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TwinsDr2021

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Everything posted by TwinsDr2021

  1. TwinsDr2021
    At this point Roden doesn't look like a quality major league player.
  2. TwinsDr2021
    @Cody ChristieI keep hear extending Ryan from writers and commenters. What does that look like? I can only really find two pitchers that even compare to extending Ryan who is locked up though age 31 season. Jacob DeGrom age 30 in 2019 (5/137) and Luis Castillo age 30 (5/108) in 2023. Mets bought out two Arb years of DeGrom and it could be considered a good investment he went 7.2 WAR CY in 2019, 2.6 WAR in 20 (in 12 games), 4.5 WAR in 21 and 1.5 WAR in 2022(but has basically been injured since the 21 season until this year). He signed this extension after winning the CY with a 9.4 WAR and previously had WARS of 3.1, 5.3, 3.4, 4.2 (but ages 33, 34, 35 didn't go to well for him) Seattle bought out the last year of Luis Castillo in before the 2023 season and has put up WARs of 3.2, 1.8, 2.0. Those are the only two, so what does a extension look like? Are the Twins likely to pay a 25 million for a pitcher 33+ (They didn't for Gray?) So I ask again what does an extension look like? in the ball park of 5/125?
  3. TwinsDr2021
    You don't see issues with it? did you look at the link? For pitchers DeGrom was done at age 30 (5/137), Berrios at age 27 (7/131), Castillo at age 30 (5/108), Hendricks at age 30 (4/55), Glasnow at age 29 (2/30), Gray age 29 (3/30), Weaver at age 29 (5/85), Nolasco at age 28 (3/26.5), JA Happ at age 31 (1/5.4) and some others age 28 and younger going back 10-20 years. There really is no precedence in the last 25 years doing what you and others are asking and it doesn't come cheap (something the Twins are known for) and most asking for it will be complaining about a huge contract like Mauer, Donaldson, Correa, Buxton hurting the team. (and I would say just about every one of the above didn't work really work out and one could argue Lopez's at age 27 is still on a wait and see) As for hitters Blackmon did it at age 31 (6/108) I am thinking Colorado regretted that and hey they did it with Tyler Kinley at age 31 (not working either) . (same reason I am against extending any of the Twins players, except Keaschall or even Jenkins ASAP) There have been a few relief pitchers that have worked out (which is also way cheaper) and a couple catchers and utility type players. That is it, but hey Twins players are different I mean we were told the all the mid 20's and later Twins prospects were the exception to the rule and look how well that has been going. I am a huge Twins fan and have all the HOPE in the world that Twins players are going to be great, but I am a realist as well and the idea of extending starting pitchers that you have control of though age 31 is asinine.
  4. TwinsDr2021
    So @mickster I guess you believe guys over 30 should be extended? Check this out! https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arbitration/extensions
  5. TwinsDr2021
    Honest question, is extending a starting pitcher who you have control until almost age 32 (at the end of 2027 he is 31, turns 32 on June 5th in 2028) the smartest move by a "Mid" market team? And what would that cost the Twins to buyout his first real chance a money? Pablo got 4/73 and will be a FA again at the same age Ryan is the first time. I honestly don't see how the math works out for either of them. (I would think the twins would want something like Pablo in terms of years, and Ryan will want something closer to Burnes in terms of years and money) When you bring up pitchers at age 24-26, you hope they turn out like Ryan/Jax/Duran and trade them for big packages (When and what year you do this could be up for debate) and never really pay them and let somebody else pay for the wrong side of age 30 contracts, or Sands, Varland, Ober types where they end up legit major league pitchers and hope to spin them for something prior to being free agents, or they just crap the bed and you move on (Winder, Balazovic. Enlow) SWR is the age of a pitcher you may try buying out a year or two. Other than Keaschall NOBODY and I mean NOBODY on the Twins roster should be considered for an extension.
  6. TwinsDr2021
    Not sure what Mauer being a minority owner does to help, but if we are playing the what if game, I am going to with @chpettit19 won the mega millions and is one of the minority owners and is taking over at GM (just an FYI, I am available in an assistant role) As for you second part of not knowing what is coming, that could be said about anything in life, but you take history and other things that have been done and project, FYI that is baseball works. Sure you can bury your head in the stand and think this 28 year old career minor player is going to work, and ignore the 1000's of examples that says it doesn't. We have seen how this front office works for 8 plus years do you think that is going to change? Sure there has been a surprise here and there (Donaldson, Correa) , but they are going to go cheap, they are going to believe in their process they will makes some trades but ultimately the changes will be around the edge, the team next year will be built the same way as the teams the last 4 years.
  7. TwinsDr2021
    I think Rocco is the face of the failures, not Falvey, and I think firing him helps with public perception. I don't really think firing Falvey and keeping Rocco is an option. But the hatred of Rocco is real, not sure the casual fan know enough about Falvey to have hatred. IMO the order of hatred by casual fans is Owners, Managers and then any high priced player, then injured players, Falvey is some place lower on the list. And if the piece of sh!t owners had half a brain they would realize this and do something, anything to try to win back some casual fan support.
  8. TwinsDr2021
    IMO, Ryan and/or Lopez are gone (one for sure, and likely both). I think Ober stays and the Twins try their whole limited innings, limited days rest with the list of starters that we all hoped would turn out. (Festa, SWR, Matthews, Abel, Bradley and the rest) Probably means Culpepper, Jenkins, GG will be held back to begin the year to reduce cost going forward. I feel like we will become the new Tampa Bay, bring up guys later, sell off, and if they happen to get somebody super young, try to extend like Franco.
  9. TwinsDr2021
    Not sure where to put this but the Star Trib is reporting the Pohlad's aren't selling but instead bringing int two minority owners.
  10. TwinsDr2021
    My point wasn't why you would play him or bring him up this year, my point was if he isn't up this year why protect him on the 40 man. Is there a lot of 26 year old minor league outfielder getting drafted in the Rule 5? (IDK the answer to that, but I assume not) I would rather see him the chance then, Martin, Outman, Roden, Keirsey, McCusker. (Because maybe he could be a starter, while the rest of those guys aren't) (Of course I rather see GG)
  11. TwinsDr2021
    Royce Lewis compares well with most HOF third basemen, Brooks Lee falls in line of lower end HOF shortstops, and Keaschall is likely to be the greatest second basemen in the history of the game. All the Twins need is a future HOF first basemen (Could be any of the following Wallner, Jenkins, or McCusker) to round of the greatest infield in history. I can't see this not happening! 😀
  12. TwinsDr2021
    Why would a team in the Twins position put a 26 year old minor league player on the 40 man? (He turns 26 in just over a month) Unless of course they want to give him a shot this year? and if that is the case, they should go for it, at least that would help clear up some 40 man questions this winter.
  13. TwinsDr2021
    In 25, wasn't it Pablo, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddack, Festa and Matthews? And the rest of the team has gotten worse, How will 26 be any different, other than the two untested guys you mention?
  14. TwinsDr2021
    He is 27 and has a .796 OPS in AAA. No speed and limited defense. His OPS is lower than Martin, Fitzgerald, Erod, Cardenas, Keirsey, Julien, Gasper. In other words he is a non-prospect (Like the whole Bullpen, so.....)
  15. TwinsDr2021
    Viola - 22 , Stewart - 24, Jax - 26, Coulombe - 24, Varland - 24, Duran - 24 Viola is the only one that ended up a starter and was very good one by the time these others were even making the majors, And most of the other guys you mentioned are already 24 or older. Only Abel, Bradley, SWR debuted earlier than age 24. The odds say all of these guys end up in the pen, we can only hope 1 or 2 become decent reliable starters. "Duran is the exception. He never started a game in the majors. He was transitioned to the pen in his final minor league season and has been there since." Duran pitched in 84 games in the minors and started 80 (and two of the four games he didn't start were rehab in 2024) So not sure if one game in relief in St. Paul in 21 counts as transitioned in the pen his final minor league season.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    Going into next year the Twins have too many starters (Notice I didn't say good/great) Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Festa, Matthews, Abel, Bradley, and some others, None are young and sending multiple guys back to the minors overage the age of 25 doesn't seem like a good plan (They did it with Ober and Varland in separate years), with this I fully expect Lopez and/or Ryan trade. That frees up a spot and leaves one less guy in AAA.
  17. TwinsDr2021
    How many teams that worry about service time for guys on the wrong side of 25? They don't because it isn't a issue, you have them controlled though their prime years. Morris turns 24 in 18 days, Raya is 23 (so maybe someone), Prielipp turns 25 in January, Lewis turns 25 in October. Abel turns 24 in a week, Bradley turns 25 in march, Ohl turns 26 next month, MacLeod turns 26 in April, Festa turns 26 in March, Zebby turns 26 in May. If the AA Gallagher, Klein, Culpepper, and others are 23 or older.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    Unless he gets called up this year, he will be a 26 year old minor league player. IMO that is no longer a prospect. (which doesn't mean he can't/won't be a major league player, just not a prospect)
  19. TwinsDr2021
    I posted this in a different article. I am not trying to give him a pass, but I am thinking he is singing Morgan Wallen in his head: Why they ever sign a guy like me in the first place? Then turn around say that I'm the worst thing You hate that when you look at me, you halfway see yourself And it got me thinkin' If I'm the problem The Twins Front Office might be the reason!
  20. TwinsDr2021
    It shouldn't be considered a break, it should be considered this is how you deal with guys that come up in their mid 20's. Keaschall turns 23 next week, so he is right on the edge (they have control though age 27) of if they should or shouldn't extend him, I would lean towards trying to extend him. The idea of extending a player IMO is to get their prime years for cheap(er), if you already have them control of them through their primes there really is no need for the team or player to accept that. (difference between Lopez and Ryan/Ober/Jax/Duran) IMO there really are two ways of dealing with prospects get them up young (23 or younger, preferably even younger) to see what they are, and then either extend or move on when they become a bit expensive (Castro for the TIgers as an example). Or hold off until they are older and never play "real" money for them. (Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, Julien) A player like Royce who got hurt which delayed his debut ends up getting hurt financially. The Twins have him control of him though age 29, so really no need to lock him up, plus with the injuries. For example Roman Anthony is 21 and even with the extension they only have him though age 30 (last year a club option) compared to the Twins who have just about everybody (minus Keashall) already controlled though age 29 or older.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    Anybody, Literally anybody! Vazquez has the sixth most stolen bases attempts against (55)in the league and his caught stealing is slightly above average (24%) He has started 56 games a Jeffers 57, while Jeffers has a lower caught stealing they only attempted 38 against him.
  22. TwinsDr2021
    @Matt Braun Great write up. Vazquez turns 35 in about two weeks, he has a negative WAR and a OPS+ of 38 and the Twins don't have anybody to replace that? The Twins paid 30 million for -.4, -.2, -.1 of WAR the last three years, the idea that Vazquez is the Twins best option for platoon catcher is more proof of how terrible this FO has been. Vazquez shouldn't be a Twins next year and probably shouldn't even be in the majors unless he is coaching.
  23. TwinsDr2021
    Or he helps the Twins get a higher pick, win/win
  24. TwinsDr2021
    And this year we had Keschall, Keirsay, Gasper, Matthews, and any number of prospects we were hoping for. In 24 Martin, Festa, Lee, SWR in 23 Lewis, Wallner, AK, Julien 22 Ryan, Duran, Miranda 21 Larnach, Jeffers, Ober, Gordon Pretty sure a few of those guys were top 100, and I can't see running out there that many rookies (if they have the same starting pitchers) , they have been adverse to giving rookies jobs because of injuries and depth. So I don't see any rookie starting the season besides Keaschall. I see them starting with Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Clemens (and another player to back up first or second), Buxton, Wallner, Roden and some right handed outfielder they bring in (or Martin). agree Larnach will be gone . IMO only Keaschall will have a shot at ROY, unless Lewis, Lee, Buxton (any or all of them) get hurt and then they bring up Culpepper, Jenkins, Erod or GG. I have no faith in this Front Office!
  25. TwinsDr2021
    So swapping France for Clemens, and Jenkins for Bader, Lee for CC is going to be better? I agree I would rather watch this team, it does seem very left handed heavy, but yes, this lineup could be worse. (it also has 4 players that have a injury history, Buxton, Lewis, Lewis and Erod)
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