RpR

Yesterday was a rough day for me. I have been fighting cancer for 5 years and this spring it had metastasized. I continue to fight every day. Up at 4:30 to do my stretch, strength and balance work followed by a 5 mile run. With that fight I feel pretty good and have a high energy level in spite of all the meds. Baseball helps keep me going. There are still many more games ahead of me and they matter so much more than a championship. That final Twins trade of Varland set off a trigger in me. We had Varland through 2030. While at a large family gathering as the news kept rolling that 2030 hit hard. The odds are against me that I will be around in 2030. Thinking of the Twins led me to thinking of my first grandchild due in January. I can handle missing the next championship but I got pretty choked at the thought of what I will miss with my granddaughter.
Byron, Ryan, Kody, Royce, Matt, Trevor, Brooks, Christian, DeShawn, Joe, Pablo, Bailey, Simeon, David, Zebby, Cole and Justin I appreciate your fight. No one can make it to the major leagues without fighting everyday. You have fought through slumps. You have fought through injury. We will need your fight more than ever now. To the rest putting on that Twins uniform. I appreciate you. You have fought hard for this opportunity. Use this opportunity to make your mark in the major leagues. Fight to get better every day.
Mr. Falvey and Mr. Baldelli I need you to put up a fight. Make every day matter. Make every game matter. I am counting on you. To the Pohlad’s, you have stopped fighting. This is a concept that I can’t grasp. Every day I wake up excited to take on the day and fight for the next. You wake up every day as owners of a Major League Baseball team. How can you not be driven to fight for their success? I don’t get it. I do appreciate what Carl did for this franchise and what your family did for the community but you have stopped fighting. Please step aside and let someone else lead this franchise.
We need a fighter because every day and every game matters. I will be watching.

We're heading toward the trade deadline and things are not going well, to put it mildly.  Where does everyone think we'll be on August 1 and how will we get there? My view is that we should be playing for 2026 and beyond at this point. The current iteration of this team is unlikely to make the playoffs and very unlikely to do anything if they sneak into the postseason. We're also not trading for an impact vet with the team up for sale. I say we pivot to see what we have by trading vets for prospects and giving opportunity to others. Here are the steps:
Trade for Prospects - Castro, Paddack, Bader, Coulombe, and France. The return won't be great except maybe for the first two, but none of these guys are part of the 2026 team. I would try to re-sign Castro but I don't think he'll sign on the cusp of free agency and it's hard to commit to future payroll with the team up for sale. All of the trades are for prospects and I want as much quality as possible so I trade for better guys farther away if we can. None of the prospects we get are on the MLB roster until at least 2026. You could also substitute Stewart for Coulombe but we need to keep one and trade one. 
DFA/Use as Trade Add-Ons - Clemens, Wentz, Vasquez, Keirsey (or send him back to AAA). I don't think any team will want these guys but who knows, they might go as part of a package with one of the guys above. Catching is always hard to find so maybe some one will a want or need a catcher badly enough to give up something for Vasquez? Ahhh, probably not.  
Players back from Il - Matthews, Keaschall. Both are supposed to return in July so I assume they will do so, have their rehab at AAA and be back with the Twins. 
Up From AAA - Noah Cardenas (C), Travis Adams (RP/long man), Austin Martin (OF), Emmanuel Rodriguez (CF), Anthony Prato (UTL), Pierson Ohl (RP). This is pretty much all we got at AAA. Miranda isn't hitting at all, Fitzgerald is 31 and not in our long term plans, and we saw what the team thinks of McCusker.  I added Emma because he plays CF but could see McCusker with Martin the backup CF. It's not great if Buxton goes done but we're totally screwed for the year if Buxton goes down any way.  I thought about Eeles for the UTL spot but went with Prato because he plays SS and Eeles doesn't. Besides Prato just turned 27 and if he's going to make the Show, now is the time. Eeles is only 25 and just came back from injury. 
Lineup on August 1 going forward:
Keaschall - 1B
Buxton - CF
Larnach or Wallner - RF/LF/DH 
Lewis - 3B
Correa - SS
Lee - 2B
Wallner or Larnach -  RF/DH
Jeffers or Cardenas - C
Martin/Rodriguez - DH/OF 
Bench (all play 2-3 days a week) - Julien (1B/2B), Jeffers/Cardenas (C), Martin/Rodriguez (OF), Prato (SS/3B).
Starting Pitchers:
Ryan
Ober
Matthews
Festa
SWR
Lopez takes over for whoever is injured or not performing when he comes back. If all are healthy and performing, low man goes to the bullpen. 
Bullpen:
Duran (closer)
Jax (high leverage/8th inning)
Varland (high leverage/7th inning)
Topa
Stewart
Adams
Sands
Ohl
Funderburk
Is this a great roster? Nope. Is this as good or maybe better than what we have now? maybe. Does this have a better chance of setting us up for 20026 and beyond while hopefully replenishing the farm? Absolutely. Let's find out what we got. This is the way to do it, IMHO.
What do you guys think?  
 

Byron Buxton is transforming back to the young Byron Buxton. Yeah, he's only hitting .215 with an OBP of .261 and two walks, but when on base, it's more than likely that he'll come around and score. He's been on base 20 times this season and has scored 15 runs, which is a (75%) clip.
The Twins' offense has gained a dynamic edge with Byron Buxton's increased aggressiveness on the basepaths. His ability to pick up extra bases often feels like a guaranteed run, a dimension unseen by fans in recent memory. However, this exhilarating style has unfortunately led to knee injuries and soreness. The team currently faces a balancing act, needing Buck's presence on the bases for the high probability of scoring.

Hello, fellow humans! My name is William Malone IV. Son of William Malone III. And I come with great news! The baseball season has finally arrived. These games count, and it is glorious.
A new season comes with new player. The Minnesota Twins have added wonderful players such as Harrison Bader and Ty France. They both impressed in their regular season debuts for the team, although in a losing effort. Sadly, roster space is not unlimited. New players means you need to say goodbye to others. Which can be sad.
The great Max Kepler went 1-for-3 with a double and two walks in his debut with the Philadelphia Phillies. A fantastic performance, helping fuel them to a 7-3 win against the Washington Nationals. This should come as no surprise to fans of the Twins, for they saw Kepler unleash countless games of brilliance during his time in the Twin Cities. This includes 11 walk-off plate appearances, which ties him with Harmon Killebrew and Kirby Puckett for the most in club history.
The amazing ability for Kepler to perform in the clutch went well beyond walk-off hits. Even in some of the games where he delivered a walk-off, Minnesota only found themselves in that position because Kepler had put the team on his back earlier. Let’s take a look at some of these unbelievable outings by our favorite German outfielder.
June 18, 2019 - Some might call this one of the greatest bench performances in Twins history! Max Kepler did not start on June 18, 2019 against the Boston Red Sox. But he certainly finished, delivering a walk-off single in the 17th inning.
It seemed like this marathon game was only destined to go 13 innings. Mookie Betts hit a go-ahead home run in the top of the 13th. But a game is never over when you have Kepler on your team! He came off the bench, and tied things up with a solo home run of his own. This helped extend the game, eventually leading to the 17th inning walk-off heroics.
September 22, 2020 - All of the desperate Twins haters were celebrating in late-September of 2020. It seems like Minnesota was not going to defend their AL Central crown. They trailed the Chicago White Sox in a tight division race. But these haters did not account for the brilliance of Max Kepler, and his ability to put a team on his back in a playoff race.
Kepler hit a walk-off single against the Detroit Tigers on September 22, 2020. But this never would have happened if he didn’t hit a game tying home run in the eighth inning.
June 14, 2024 vs Oakland Athletics - Fans of the Twins might remember that Max Kepler had a walk-off single against the Oakland Athletics on June 14, 2024. They were foolish to intentionally walk Carlos Correa with Mr. Clutch himself in the on-deck circle. But what you might forget is the three run homer Kepler launched in the sixth inning.
Minnesota was trailing 4-1 after five innings. Athletics manager Mark Kotsay, known for his long leash with starting pitchers, could’ve called it a day for rookie right hander Mitch Spence. But they left him in, and Kepler took advantage of this disastrous mistake. He wound up hitting a three run homer against Spence in the sixth inning, tying the game at four.

Hello, fellow humans! My name is William Malone IV. Son of William Malone III. And I come with great news! Opening Day for Major League Baseball is only a week away.
Granted, the Minnesota Twins will not be playing a week from today. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs will be opening the season in Japan. Even without the mighty Twins, it is still a most exciting time for baseball fans everywhere.
A new season comes with hope! Many of the 30 teams will be awesome! Many of the 30 teams will stink. And many of them will be in some middle ground between awesome and stink. Does anyone remember the 2019 Twins? That team was awesome, even if the playoffs brought much sadness to the Land of Many Lakes. They set the world record for big dingers hit over the fence that season. The whole thing was quite exciting to watch.
This team became known as the "Bomba Squad." But what happened to the wonderful humans who made up this record breaking offense? Let's take a look, while also ranking them by their bWAR following the 2019 campaign. Remember my friends, if you disagree with these rankings then you must take it up with Baseball Reference and their judgement of bWAR. Don't be calling your ole pal William Malone IV a big stupid dum dum in the comments because you don't like where your favorite Bomba Squad player is ranked.
1. Byron Buxton (15.0 bWAR after 2019)
Injuries continue to be the story for Buxton, who wasn't healthy enough to play alongside the Bomba Squad in the 2019 postseason. He did get some down ballot MVP votes in 2020, and was an All-Star in 2022. But there's still another level that Twins fans would love to see him reach.
2. Luis Arraez (14.4 bWAR after 2019)
There are some holes in his game. This is why Arraez seems to bounce around the league a bit. But you still can't argue with three batting titles. That's why Luis Arraez is towards the top of these rankings.
3. Jorge Polanco (11.1 bWAR after 2019)
The Twins got a lot of good baseball out of Polanco for the first few years after 2019, but injuries and a rising core of infield prospects eventually saw him traded following their 2023 division title. Polanco hit a career best 33 home runs in 2021.
4. Max Kepler (9.1 bWAR after 2019)
There have been some bad stretches for Kepler since 2019, but this has come with good runs as well. His OPS+ of 124 in 2023 actually matched his 2019 clip, although the juiced baseball beefing up everyone's number league wide in 2019 mean Kepler's raw stats were better in the Bomba Squad season. As always, Kepler has provided solid defense.
5. LaMonte Wade (6.0 bWAR after 2019)
The Twins lost Wade in a very forgettable trade. He's turned himself into a respectable player with the Giants, although maybe a bit limited. Wade has a .564 career OPS against left handed pitching, and is one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball. He's a bit better when playing first base, but not much better. None the less, he's still a hell of a lot better than Shaun Anderson even with these limitations.
6. C.J. Cron (5.3 bWAR after 2019)
Cron was an All-Star for the Colorado Rockies in 2023, and his 2022 season was statically better. But you might be able to chalk this success up to the Coors Field effect. After a poor 2023, he didn't play professional baseball at any level last year.
7. Mitch Garver (4.4 bWAR after 2019)
There has been a lot of good and bad for Garver since 2019. His 2020 season was about as bad it could get for a player, as he became almost unplayable. But weird circumstances for the COVID season can make you look past that. Injuries have limited him to just 80 games per season since the start of 2021, and he now plays more DH than catcher.
8. Nelson Cruz (4.1 bWAR after 2019)
Cruz continued to be awesome after 2019, winning a Silver Slugger in 2020 and making the All-Star team in 2021. He was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays at the deadline in 2021, and it would appear Minnesota moved on at the exact right moment. Cruz was bad in the second half of 2021, and never found his form again after that. Father Time is undefeated.
9. Jonathan Schoop (2.7 bWAR after 2019)
He played pretty well for the Detroit Tigers in 2020 and 2021, owning a 110 OPS+ across those two seasons. This was a slight improvement over the 102 he posted during the 2019 season in Minnesota. But then he began to decline a bit in 2022 and 2023. Schoop is currently playing professionally in Mexico.
t10. Marwin Gonzalez (0.2 bWAR after 2019)
Gonzalez played three seasons after 2019, helping three different teams make the playoffs while playing his familiar utility role. The first came with the Twins in 2020. He then played for the Astros in 2021 and the Yankees in 2022. The stats don't jump off the page, but you also can't put a price on veteran leadership off the bench.
t10. Jason Castro (0.2 bWAR after 2019)
An underlying story of the Bomba Squad was that Minnesota set the record for home runs by catchers that season. While a lot of that was Silver Slugger winning Mitch Garver doing his thing, Castro still hit 13 of his own. After leaving the Twins, he bounced around a bit as a backup catcher. Castro got a World Series ring with the Astros in 2022.
t10. Ronald Torreyes (0.2 bWAR after 2019)
One memorable moment for the Twins in 2019 was Ronald Torreyes winning a game for them by drawing a walk-off hit by pitch. He was a career Quad-A guy who played 115 games for parts of two seasons with the Phillies after 2019.
t13. Miguel Sano (0.0 bWAR after 2019)
Getting Sano back to an even 0.0 bWAR since 2019 is carried by a solid 2021 season in which he hit 30 home runs with a decent walk rate. Everything around that was a display of very bad baseball for the inconsistent slugger.
t13. Ryan LaMarre (0.0 bWAR after 2019)
This was only a nine game sample with the Yankees in 2021, so it was really hard to move the WAR needle in either direction. LaMarre did hit two home runs in that short nine game stint, but those two homers were part of a 4-for-24 (.190) showing at the plate.
t13. Ian Miller (0.0 bWAR after 2019)
His sample size was even smaller than LaMarre. Miller only appeared in one game after 2019. It was a pinch running appearance for the Cubs in 2020. He did not come to bat, he did not play the field.
16. Ehire Adrianza (-0.2 bWAR after 2019)
The post-Twins highlight for Adrianza was winning the 2021 World Series as a member of the Braves. He went 1-for-10 (.100) in that postseason, and never played the field. Those were ten pinch hitting appearances. Keep in mind, this was back when the NL still had pitchers batting. That's how he got so many pinch hitting attempts over such a small sample.
17. Jake Cave (-0.9 bWAR after 2019)
For all the complaints that Jake Cave played too much, he found even more playing time after leaving the Twins. He was on the Phillies Opening Day and playoff rosters in 2023, and then played a career high 123 games for the Colorado Rockies in 2024. But his numbers still weren't any better from his time in Minnesota, and he's now playing in Korea.
18. Eddie Rosario (-1.1 bWAR after 2019)
Winning NLCS MVP in 2021 is a great accomplishment, but that was really just a flash in the pan for what has been a rapid drop off. Rosario has an 87 OPS+ and -5 defensive runs saved since 2019 concluded. He didn't even play that well in the 2021 World Series after his NLCS MVP performance, going 5-for-22 (.227) with no RBI.
19. Willians Astuillo (-1.4 bWAR after 2019)
It's honestly incredible to accumulate -1.4 bWAR over such a small sample. He only played 101 big league games after the 2019 season. The guy just wasn't good at playing baseball. At least Eddie Rosario got his negative bWAR number over a 481 game run.
DNQ. Tyler Austin (DNP in MLB after 2019)
2019 was the end of the road for Tyler Austin, in terms of his Major League career. He still plays professionally in Japan, and won a silver medal with Team USA at the Tokyo Olympics.

A team like the Twins needs to always be internally theorizing moves at every level in every situation. Twins cannot simply just buy talent on the open market. They must try and leverage situations when situations arise.  Could such a situation have just arrived in New York?
Gerrit Cole has a barking elbow. An elbow that more and more are believing to be potentially season ending. Of course we need to wait and see exactly what the tests reveal. That is a huge blow to a team that has a mandate of winning every year. year in and year out. There are other pitching concerns as well.  Luis Gil, the reigning AL ROY will be starting the season on the IL and will miss a few months. This leaves the Yankees with the following potential rotation.
* Max Fried. a legit starter, they are good here
* Carlos Rodon. Has the potential to flash ACE stuff, but inconsistent and has his own injury history. Can they rely on him? Rodon has not put back to back full seasons together since breaking into the league in 2015.
* Marcus Stroman. he of the "will anyone please take him off of our hands?!?!?!" ilk.  a 4.31 era last year is not HORRIBLE, he hasnt had an era above 4.00 before last year since 2018. He is still serviceable, but that is possibly his ceiling at this point? and the Yankees clearly are not sold on him.
* Clark Schmidt. He had a good bounce back season last year and a 2.85 ERA is great.  but averaging less than 5 innings per start isnt exactly an innings eater in the rotation. it makes him a good #4.
* Carlos Carrasco. I guess we have to include him here right? I mean he does have a pulse, and he is on the roster.  While I loves me some Carrasco, he is just not a season long starter
* Will Warren. a 25 year old top pitching prospect for the Yanks. while he had a bad debut last year he has some stuff and is turning heads this spring, but again unproven in New York is scary!!
With all of this in mind, just how desperate are/should the Yankees be to improve their rotation? And back to the Twins, how aggressive should they be to actually HELP the Evil Empire? And at what cost?
The Yankees would not give up major league talent, as they would be looking to contend if they are bringing pitching.  So we would be looking at the prospect market.
Next internal questions should be:
1) What is in the Yankees System we would want?
2) What would it cost to get them?
now back to the original question...
WOULD/SHOULD we move pitching to help NY?
We have perceived depth, but how much of the quality would we move for prospects?
Lombard is most likely untouchable, and Jones is intriguing.
But what if the Twins offered Pablo Lopez, a potential Ace or #2 starter in that rotation. and lets say we add a Trevor Larnach/Matt Wallner as a possible replacement for Stanton.
Lopez and Larnach/Wallner for George Lombard and/or Spencer Jones.
 
 

Hello, fellow humans! My name is William Malone IV. Son of William Malone III. And I come with great news! The Minnesota Twins will be playing a spring training baseball game against the Atlanta Braves tomorrow.
What an exciting time of year this is. And the best way to celebrate these exciting times are with some bold(ish) predictions for the 2025 season.
1. Griffin Jax strikes out triple digits
The Twins haven't had a primary relief pitcher strike out 100 or more batters in a single season since Juan Rincón fanned 106 in 2004. In the years since, nobody has come closer than Jax did in 2024. The Air Force product struck out 95 opponents over 71.0 innings pitched last season, and it's possible that the Twins position in the standings cost him the opportunity to reach the 100 strikeout milestone. With the playoffs out of reach, Rocco Baldelli opted out not use Jax in their final three game series of the regular season. It was well earned rest for Jax, who has logged the fifth most relief innings in the Majors since the start of 2022.
2. The Twins steal 100 bases for the first time since 2012
100 is a nice round number, so we'll make it a bit of a theme. This sounds like a big leap coming off a year where the Twins only stole 65 bases, but they have the pieces to pull this off. Minnesota didn't lose much speed over the off-season. Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot collectively stole nine bases in 548 games last year. Players like Austin Martin (7 SB in 93 G), Brooks Lee (3 SB in 50 G) and Edouard Julien (6 SB in 94 G) can help add to the total simply by taking away extra at-bats from some of those departed players. Harrison Bader also stole 17 bases for the New York Mets last year. For this to be even possible, Willi Castro would need to get back to his 2023 form where he stole 33 bases. The utility man swiped just 14 bags in 2024.
3. Joe Ryan is an All-Star
Joe Ryan was pitching so well before a shoulder strain in August ended his season seven weeks early. He had the fourth best strikeout-to-walk ratio and eight lowest WHIP among pitchers who started at least 20 games last season. The tools are very clearly in place. As is the case with several players on the Twins, he just needs to be healthy and on the field to earn the accolades. 
4. Carlos Correa wins the Silver Slugger
Maybe this goes under the radar a bit, but Carlos Correa has the fifth highest OPS among shortstops since joining the Twins in 2022. And that's with a lackluster 2023 season dragging his numbers down a bit. The man produces at the plate. He just needs to be healthy enough to get the necessary at-bats. 2024 seemed like it was poised to be a career year. Correa had a .900 OPS for the first time since the ultra juiced ball year of 2019, but his foot injuries resurfaced and he didn't play at all between July 12th and September 14th. He wasn't putting up empty stats either. Correa hit .314 in high leverage situations, according to Baseball Reference.
5. Max Kepler has a solid year in his new home
The bar for "solid year" will be different for everyone, but the prediction here is that Kepler adjusts to post-Twins life better than several other Bomba Squad-era teammates who have since been castoff. Kepler is going to a really good hitters park where he'll have a lot of protection up and down the lineup, and he's also been better than some of these other pieces in recent years. What Eddie Rosario did in the 2021 NLCS was fun to watch, but he still has an 83 OPS+ with -8 defensive runs saved since leaving Minnesota. Kepler's career low for OPS+ in a single season is only 91. Mitch Garver is another Bomba Squad player who went off and won a World Series with a new team, but there's only so much value you bring as a DH and occasional fill-in piece at catcher. The other players to look at from that core are Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano, who have done even less than the previously mentioned players.
6. Ty France does not make Twins opening day roster, Jose Miranda starts at first base
Ty France has a non-guaranteed contract, so the Twins would be able to release him at the end of camp for no money lost. The only thing it would've cost them is a 40-man placeholder for six or seven weeks. Minnesota had a similar arrangement with Anibal Sanchez in 2018. He signed a Major League contract in the off-season, but the money was only guaranteed if he made the opening day roster. Anyway, it's time for Jose Miranda to assume a full time role. He's moved around between first base, third base and designated hitter during his time with the Twins. After bouncing back from a poor showing in 2023, a strong showing in the Grapefruit League might be all Twins management needs to give him his first full time role.
7. Jorge Alcalá continues his hot and cold career
There is no denying that Jorge Alcalá has talent. Every Twins fan who has watched him knows he can be special when pitching at his best. But his whole career has been filled with these ups and downs. It's an on again, off again relationship that rivals Ross and Rachel. Last season was no different. Alcalá owned a 1.63 ERA through 35 appearances at the end of July. His ERA was 6.41 across 19 outings in August and September. His worst outing was in an August 18th loss to Texas that many point to as the beginning of the Twins late season slide. Alcalá is turning 30 in July. He's been a big leaguer since 2019. At this point, there's no reason to expect anything different. He's going to give the Twins some good stretches, and some bad ones.
8. Twins trade for Framber Valdez at the deadline
Houston doesn't bend over backwards to keep their own guys. Just look at the laundry list of core pieces they've let go; Correa, Springer, Keuchel, Morton, Tucker, Bregman, Pressly. There was even a point where they let Justin Verlander sign with the Mets, only to get him back via trade three months later. If you're not Jose Altuve, they are willing to let you walk out the door and call up their next prospect in line. For that reason, a 31-year old Framber Valdez might be available as a rental. Especially if the Astros can't withstand losing Tucker, Bregman and Pressly all in one off-season. This just might be a re-set year for the organization as they wait for their next wave of prospects.
9. Chris Paddack gives Twins 20-25 solid starts
It's impossible to bank on Chris Paddack for a full 30+ start season with his injury history, but he can still be a solid fifth starter option. Think about the role Kenta Maeda played for the Twins in 2023; 20 starts with a 4.23 ERA. Maybe Paddack won't be quite that good, but Minnesota would sign up for anything close to that. And the 2023 Twins probably didn't have as much starter depth behind Maeda to supplement the time he was down. That was a team who was running Dallas Keuchel out there at points. Fans probably feel better about the Woods-Richardson, Festa, Matthews trio of depth than the shell of Dallas Keuchel. 
10. The Twins win 95 games and take the AL Central
Minnesota was on a 92 win pace as late as August 17th last year, and then the season went off the rails. It's always easy to blame pitching for a collapse like that, and the Twins certainly had problems with their staff. Joe Ryan was hurt, their trio of rookie starters all seemed to hit a wall, and the bullpen was falling apart. But despite all that, the bats were still a bigger issue down the stretch. From August 18th onward, the Twins scored just 137 runs. Only the White Sox and Nationals scored less over that span. In short, everything went wrong over those final 38 games. But sometimes, you need to trust bigger samples. Believe in what you saw for 124 games. Not 38. Even without doing much this off-season, Minnesota is still a very good ball club.

The Twins have a knack for developing pretty deep lineups 1-9 in terms of how the bottom third of our lineups typically stack up way better than the rest of the league at these spots.  That and a deep productive bench is how we have managed to stay above average on offense for the last few years.  This season, however, there is a potential wrench in this deal.  Our new 1B is in a 2-year slump and could play himself off the roster before the season begins and Julien had an awful sophomore slump season.  Luckily, we do have depth to replace them if we don’t wait too long with Castro or Lee at 2B and Miranda going to 1B and bring up E Rod or Keaschal to start somewhere in the lineup. But if France and either Lee or Julien can be average to above average hitters then the Twins can have an above average offense again. Though not as good because our bench is not as offense oriented as in the recent past. (great defensively though) Back to 1B and 2B, If France can hit .250 with 25 doubles and 10/15 HRs with 60-70 RBI and Julien swings at more pitches and hits better with 15-20 HRs 10-15 Stolen bases and .340 OBP with 60-70 RBI our offense continues to hum along.  Lee could sub for Julien and hit .270 with 25 doubles and 10-15 HRs and 60-70 RBI and again we are good.  Last season the Twins were 4th in the league in runs scored despite their top RBI guy only getting 71 RBIs.  That is a testament to how effective a deep offense can be during the season. To include the other solid hitters we have include Jeffers, Miranda, Castro, Larnarch, and the elite Correa, Buxton, Wallner, and Lewis.  that is 8 solid hitters with Emmanual Rodriguez and Luke Keaschal not far away from coming up wither. That is a pretty deep collection of solid production.  
Here is the other part of the coin for the Twins.  Elite offense and Health.  The Twins have several elite offensive players: Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Wallner who could all drive-in 90+ runs for the year and raise the level of our offense to a new level.  But none of these 4 guys have played and received 500 ABs in a season the last few years.  Only Correa did that and he is not consistent with that either. IF these 4 guys can stay healthy and productive that would be a boon for the Twins.
The best of both worlds.  If France and either Lee or Julien work out and Correa, Buxton, Lewis, and Wallner play in all of the games they should.  We could have a top 3 offense in the league.  But that has been the case for the last 2 or 3 years.  The past says it won’t happen but hope springs eternal in spring.  I would like to believe that for one we can have at least 3 of our elite offensive players be elite the entire season and France and whoever is at 2nd be adequate to give us that offensive edge.  This would be the year to do it with how stacked our pitched and pitching depth is going into this year. 

As we have recently crossed the halfway point of the 2024 season, my next two posts will be taking a look at our most (and least) valuable players by win probability added (or subtracted). We will also take a look at some signature moments that led to this WPA. As with any stat, WPA is not perfect. It’s not predictive, and doesn’t really measure skill level. However, it’s a great shorthand to evaluate players relative value to the team through their performance when it matters most. To oversimplify things greatly, being worth .5 WPA is roughly equivalent to a win. Read on to see if there are any surprises!
We will begin by looking at the five least valuable players of the first half. Nothing here surprised me based on the eye test, or looking at their WAR. Without further ado, we will start with the player who has helped the team the least so far this season. 
Christian Vazquez - C - (-1.75 WPA) 
Vasquez has not been good, by any measuring tool. He’s been the worst hitter by WAR, and it’s not close. In fact, his OPS+ has been historically bad. Think Drew Butera territory, then lose another 50 points of OPS and you are in the ball park. Somewhat interestingly, he hasn’t even really had any individual good games. His best single game increased the team’s chances to win by just 11%. Most of his games have been negative. To compound things, he has come up to bat in some key moments. Spoiler: he generally has not come through. And, by WPA, he has cost the team three and a half wins so far. 
 
Steven Okert - RP (-.78 WPA)
Okert hasn’t been great, but he also has been very un-clutch. So far this season, in limited action, he has had four bad games. The worst was on 5/6, when he decreased their chances to win by 44% - almost an entire loss on his shoulders. Okert came into the game against the Mariners with the Twins up 4-2 and the bases loaded. It began as Jay Jackson’s mess, but Okert immediately gave up a grand slam and the Twins went on to lose.
 
Louis Varland - SP (-.76 WPA)
It’s telling that despite Varland’s last two spot starts being solid or better, he is still very negative in WPA on the season. His first starts of April prior to his demotion were just that bad. Consider the following: in three of his four April starts, he cost the team at least a 25% likelihood to win the game. The worst was on 4/15 against the Orioles, when his WPA was -.34 due to allowing 11 hits, 2 HR, and 4 runs over 5 innings. Tough to win against a good team in that situation. Of course, he was demoted immediately following this start, and may be figuring out his form again after his stint at STP.
 
Kyle Farmer - IF (-.66 WPA)
Team leader? Yes. Versatile? Sure. A good hitter? Maybe not any more. Similar to Vazquez, the problem is he just hasn’t had many good games to balance the bad ones. His worst, in limited action, was on 4/13 against the Tigers. While the Twins won, it was no thanks to Farmer’s performance. He struck out with the bases loaded in the top of the 12th inning. Luckily, the rest of the team showed up to batting practice and the Twins scored 7 runs in the 12th for the win. His playing time has slumped along with his performance, and the end may be near for him.
 
Manny Margot - OF (-.63 WPA)        
Yes, Manny Margot has been much better for the past month. However, it will take him a couple more months at this level just to reach a neutral WPA. He was just that bad for April and May. Funnily enough, his worst game was the same as Farmer’s. He went 0-fer and left runners on base multiple times.
Stay tuned for tomorrow, and the recap of our top-5 WPA leaders in the first half.
What do you think? Did any of these players surprise you? Will any of the bottom performers turn it around in the second half? Comment below to start the discussion!     

Face it folks:  your 2024 Minnesota Twins are not good.

As of the time of this writing, they are 17-2 vs CHW, COL, LAA, OAK.  These are 4 of the 5 worst teams in baseball.  They are 25-33 against everyone else.

In MLB, they are 10th in runs scored, but 22nd in ERA.

Thank you ownership for taking a WS contending team and intentionally making them worse.
Thank you for taking the TV money and not reinvesting it back in the team.
Thank you for not allowing the FO to go out and getting a quality SP or two to replace the ones that left.
Thank you for not ensuring your fans get to watch their team on television this year by building in a solid out clause.

The articles of who the Twins should trade for need to stop.  No trade is coming that will increase payroll or move a top 10 prospect.

As a lifelong Twins fan, I am utterly disgusted with this year.  You should be too.

Last night’s game at Rickwood reminded of two impactful Twin minor leaguers that never got their chance in the majors. 
Chuck Weatherspoon and Ollie Brantley were cited by Rod Carew in his book as being a great help getting through the minors. Both started out in the negro leagues in the 50s. Brantley played for the Memphis Red Sox and Weatherspoon played for the Twin Cities Colored Giants. Both were in the Twins system for years playing and mentoring several future Twins including Rod Carew, Jim Kaat, Zoilo Versalles, Tony Oliva, Cesar Tovar, Bert Blyleven and Tom Hall.
In 1961 Chuck Weatherspoon hit a record 7 grand slams for the Wilson Tobbs besting Jim Gentile’s 5 grand slams in the majors. He played in the minor leagues with the Senators/Twins from 1957 to 1969. He hit 230 home runs in his minor league career. Above is a photo from a 1961 Home Run Derby in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Roger Maris, Weatherspoon, Clyde King, Gentile, Jack McKeon and Harmon Killebrew. McKeon was manager for Wilson after recently finishing his minor league career as a catcher. 

Ollie Brantley played for the Twins organization from 1962-1969. In his best season he was 15-8 with a 1.63 ERA playing for Orlando. Rod Carew was on that team that went 77-57. After his seasons with the Memphis Red Sox he played 17 seasons in the minors. Tom Hall credits him with his development. Ollie Brantley tells his story. 
More on Ollie Brantley 
More on Chuck Weatherspoon

I am not sure if there is anything serious with the Kepler injury, but now is the time to make a move.
The Twins schedule has them playing NOBODY over .500 until after the Allstar break!! Now is the time to call up Wallner and Lee, let them continue their string recent offensive surges against AAAA competition to build confidence for the second half.
DFA Farmer, there really is ZERO reason he is still on this club!!  I have hear the veteran presence in clubhouse thing, but we still have Correa, we still have Santana, while he hasnt enjoyed great success we still have Buxton, and who cares about veteran presence with young leadership skills of Lewis. He needs to be gone. plug Brooks Lee into 2B. Use Castro as the super utility guy.
While Kepler hasn't been HORRIBLE, he is obviously no longer a part of our long term future. Best case is he has a minor neck tweak that a IL stint coudl help, this would allow us to bring up Wallner for lightning in a bottle. If he continues hot streak then RF is his, if he flounders then we can go back to Kepler on his return.
While Wallner is tearing it up, he is still striking out about 1/3 of his AB's. against AAA pitching, so if he comes up and continues with the high level K's (and dosent bring power along with it) then as mentioned after DL stint you go back to Kepler.
 
But if ...  IF... Wallner and Lee can bring their potential, and you put them in a lineup with Correa, Lewis,  the resurgent Miranda (.284 avg  & .844 over last 30 games) and the coming around Santana (.305 avg & .920 OPS over last 30 games) now we have a pretty potent lineup.

Alright folks, today we are going to talk about the 1982 Topps and Topps Traded baseball card sets. Some of you who have been following my blog series may wonder, why did he skip 1981. The reason is that I set a rule for myself and said if I do not have all Twins cards in a particular set, I would not write about it until I complete that set. So, 1981 will have to wait for a future blog post. On another note, this week you’re getting the bonus of the 1982 Topps Traded set. I simply thought this small set completes the 1982 Topps package and that they should stand together.
I am fan of the 1982 Topps design. The design is the same for the standard set as well as the Traded set. The team’s name is listed near the bottom of the card with the player’s name under the team name. There are two colored stripes down the left side of the card which round the lower left corner and go partially across the bottom until they run into the team and player names. The outside line color coincides with the player’s name and the inside line is the same color as the team name. Additionally, the outside line includes the player’s position on the bottom after it rounds the corner. While I like that design, I do not like that the color seems random and unconnected to the team’s color scheme. In the case of the Twins cards, the colors are orange and brown. I would have chosen blue and red, but many other teams also have questionable color choices. Despite that critique, I still like the design.  
There are 792 cards in the 1982 Topps baseball card set including 26 Twins cards. The set has the rookie card of Cal Ripken, Jr., as well as future Twin Tom Brunansky. Ripken’s rookie is with two others and labeled as Orioles Futures Stars. The set contains a similar Twins card which we will highlight below. The Traded set has 132 cards featuring six Twins players. The pictures are almost all portrait shots of the players, but the quality of the pictures is getting a little better as years go by and in judgment these portrait shots have improved since the sets of the prior decade.
This week I was indecisive and have some ties for most obscure player and best card.
MOST OBSCURE PLAYER
My selections for the most obscure Twins players in the 1982 Topps baseball sets are Chuck Baker (#253) and Randy Johnson (#51T)
               
This is Chuck Baker’s lone Topps card as a Twin. He was a backup infielder who played only one of his three MLB seasons with the Twins. For the Twins, he had only 66 at bats and 12 hits. Noteworthy is that three of those 12 hits were triples. Baker only played an entire game nine times that season. Most of his action looks like a late game defensive replacement. Baker was drafted four times by four organizations, the first by the Twins in the 36th round of the 1971 draft but did not sign. He signed in 1975 after being drafted in the second round by the Padres. Baker came to the Twins in December of 1980 in a trade for outfield Dave Edwards.
Randy Johnson, who played only one season with the Twins (and one with the White Sox), is an obscure player who many probably don’t remember. But he has always stuck in my brain. The first year the Twins played at the Metrodome, 1982, I was young and impressionable and Johnson, a designated hitter, started scorching hot in that his age 23 season. Johnson’s great April must have been a time I was paying attention and for some reason that month was etched into my memory. Baseball Reference games logs show he hit 10 home runs in his career, all with the Twins in 1982. But more to the point, five of those home runs came in April. At the end of April, he had an exceptional slash line of .393/.449/.738. His OPS was 1.187. For many years after 1982 and before the internet, I would occasionally remember Johnson and wonder what ever happened to him. Turns out he just wasn’t very good, the Twins let him go, and he never reappeared in MLB.  He was out of minor league baseball after the 1985 season when he was only 26 years of age.
THE BEST
Alright, the best card of 1982 is an easy one for me, well easy two. It’s Kent Hrbek’s official rookie card (#766) and other rookie year card (#44T). Like probably most everyone, my favorite would be his first stand-alone card (#44T). However, that one is in the Traded set, so it’s not considered his true rookie card. The true rookie card is the #766 Future Stars card which also features long-time catcher Tim Laudner and short-time shortstop Lenny Faedo. I hope to get Hrbek’s autograph someday on the Future Stars card along with Laudner’s.


PERSONAL FAVORITE
I love the picture and stance of Butch Wynegar (#222). It’s of the style of the 1971 Roberto Clemente (which is a favorite of many collectors) and the 1972 card of Twins superstar Harmon Killebrew. Wynegar is kind of mid swing with the bat aimed at the camera. I guess I just think it’s a cool pose which is the single reason it’s my favorite Twins card in the 1982 set.

               
I think the 1982 Topps cards are a pretty good design. As a group I can say I definitely like the early 80s designs better than the late 70s. We’ll see if this trend continues.
Does anybody out there have a player to them like Randy Johnson was to me, someone who made a distinct impression upon you that made you think he was better than he actually was? Do you like the Clemente/Killebrew/Wynegar bat pose? I would appreciate any comments or opinions below. Thanks for reading.
Go Twins!

OK, first off, yes I am old school.  I HATE platooning, and what I hate even more is strictly pinch hitting RH for LH, especially young players.  How the heck is a lefty gonna learn how to hit a lefty if never given the chance???  And what makes no sense to me even MORE is pinch hitting in the 6th inning or earlier!!!
I wish there was some smart analytics guy out there who coudl run stats and prove me either right or wrong.  even if proven right I HATE managing purely by analytics.
 
But anyone who has watched the Twins can probably guess that I am talking about the obsession with pinch hitting for Wallner.
YES he is horrid against lefties, but is pinch hitting Manuel Margot for Wallner... IN THE 6TH INNING any better?  You cannot take just the current AB into account, you have to take into account future ABs.
First, why would you pinch hit Margot for Wallner? Well on the surface Margot has a .281 avg a .341 OBP and .760 OPS to go along with a 109 WRC+ against lefites.
Wallner?  oh a just touch worse at .119 avg .188 OBP and a .442 OPS to go along with an unsightly 21 WRC+.
CLEARLY pinch hitting Margot was the right decision right????  NO!!
This was the 6th inning, which means you are GUARANTEED to have Wallners spot come up again later in the game no matter what happens.(not to mention if it would go to extras) What are teh chances that Wallner would be facing another LHP in his next AB?  lets go ahead and put that one at 0.00%. Why??? Because Herrin is the ONLY LH reliever on the Cleveland roster!!!  SO now  you have to factor in the GUARANTEED matchup of either/both Margot and Wallner when facing RHP to determine the overall probable success rate.  but first let's go back to the Pinch hitting scenario in the 6th.
Wallner is pinch hit for with 2 outs and nobody on.  Now the expected Probability of scoring a run with 2 outs an nobody on is 4.48% (just did a Google).  So even if Wallner strikeouts out there, there is still a 95% probability that we would score the same amount of runs leaving Wallner in there as we would when pinch hitting Margot.  So here is the first analytic data point showing it was a HORRIBLE (yet sadly predictable) move. Now if there was a runner in scoring position, and all we needed was a single, or even extend the inning with a walk, then it could make sense, as Margot's average is 162 points higher than Wallners against lefties.  But again we did not, we needed either a HR, or multiple productive plate appearances in a row to score.  again only 4.48% scoring probability.
SO we are at neutral AT BEST for that pinch hitting situation in a vacuum, now lets take into account at least one (possibly more should the possibility of extra innings come in to play).
What are each of their numbers against RHP in their careers?
Margot = .244 avg  .294 OBP .663 OPS and a 81 WRC+.   SO not overly good.
Wallner = .274 avg  .401 OBP  .935 OPS  with a 161 WRC+.  Basically pretty darn good!!!
Of course since we would not know at the time what the situation of the next AB is (except we ae guaranteed a RHP) so we cannot say what would be needed the most, but by ANY metric, Wallner is the CLEAR preferred batter!!!
need a base hit? Wallner 30 points higher.   Need a walk? Wallner 107 points higher OBP. Need an extra base hit? Wallner 272 point higher OPS.
in actuality (which you cant take later results into consideration when making a decision, but as it turns out it would have been even MORE advantageous to have had Wallner in in the 8th).
That next AB turned out to be with Correa on 2nd and 1 out..  (as it turns out a runner on 2nd with 1 out you score at least 1 run  41.4% ot the time so you would have had a better chance to get the better probability of scoring a run with Wallner than Margot, but again that is in retrospect).
 
Bottom line... HORRIBLE move to pinch hit Manuel Margot for Wallner in the 6th inning with 2 out and nobody on against a team that has no other LHP to use against us in later innings.
 
It is not only the wrong managerial decision, but it is painfully horrible baseball to watch.
 
Now I will go back to yelling at clouds and shooing kids off my lawn.

The Twins and Dodgers have done a few trades over the past few years, including most recently the trade for Margot.  Of course the one that comes to mind that really benefitted both clubs was the Kenta Maeda trade that brought Graterol to the Dodgers.
Could/should the Twins Dodgers look to make another potential win/win trade?
Take away both teams potential needs for starting pitching.  Dodgers due to injuries, and Twins due to an unproven rotation, and there seems to be a perfect matchup here for a trade.
The Twins thought they "solved" their RH OF issue by trading for Margot, but really that was a dud from the get go. Margot was not significantly better than anyone on the Twins roster or in the Twins system.
There is another player would completely fit, and we will get to that name shortly, but first the Dodgers "need".
the Dodgers love Gavin Lux's bat, so much so that they have moved him to 2B and have moved Mookie Betts once again. This time to SS.  Now Betts very well may make the transition to SS without any issues and not risk injury or any negative impact to his offense, but do you REALLY want to risk that?? For a unproven bat, even with his potential? Plus the kid is already 26.
I would suggest that the Dodgers may be open to acquiring a SS upgrade, even if it means jettisoning Lux.   HMMMM, what team that we all know and love seems to have a middle infield glut?
I COULD say the Twins should involve Correa in a trade if the Twins truly are concerned about their finances, but who wants to have such a major shakeup of a potential contending roster this close to the start of the season? Not to mention I actually like Correa on this team.
Correa then is set at SS.
Lewis is not going anywhere, an he is set at 3B.
Julien is presumably set at 2B (or even a slide to 1B for future infield set up), and he is purely a 2B, Dodgers would  need a SS in this scenario.
That leaves Brooks Lee as a potential option to be moved. Yes, I love Lee as much as the next person, and I think he COULD be a long time Twins great. And there are options fo rhim to get AB's this year, as well as starting next year if we do move Julien to 1B, but there is a bat I love in the Dodgers system, one that fits our needs.
I say we reach out to the Dodgers, offer the Dodgers Brooks Lee in exchange for Adny Pages (plus another player such as Maddux Burns who has a high upside arm).
Pages is near MLB ready, if not MLB ready right now, the only reason he has not made debut yet, was a shoulder injury he suffered last year. which he has shown he is recovered from. The kid has massive power, the most power in the Dodgers system, he has a cannon of an arm equal to, if not better than Wallner, decent to above average speed. Most of all, he is a right handed hitting outfielder.  HE checks every box the Twins need to compliment the lineup, PLUS he is young and can be a core piece in the future, and is ready right now.
Pages would be the PERFECT platoon with Wallner in 2024, and then transition next year to an OF of Pages, Buxton, Wallner. (Walker Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez are all AT LEAST 1 year away). Both have huge power, and hit opposite pitching well. both have huge arms.
and if we get a pitcher liek Maddux Bruns as well (Dodgers #16 overall) with a big armed lefty with tons of potential (albeit control issues).
 
A trade with Dodgers centered around Lee and Pages coudl be another one of those (although tougher to swallow) win/win trades.
 
 
 
 
 

I read an article from "The Athletic" that sparked a concern of mine about the health of today's pitchers. Below is the article you can read if you have a "The Athletic" subscription.
https://theathletic.com/5325032/2024/03/08/elbow-injuries-mlb-pitchers/
My concern is besides the extra stress that today's pitchers put on their arms with extra velo & spin, they are expected to pitch the same number of innings that those pitchers of yesteryear pitched. The article stressed reducing or even eliminating the pitches that put the most stress on the pitcher's arms. But there is no way you can put the genie back in the bottle, every year there are pitchers looking to find ways to add extra velo & spin so they can make it to the MLB & excel. A normal competitive pitcher wants to complete every game when he pitches but in today's scheme of things, that's impossible. So it's management's job to limit the pitcher (which the Twins are doing a good job, yet IMO could do a little bit better) and the fanbase not complaining for more innings putting more stress on the manager & pitcher. Ober wants to pitch 200 innings, Paddack wants to pitch 150 innings & DeSclafani wants to pitch a halfway normal innings. IMO all these expectations need to be tempered way back to protect the pitcher.

This flashed by on my home page and thought some may want to read. I was caught by surprise and good for him. i'm rooting for him.
Angels All-Star Free Agent Signing Showed Up to Camp Nearly 60 Pounds Lighter (msn.com)

When Pohlad dropped a bomb saying paraphrased "We aren't going after any $30MM/ yr. FA" & " We'll live where we're at". Many fans went berserk, I'm not taking sides if the Pohlads can afford to pay the money or not because I have no idea. But I do know we live in a much lower market than NY, LA & CHI. & can't compete with those teams in spending. But is spending big in FA the answer to being successful? NYY & NYM went big in FA last offseason, how did they do? Is FA the solution to all our problems? I think not. IMO FA is an inefficient way to take care of our needs with FA salaries skyrocketing every year. I'd like to look at 3 different teams that do not go big in FA yet are very productive.
1st is Baltimore, They won the highly competitive AL East Division & are positioned to be a powerhouse for years to come. How did they do it? Much like HOU they tanked for many years & were able to get high draft picks & started to accumulate great prospects. 2nd is Tampa Bay. It's been a while since TB has had a really bad season so how have they done it? By accumulating prospects by trading off hyped players (especially SP) getting near to FA for promising young players & prospects. Another successful team that doesn't rely on FA is Atlanta. Like TB they like to trade but they trade to fortify a need & when they get a player they like to be around for a while they extend them. Can we emulate them?
With the new anti-tanking lottery this is no longer a sure bet to build a great team, plus teams like PIT & CO have tanked for years & still are floundering. Maybe build a pitching pipeline like TB & CLE, which we have tried since Favey became GM. Many of our high-ceiling prospects never panned out & Ober (started out as mid-ceiling) is the highest of any of our prospects that have risen but we haven't been able to produce a rotation full of in-house high-level  SPs every year so we can trade them to fill weak spots in the team. Maybe we can be more proactive in trading to fill our needs and extend players like ATL? It should definitely help. 
BAL, TB & ATL are all different but there are a couple of things that they do that are the same. They are great at player & team evaluation & development which separates them from their peers and make them successful year after year. These are areas that the Twins need to improve. CO has tanked for years & they like to throw money at their players but that doesn't do any good if they don't have good player & team evaluation & development. IMO stats like WAR favor sluggers, & any high-focus analytical team tends to focus on HRs & defense & baserunning are minimized. Drafting, developing, team & player evaluations are prioritized on HRs, the rest is ignored. Analytics are very important but we can't be lost in it.
We been blessed with 3 high 1st round picks that were no brainers Lewis, Lee & Jenkins. Whenever we get a low 1st round draft pick we often select a big bat cOF/1B/DH (Rooker, Sabato, Larnach, & Caveco #13 was drafted as a SS but most likely will end up at 1B). I'm frustrated with the development of Wallner who has a lot of potential but it seems that all they focus on is for him to hit HRs. I'm frustrated with the development of our catchers. This priority affects us as far as our evaluation of our team needs & players' importance to the team where we hang onto players we could let go & let go of who we should keep.
Team & player evaluation & development are very important but where ATL separates itself is that they use that evaluations to find holes in their team & then they go out & make trades that fills or upgrade in that area. We have also been fortunate with trades that fell into our laps like Lopez, Ryan, & Maeda. But once we improve our team & players evaluations of not only our team but also those teams that hold our missing pieces, I'd love to see us to be more proactive in making trades. There are so many opportunities out there once our eyes are open. The opportunities that were open early this season are pretty much closed but there'll be new opportunities & we need to be ready for them.
I heard someone praise our FO that if Pohlad allocates X amount of dollars they will spend X amount of dollars. I can see what they are saying but I also see it as something very wasteful because if the Twins had an extra $11MM they could take another unrealistic risk on a Gallo-type that had no real need just because they had the money. Dreaming about picking up this high price FA or that high price FA isn't very feasible even before this Balley mess.
The Chinese look at crises as an opportunity, these 2 words have the same root word. We have 2 choices stay the same & fall behind or change our priorities to be more realistic & to become more like ATL & become independent from free agency,  & become a better & more competitive team.

A lot has been said about the Twins’ offseason, especially regarding comments made by members of ownership and those in baseball operations about the payroll decreasing.
 Some frustration, on one hand, is warranted considering the optics that inevitably surround explicitly telling fans that payroll will decrease immediately after the most successful season in the past 20 years. However, with how the roster is constructed, spending a lot of money in free agency never seemed likely. The Twins have a lot of young talent under team control for a significant amount of time, including the likes of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Jhoan Duran just to name a few. Having that level of talent making pre-arbitration or arbitration one numbers is just naturally conducive to having a lower payroll, and it never made sense to spend for players to play positions that are already filled with those young talents. That being said, there is some room for spending during the 2024 offseason. So, let’s go back in time to November 2nd, 2023, and re-do the Twins’ Offseason.
I am going to constrain myself to some rules for this thought exercise. The first rule is that I am going to be as realistic as possible so unfortunately, Shohei Ohtani: you are not a Twin. My second rule is that for any players that have already been signed, I will be using their real-world contracts here. For example, the San Francisco Giants signed outfielder Jorge Soler to a 3-year, $42 million contract. Therefore, if I were to sign him to the Twins, it would have to be for 3 years and $42 million. This, again, is to ensure as much realism as possible for my exercise. With that out of the way, let’s get started.
1.   LHP Shōta Imanaga (4-Years, $53 Million)
     With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda both being free agents, the Twins have a need to fill in the rotation. In 2023, Sonny and Kenta contributed 6.8 fWAR to the team. Maeda’s 1.5 fWAR contribution can be replaced in-house by Chris Paddack’s full return to the rotation. FanGraphs’ projections system projects the 50th percentile outcome for Paddack’s 2024 to be worth about 2.1 fWAR. That still leaves 4.7 fWAR to be replaced. Another portion of that will be filled by the progression in the young careers of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as they (hopefully) have healthier and better seasons when they enter their 3rd full year of service time. That still leaves room to fill with an outside addition, because resigning Sonny Gray never made sense as Sonny Gray himself is unlikely to replicate his 2023 season and giving 2024 Sonny Gray 3 years and $75 million never made sense due to the very likely regression of the aging pitcher. This was made more apparent by the disparity between his expected 2023 ERA, which was calculated by Statcast using his batted ball data, falling at 3.66, and his actual 2.79 ERA. While trading for a starting pitcher with control makes the most sense, teams with starters to move like Milwaukee and Miami seem unlikely to move anyone.
     This brings us to Shōta Imanaga, the 30-year-old left-hander out of NPB’s Yokohama Baystars. The 5 '10 pitcher pitched to a 2.80 ERA in 148 IP while pitching to a 10.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in NPB action. He led World Baseball Classic pitchers in Stuff+, a measurement of the movement and velocity of pitchers. This was off the back of his 4-Seam Fastball that, while it sits in the low 90s, has nearly 20 inches of induced vertical break, meaning most batters swing under the pitch expecting it to drop more than it does. To compare, Joe Ryan’s fastball averages 17 inches of induced vertical break, helping him strike out an absurd 29.3% of his batters faced. Imanaga profiles to have a fastball with a very similar effect, while also having better control than Ryan does with his fastball. Imanaga backs up his fastball with a very versatile arsenal, common for Japanese pitchers. He also throws a sweeper, a traditional slider, a splitter, and throws in a curveball, cutter, and changeup for fun. The Japanese pitcher’s fastball-slider combo is something that the Twins have valued in their pitchers and would allow him to fit right into the Twins’ rotation. In real life, Imanaga signed with the Chicago Cubs for 4-years and $53 million with player options in 2026 and 2027 and a club option in 2028, bringing the total potential value of the deal to $80 million, something the Twins could afford, especially with the year-to-year flexibility this contract gives the player and team.
     Some would point to the Twins’ failure in previous NPB dealings such as Tsuyoshi Nishioka as a reason the Twins should be hesitant to sign NPB talent. However, pitchers transitioning from NPB to MLB have a much better track record than hitters such as Nishioka. The current Falvey-led front office is also radically different from the Terry Ryan-led regime that last gave contracts to NPB talent. Shōta Imanaga looks to be a very good starting pitcher in MLB and one that could absolutely contribute to the Minnesota Twins’ rotation.
2.   1B Rhys Hoskins (2- Years, $34 million)
     Perhaps the Twins’ biggest holes throughout the 2023 season was their weaknesses against left-handed pitching and an inability to get consistent value out of their first basemen. The Twins hit a league average 100 WRC+ against LHP compared to a 111 WRC+ against RHP, ranked 5th in MLB. While Alex Kirilloff had a good 2023, he also showcased an inability to hit left-handed pitching, and his health remains a question. After missing most of 2023, Jose Miranda also needs to reestablish himself as a viable option for the Twins. A great way to kill both of those birds would be to sign the former Phillies’ first baseman: Rhys Hoskins. Though Hoskins missed all of the 2023 season after tearing his ACL in Spring Training, he had a potent 2022 where he hit a .794 OPS (123 OPS+) with 30 home runs. Importantly, he had a .945 OPS (163 OPS+) in 174 PAs against left-handed hitting. While Hoskins’ defense is not very good, posting -6 Outs Above Average in 2022, however, 1B is the least significant defensive position. As long as whoever plays there can catch a seed from Carlos Correa, it’ll do.
     In real life, the slugger signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for two years and $34 million. The deal includes an opt-out after the first year, as well as a mutual option for a third year that would raise the total value to $48 million. A right-handed hitter was the Twins’ biggest need going into this offseason, and with that price and fit, Rhys Hoskins is likely the best option the Twins could have had.
     This is the one that gets to me personally; if Rhys had any interest in playing for the Twins with the same price and contract structure, that is a deal that the front office should absolutely have pounced on and one that the Twins could end up regretting.
3.   What I’d Keep
     The Twins did work to improve the roster in real life, and there is plenty that I would replicate in this scenario. The Twins project to have one of the strongest bullpens in all of baseball for 2024, much of which is thanks to moves made this offseason.
     In this universe, I would replicate the Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon trades, Although these two were fan favorites, they unfortunately did not have guaranteed roles on the 2024 roster with the emergence of Edouard Julien and Willi Castro. The combined return of Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Steven Okert as well as borderline top-100 prospect Gabriel Gonzalez do enough to improve the bullpen, depth, and farm system to justify moving Polanco and Gordon to Seattle and Miami respectively.
     The other move I would replicate is the Jay Jackson signing. Jay Jackson is an intriguing arm with a plus slider and fastball. He was signed for 1 year and $1.3 million with a club option that can raise the total value to 2 years and $5.45 million. For that low of a price, there is very little that can happen that can cause the Twins to regret this move.
     As Rhys Hoskins is a Twin in this alternate universe, there is no role for Carlos Santana to be on the roster, so that deal won’t be replicated.
 
For the first year in what feels like forever, the Twins came into the off-season looking very competitive and only requiring tweaks to the roster to be able to continue to compete. With the additions of Shōta Imanaga and Rhys Hoskins, the Twins could solidify themselves as powerhouses in the AL.
That being said, the Twins real-life roster looks to be very good on the backs of Pablo Lopez, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton. So, even if this offseason was a frustrating one, enjoy this upcoming summer, as it looks to be one of the most fun ones in recent memory.
 

WAR, what is it? I know it's wins above replacement but what does that mean? How do they come up with that? And what formula do they use? WAR is a stat that drives Fantasy Baseball &  analytical baseball; helps us evaluate individuals, teams & even determine HOF inductees. I've heard that most HOF voters often use total WAR to determine who to vote for unless they have some bias. But is WAR really the end-all means to evaluate a player's worth?
Let's look at catching. Catchers often sacrifice themselves to benefit the team, put a lot of time into evaluating hitters, and getting to know their pitchers, there's a lot of intangibles in being a catcher that are not calculated into WAR. IMO catching is the most important defensive position in baseball. They're in every play, stabilize the rotation & command the defense. But they haven't been fairly represented in the HOF lately. Why is that? It's because WAR is the standard & what affects WAR is HRs, defense is minimized & the intangibles are not considered.
Let me use a case in point, Yadier Molina. Yadi, you probably heard is a very good catcher but until you watch him play you can't really appreciate how elite he really is. Yet there are many that question his credentials of becoming a HOFer, because his WAR isn't high enough (his slugging % is not high enough although his BA is above average, especially for a catcher). Molina put in 19 yrs, all in STL catching every year. The lowest place they finished was once in 4th place yet they had a 89-79 record, during most of those years, STL made it to the postseason, won the NLC 4Xs going to the World Series 4Xs & winning the World Series 2Xs. Most of those years they were mainly considered a pitching/ defense type team. He won 9 GGs, 4 platnium gloves & 10 AS selections.
Some headlines of the Cards downfall last season blamed "the breakdown of the rotation" others "lack of leadership" yet more " poor defense"  & "catching". I think they could all be summed up with "no Molina". Molina stabilized the rotation, he was a leader, he commanded the defense & had great defensive stats of CS% & picking off runners that digressed after he left. Willson Contreras was a top 10 catcher, the most consistant hitting catcher in MLB. But STL pitchers refused to pitch to him in the beginning, Not because he was a terrible pitch caller (he was probably average) or was terrible in handling the pitchers it was because he wasn't Yadi. Molina had an incredible feel for the game, he knew what was going on all time. He knew when to change up the pich calling, pick off runners, when a pitcher should come out etc.
Joe Mauer deservingly was inducted into the HOF because he was the GOAT MLB hitting catcher, yet all MVP Mauer's years in MN, despite MN's greatest postseason SPs duo of Santana & Liriano, MVP Morneau, (CF)Hunter, Cuddyer plus others never had post season success. If I wasn't such a great fan of our honorable hometown hero Mauer & if I had choice between 15 years of Mauer (55.2 WAR) or 19 years of Molina (44.1 WAR), I'd pick Molina.
Now I'm not here to start a Molina for HOF campaign. & most certainly not start an anti-Mauer platform (I strongly denounce that) this has nothing to do about either. I'm here to show how unfair WAR is to exclusively evalute a player. Where hitting HRs raises WAR means everything & SOs & defense means very little.
 

I read somewhere on Twins Daily that the MVP for the Twins in 2023 was depth. After losing a lead in 2022, the Twins added several depth pieces to their roster along with keeping Carlos Correa after it appeared that he would leave due to free agency. Adding to the starting pitching staff by acquiring Pablo López wasn't directly adding depth to the rotation, but adding a solid starter moved Bailey Ober out of the rotation temporarily, so when injuries eventually occurred, they had Ober and Louie Varland ready as the sixth and seventh guys to take the ball. The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor and with Byron Buxton's inability to play center, that depth piece became a regular. Correa's signing meant that Kyle Farmer, pegged as the regular shortstop, could assume a utility role and the Twins signed Willi Castro, a speedy guy with the ability to play several positions, as another depth piece. Nick Gordon had flourished in the latter part of 2022 and was another player capable of manning several positions. Finally, the Twins signed Donovan Solano late in the winter. He proved to be a vital hitter with the ability to fill in at three different infield spots. 
Many, including myself, lauded the front office for the foresight to be ready for the inevitable injuries and underperformances. As mentioned, Buxton never got to center field and only played in 85 games as the DH, José Miranda, coming off a nice rookie year was both disappointing and injured and only played in 40 games, Projected starters Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff both started the season on the IL and went back on the injury list later in the season. Every position player starter spent time on the IL, one rotation member (Mahle) was lost for the season before the frost was out of the ground and yet the depth (and reinforcements) kept the Twins above water and finally carried them to a comfortable division flag. 
So, this year seems to be totally different. While the Twins appear to have a pretty solid 26-man roster, they have only added a lottery ticket to their bullpen. I know it's only January, but the lack of activity seems telling. There hasn't been any speculation that the Twins were in on a substantial free agent. The club has announced they will be cutting payroll, perhaps to the point that any payroll additions would have to be countered by subtractions. There hasn't been a replacement added for either of the two rotation members who left by free agency and so far no activity to bolster the center field mix minus Taylor. It looks to me like the Twins are going to try to fill these gaps internally, a complete departure from 2023. 
I have belief that players on the roster or in St. Paul can fill those gaps. I think Austin Martin will be a capable outfielder with good speed and bat to ball skills. I think Miranda will come back and capably fill the role that Solano handled so well in '23. I think Brooks Lee will be a future star as soon as this year.  I expect that the current five-man rotation will be among the best in the American League. However, beyond those just mentioned, my confidence is not nearly as high. There will be injuries to the pitching staff and to position players. Most everyone on the 40-man roster will be on the major league roster at some point in the season. I don't see the proven depth to step in when the inevitable rash of injuries occurs. 
I guess the front office is gambling that a) injuries will be manageable and b) the internal options will adequately fill the gaps in the Opening Day roster. I am not so sure, but do understand how tough it is to acquire the help needed with the payroll constraints. 

Henry Blanco was your classic journeyman backup catcher. Known for his glove, he hit just .223 over a 16 year career that was spent with 11 different teams.
Minnesota signed Blanco to a one year deal in December 2003. The expectation was that he would be the number two catcher behind top prospect Joe Mauer, who made his Major League debut on Opening Day in 2004. But a knee injury limited Mauer to just 35 games that season, and Blanco wound up playing a career high 114 games that season.
As expected, Blanco did very little with the bat. He slashed just .206/.260/.368 (.628). This came with a career high ten home runs and 37 RBI, but that was partly due to the fact that 2004 was the only season where he appeared in at least 100 games. His defense provided a lot of value though, as Blanco threw out an American League best 49.1% of base stealers.
Blanco drove in two runs during the 2004 ALDS against the Yankees. He had a sacrifice fly in game two off Jon Lieber, and launched a solo homer off Javier Vazquez in game four. They’re the only two RBI of his postseason career. His teams did reach October a handful of times, but this was the only instance where he was getting regular playing time. The only other playoff start he had came in game three of the 2002 NLDS when the Braves had to scratch Javy Lopez late.
He is now a member of the coaching ranks. Blanco currently the role of “catching and strategy coach” with the Nationals. Blanco has also been a coach with the Cubs and Diamondbacks, with various roles and titles with each club. He has two World Series rings as a coach, winning it all with the Cubs in 2016 and the Nationals in 2019.

I noticed this this mornings and thought maybe there's a couple of players that may fill a need on the Twins roster. 36/40 man roster filled.
Intriguing free agents after the tender deadline (mlb.com)
Nick Senzel in CF wouldn't be the worst fit. He's also a pretty good bat against lefties.
Juan Yepez as a RH 1B/OF option? This one a question even mentioning. Was pretty good in 2022...Minor league signing?

Awhile back, I was working on a post (still working on it) to identify the greatest season by a Twins starting pitcher. I still haven't entirely decided on that one, but after going through the starting pitching stats for every year since the Washington Senators became the Minnesota Twins (in other words, since 1961) there were a couple of fascinating finds - stats that I doubt will ever be surpassed.
Combined Wins and Losses in a Season
The Twins record for most wins in a season was Jim Kaat's 25 in 1965. Back then, there was only one Cy Young for all of MLB, and Sandy Koufax was the unanimous winner after compiling a phenomenal set of stats: 26-8 record, 2.04 ERA, 160 ERA+, 9 shutouts, and 382 strikeouts in 335.2 innings pitched. Wow. Kaat also set another mark that I doubt will be surpassed, particularly in today's baseball: along with the 25 wins, he also accumulated 13 losses, and those 38 combined results should stand the test of time. It's notable that close behind was Bert Blyleven, with 37, and Jim Perry with 36.
Innings Pitched and Shutouts in a Season
These records are also safe, given the specialized nature of pitching these days. For innings pitched, these days 200 is considered a full season - but the Twins have had three pitchers surpass 300 innings - Bert Blyleven had 325 in the 1973 season, Jim Kaat had 304.2 in 1966, and Dave Goltz had 303 in 1977. Nowadays, pitchers get huzzahs for just a handful of complete games, let alone shutouts, but in that 1973 season, Blyleven had 9 shutouts, far and away the best ever for a Twins pitcher. 
Workhorse Pitcher Season for the Ages
Bert's 1973 season was phenomenal in many respects. On a 81-81 team, he went 20-17, but the other stats are eye openers (including innings pitched and shutouts, already mentioned). His 2.52 season ERA was third best ever among Twins starting pitchers (and those who knew that Camilo Pascual is first with 2.46 take a bow. Yes, Jim Kaat was 2.06 in 1972, but he only started 15 games so that doesn't count - same with strike or pandemic-shortened seasons). Speaking of complete games, Bert also had 25 that year, which is also far and away the best by a Twins pitcher. His 258 strikeouts are also the second most, trailing only Johan Santana's 265 in 2004. On top of that, his ERA+ of 156 was fifth best all time for a Twins starting pitcher. Quite a year!
Best Two Combined Seasons
This one could someday be overcome (give it your best shot, Pablo) but I doubt it. It is also debatable, as Frank Viola and Jim Perry both won a Cy Young and also put together another strong year. Still, this one belongs to Johan Santana. Not only did he win the Cy Young in both 2004 and 2006, he also had the two best ERA+ years, at 182(!) in 2004 and 162 in 2006. As previously mentioned, he put up the biggest strikeout total in 2004 and had an ERA of 2.61 and 2.71 in 2004 and 2006 respectively. Besides that, 20-6 and 19-6 win-loss records weren't too shabby either.

On our pitching staff we have a rock solid starting 5 or even 6 if you count Mahle.  (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, and Meada) In the pen we have Duran, Jax, Pagan, and Thielbar and then we have the other guys.  Who are the other guys?  They are the depth starters and relievers used to round out the staff. 
The other guys include:  Varland, Winder, Keuchel, Headrick, Balazovic, Sands, Brock, Deleon, Ortega and Funderburk. 
These guys combined to make 17 starts and pitch 283.33 innings giving up 135 Earned Runs for a 4.29 ERA with 113 BB and 281 Ks.  They combined to go 16 wins and 7 loses and 3 saves.  We wouldn't have been able to win the division without their contributions.  Much like our bench who managed to hit league around league average and provide value on offense and some on defense.  These pitchers held their own in the rotation and bullpen.  Some of them will be counted on for bigger roles as early as next season with the hopes that Varland and Funderburk can step up and be major parts of the staff.  And Brock made it to that point already in his limited time with the Twins (27 2/3 innings pitched).  Will anyone else step-up next season?  Who else will step up and be a bigger part of the pen?  who will remain as one of the other guys.  Someone who helps glue the staff together and contributes in places where needed.  And who will join this group of unheralded pitchers to step in where needed if only for a start or a few relief appearances?