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TwinsDr2021

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Everything posted by TwinsDr2021

  1. TwinsDr2021
    Well I fully expect Maeda to be limited to start the season 50-75 pitches for at least a few starts, and it reality I think all the starters will be limited to start the season 60 - 85 or so. (Not saying that is a bad thing, just how it usually goes) and there could be a few times the run up that pitch count in 3 or 4 innings and will need guys to pick up the slack. When things get rolling I am hoping they get at least 5 innings every start and 6 most nights and then you won't need as many multiple innings guys, but to start the season I think it is better to have more than run 4 pitchers out there 3 nights in a row. As far a Ober, I give him another chance to be a starter and if he can't hold up, move him to the pen or move on from him. As for the 35 year old Maeda besides for about 8 games in 20 he hasn't done much to prove he belongs in the rotation. He is a free agent at the end of the year they don't owe him anything, so I make him prove he belongs back in the rotation.
  2. TwinsDr2021
    if you are shooting for average or below, I guess not. but I actually didn't say it was a good or bad, right or wrong I posted the actual numbers for the Twins, and said it is a fair statement to make, based on a 3 year trend. It is weird how everybody loves stats and numbers, until they actually go against a feeling.
  3. TwinsDr2021
    Paddack? he has pitched 36 innings since July of 21, so call me crazy but he has quite a bit to prove before given a starting job (I hope he does), Ryan has to prove that he is someplace in between who he was last year against the Royals/Tigers and the rest of the league IMO (I again I hope he does and have faith that he will, but....) Ober has been pretty/really good when healthy and in a limited role and needs to prove he can be stay healthy before writing his name down as a starter the next few year, again IMO. So as of 2/2/22 for 24, you have 1 in Lopez, 1 likely in Ryan, 1 probably in Ober, and 1 hopeful in Paddack. So they all work out and the other prospects don't they could try to resign Mahle/Gray/Maeda or a young guys steps up they are fine. But if only one or two of Ryan/Ober/Paddack works out then we are back to trying to fill a couple of spots.
  4. TwinsDr2021
    I put Winder in the pen because he showed at times last year he could take on a good team for multiple innings (mostly pre-injury) and he could be used more as a piggy back guy or somebody to come in when something bad happens to a starter and pitch 3,4,5 innings or spot start if needed. I think of Alcala as a 1 inning, 6th, 7th or 8th inning guy depending on needs or matchups.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    So the Twins FO like some of the fans thought that Kepler had more value then he actually had, so they are deciding it is better to keep him (at least for the time being) then to trade him. I think realistic fans assumed this would probably be the case. Take a chance with the new rules on a guy that has been pretty good over a low level prospect.
  6. TwinsDr2021
    2019 - 5.5, league average 5.2, Twins 9th 2020 - 4.7, league average 4.8, Twins 17th 2021 - 4.9, league average 5.0, Twins 20th 2022 - 4.8, league average 5.2, Twins 27th Maybe it was not the strategy and 19 is the real strategy (which beside Berrios the other 4 main starters were below 5.66) or maybe it is all just a matter of circumstances, Either way until they reverse the trend I think it is fair statement to make.
  7. TwinsDr2021
    With Gray, Mahle and Maeda being free agents at the end of the year I hope this FO thinks they are a legit team this year and not playing lets wait and see, because if they are thinking lets wait and see, I would rather that be with prospects that have a chance to be here longer and trade those pitchers for more young pitching prospects. The Twins 40 man is loaded with starters, Balazovic, Gray, Headrick, Henriquez, Lopez, Maeda, Mahle, Ober, Paddack (I know he is hurt), Sands (probably a relief pitcher), Varland, Winder and SWR. Lets be honest only two are young (Henriquez and SWR), and unless there are real plans to sign Gray, Mahle and Maeda they are going to have to know what they have with this prospects sooner than later and there should be enough innings to do that with them in the majors this year, even if it means a partial 6 man rotation type of thing.
  8. TwinsDr2021
    Because he pitched three total innings last year, and never has been great, so IMO he has to prove he is back and better than he ever has been, or he is the last guy out of the pen or maybe 1 before Pagan. Doesn't seem like the best way for him to get the innings he needs. Maybe in spring training he is awesome and flat out better than a handful of guys and forces his way onto the team (Which was would great!) but as of 2/2 I don't think he should be considered a lock to start the season in MPLS.
  9. TwinsDr2021
    Ober pitched 72 innings last year and had an ERA of 3.21, Varland pitched 152 innings last year and is two time defending pitcher of the year, and Winder pitched 85 innings last year, so 60? What I am saying is basically three of your best pitching prospects are all over the age of 25 and not good enough to start in the majors, that has to mean the ones above are really, really good, so the expectation should be pretty high if your starters are that good, no? or this FO is terrible at developing pitchers, it has to be one of the two, doesn't it?
  10. TwinsDr2021
    I see what you are saying but both teams got their stud pitchers the most starts, so if the Twins did something like 30 for Lopez, 28 for Gray, 28 for Mahle, 28, 26 for Ryan, 24 for Ober, and 20-22 for Maeda, that I could agree with. But not running 6 guys out there to get equal starts (assuming no injuries of course)
  11. TwinsDr2021
    Not saying you are wrong but if the twins put 27 year old Ober, 26 year old Winder and 25 year old Varland in the minors, the expectation for the should be a deep run in the playoffs and nothing less should be acceptable.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    I don't disagree with your take of a 6 man rotation, because Ober and for sure Maeda will be limited at least for a bit. But do you really trade Arraez for a guy that is only going to pitch once every 6 days? It is more evidence to me this FO is making things up as they go with no real plan. Going into 24 they have Lopez as a for sure starter (assuming he doesn't get hurt) and to me this is a prove it year for Ryan (based on how he did against teams not named Tigers or Royals), it is also a prove it year for Ober, is what he has done for real and can he stay healthy. So at minimum they need a prospect to step it up this year (Winder, SWR, Varland, whomever, but that pitcher needs 15-20 starts this year just so next year can be a prove it year. Or the Twins are going to go into every year searching for a couple of starters. (That is getting old)
  13. TwinsDr2021
    They way I see it, if they go with a 13 man pitching staff, They have Lopez, Gray, Mahle, Ryan and Ober, the the relief pitchers Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Maeda, Winder, Moran and Pagen. With Sands, Varland, Megill, Henriquez and Alcala next up. So unless they plan on trading or cutting Pagen or Megill it doesn't make sense to bring in another arm and let Varland, Alcala, and Sands rot in the minors. It isn't like these are young guys that just need more time, they either need to pitch in the majors or be let go.
  14. TwinsDr2021
    Larnach will be 26 next month, AK just turned 25, I think them not being "young" anymore has more to do with it then perception, but that is just me, considering Arraez for example won't be 26 until next April. They both won't be FA for 4 years so that is good, that they wasted 2 years each isn't.
  15. TwinsDr2021
    it took 4 years for Santana to become a full time starter and he was in his early 20's, that would put Duran close to 30, so I don't think they are fair comparisons. Liriano would be a better comparison because of his injury at age 23, but he isn't used because that didn't turn out so well, correct?
  16. TwinsDr2021
    It has to be Correa, Buxton and Lopez, followed closely by Gray. Because if it isn't there is a good chance something has gone wrong with another season. Those 4 this front office gave up a lot to get (money and players)
  17. TwinsDr2021
    Why are people comparing Duran to Santana? Santana was a 21 year old rule 5 guy that took 4 full years to move fully into the rotation. Duran is 25 (24 last year) coming off of an injury plagued 21 and no pitching in 20. And lets not forget not a great minor league starter (Either was Santana for that matter). If you give Duran 30 this year he going to average 4 innings per starter, because there is no chance they jump his innings from 83 to 150.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    Trading a 27 year old pitcher (who I am not the biggest fan of) that put up better numbers in an injury shortened season then a 33 year old May basically ever has (minus 2019, which was 4 season ago) is the sign of a franchise that hasn't a clue. Trading Canterino for another relief pitcher would be a mistake IMO but wouldn't be the end of the world, but pitchers like Ober can't always be found or every team would be loaded with guys like him and they aren't, the Twins have how many of him? 2 maybe if you include Winder? Now David Bednar for those two....... As for prospects of course they are overvalue, I have been saying that for decades, but you don't trade prospects for middling relief pitchers (unless it is the deadline) you trade them for solid major league players.
  19. TwinsDr2021
    why, why, why would you do this, currently May has a negative trade value, less than Pagan. This would be a terrible trade for the Twins. There is a decent chance that both Ober and Canterino will be better this year than May.
  20. TwinsDr2021
    I guess I am missing your point, some of the pitchers you mentioned were limited do to injuries and/or building up their arm, the others were limited because of the lack of time they spent in the minors. Which I am not sure what has to do with Duran, his innings were limited because of injuries and at times just not being very good. In the majors he was switched to the bullpen and things clicked, Can/should he switched back is the question, and IMO if they want to try him as a starter they need to build his innings up, which I would do by leaving him in the pen but letting him be more of a fireman, sometimes an inning, sometimes two and sometimes three and he can do that next year they could put him in the rotation, If they just put him there this year he would be limited to around 20/25 starts at 5 innings a start and probably early in the year more like 3 or 4 innings starts, that seems like a bad way to use him, IMO.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    You missed my points. #1 he was never close to being great in the minors as a starter. #2 he needs to be stretched out and that takes time they are not going to let him jump from 67.66 to 150+ innings, they aren't. Then you comparing him to Verlander, Cole, and Nola is absolutely crazy talk, when you pulled there minor league numbers, you left out the fact that Verlander didn't even spend a whole season in the minors and pitched more innings than Duran has. How about Cole 130 total in 11 (College), 132 in 12 (minors) and in 13 68 (minors) then 117.33 in the majors. Nola 100 in 12(College), In 13 126 in college, in 14 116.33 in college and 55.33 in the minors, the next year 109.33 in the minors and another 77.66 in the majors? As for Winder, Ober, Paddack using them to compare anybody doesn't win a discussion unless you are trying to convince somebody about injury prone.
  22. TwinsDr2021
    Was it is his 5.06 ERA in AAA last year as a starter with 13 walks in 16 innings that sways you to him being a starter? Only once in his minor league career did he have an ERA below 3.25 and that was in 6 starts in A ball back in 2018. He has never pitched more than 115 innings in a season. So if the Twins wanted to make him a starter this year maybe his innings jump from 83 2/3 to 130ish? that means 25, 5 innings starts, yea. I would much rather they stretch him out to 100/110 innings this year using him as a fireman type role and if that works maybe next year give him a spot in the rotation.
  23. TwinsDr2021
    Are you expecting a 29 year old FA pitcher coming off of four years with a WAR of 2.8 or more to settle for a Paddock type deal? Lets be real if he pitches the next two years similiar or better than the last two he will be looking and getting Berrios, Gausman, Ray type money not some rinky dink 4 million dollars a year, maybe if he gets injured you could be looking at a one year deal worth north of 10 million.
  24. TwinsDr2021
    💯, zero chance I pay anything additional outside of my hulu and netflix to watch baseball. Wouldn't cancel hulu over a $3 monthly increase to watch the Twins. To me the biggest problem is it is has been a few years that streamers haven't seen the Twins and we/I have figured other ways to get my twins fix. Sent a quick email to my fantasy baseball league (12 players, between ages 38-70) and asked what they would be willing to pay a month to watch the Twins if they can't now, 9 of 12 stream and the answers were between $0 and $7 a month, and only 2 of the 9 said they pay something outside of their Hulu or youtube.
  25. TwinsDr2021
    Cron and Schoop both had two of their worst years in 2019 based on WAR, also is the Twins mission having a solid defensive team, they seem to be failing on that one. Is this front office trying to build a civilization or a baseball team to win a playoff game? You are correct there are a large chunk of fans that have waited their whole entire life time for a playoff win.
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