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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Diaw seems unlikely to stick at catcher; his athletic gifts seem to do him better in the OF. The prospect depth is good for sure, but none of it is in AAA yet, so you don't really have much of a surplus yet. Could it create trade opportunities? Sure, but while Tait did fine this season he wasn't a world-beater and I suspect right now you'd be mostly getting bad offers from teams hoping we're dumb enough to sell low.
  2. jmlease1
    If Bohorquez has figured out where the ball is going when he throws it, he could start rising quickly. I'm encouraged by his end to the season. Wonder if he will throw some in the AFL or Winter Ball this year, since he missed time at the start of the season?
  3. jmlease1
    Put him in LEFT field where his strengths (speed and range) are maximized and his limitations (poor arm) are minimized. Rodriguez has an excellent arm, Jenkins has a quality arm, Buxton has a fine arm...all of them are better potential RF than Keaschall. It's the biggest knock against Shelton this season: after Wallner got sent down he still left Larnach sitting out in LF and started sending out guys better suited to left into right, while leaving a player far better suited to right hanging out and not getting to balls in left. Keaschall can probably play well enough in LF to be an acceptable 4th OF who also DH's often to get his RH bat into the lineup. With Jenkins & Rodriguez like on the roster next season there's still enough ABs out there and with both of them able to spell Buxton in CF (and they should be finding ways to give Buck more days off) there should be plenty of ABs for the 4 of them between 3 OF spots and the DH. Bell is gone next season, so there's room.
  4. jmlease1
    Unfortunately, Morris has struggled quite a bit lately, and is looking like a much bigger question mark. I had thought he was going to be a guy you could pencil in as a set-up man for next season, but right now he looks like he needs some time in the lab to find solutions to getting hit. He had a rough august and is following it up with a worse Sept...but maybe it's a little bit related to how much he's gotten used and not being used to the patterns of relief? Lee I have a fair amount of confidence that there's still some more to be found there. Getting him off SS will help, and he's improved as a hitter every season in MLB, and it's notable that whatever injury problems he's had with his back and shoulder seem to either be behind him or are well-managed enough that it's not making a difference. He's starting to look like a quality starter, and you need those. I think the upside is still there with Prielipp, but he's not there yet. He's been a little unlucky, but he's also just given up a little too much too. The good thing is he finally seems healthy and despite pitching more this season than his entire professional career to this point, doesn't appear to be hitting the wall; he struggled in august (hey, there's quite the pattern here!) but has rebounded nicely in Sept. The 2022 draft has produced a bunch of guys that have made MLB, which is a success...but so far outside of Lee there's not a lot of significant contributions yet and certainly no star power.
  5. jmlease1
    He's now with Seattle's AAA squad. Was released by Toronto after they tried him in relief. He had a big implosion before they cut him.
  6. jmlease1
    CJ Culpepper? He's been inconsistent, but I could see him getting added. He's the sort of player that gets taken: pitcher with something interesting about them that you could stash in the bullpen for a year and work with? He's also the kind of guy that gets offered back after showing he's not ready and you need ot have the ability to option him. Rosario & Sabato are interesting question marks. I'm not convinced that either are real MLB players; Sabato probably deserves a shot at this point, but are the twin interested in giving it to him? Rosario is a poor defender with holes in his swing but has huge power. That's usually not a great combo and can get exploited in MLB. But both did the job in AAA this year. But Rosario was excellent in Saint Paul (better than Wichita) and Sabato out-hit some guys who got looks by the Twins this season. If I were a bad team/rebuilding, I would pluck one of them in the Rule 5 and see what you got, but it feels like the Twins are pretty ambivalent about them.
  7. jmlease1
    I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the lottery rules; are the Twins still eligible to move up since they receive revenue sharing money and this will be at least 3 straight season in the lottery? It certainly would be nice to add a high-level pitching prospect for sure, but I still believe in "best player available" especially for the first round of the MLB draft.
  8. jmlease1
    yes, Houston rebounded nicely after a dreadful August where it looked like he had really hit the wall (not all that unusual for a guy playing his first full pro season) and hit much more like he did in his terrific June & July. I hope that's a sign he was just a little ground down; the pro season is twice as long as the college one in terms of games and I imagine it takes some adjustment. I suspect he'll be better prepared for the grind next season, but regardless he had a very successful season and did a lot to quiet concerns about his bat. I won't be surprised if he starts the season back in Wichita, but I have little doubt that he'll be in Saint Paul fairly quickly. Winokur had a nice last day, which is better than not, but he struggled in his conclusion at Wichita. I would still say it was a successful season for him as he did show more consistency this year and ability to let his athletic gifts play. He still needs work on his approach at the plate, but it's definitely improving. If he swings through fewer balls and chases a bit less then he's going to start looking very dangerous. I would like them to stop playing him at SS and focus on 1 infield position (like 3B) and some CF (where his athleticism plays up nicely). SS is really hard and he's exceptionally unlikely to ever play it in MLB, so why not take something off his plate? He'll be back in Wichita, but could jump up quickly if his bat takes another step forward.
  9. jmlease1
    He's probably Twins top 25 at this point? The question for him isn't whether or not he could get people out, it's whether or not he had any idea of where the ball was going when he threw it. If he can hit his spots he'll rise up quickly. But he still walks a lot of guys and isn't particularly efficient. But the stuff is real.
  10. jmlease1
    Houston with 2 errors? Clearly he'll never make it as a MLB SS, the Twins front office made a major mistake in drafting him, maybe they can dump him in the offseason for someone better. #sarcasm I'm happy Quick got through the season healthy at AA. He's got some real development work to do in refining his pitches and establishing sufficient command and control...but he's pitched so few innings that the biggest thing he needs is innings and work still. The fact that he got through the season healthy is a good sign that there's no lingering effects from his surgery and he should be able to march forward. Good sign that he can have a normal off-season and put together a pro program. He pitched nearly as a many inning in his first pro season as he did in his entire college career, so while the talent is there, he's going to need some time.
  11. jmlease1
    I will never understand the people who treat a player's injury like it's a personal failing. This isn't Shaq getting fat all summer and showing up out of shape and unable to play to his contract. It's an injury, and there's no one more unhappy about it than Buxton. (reminder as well, you cannot force a player to have surgery!) I hope Buck will come through this and be able to play like he did in the first half. When he's healthy, he's a delight to watch on the field and I'll miss him. It's a tremendous shame that he's had so many injuries and has so rarely been able to let his talent shine because of it.
  12. jmlease1
    Correct, it won't be popular, because Trevor Larnach is not really worth the arbitration raise he'd mostly like get...nor is he worth the roster spot. It might be worth exploring if Larnach had an option left and could be sent down if he wasn't performing, or if he had more significant trade value, but he's got neither. And while you listed a bunch of guys that in theory could take Larnach's spot and might be no fun to watch...the reality is there's little chance of Martin, Wallner, Clemens, Outman, Kriedler, or Fedko starting in the Twins OF next season if Larnach is gone. Keaschall? Sure, and we might think better about his glove if he were playing in LF where he belongs. (Clemens is far more likely to start at 2B) Roden is still a possibility...but far and away the most likely option is going to be either Jenkins or Rodriguez, playing in RF. Larnach isn't precisely a problem (though his rotten August, coinciding with Clemens rough August, and Buxton getting hurt did help torpedo the offense) but his upside is low and there's a real opportunity cost to his roster spot. He's been healthy all season and he's topping out like it was 2024, which is a below average starter. There's small likelihood of greater upside (it's not like he's going to improve defensively or suddenly start hitting LHP) and we need greater upside. It's time to move on from him.
  13. jmlease1
    Clemens has had a fine season and earned his roster spot and frequent presence in the starting lineup. He'd look a little better if the team could protect him against LHP, but he's survived much better this season than I would have projected. He's a solid enough defender at 2B, and while we haven't seen him at 3B with the Twins, it feels like he could back up there without any real trouble. Does just fine in the outfield corners...clearly stretched in CF (but I appreciate his willingness). Weirdly poor at some things at 1B? He fields the position well enough in handling grounders and pop-ups but in terms of helping out his infield as a receiver it's not great. But we've had far worse guys there and I'd be ok with him providing depth there. He's the clear starter at 2B unless the Twins go out and find a significant upgrade (which seems unlikely). I'm not sure how much more upside there is (finding a way to draw some more walks would be nice) but if he's sitting somewhere 5th-7th in your lineup, that'll work nicely. I mean he was really good at the plate May through July.
  14. jmlease1
    It's an interesting question, but one that I will happy with if it becomes a real debate. That's the sort of "problem" I want to have, deciding between two quality players with slightly different skill sets that both belong in the majors is where you hope the franchise is...as opposed to throwing a guy on the roster because there's no one else. There's a lot of things that we'll need to see more of: how Houston's bat progresses (his glove may be good enough now, but if he doesn't also hit then he's a utility guy), what kind of adjustments Culpepper makes (or is forced to make), etc. But the Twins are much better positioned at SS than they were 3 years ago, where we were hoping maybe Lee could stick there and didn't have much else for options. It's been a while since we've had a SS stick with us for 4-5 seasons at the position, and it would be nice to get there again...
  15. jmlease1
    He's fine? Shelton seems to fall into the muddled middle of managers in MLB (how about THAT for alliteration?) who aren't objectively terrible, but it's difficult to see how they actively improve their team's chances of winning consistently, game over game. These are the guys who will likely win a lot of games if they have good players and decent injury luck, and lose a lot of games when they don't. Everything about Shelton seems...fine. There's not too many utterly head-scratching things about the way he fills out a lineup card, runs his bullpen, or makes substitutions. He seems to have the respect of the players and while we don't really know what goes on behind the scenes, there don't appear to be any real clubhouse problems and players appear to generally like/respect each other and pull in the same direction. Probably the biggest issue I have with Shelton is his decision to prioritize Larnach's "comfort" in playing LF over playing an outfield alignment that makes more sense based on player's strengths and weaknesses. there's no planet where Austin Martin or Luke Keaschall should be playing RF and Trevor Larnach playing LF. But if that's the worst thing I can say about Shelton, then he's probably a perfectly fine manager. We overrate the impact of managers when they win and when they lose. There's little reason not to bring Shelton back next season, and firing him because the team has sucked down the stretch again this year is almost certainly an overreaction.
  16. jmlease1
    He'd have a better chance if he were a real CF? Too soon to tell for him; he simply hasn't played that many games, really. Keep pushing him up to AAA next season and see if he can stay on the field and keep raking. Maybe he gets a shot. Feels a little fringy right now.
  17. jmlease1
    there's literally nothing out there that suggests that Hunter and Buxton have any kind of feud and Buxton has spoken publicly about Hunter being a role model for him in how to be a professional. (Hunter is also the guy who threw a punch at Morneau and got into a fight with Pujols, so let's not pretend he's some delicate flower) Yes, most Twins fans love Byron Buxton. He's probably the most exciting Twins player I've ever seen, and some of us don't hold his many many injuries against him as if they were a personal affront. Hunter had a great run with the Twins and I'd say the fans were pretty supportive of him and the media was very supportive of him. He's lost some of that personal support when he's taken shots at the franchise and for other things he's said...and that's the way it goes. You're trying to make this about Hunter vs Buxton and there's really no there there.
  18. jmlease1
    Part of what you have to ask with a question about 3+ WAR players (besides which version you use) is whether it's because of talent or injury too. A healthier Buxton & Jeffers both get there in 2026 (and Buck was one who made it in 2025) With the pitchers is particularly interesting which version of WAR you use; based on the design I've always felt that bWAR was more descriptive of what actually happened on the field, whereas fWAR was arguably a better predictor of future success (or failure). Taj Bradley has a BIG delta between his fWAR and bWAR basically because fWAR is saying he got lucky a lot and shouldn't be rewarded for it and bWAR is saying the result is what the result is... Regardless of the actual results of someone finishing with a WAR over 3, it's easier to feel more positive about the direction of the team because you're seeing more young players on the 2026 roster and more of them are contributing. It's not that hard to look at Culpepper and think "that's a 3 WAR player in 2027" or "Keep Brooks Lee at 3B and he's a 3 WAR player" or "play Keaschall in LF next season and he's a 3 WAR player" whereas last season you might have only said that about Keaschall...
  19. jmlease1
    Why do you keep bringing Byron Buxton into this? He's got nothing to do with Torii's last season with the Twins, really: Buxton was a 21 year old rookie CF; Torii hadn't played CF in 5 years. It's also not about who would you take to start your franchise: we're literally talking about his last season. You want to crap on Buxton...ok? (I always find it a little weird when people act like a player getting injured is a personal failing, but YMMV) It still has nothing to do with whether or not Torii was good or bad in his final season. I actually liked Torii a lot as a player, but I'm also realistic about who he was. The 22 homers were decent, but the lack of xbh in other areas was below his standard and what you need from a starting RF. His batting average was essentially a career low (I think you can exclude the cup of coffee in 1998?) and the OBP was a career low. Considering he also wasn't a good defender any longer, he basically sucked as an every day RF. If things didn't end badly, they wouldn't end. The context here isn't about Hunter's career as a whole (there's no question he's had an incredibly successful baseball career as a player, and it's pretty clear that it's a more successful one than Buxton's. Which one is actually the better player is a more interesting question...but that's a different question entirely) but about his last season, which he seems to have some regrets about...and strangely seems to blame the Twins for his own choice. It's fairly impressive to hit 20+ homers at 40 years old in MLB; it's not impressive for your RF to have an OBP under .300.
  20. jmlease1
    Real question on Roden: is he just not gotten enough opportunity in MLB to show what he can do, or is he a Quad-A player? I honestly don't know the answer. Good end to a fine season for Houston, who appeared to hit the wall hard in August, but finished strong with a nice stretch to close things out in Sept. It'll be very interesting to see where he starts next season; there's a good argument that he's ready for AAA. Nice to see Gallagher finish off the season well; he was pretty inconsistent at AAA and it led to some brutal outings...but he also had some nice outings too. He's probably destined for the bullpen at some point, but you never know. As a lottery ticket he's done ok and I'll be curious to see if he can figure out some things in the offseason. Would like to see Rodriguez up ASAP with the Twins, especially since the season is basically done. Let's give him a chance to get his feet wet now, since he's very likely to be part of the squad in 2027. Let Larnach take the rest of the season off, start Rodriguez next to Jenkins and see how it rolls.
  21. jmlease1
    Is this the Torii Hunter burner account? Congrats, you found Hunter's best skill as a player: being healthy. Doesn't change the fact that he sucked in his final season. Neither Buxton nor Mauer combined have said half the dumb things that Hunter has shoveled out of his mouth in the course of his baseball career.
  22. jmlease1
    The more Hunter talks the less I end up liking him. WTF is the bit about his wife not wanting to come back to MN after the way things ended the first time? What, because they didn't hand him a huge contract, so she's holding a grudge (or more likely Torii is still feeling slighted and is passing it off to his spouse)? Considering that Hunter sucked in his final season, I'd normally think that adding him to KC would have been more likely to torpedo their chances to win the WS than add to it, but Rios was somehow even worse, so probably didn't matter which washed up RF they signed. Although real possibility Hunter could have screwed up their chemistry? I have zero sympathy for Hunter. "Oh noes, the Twins offered me real money and opportunity to rebuild my relationship to a fanbase that I had crapped on heading towards retirement and I took it and guessed wrong on which team might also get me a ring." Boo effing hoo. He was quite bad in his final season, totally washed up. I'm betting Hunter will be out soon from his advisor role with the Angels with the change in ownership, and I'm guessing he won't be sought after for a significant role for an MLB club. He definitely will not be getting a shot as a manager, and I would not want him.
  23. jmlease1
    It's unlikely that Lackey is playing for the Twins in 2027, but the idea the Twins don't move prospects quickly through the organization is based more on hype and whining than evidence that they slow play their prospects substantially more than other organizations. Culpepper only played 1 full season in the minors, and in the equivalent of less than 2 full seasons worth of games moved 5 levels. (and would have been up in MLB sooner if he hadn't picked up an injury) Keaschall had a similar path and was aggressively promoted despite a significant arm injury. For all the complaining about waiting too long on Jenkins, he's still in MLB at 21. Twins move up prospects quickly that they think are ready for more. Won't be surprised at all if Houston starts next season in AAA and is looking at the Culpepper path. 2027 arrival is very very aggressive and seems unlikely just because he hasn't played a game above A-ball yet, catchers usually need time to develop their skill sets, and he was just drafted this year. Seems likely that he starts the season in AA in 2027, but his movement up will be based more on what he shows he can do and what he's ready for rather than the idea that the Twins have some organizational philosophy about not moving prospects quickly through the minors.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm very pleased with what we've seen from Winokur and Diaw upon promotion to AA. They're having nice seasons and are interesting prospects. It'll be interesting to see how aggressive the Twins are with promotion for them next season? Houston had a pretty brutal August (I'm going to guess he hit the wall a bit with his first full pro season) but it'd be great if he can put together a good September and finish the year on a strong note. The overall season has been quite good and I'm much less concerned about his bat now. I have trouble getting too excited about SBs in the minors, especially the low minors. Pitchers aren't doing a lot to hold runners on, the catchers are still developing so even ones with real arms aren't necessarily very accurate with them, and the inexperienced fielders aren't exactly polished up to handle every off-target throw and make a good tag. Kala'i Rosario stole 30+ bags in AA last season. He's not exactly running wild in Saint Paul and he's getting on base plenty. It's fun seeing a guy get 50 swipes, but how much does it really mean?
  25. jmlease1
    well, if that happens, it'll be really easy to complain about how bad the Twins are.
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