TwinsDr2021

McClanahan made 28 starts which put him at 5.93 a start and averaged facing 23 batters a game (Not to far off a typical Ryan/Gray start). He didn't pitch in 2020 then went straight to the majors at age 24 from A and AA in 2019. He pitched 123.1 innings in 21. He only had what I would call a Twins start less than 6 innings with less than 3 ER's 3 times and two of them were in his last 4 starts. I would assume they were trying to keep him fresh for the playoffs. To me the big difference with him and the twins pitchers was he was WAY, WAY more efficient with his pitches. He only twice got to 100 pitches and finished at least 7 innings in 25% of his starts. Kluber is what I believe the Twins thought all their pitchers could be, a guy that would pitch under 100 pitchers (never pitched more than 92 and rarely got to 90) and finish 6 innings when on and rarely ever pitch less than 5 (Only 5 times, 6 if you include his first start 4 2/3.) Rasmussen was Kluber except it took him more pitches, but when his was low they seem to let him go further than Kluber. Springs was a stud in the bullpen that was moved to a starter and given more of a leash as the season went on, never really turned into a 6 inning pitcher unless he was lights out which was about 25% of the time.

They started the season with a 6 man rotation and traded for another starter, that is half of the 14, one was 24 year old two time minor league pitcher of the year (had a higher average than the team). two were Top prospects (Winder and SWR - 1 game 5 innings). That gets us to 10. One was Smelzer who as a starter was actually fairly decent and brought the team average up. That leaves us 3 Chic Chi, Sanchez and Sands who made a total 8 starts. Lets not overlook the fact that this FO brought in Bundy (29 starts and 140 innings) and Archer (25 starts and 102.2 innings) and gave them 1/3 of all the teams starts for the year, traded for two injured guys, relied on a often injured guy (Ober) and the back up plan of Smelzter/Winder(injury prone) and cast offs and didn't plan for a bullpen of guys that could go multiple innings and left Varland in the minors much longer than needed when things weren't going well. Also they had 4 starters in the top 87 starters that started games. This is completely on the FO and its plan for the year.

? you can't have 4 to 5 guys going 1 inning night. And it seems you are dead on how to stop that either your bullpen guys need to pitch longer or your starters needs to pitch longer, doesn't seem that hard, and yet the Twins FO hasn't figured it out for two years.

2 outs per game might not seem like a big deal but over the course of the season it is 108 innings. Kind of seems like a lot of innings to fill that the average MLB didn't have to, no? Dig a little deeper into the other numbers and you see they were 29th out of 30th in Quality starts, the average was 59 and they had 35 and remember they weren't using a 1 inning starter, the 3 teams below the Twins Rays, Nationals and Pirates all used a relief pitcher as a starter over 10 times, They were #1 in games where the starter went less 80 pitches with 85 games the average 45 games. They were 30th in games where the starter went between 80-99 with 67 games, the average 92 games. They were 27th in games where the starter went between 100-119 with 10 the average 25 games. I will say it again, I am not complaining about what they did last year (at least not here) and I understand some of the circumstances that may have lead to this. But to lead the majors in starts with starters having less than 99 pitches and be 29th in quality starts without ever user a "Starter" can't be summed up as "well the Twins are doing what everybody else is doing". Also my fuzzy math looks like if you remove the "starter" starts from the Rays, Pirates and Nationals the Twins drop to dead last in IP/GS.

Canterino turns 25 in just over a month and has pitched 60 innings since 2019 his time as a starter is over, because it will take a couple of years to stretch him out anyway. He has the ability to be like one of the Astros relief pitchers and that is what he should be groomed for. Given him some innings in the minors and if he is good get him up to the Twins bullpen. I think Alcala should be start out as a low pressure guy until he proves he is back and better than ever. Both these two should/could jump Jax in the pecking order and pass the ball off to Duran and Lopez.

The Twins need every regular RP to be better than Jax, he gave up ER's in 17 of his 65 games, that is 1 out of 4 games. With as much as the Twins use the bullpen that has to be better. They need Lopez to the be the Baltimore version, they need Duran to be Duran, they need Moran to be as good or better than last year, they need Fulmer to be better than he was last year. Thielbar needs to be as good as he was last year. When you use the bullpen as much as they do they have to be good 9 out of 10 outings.

I was comparing WAR between the two teams not really the players. The Twins have a total of 8 (5 for Celestino, 3 for Alcala) controllable seasons left out of 14 so the Twins still have some time to make this trade good or better. Alcala's last season was 21 and in his 59 games only 16 were high leverage and mostly against really bad teams at the end of the year, so he still has quite a lot to prove and my guess he will be brought along slowly in 23, IMO Celestino hasn't made great strides and unless things go real bad in 23 he shouldn't be playing in the majors unless he is amazing in AAA. I will give you that Alcala's career is similiar to Pressly's which bodes well for him and maybe the Twins.

Alcala turns 28 in July and Celestino turns 24 in February I would argue neither are still young. The have combined parts of 6 seasons and have a combined WAR of .9 and Pressly has a WAR of 6. Alcala has 11 career holds, 1 save and 5 blow saves, he still needs to earn a high leverage role. I think he can but he still has work to do and Celestino hasn't really done anything to prove he is more than a minor league player. Teams that are trying to win can't have a player like Celestion as Plan A for anything.

He averaged 89 in 2022 so basically he did that last year when he was on, is problem was he wasn't very efficient sometimes. The question would be if he is more efficient would his innings go up?

I think you missed this - This response wasn't complaining about what they are doing it is to point out in fact what they are and have been doing

2021 Berrios Innings, ER, pitches, batters faced 6, 0, 84, 19 5.2, 2 ,99, 23 4.1, 4, 77, 18 5, 1 ,89, 19 5.2, 2, 83,23 Then in May 6, 4, 95, 25 6, 2, 104, 27 7, 4, 103, 29 5, 3, 84, 19 5.2, 1, 106, 27 8, 1, 101, 29 6, 4, 99, 26 7, 2, 99, 27 6, 3, 103, 27 6,1, 1, 96, 29 6, 4, 99, 26, 7, 2, 99, 27 6, 3, 103, 27 6.1, 96, 24 5, 3, 89, 26 7, 1, 106, 25 7, 4, 108, 27 6, 5, 94, 24 7, 0, 101, 26 So yes I do think after they realized they couldn't sign him they were show casing him. In 2020 they let him go 100 pitches twice, and 4 times he faced more than 24 or more batters. In 2019 of his 32 starts 12 times he pitched 100 pitches he did face more batters that year but most pitchers did as well.

You say this like it is true, average innings per start isn't really a good start unless you dig into way it is what it is. Maybe average start based on earned runs would be better. Because his average start where he game up 3 or less runs was much higher in the past than it was with the Twins (I left out 18 because he had so many relief games but is was pretty much give up less than 3 runs and start the 6th) In 17 he started 27 games and in 21 of those he started the 6th inning, 19 of those he completed the 6th. 2 games he went 5. In 19 he started 31 games and in 20 of those he started the 6th inning, 17 of those he completed the 6th. 6 games he went 5. In 20 he started 11 games and in 7 of those he started the 6th, 5 of those he completed the 6th. 2 games he went 5. In 21 he started 26 games and 10 of those he started the 6th, 9 of those he completed the 6th. 6 games he went 5. In 22 he stared 24 games and in 9 of those he started and completed the 6th. 5 games he went 5. His problem is the past is there has been too many games he just wasn't good, In 17 the only games he didn't go at least 5 where games he gave up more than 4 runs and there was only 1 game where he didn't complete 5 giving up less than 3 earned runs and he went 5 2/3. In 19 there was only two games where he had given up 2 runs or less that he didn't finish the 6th. In 20 there was only two games he gave up 2 runs or less and didn't start the 6th. In 21 there were 3 games where he gave up 2 runs or less and didn't start the 6th. In 22 there were 9 games (more than a 1/3 of his starts) where he gave up 2 or less earned runs that he didn't start the 6th. I am not saying they did something crazy or even wrong with Gray last year, just pointing out that what you are saying isn't exactly accurate.

They tried to let Mahle do it? His first two games were perfectly in alignment with the rest of the season. 86 pitches (both games) and 22 batters faced (both games) the second game he had a 3 hit shutout going. (These numbers were way down compared to what he was doing for the Reds) Also the Twins philosophy has been the same for a few years now minus when they where showcasing Berrios for those few starts. Keep it under 100, face 22 batters (or less) and if you keep your pitch count down, hits and walks down, you can start the 5th or 6th inning, maybe the 7th, just don't let anybody get on base or face the opposite handed batter. This response wasn't complaining about what they are doing it is to point out in fact what they are and have been doing. Will they change this next year, I highly, highly doubt it. Doesn't mean one of more of the starters couldn't average 6ish innings per start but for that to happen they would have to be amazing in most starts.

My point was you were comparing a high school kid (drafted) who was a teenager (or 20) to a college kid that was 23 all of last year. There may be examples of a 24 year old prospect that turned it around defensively and became valuable SS but using Jeter as an example is a huge leap. When talking about prospects age matters and ignoring that ignores the history of baseball. What some call negative others call being a realist, it is no different than Winder, Ober, Varland and even Joe Ryan becoming what some call an Ace. It is not that they can't but man they are fighting the odds. (We all hope 1 or more of them do, but some of us are setting are expectations a bit more realistically. ) With that said Martin can and hopefully becomes a viable major league player or better.

You aren't really comparing a 23 year old Martin to a Guy that debuted at the age of 21 are we and won Rookie of the year at age 21/22?

Everybody subscribes to this, I can't imagine anybody saying hey let the lesser pitchers pitch more. The issue with this is reality. Some guys are as successful as they are because they are limited to one inning some two. Look at Jax (and maybe Sands) when asked to do less they actually could do more. Some guys are really good pitching 4 or 5 innings full effort but have nothing left for the 6th and on. Some guys are building arm strength because of injuries or what not. You may not realize it but the Twins pretty much did this year what you are wanting. They felt Archer was better than anybody else they had for 4 innings (they tried for 5 and he didn't have it) they though Bundy was the best guy they had for 5 innings, With that said, I agree a right handed outfielder should be number 1 priority.

Is that the new legal PED?

27 pitchers pitched at least 180 innings last year, 8 pitched 200. If I was running a team the only guys I would pay 20+ is guys that average 6+ innings. And Rodon isn't one of them. Just my opinion.

Then don't pay big money for a guy, seems simple. Pay a guy like Bundy or use your prospects.

Unless SS has the name Correa or Turner, this could end up being the worst infield in the majors if things go array. If Arraez continues to hit and Miranda really, really improves and Gio is solid it could be one of the better. I would trade Polanco if and only if I signed Turner or Correa. There is no chance I am going into next year with Buxton's injury questions, Larnach/Ak questions, Miranda questions, question at 2B and all the health questions with the pitchers. Because if things go wrong it could be the end of this FO.

If I was running a team I would have a hard time paying 20 million plus for 180 innings. (Let alone 25-30)

Canterino will be 25 in December and has pitched 85 innings in the minors (since 2019) so I agree the odds of him becoming an Ace is probably low. DeGrom is a unicorn, he started out as a SS in college and moved to relief than starter. Didn't hit the minors until he was 22 and make the majors until he was 26. At no point should any team EVER think somebody would end up like DeGrom. Of course how great he has been he only has 82 wins and only 1326 innings in his 9 year career. (To compare Verlander had 83 wins by age 27, Cole had 84 by age 28)

Maybe Kodai Senga, but have no idea. The rest of them are just more expensive 5 inning pitchers, there isn't one on that list that screams to this FO/Manager let him go another inning, or ignore it is the 6th and the batter up is opposite handed but should be left in. The only starter that should be brought in should be the type that makes the FO/Manager veer off its philosophy.

Unless the plan continues to be only pitch twice though a lineup, then it seems like a huge mistake to pay big money to a pitcher to do that. Now it seems like it would even be a better idea to use your prospects for that and spend money on offensive.

? Just pointing out to people that it isn't cheap to get a guy from another team, let alone dumping your garbage off on another team and thinking they will jump at that opportunity.