Gordon (that’s right - he’s our #2 OFer and deserves it). 3. Larnach. 4. Kiriloff (sorry, Arraez and Miranda are manning 1B in ‘24). 5. Wallner. 6. Martin. 7. Rodriguez. 8. Celestino. 9. Urbina. So, assuming six of those players break camp with the team in ‘24 and no other FAs or trades, Celestino is right in there with a chance - injuries and failure to scale at the majors level are very possible, if not likely. So the key for Celestino, just like really all the players not named Buxton on that list, is to get the ABs and innings at the appropriate level to maximise development. Btw, with health and continued development, that list looks pretty darn good with a solid mix of power, speed, AVE/OBP, L/R batters, defense and low cost/controllability. If only Buxton could reliably stay on the field and be the true anchor of this group…..

The core of the Twin’s strategy in ‘23 certainly includes fewer injuries, rebound campaigns and/or ongoing improvement throughout most of the roster. However, it appears that for this FO and many Twins fans much of their hopes rest on three key planks: namely, Buxton’s health (how many games he plays), the pitching triumvirate of Gray, Mahle, and Maeda (how many innings they pitch), and the renaissance of Gallo (how he slashes). It’s a fair supposition given that without more than a modicum of success from at least two, if not all, of those three, this Twins team will likely struggle to compete for a pennant, let alone a Central Division title. Although fair, is the supposition actually likely? For each of these three planks, what would a) define success (i.e. what could realistically be considered a very positive result and/or what makes the FO look smart) and b) what should we actually expect (i.e. the over/under)? Here’s one take: Buxton Games Played Success: 100 in CF, 30 as DH (second most ever) Over/Under: 70 in CF, 20 as DH (essentially average of ‘16, ‘19, and ‘22) Gray, Mahle and Maeda Innings Pitched Success: 390 (essentially 140 from both Gray and Mahle and 110 from Maeda) Over/Under: 330 (115 from both Gray and Mahle and 100 from Maeda) Gallo Production Success: .230/.350/.450 - OPS: .800 (essentially his 2021 season) Over/Under: .200/.290/.420 - OPS: .710 (better than his 2022 season) Twins fans know that, especially for mid-market teams, it might take several players having solid, if not career years, to win playoff games. However, would “success” re each of these three planks be enough to catapult the Twins into contention? Probably, especially with decent years from other key players. How likely is it that all three, are reached? Low in all probability. The point is that unless a couple of, if not several other, Twins have truly breakout years, even just hitting these three over/unders is not likely to be a winning strategy for ‘23. Hope springs eternal. The FO has pursued a strategy dependent on a few key bets or hoping for breakout years from others. Hey, it’s a strategy and it was put in place with Mahle’s acquisition last year and a reaction bet on Gallo after Correa moved on. We shall see if it’s a good strategy or even how long the FO/ownership stays committed to it.

No idea why we keep undervaluing Gordon. Not only is he producing, but he plays with great heart and energy. Also, there is no reason tho think he has peaked. At the moment he should be an everyday player on this ball club. Let’s see where he gets to - we have a pretty good idea who Gallo is….

Garver, Mitch Garver - lol. Thanks.

Couldn’t agree more Twodogs. If the Twins are either a) not in contention or b) not deluding themselves into thinking they are in contention, Jorge would likely be on the move. If he’s playing well and there is control for another season, he might bring back a quality piece for the next window. The chances are good that the base of the last core - Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, Sano, and even Gardner - are all gone by the end of June. Only Buxton would be left. IMHO, that’s ok - time to move on to the next young core.

How about Farmer and Pagan? For moving on from a young, impatient player, SD gets a quality veteran utility infielder and a relief pitcher who (according to advanced metrics ?) is very, very good. Our FO can’t be the only FO who thinks Pagan is the second coming, right? The entire league must see his greatness as well.

I actually like this trade if we think Kim is someone we’d like long-term. Highly likely Mahle won’t be here next year. Possible he pitches less than 125 innings this season anyway. SD might just hit the bid on that. Having said that, this FO would never pull the trigger on this trade. They are too invested in their Mahle, Gray, Maeda or bust strategy for ‘23. Too bad.

Throw in Gallo too and offer to keep him on our payroll. Lol

“I resolve in 2023 to stay healthy, get in enough MLB innings, and keep improving to prove that I will 100% no doubt be part of the Minnesota Twins roster breaking camp in 2024”. This is the single overriding resolution for each of the following: Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, Wallner, SWR, Varland, Balazovic, and Canterino (and, although they are not “prospects” per se, Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach, Ober, Winder, and Alcala). Now, just imagine if our FO and coaching staff gave each of them the opportunity to make that resolution a reality and each one of them accomplished it…….

To best capitalise on our emerging core (and for Falvey’s future with the Twins), the starting rotation in ‘24 at a minimum should include: a) Ryan, b) the reupped winner of the Mahle, Maeda, Gray sweepstakes, and c) at least two of Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland, and Balazovic. Best case scenario is that three of the youngsters make it and we end of with four quality starters on minimum contracts and under control. That way, if we somehow screw up the Mahle/Maeda/Gray sweepstakes (either all three aren’t very good or none of them want to stay here), we still have more than enough capital to commit to a strong #2 type in next year’s FA market.

No, the point is those players need to play enough and the entire crew of position players and starters and a few relievers get enough innings/ABs to be properly evaluated for being on the big club in ‘24. At least that’s the point I was trying to make………

Here are a few other choices: A. Mahle doesn’t pitch 125 innings. B. Gallo doesn’t hit over 0.225 or 35 HRs. C. Except for injury, each of Wallner, Julien, Martin, Lee and Lewis plays less than 250 innings or has fewer than 125 plate appearances. D. At least two of Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR and Balazovic don’t become pencilled in ‘24 starters. E. They fail to extend the winner of the Maeda/Gray/Maeda sweepstakes. F. The Twins young core do not play enough to not only be assessed, but also be ready for ‘24. G. Rocco is not fired if the Twins inability to play strong fundamental baseball and his inability to manage more wins than losses continue. H. They trade more of our rapidly depleting young talent for washed up one or two year dart throws thinking we can compete this year. In my book they do not get fired this year based on wins or losses alone. Let’s be honest and I hope I’m wrong, but there should be no realistic expectation that this team should compete for a Pennant or even win a playoff game this season. Instead, Falvey and Levine need to be judged on their ability to get this franchise ready to compete with the new young talent coming up - keeping the talent, letting players play and ensuring they are developing/playing smart baseball.

Yes. If that last paragraph came to fruition (btw, I’d add in Wallner and Balazovic) we’d pretty much know exactly what we have in NINE young position players and an additional FOUR young starters. We know what we have in Buxton, Jeffers, Vasquez, Arraez, and Ryan. (Note: Kepler, Gallo, Farmer, Garlick, and most possibly Polanco are not part of the next core). Let’s see what transpires in the Gray, Maeda, and Mahle extension sweepstakes (btw, I have the under on 350 combined innings thrown by those three) and we will have plenty of cash to round out any holes that become apparent next offseason. And yes, this team would be really fun to watch and will likely be the only reason many of us tune in come late June.

Question: what is the biggest difference between the ‘21 Vikes and the ‘22 Vikes? Zimmer gone, KOC in. We want to win more close games? Particularly with our roster that could be very generously described as “average”? Start with playing with excellent fundamentals and “steal” more wins than loses via better in-game management. That begins and ends with Rocco.

Maeda did pretty well. But you’re point is a good one. Come here and you get five innings or two times through the order - whichever comes first. Not a good place to establish yourself as a top FA. Gray probably can’t wait to split. Question: whether we want to or not, how many of Gray, Mahle and Maeda do we extend this season? Answer: zero. If they pitch badly or are injury prone, we won’t want them. If they pitch well, they will want to go on to greener pastures. Either result is a failed strategy.

No worries - we knew who you meant. Btw, add Gallo for $11MM to Correa and Vasquez and your point is even stronger…..

Both