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TwinsDr2021

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Everything posted by TwinsDr2021

  1. TwinsDr2021
    I think he should be competing with AK and Larnach for a major league job. The Twins seem to have a bunch of older prospects that people are expecting huge things from, not sure I am so optimistic guys in their mid 20's figuring it out to become solid major players.
  2. TwinsDr2021
    He was 8 -0 with a .94 ERA agaisnt KC and Detroit, and 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA against everybody else. He could be a future ace but he must get better against teams that aren't running out an AAA lineup. I hope and think he can but until he does, he will continually have to prove he deserves to be a starting pitcher.
  3. TwinsDr2021
    I don't accept that we need to change (or at least me) definition of ace, because that means us fans we are OK with teams taking out pitchers like, Kershaw, Verlander, Santana, Bieber, etc.. after 5/6 innings because of some crazy stats that include pitchers of all ilk. If teams really start taking out the best starting pitchers on the planet and using them the same way teams use pitchers like Bundy for example makes baseball worse off. As a 50 year old imagine if we didn't get to see the greatness of pitchers like Johnson, Maddux, Pedro, Santana, Glavine, Clemens, Verlander, Kershaw and many, many others?
  4. TwinsDr2021
    So giving Gray credit for games he didn't pitch, but not giving the others the same latitude Woodruff (27 games), Cortes (28 games), Wheeler (26 games), Castillo (25 games) to the others seems like a huge stretch, especially since Gray hasn't been that pitcher in a while. I am good with what Gray is, and hoping he becomes a guy a guy that is pitching into the 7th or 8th just about every start is probably setting yourself up for failure.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    IMO prospects ranking based on the odds they become All Star type players or how they compare to other players of similiar ages and skills. Like I said Dozier bucked the odds by becoming an all star one time, IMO middle infielders tend to be done earlier is because they lack some of the skills needed to play into their middle or late 30's and can be replaced by younger cheaper talent and when they come up in their mid 20's their career will tend to be shorter. I mentioned in another thread why Arraez wasn't a highly ranked prospect (lack of power, lack of speed and lack of position) and as he proved his bat to ball skills played against tougher competition he moved up the rankings and was in the majors at age 22.
  6. TwinsDr2021
    Dozier didn't make the list because he was considered old for a prospect, he didn't debut until he was 25, he bucked the odds with 3 great years 2 good years and 2 good years and was done by age 32. He is one of the better players ever to debut at 25, which should be a reminder to all when you are talking about prospects this age that aren't in the majors you really should be realistic and think they could be role players. If you look at that list, look how many players are still playing and at a high level, sure they missed on some, (who is Brett Jackson at 27?) Looks at the players that are still playing at an all star level. Harper, Trout, Darvish, Machado, Cole, Arendado, guys ranked in the top 13. That doesn't include guys ranked lower, Wheeler, Rizzo, Lindor, Yelich, Bell, Springer.... You can basically bet if guys don't end up nationally ranked they won't ever be all stars, yes they miss some but again the odds say......
  7. TwinsDr2021
    Hard to argue with any of those besides catcher, I am taking Perez for sure. What is really shows is how terrible the division is and how the bad where the Twins the last two years.
  8. TwinsDr2021
    Correct, Arraez was a high average player with no speed, no position and no power. So he slowly moved up the lists when he showed he could hit pitching at any level, I don't think they prospect rankings got him wrong, that type of player doesn't project to be an all star type player, He has proved them wrong but I would still not bet on players like that going forward.
  9. TwinsDr2021
    I think #7 is fair for him, if he does what we hope he does he moves up to the top 2 next year if Lewis and Lee are in the majors. (Maybe even if Lee isn't) If he has a set back or something goes wrong he drops down in the low teens. To me that is generally how the rankings go, based on upside (with some stats to back it up)
  10. TwinsDr2021
    He needs to get innings in this year (and be real good) and then fly though the system next year so that he is knocking on the door of the majors late next year or early 25, otherwise he just turns into another25 year old pitching prospects that nobody feels comfortable giving a starting job to. (He could be one of those rate pitchers that really take off in their mid to late 20's because of how little he actually has pitched, but again that is very, very rare) Good luck to him!
  11. TwinsDr2021
    Please can we stop comparing Wallner and Gallo (I hated the signing), Gallo got more major league action as a 21 year old than Wallner did as a 24 year old. Gallo was an all star his age 25 season, Wallner is unlikely to make the opening day roster at age 25. IMO Wallner isn't even a prospect (or barely is one) anymore, he is 25, sure he can make some tweaks here and there to be better, but you just don't see players this age transforming into something different than what they are. Which is the same reason I hated the Gallo signing, he is 28 and getting worse.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    IMO, When looking at prospects; age is huge indicator of future success, Wallner is 25 with 65 major league at bats, and history shows that type of player never turns into anything other then a possibly starting player but not an all star type player. Where as a 19 year old SS with skills has a much better chance (still not great) to be an all star type player. Still in Salas case if he ended up like Gordon that would be an amazing success story.
  13. TwinsDr2021
    agreed, maybe us fans should be shooting higher than a guy that blew close to 25% of his save/hold chances. I like Jax and think he will be a good relief pitcher, but I am hoping for a relief core that is all better than Jax last year.
  14. TwinsDr2021
    Well I fully expect Maeda to be limited to start the season 50-75 pitches for at least a few starts, and it reality I think all the starters will be limited to start the season 60 - 85 or so. (Not saying that is a bad thing, just how it usually goes) and there could be a few times the run up that pitch count in 3 or 4 innings and will need guys to pick up the slack. When things get rolling I am hoping they get at least 5 innings every start and 6 most nights and then you won't need as many multiple innings guys, but to start the season I think it is better to have more than run 4 pitchers out there 3 nights in a row. As far a Ober, I give him another chance to be a starter and if he can't hold up, move him to the pen or move on from him. As for the 35 year old Maeda besides for about 8 games in 20 he hasn't done much to prove he belongs in the rotation. He is a free agent at the end of the year they don't owe him anything, so I make him prove he belongs back in the rotation.
  15. TwinsDr2021
    if you are shooting for average or below, I guess not. but I actually didn't say it was a good or bad, right or wrong I posted the actual numbers for the Twins, and said it is a fair statement to make, based on a 3 year trend. It is weird how everybody loves stats and numbers, until they actually go against a feeling.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    Paddack? he has pitched 36 innings since July of 21, so call me crazy but he has quite a bit to prove before given a starting job (I hope he does), Ryan has to prove that he is someplace in between who he was last year against the Royals/Tigers and the rest of the league IMO (I again I hope he does and have faith that he will, but....) Ober has been pretty/really good when healthy and in a limited role and needs to prove he can be stay healthy before writing his name down as a starter the next few year, again IMO. So as of 2/2/22 for 24, you have 1 in Lopez, 1 likely in Ryan, 1 probably in Ober, and 1 hopeful in Paddack. So they all work out and the other prospects don't they could try to resign Mahle/Gray/Maeda or a young guys steps up they are fine. But if only one or two of Ryan/Ober/Paddack works out then we are back to trying to fill a couple of spots.
  17. TwinsDr2021
    I put Winder in the pen because he showed at times last year he could take on a good team for multiple innings (mostly pre-injury) and he could be used more as a piggy back guy or somebody to come in when something bad happens to a starter and pitch 3,4,5 innings or spot start if needed. I think of Alcala as a 1 inning, 6th, 7th or 8th inning guy depending on needs or matchups.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    So the Twins FO like some of the fans thought that Kepler had more value then he actually had, so they are deciding it is better to keep him (at least for the time being) then to trade him. I think realistic fans assumed this would probably be the case. Take a chance with the new rules on a guy that has been pretty good over a low level prospect.
  19. TwinsDr2021
    2019 - 5.5, league average 5.2, Twins 9th 2020 - 4.7, league average 4.8, Twins 17th 2021 - 4.9, league average 5.0, Twins 20th 2022 - 4.8, league average 5.2, Twins 27th Maybe it was not the strategy and 19 is the real strategy (which beside Berrios the other 4 main starters were below 5.66) or maybe it is all just a matter of circumstances, Either way until they reverse the trend I think it is fair statement to make.
  20. TwinsDr2021
    With Gray, Mahle and Maeda being free agents at the end of the year I hope this FO thinks they are a legit team this year and not playing lets wait and see, because if they are thinking lets wait and see, I would rather that be with prospects that have a chance to be here longer and trade those pitchers for more young pitching prospects. The Twins 40 man is loaded with starters, Balazovic, Gray, Headrick, Henriquez, Lopez, Maeda, Mahle, Ober, Paddack (I know he is hurt), Sands (probably a relief pitcher), Varland, Winder and SWR. Lets be honest only two are young (Henriquez and SWR), and unless there are real plans to sign Gray, Mahle and Maeda they are going to have to know what they have with this prospects sooner than later and there should be enough innings to do that with them in the majors this year, even if it means a partial 6 man rotation type of thing.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    Because he pitched three total innings last year, and never has been great, so IMO he has to prove he is back and better than he ever has been, or he is the last guy out of the pen or maybe 1 before Pagan. Doesn't seem like the best way for him to get the innings he needs. Maybe in spring training he is awesome and flat out better than a handful of guys and forces his way onto the team (Which was would great!) but as of 2/2 I don't think he should be considered a lock to start the season in MPLS.
  22. TwinsDr2021
    Ober pitched 72 innings last year and had an ERA of 3.21, Varland pitched 152 innings last year and is two time defending pitcher of the year, and Winder pitched 85 innings last year, so 60? What I am saying is basically three of your best pitching prospects are all over the age of 25 and not good enough to start in the majors, that has to mean the ones above are really, really good, so the expectation should be pretty high if your starters are that good, no? or this FO is terrible at developing pitchers, it has to be one of the two, doesn't it?
  23. TwinsDr2021
    I see what you are saying but both teams got their stud pitchers the most starts, so if the Twins did something like 30 for Lopez, 28 for Gray, 28 for Mahle, 28, 26 for Ryan, 24 for Ober, and 20-22 for Maeda, that I could agree with. But not running 6 guys out there to get equal starts (assuming no injuries of course)
  24. TwinsDr2021
    Not saying you are wrong but if the twins put 27 year old Ober, 26 year old Winder and 25 year old Varland in the minors, the expectation for the should be a deep run in the playoffs and nothing less should be acceptable.
  25. TwinsDr2021
    I don't disagree with your take of a 6 man rotation, because Ober and for sure Maeda will be limited at least for a bit. But do you really trade Arraez for a guy that is only going to pitch once every 6 days? It is more evidence to me this FO is making things up as they go with no real plan. Going into 24 they have Lopez as a for sure starter (assuming he doesn't get hurt) and to me this is a prove it year for Ryan (based on how he did against teams not named Tigers or Royals), it is also a prove it year for Ober, is what he has done for real and can he stay healthy. So at minimum they need a prospect to step it up this year (Winder, SWR, Varland, whomever, but that pitcher needs 15-20 starts this year just so next year can be a prove it year. Or the Twins are going to go into every year searching for a couple of starters. (That is getting old)
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