jmlease1

The bullpen wasn't just great on paper last year, they were legitimately good until the end of the season when you had implosions going on as some of them crapped the bed like almost everyone else on the team. Ask yourself how many teams have proven "backups" in their bullpen at the start of a season? And while we don't have a LHP in the bullpen right now, maybe we're better off letting guys like jax, duran, and sands face more LH hitters rather than run out a guy like Okert who shuts down the lefties, but gives it all back against the righties. It's interesting to see people demand that relief pitchers have a "defined role" that only involves specific innings or saves. Can't they also have a role that relates to "if the 2-6 hitters are coming up in the last 3 innings, you're gonna pitch if we have a lead"? While does it have to be so determinative based on innings and saves to supposedly get the best out of guys? because isn't what really happens is that your best relievers get to pad their stats a little by setting down the bottom of the order in late innings, rather than face the best the other team has to offer as much? Duran and Jax have shown success in high leverage roles for multiple seasons in a row which certainly suggests that they'll be good again, especially with so many of the peripheral stats being in their favor. It'll be interesting to see if Cleveland repeats their success; their bullpen wasn't as dominant in 2023; Gaddis was still starting, Smith hadn't arrived yet, and Herrin wasn't good. Clase was nowhere near as good in 2023 as 2024, but his 2021 & 2022 seasons suggest that he will continue to be good in 2025, even if it's not as insanely good. It's fair to see some potential for regression there. Cleveland also had amazing health in 2024 from their bullpen, and who knows if that will continue into 2025?

I tend to agree with the Twins philosophy on bullpen building; too many of these veteran bullpen guys are fungible and throwing $7M at a guy when it's a flip of a coin whether they're be great, average, or awful isn't the best use of limited resources. I think other teams think about it the same way: better to develop relievers internally or acquire them when they're cheap & controllable to see who can get it done 2-3 seasons in a row and either trade them as they get too expensive or sign them for their prime seasons when you already know they're more dependable. A strong bullpen is important, but can be built without needing to invest substantial FA $. Cleveland did it that way: they had an incredible season from their bullpen (especially remarkable for how healthy the top guys were) but of their top 4 Clase was acquired via trade when he was cost-controlled and Smith, Gaddis, and Herron were all drafted/signed by Cleveland and came up through their system. Maybe they've guessed right on Sewald, but is he actually going to be any better than Avila (who was sent down to make room for him)? is $7M for Sewald going to get you substantially better results than Tonkin for $1M? Much rather develop relievers from within than chase guys like Colome or Robles and hope they you catch them on the right year with the right small sample.

I would argue 2020 was a success: Maeda was great for us, exactly what we needed. (and following 2019, which had been an unqualified success with the "early" signings of Cron, Schoop, and the big one Nelson Cruz, adding on Marwin late worked out very nicely) but that's also part of the question; Twins didn't really wait out the market in 2019, did they? sure, they added Marwin late, but they signed Cron, Schoop, and Cruz early to normal in the FA window. I don't really think the Twins have a defined strategy for waiting out the market. I suspect they're simply a team with limited resources and haven't always been able to compete earlier on, not without taking on more risk. Nelson Cruz is a good example of this: very good hitter with a long track record coming off a down season at 38. A 2-year deal for a DH-only player with that profile has some risk, but the Twins paid it and landed him. I'm betting they could have landed Goldschmitt this year if they'd had the money to go to 2 years and $25M...but they didn't. When the market for aging 1Bs bumped over $10M for 2025, the twins were pushed out. I'm sure they were talking to 1B options in December, but no one was signing for $6M at that point and the twins didn't have more to play with because of the ownership's payroll limitations.

the player's association hasn't been interested in serious revenue sharing. they've always preferred that the richest clubs retain their revenue and spend wildly because that benefits the top end of the players the most. Better revenue sharing would benefit more players, but wouldn't necessarily keep the top-end salaries rising as fast. So yes, complicit. I'm not suggesting the players or their union should be accepting a cap or playing pocket protector for the owners. but they'd be better positioned for their overall membership if more teams had higher payrolls and that's going to be harder to achieve without better revenue sharing and last contract negotiations was the first time the players association actually started taking that somewhat seriously. because the biggest clubs can only sign so many players.

Pooling all of the broadcast revenues might have worked but it's complicated substantially by teams like the Yankees owning their own network, which generates substantial revenue for them, but can be hidden quite easily with various accounting tricks, much like Hollywood studios manage to have wildly successful movie somehow "lose" money so they don't have to pay anyone net participation points. but they need to do something because the gulf has grown so wide. the player's association isn't going to be much help on this either; they've been complicit for decades because as long as their top players keep getting massive numbers, they'll keep playing nice about luxury tax numbers and things like that. Their leadership wants LA, NY etc to have a big advantage to keep pushing the markets higher, and their leadership has been significantly controlled by the top players & their agents rather than representing the association as whole. Now, their version of "trickle down economic" has in fact resulted in higher salaries for the middle class, but you're also seeing some of those guys get priced out of the game sooner too. Expect that trend to get worse. not sure what the solution is; the NFL's model works a lot more easily when you only have national TV contracts. the NBA's model has worked, but they're looking at some real problems with their model going forward, even with the increases in national TV contracts they've put together. (how many players can be "max" players in this size of a league? and look at how restrictive the "second apron" actually is for team salaries)

Bet the over on Lee and Festa, and the under on Kiersey and Camargo. Lee's bat will play up much better assuming he's healthy (and the ZiPS projections do). I'm definitely a believer in Festa. But I understand if people are skeptical. Until a starting pitcher proves it, he could be anything. varland looked like a starter in his first opportunity and he's gone south rapidly. I like Kiersey, but I just don't know if he can hit in MLB, and I don't think he'll get enough run in CF (mostly because of the bat) to rack up much. he's a fine defensive player, but even ZiPS has his OPS under .700. Cmargo just seems to be falling further out of the Twins plans. I think if they had this much faith in him they wouldn't have been adding catchers in the high minors/40-man.

Cruz signed on Jan 6th, so it's not like he was super late in the FA period, and signed a market-rate deal. As I recall, there wasn't as much demand for DH-only hitters (NL hadn't adopted it yet), especially for ones who were turning 38, but I also recall the Twins targeting him, so it's not like we were just the last seat available when the music stopped.

Would I trade Vazquez, Varland, and Matthews for cease? Yeah, i think I would. Is that going to be enough for SD? no, i don't think it will be. Guessing it'd be more like raya, and keaschall to make SD happy. I'm less enthusiastic, even if I do have concerns about Keaschall's recovery from a significant injury. Raya and Matthews? now I have to think very hard about this. (I'm assuming vazquez's contract is involved somehow, and we probably have to move Paddack for an A-ball lottery ticket to make payroll work) Some of it comes down to whether or not Cease could be retained at all with new ownership. Pitching prospects are hot air until they perform in MLB, so who really knows what all the cheap season of guys like Raya and Matthews are worth? Does a great rotation win a title with this Twins team? Cease, Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and SWR is an awesome rotation. We'd still have Festa and others waiting in AAA (Morris, Adams, Lewis, etc). basically the real question is whether or not the Twins can pick the pitching prospects least likely to be for-real MLB starters and still sell them to SD. because we're all going to lose our minds if they deal Raya and Matthews to SD and then in 2026 they're both in SD's rotation and pitching well while Cease signs a $300M deal with the &#$@* Yankees and the Twins didn't get out of the ALDS in 2025... Twins volume of starting pitchers in the high minors is impressive, but none are sure locks, because almost no starting pitcher prospect is. I'll admit, I don't even know how to value some of these guys. the college pitchers they've brought in don't have high prospect rankings to pump their value, but their results have been good. What's Christian MacLeod worth on the trade market? or CJ Culpepper? Maybe the time is right to bundle up a couple of these guys and take a swing.

This is basically the "I hate our front office" version of the last 6 years. You don't actually know how any of these deals came together, so you're framing them in a way least favorable to Falvey, whom you clearly despise. You don't know who initiated the deals, you don't know if Falvey "sat passively back", etc. Our "fantastic catching core"? Garver hasn't caught more than 30% of his appearances since he left, and Rortvedt has been injured or bad or both for most of the past 3 seasons (and got traded again). Revisionist history in the extreme...

not even a little. (I'm not sure he's actually going to be worth $25M in 2025, either; he's declined in value each of the last 2 years, so if that's a trend...) But it's a shame our penurious ownership makes it an utter impossibility to realistically consider. Christian Walker would have been quite a good fit, and we were never in it at all. Goldschmitt might be cooked, but a bounce back season from him would have slotted in very well with his good defense and right-handed bat. Never had a chance there either, and $12M on a 1 year deal wasn't bad. Pohlad Twins are not gonna spend. So trade it is, hope they can find a good one.

I hope they've got a good one pending. Because as much as i still like the overall roster (I do think there are going to be some players who didn't do well last season who bounce back/step forward on the position side and I like the pitching staff quite a bit) there are still holes that can/should be patched. Would I love to see us get the payroll back up to $150M+ and bring in Pete Alonso? yes indeedy, but I'm also realistic. the outgoing ownership might not be chopping things back further, but they still have the purse strings tied tight. That means trade, and Vazquez, Paddack, and/or Castro will likely be on the move with 1-4 prospects. The Brinks truck you'd have to back up to pry Walker Jenkins out of the organization should be semi-sized, but no one should really be off the table. Just don't sell low. Go ahead and deal A-ball pitchers if that's what it takes. Hopefully there's a real deal out there that improves the team in 2025 without selling off 2026-2027. But I have zero idea what it is right now. Vazquez seems to have value, though. And I'm sure Paddack could be moved to open things up to take salary back in a deal.

never let stats get in the way of an opportunity to trash the manager. :P

You are correct: 87 wins rarely wins you a division. (It does happen, and did in 2023) That said, since they expanded the playoffs, every team with 87 wins has gotten in. '21 had one miss (smaller playoff), '20 everyone projected to 87 wins (not sure how else to evaluate) made it in, and '19 (again, smaller playoff) had one miss. So 87 wins gets in the playoffs, and a chip a chair and a chance is the #1 priority, right? I one division winner with 87 wins during baldelli's tenure was...baldelli. We also need to move past the idea that the AL Central is the "worst division in the game", because it's simply not. even with the CWS being trash, the AL Central is better than the AL West. the NL Central isn't any better, and the AL East has 3 good teams (maybe one great team in Philly) and 2 awful ones. not a ton of difference there, really unless you want to weight the good teams much heavier. (go ahead and make the case?) the payrolls might be the lowest in aggregate, especially with no one spending this offseason, but that doesn't mean the teams are bad. 3 out of the 4 teams in the AL Divisional round last year were from the AL Central.

Martin's terrible fielding last season was surprising to me, because all the reports from the minors were that he was a good OF, who could handle CF and might end up being a plus in LF because of his range. And he was bad defensively last season. There's no way around it, and I'm a guy who likes Martin and believes in him. The jump from AAA to MLB is a big one and it's where a lot of talented players stumble. This feels like a bit of a make-or-break season for Martin: get on base, play good defense and carve out a role, or get passed by guys coming up through the system (Rodriguez, Keaschall if he doesn't stick on the dirt, and Jenkins are all making their way). Maybe the different parks and sizes and lights messed him up. Maybe he never got comfortable anywhere. Maybe he didn't put in the work. Maybe he's just not that good. Maybe it was a fluke (which does happen with defensive stats, but Martin didn't pass the eye test last season either). He has the physical tools to do it. But he's not going to get there with sloppy defense and an OPS under .700. With the utter failure of the team to do anything to improve the team so far, he's got a window with Rodriguez coming off surgery and only having a few ABs in AAA, Keaschall coming off TJ and never playing above AA, Jenkins likely to start in AA, Kiersey not impressing at the plate in his cup of coffee, and helman rarely being healthy. But he needs to play much much better defensively, make more contact, and get on base more.

It really is the biggest cliché in professional sports.

The idea that Luis Arraez will bring in 3,000+ fans per game all by himself is pretty silly, though. Signing/trading for anyone to improve the club would certainly make a difference in attendance, especially early in the season and would help contradict the awful end of season narrative. Ownership screwed themselves and the team with their tight-fisted ways after 2023 and it has nothing to do with Arraez. Here's the thing though: Arraez probably doesn't actually help the Twins all that much. He's a limited defender with a real injury history. He doesn't hit for power, and he's not taking walks like he used to. His OPS is also 145 pts lower against LHP, and one of the bigger needs for the Twins is some thump against LHP. I'm sure if he;s healthy Arraez will be somewhat better than last season, but he's still going to be below average or worse against LHP: he's basically never been good against LHP. So how is spending $14M on a limited player who doesn't really address team needs and should be platooned a good idea? SD's not taking on money to move him. He's just a bad fit. And I say this as someone who likes Arraez. Fun player, good dude. But bad fit for the cash-strapped Twins who need a RH hitter, not a slow singles hitter who is meh defensively and can't hit LHP.

Quite a drive-by on Trevor Larnach. hope that it's not true (or if it is that he's grown up a little since it was a couple of years old). 13 is not a great jersey number for the hometown team, lol.

I think that's right. I do feel like the bullpen is in a place right now where we don't have to count on Stewart being healthy all or most of the year to have a good, productive bullpen. Which is where you have to be with pitchers like that, IMHO. Set yourself up so that if they can pitch you go up a level, but you have options in place that doesn't leave you desperate if/when they can't go. I'd like to know where Larnach is as well: he was battling turf toe all season, even when he played and i don't know that he was ever fully healthy. How is Miranda doing? he didn't need surgery (good), but is his shoulder going to be strong enough? how's his back? What's Brooks Lee's injury status? Again, no surgery (good!) but how's his back going into the year? Sounds like Buxton and Lewis are in good shape as well, but they're two guys I'd love to hear more about their health status and how they're approaching the upcoming season. I'm sure it was a relief for them to not be coming off surgery this off-season!

I hate the "wait wait wait" until the end of the off-season and try to bring someone in at the last minute who didn't get the contract they wanted or spinning a late trade. not sure it helps the team prepare well to scramble the basket just as spring training starts or in the middle of it. But this is what we get with the self-imposed payroll limitations the Pohlad's have imposed on the team after botching their tv and streaming rights, demonstrating a fairly unimpressive business track record, and general unwillingness to invest in the team. I'd like Falvey and Zoll to be more aggressive, but they're certainly limited by ownership, and since everyone in Twins Nations knows about their limitations the rest of the league does too and I'm sure they're using that to try to chisel trades out of the twins that don't land well for us on a talent standpoint as they use our financial limits against us. few teams in the league are actually stupid and/or incompetent any longer (FL? CWS...who have new decision-makers, and may have gotten it together? Angels? Mets are a little like the old Yankees, but can buy their way out of trouble. Oakland has an even worse ownership than the Twins, but their baseball staff isn't bad. Colorado? Are they stupid or just in a rebuild?) I did like the Cartaya move, but it's very low wattage. I like the twins squad quite a bit, in part because I do think some of the collapse late last season was a bit fluky. I like our pitching staff. But this team is aching for a RH corner OF/1B/DH bat, and those guys were on the market, but we had no money for it. because of ownership. And I guess because management couldn't figure out how to shed salary/make a deal early enough to move Paddack/Vazquez to free up cash. I'll put that 70% on ownership, 25% on management, 5% on the rest of the league for (smartly) looking to squeeze the Twins. I hope the sale comes soon, the twins start the season winning, the fans come back to Target Field, and we find some positivity. making a good trade to fill a hole would be a good start.

Nothing like Luis Arraez to derail a thread about whether the Twins should invest in the rotation! I'd love for the Twins to add Cease to the rotation: superior starting pitching wins a lot of games. I think we can survive losing Vazquez (a terrible hitter at this point), but I don't know how high we'd have to go on the prospects to get it done, and I'd be concerned about him being a rental too. It certainly would make it easier to deal Paddack if the rotation was starting at Lopez, Cease, Ober, Ryan, and SWR. (and if SWR was part of the package, Festa slots in just fine). Boy, that rotation looks good. But I wouldn't trade Ober or Ryan as part of that deal, because with our current payroll limitations, how do we keep Cease? It'd be a big gamble on new ownership. (and it's pretty laughable to think of Arraez coming back to the Twins this season; SD is looking to move him because of salary; the Twins are going to take on $14M in salary for an injury-prone singles-hitting DH who doesn't hit LHP well and can't run just because his AB's are fun to watch? Whose salary are we shedding to fit Arraez on the roster and make us net worse just to make the people who hate Ks happy?)

Team HoF is going to be a different standard than MLB HoF to begin with. Koskie was a key member of a bunch of good Twins teams that emerged after a long time in the doldrums. As a 3B he was one of the better ones in the AL when he was a Twin (you can make an argument that he was right there with Glaus for 2nd best in the AL behind Chavez during his peak), and was popular with the fans and great in the community. Not his fault they didn't win a title during his time. 116 OPS+ and 22.1 bWAR during his time as a Twin is pretty dang good and he locked down 3B nicely. Gaetti is frequently seen as the best 3B in Twins history (I mean, technically it's Harmon, who hit so much better than anyone that it didn't matter that they never should have made him play 3B), but he racked up an OPS+ of 100, and his bWAR of 27.1 is more...but is also over more seasons. Gaetti the better defender, Koskie the better hitter. But they're fairly close, aren't they?

loved Koskie. he was a heck of a Twin. Might have (should have?) won a Gold Glove if it hadn't been for Chavez out in Oakland, which is pretty impressive considering he initially looked like he was playing 3B with a frying pan at times rather than a glove. But he really put in the work and improved. Huge part of that 2002 team that needed maybe 2004 Johan and a little better bullpen luck and they could have been one of those special teams.

I'm hoping he's at least twice as good as Lew Ford, or consistently as good as Ford was in 2004 (aka, his one really good season). Much as I love the fact that Ford loves baseball so much he kept playing Indy league baseball until he was 46, I'm really hoping Keaschall has a significantly better MLB career than Ford. Lew Ford is another one of those Twins players where his best season was both desperately needed at the time (the Shannon Stewart magic was wearing off, Kubel's knee exploded, Cuddyer was still trying to make it on the dirt, and Restovich was a bust) and would have been so much better if it had come in 2006 when Mauer & Morneau were rolling, Johan was the best pitcher in baseball and a bunch of guys in the lineup were looking good. Getting those peak seasons from your supporting cast at the same time really makes a difference. (Hi, Kevin Tapani! Thanks for being your best self in 1991!) I like keaschall a lot. Hope he recovers well from the elbow injury. Serious injury, but a lot of hitters have responded well to that surgery before, so hopefully by midseason he's destroying pitching in AAA and pushing guys in MLB to be great or lose their jobs.

I think without knowing names of any of the other possible bidders it's easy to make the Ishbia's the front-runners. On paper, they're a very good fit for what MLB wants in an owner: vast resources, already been vetted by MLB (Justin as minority owner in CWS) and the NBA (Mat as majority owner in the Suns, Justin as a minority owner), and a known love for baseball (so that it's not purely a financial move). but we don't know anything about any of the other groups that might be bidding. Zip, Zilch. Nadda. For all we know, this is something the Ishbia's are trying to get out there to avoid a bidding war, or to push the Pohlads to move and take the sure thing rather than dangle it along. I'm fine with the Ishbia's buying the Twins; Justin might be a much better owner than what we've had, more willing to invest. better at working the business side of the house and growing team revenue. There's some signs in Phoenix that they're looking to build fan support through more than just "if we win, they'll come". It's hard to think they could do much worse. but until we know who another bidder or three is, the Ishbia's are just the front-runner by default.

yes, Julien sucked to end the season. (Correa & Buxton were good. Wallner, Larnach & Santana were fine. Basically everyone else crapped the bed) How was Castro's finish to the season? .200/.296/.267 (.562 OPS). But hey, he didn't strike out as much, so I'm sure it's fine. The people who are done with Ed Julien as a player have essentially decided the 2023 didn't happen, only 2024 matters, and that he has no chance to bounce back and be the player who was 7th in RoY in 2023. It's a bold and unforgiving stance to give up on a player like that after one poor season. Is that what smart franchises do? Throw away a young, cheap player immediately after things go sideways? Maybe he'll never figure it out. Maybe he's too passive at the plate and doesn't make enough contact. Or maybe he makes adjustments at age 26 and gets back to being a plus hitter. But he should be in the mix for 2025.