TwinsDr2021

You are saying there isn't data that players that debut at age 24 or older generally don't turn into above average or better full time players outside of catchers and relief pitchers? Are there players in the majors like this, absolutely there is, but in a game that revolves around statistics and odds I feel pretty comfortable saying that if a 24 year old player needs more time to develop in the minors he probably isn't the type of player we are hoping he is. In this case it seems he is blocked based on the other players on the Twins and possibly the lack of position flexibility and that is a different story. (Similar to Jeremy Pena in 21 with Houston, he didn't need more time to develop he needed a job opening, they had Correa, Altuve and Alvarez blocking him) EDIT - In the last 20 or so years on the Twins I found a few players that debuted at around age 24 or so. Dozier, Jacque Jones, Koskie, Mohr, Span, Coomer and Lecroy (both catchers and a bunch of other catchers), Ford, Maybe Punto, Bartlett, Tiffee, Maybe Hocking, Blake, Kielty, Chad Allen, Buchanan, Lamb, Mike Ryan, Prieto, Luis Rodriquez, Tyner?, Rabe, Garrett Jones, Darnell McDonald, Pridie, Macri, Tolbert, Repko, Plouffe, Hughes, Tosoni, Dinkelman, Clete Thomas, Matt Carson, Valencia, Florimon, Mastroianni, Colabello, Presley, Beresford, Robinson, Herrmann, Fuld, Granite, Goodrum, Austin, LaMarre, The Turtle, Field, Motter, Cave, Wade, Ian Miller, Nick Gordon, Rooker, Refsnyder, Garlick, Iidemoaro Vargas, Larnach, Wallner, Contreras, Palacios So yes a few of them had decent season and maybe even played a decent amount of seasons, but again the odds are if you need seasoning at age 24, the best you can hope for is a Koskie, Dozier, Barlett. Jones type of career .

The Saints pitching staff better be good, Varland is 25, Headrick is 25, Ober will be 28 in July, Dobnak is 28, Winder is 26, Sands will be 26 in July, Balazovic is 24 1/2, SWR is 22 and a former top 100 prospect. Henriquez will be 23 in June, Donato is 28, De Leon is 30, Dereck Rodrigue is close to 31, Fundeburk is 26, Even Enlow turns 24 this month. Festa turns 23 in a few days. Canterino (I know he is hurt) just turned 25. Only SWR , Henriquez and Festa would be considered young and they won't be for all that much longer. Yes some of these guys are "just in case" depth, but as a whole they are either old or on the old side and IMO and only SWR , Henrquez Festa are real prospects. First Ober should be in the majors, either starting the season with a 6 man rotation or in the pen. Second none of of the players above should be blocking real prospects (the 3 above) and others like Prielipp or Festa. I am not really sure how you consider players in this age bracket with little or no major league experience a pitching pipeline, unless of course they goal is to keep pitching costs down by promoting old prospects. With that said I expect injuries and guys like Varland, Headrick, and Winder to be pitching in the majors this year, but if they aren't good there really is no reason to continue to have them taking up 40 man roster spots.

Jeffers career OPS+ is 88 and Vazquez is 85. With Jeffer's defensive liabilities you would hope his bat is better I get that, Based on my limited research I would say this year and maybe next will determine Jeffers future, if he gets better he could become a starting catcher, if not he will probably just be catcher depth for some team.

I agree with this take, I don't see a spot for him. If somebody is hurt I think he should be given the first chance (he is already on the 40 man) I will add he turns 24 next month so the talk about him needing to be in the minors is strange to me, by 24 you either can play (I believe he can) or you can't or you do need more time and end up just being a average player that bounces around, except in the case where you don't have a position, you have a real short career.

It is closer to realistic isn't it? Compare how it took a couple of years for France to be a 3+ WAR player and what Miranda could do to that or better quicker, Couldn't we compare Verlander's 2006 season to Ryan last year? Same type of comparison.

100% agree, but there is tons of those types of comparisons on this site, Arraez to Carew, and every prospect to a future hall of fame player. So why not Miranda to a future Hall of Famer that debuted at SS at 19 years old.

Robbie Ray pitched 189 inning last year (15th best in the league), had 212 K's (7th), 18 quality starts (tied for 18th in league), and made 32 starts (tied for 2nd). Is that what a 5th starter is? or one of the worst FA signings ever? Just an FYI - Rodon signed a 162 million, sure it is for ONLY 27 a year, but the value is 100 million more.

I see little to no chance he accepts a 2 year extension. He will end 24 having just recently turned 30, why would he take a two year extension, when some team will give 5,6,or possibly 7 years? IMO if you want to buy out his first two years of FA if would have to be for much more than 60 million, something closer to 80 million. Why in the world would the Brewers take a pitcher just a year younger than Burnes who (predictions so far) isn't good enough to make the majors to start this year and has a long history of injuries? and two other prospects on the wrong side of 24? If you want to make a legit trade, it starts with Ryan and includes one of the Twins SS prospects (Lee/Lewis) and maybe another flyer type prospect. I would still do it, but to think the Brewers or any other team is going to give away a top tier pitcher with 2 years of control for scraps isn't happening.

I disagree that is what this Front Office is doing, sure there are plenty of fans with further prospects on their mind philosophy (You can see it all over this site, reading some comments the Twins minor league is full of future Hall of Famer players) This Front Office has been kind of stuck in the middle, they have traded some pretty good "prospects" for pitching, while waiting for the first wave of injured pitching to get good and healthy, they have tried bringing up prospects and they haven't lived up to expectations or they also go hurt. Sure they haven't signed a top pitching, but it does take two to tango and it seems most top pitchers don't want to be here. But to say they went just about all in the last few years isn't giving them enough credit and dis-credits how bad they have been at going all in (mostly injuries but still)

I like the thought behind this, but I think you are over estimating the value of Farmer and Kepler. To get most of those players the Twins would have to add prospects, IMO.

Plus generally they are much cheaper

You must not been around here, because him, Gonsalves, Jay, Mejia, Stewart and Jorge were going to solve all the Twins starting pitching problems. Along with Chargois, Burdi, Hildenberger, Wells , Baxendale and Thorpe. The Twins future was VERY, VERY Bright. Nobody even knew how the Twins would get playing time for two future all stars at SS Gordon and Wander, The twins had so much power in the minors it was silly, Diaz, Palka, Walker, and speed with Wade, Granite, Baddo, plus Garver and Rortvedt as future catchers.

Just an FYI, he turns 20 in 5 days.

Austin Martin will be 26 at the start of the 25 season, I will go out on a limb and say zero chance he is still a prospect by that time. Either he will be a Major utility guy or better or AAAA player for the rest of his career. Lee will be 24 going into 25 and if he is still a prospect then, he will have suffered a major injury or has fallen flat on his face, you can't have been AA at age 21 and then spend the next two years if healthy trying to compete in the minors and be considered a prospect. I think both of these guys will be knocking on the door this year and in Lee's case maybe pounding at the door.

If ERod hasn't made it to the Twins by 25, one of two things have happened, bad injury, or he is wildly overrated now. I think the other 4 are pretty good choices with the #5 pick rounding out the top 5.

I hear what you are saying, and I totally get the concept, but I was replying to "this is what smart teams do", and I have looked and haven't seen many teams buying out guys into their early 30's, they generally do it when a guy comes up really young, and want to keep him though his prime years 26-30 at a reduced cost. My thoughts on this is the same when it was brought up for Ryan, I wouldn't do it, they already have these guys on the cheap for their prime. Only a few players debut at these ages and end up being one of the highest paid players at their position.

Are there teams that have extended a 24 year old with very limited experience and twice had ACL surgery? I have been looking for extensions for "young players" and haven't seen many at age 24 let alone his injury history. I am sure I have missed players, anybody have a list?

I have been saying on many threads a bunch of the Twins "prospects" are on the older side, unproven side, or unhealthy side. So a front office that believes, relies, and empathizes data is going to throw that historical data aside to run out a lineup full up mid 20 prospects that are unproven and/or unable to stay injury free is frankly crazy talk or maybe not crazy talk but using emotions instead of logic and data. Imagine for a second they threw caution to the wind and started the year with Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, AK, Polanco, Correa and Miranda. and a couple of guys get hurt and or a couple tank or are just terrible, who do they go to the next wave of guys that are 24 and still in the minors? I am not a fan Gallo but he is the type of guy that can get hot an carry a team, but he is also a guy that could easily get benched if things are not going well and give somebody else a chance, guessing the same with Salano but to be honest never heard of this guy. This is huge year for a bunch of Twins "prospects"

Miranda turns 25 in June, AK just turned 25, Larnach turns 26 in 4 days, Gordon will play the season at 27, Wallner just turned 25, Julien turns 24 in April, Martin turns 24 next month, Lewis turns 24 in June, Lee just turned 22. So I agree the Twins have multiple years of control of these guys, only Lee is young, the others aren't old but generally players this age with little or no experience aren't blocking younger players with more potential. I see Kepler gone after this year unless his is amazing, And I don't see the Club picking up Polanco in 25, so if he isn't back to himself this year and somebody else picks it up he could be moved to the bench. Wallner, AK and Larnach this seems like their last big chance if their play doesn't demand playing time this year, there really is no reason to keep guys this age around. So could there be trades? yes, best case scenario so many play well that they are able to flip a couple for pitcher and a prospect or two. Worst case guys like Martin, Wallner, Larnach, AK don't play great and they will have little to no trade value. I really, really hope for the best case.

💯 - I think he has a chance to be a good relief pitcher, but have to agree there were questions marks going into 22 and there are more going into 23.

Great write up, if salary isn't taken into consideration, I think Stanton is proven, and Miranda is just hope at this point. Who in real life would I want, Miranda because of the cost, but if the Yanks offered Stanton straight up for Miranda and pick up all the cost on Stanton, I am taking Stanton.

Buxton was 21 when he was first called up and his minor league stats are .301 average, OBP of .376 and SLG .507. These two players are nothing like each other, at 24 Martin doesn't have the time to come in the league and hit like Buxton did, if he does his career will be real, real short.

Martin turns 24 on March 23, which is already getting old for a prospects. IMO if he isn't amazing this year and force his way to the big leagues, he probably will just be another prospect that failed to live up to expectations. (Because he probably be passed by other prospects) I believe he can and will become a good major league player for years, but I don't see him becoming an everyday starting player because I belief the next prospects with more upside will slide him out. See Nick Gordon.

Ober will be 28 in July, there is ZERO reason for him to be in the minors, if he isn't good enough to make the opening day roster this year, how can you expect him to be part of the rotation going forward. If I was in charge of this team, I would be go with a 6 man rotation for a couple of starts and tell Ryan, Ober and Maeda, prove to me your deserve one of the top spots, and the other guy would go to to pen.

Lewis (who I give a little break based on his injuries but if he isn't good enough to force his way to the majors this year, well...) turns 24 on June 5, Martin on March 23, and Julien April 30th, Wallner just turned 25, and Helman turns 27 may 23rd. None of these guys can afford another year in the minors if they ever want to be regular starter in the majors. I am not saying they can't be good major league players, guys that can't get to the majors until they are 25 end up with careers like Nick Gordon 27 a utility player or starting for a rebuilding team, sure there are the McNeils, Doziers, Merrifield and but they are few and far between. Lee just turned 22 so he is the one guy that could spend the whole year in the minors and still end up really good, but he better be damn good.