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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I mean his FIP in the first appearance was 4.37 and he ended up with an ERA of 13.50 after that, so these things do even out a bit, right? He's off to a fine start, especially out of the horrible weather conditions, which hopefully he's mostly done with until Sept. We'll see how he looks in a month, but it's looking like he's moving in the right direction. He only had 8 MLB starts last season. It's not like there's a pattern at this point of "Mick Abel looks good for 2 games before sucking for a month and then has 2 more good games fooling people into thinking he's good" or something. Starters coming up, showing some promise but mostly struggling as they try to get acclimated to the far far better competition of MLB is hardly a new story. He appears to have made some adjustments and it's showing some intriguing results. His last 2 games were awfully fun to watch...why not get a little excited about his upcoming start against the Mets?
  2. jmlease1
    There's simply not enough evidence to show that Shelton is all that different from Rocco in handling the rotation. Especially since Pete Maki is still here and is very likely the driving force on how the starters are being used. Rocco got a reputation for being a quick hook when he was pulling crappy starters like Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy, and for the most part have looked to protect someone like SWR. But they weren't dogmatic about it across the staff. When they had the horses, they let guys go deeper. (it's notable that Sonny Gray pitched more innings for the Twins in 2023 than he had in years, and more than he's pitched since, but you still hear people around this joint complain that Rocco drove Gray away with how poorly we supposedly treated him as a starter) Pablo hit career highs for innings in a season with the Twins, and hasn't thrown a single pitch for Shelton. Reality is right now the Twins have a pretty good looking starting rotation and a lot of limitations (I'm being charitable here) in the bullpen. That's probably driving the decision-making more than anything philosophical that people have pre-determined about Rocco v Shelton. They've had a reasonable pairing of offense and pitching as well, which simplifies some of it. It does look like they're more flexible this season on when relievers enter and exit games, which may be about matchups and a need to adhere to it more, or it could also be Hawkins influence on the staff as well. Probably too soon to tell; but it would be interesting to see if there's a real uptick in how often a reliever comes in mid-inning and/or carries over to the next from this year to last.
  3. jmlease1
    I know Seth is a big fan of his D. I'd say whether he can stick there depends on who you're asking. Prospect evaluators are frequently skeptical of anyone sticking at a premium defensive position, IMHO. I think Ross has the tools and skills to stay a SS; the issue for him has been his bat, which has been pretty bad until this season. Batting Average isn't the most determinative stat in the world, but when you can't crack .220 at AA in 2 consecutive seasons, it's a real question if you'll hit enough to even be looked at as a utility guy. What he's done so far is wildly out of character for him. (that said, more power to him if he's figured something out and starts raking!)
  4. jmlease1
    I dunno, considering how easy it is for prospects to bust/struggle there's no reason for him to stop play OF. Now, should he be getting more time at 1B, seeing as how the Twins need more options there and it would be an area where he could succeed (especially since he's no great shakes in the OF)? Totally agree there. But Wichita is in a bit of an interesting spot: Amick is getting plenty of starts there, which I think is good for him to split time between 1B and 3B, and Salas is also playing 1B now too (I'm assuming they think his bat has potential and it's either 1B or 2B for him as he slides down the defensive spectrum?). Mendez isn't a good OF, but I think there's actually a bit of a logjam at 1B with multiple players they want seeing time there in Wichita right now.
  5. jmlease1
    Could be, but the BB make me a little nervous. I won't make a fuss if he stays in FL for another few weeks. Nice start by him, though.
  6. jmlease1
    In fact Ben Ross is almost 25, and this is the 4th season he's spent time in AA (he had a cup of coffee in 2023 as well). He's reaching the "up or out" stage of his minor league career, but maybe he's figured something out.
  7. jmlease1
    While it would have been nice to sweep a mediocre Red Sox team that's not playing terribly well, at the end of the day we won the series and if you keep winning series you're going to have a good season. Not a great performance by SWR; he simply can't be that hittable, regardless of whether Keaschall is making a hash of it behind him or not. At the end of the day, SWR gave up 6 earned runs, so it wasn't just the defense. Too bad Morris wasn't available; Twins could have used him here and might have been able to shave a run or two off? Banda has been more of a "pour gasoline on the fire" guy rather than putting anything out lately: that's 3 outings in a row where he's bombed, and none of them have exactly been high leverage. Seems like a candidate for demotion sooner rather than later? Appreciate the offense not quitting on the game and putting some runs up in the 9th, but it's pretty tough when you generate so few baserunners the first 7 innings. (Twins really can't catch a break with the LH starters, can they? 2 more coming with Cincy! Yeesh.)
  8. jmlease1
    You literally said Falvey deserves no credit for acquiring Abel and that if he's actually this good it's all because of the coaches. You don't know how the trade went down, and the idea that it was all the Phillies just handing over prospects and being the only ones with agency in this is pretty ludicrous. But even if Philly came to Derek Falvey with the whole trade packaged up just as it went down...he still was the guy at the end of the day who said yes. No one is seriously proposing Falvey as executive of the year, but reasonable people are willing to look back at the deadline deals and based on the performance so far say things like "hey, he might have made some really good moves for us." Claiming he deserves no credit if these deals work out is bizarre.
  9. jmlease1
    To be fair to Lee...so far he's shown continuous improvement on offense each season he's been in MLB. Now, he started low enough that it wasn't exactly a high bar to clear...but you do like to see it. (OPS+ of 64 as a rookie, 80 last season, and 104 so far this year.) If he can start adding some walks to those hits he's been generating (he does have good contact skills and has shown the ability to turn on a ball), maybe we'll have something. He's a very smart player, but I do wonder if he gets too far inside his own head at the plate at times.
  10. jmlease1
    Wichita is going to be an interesting group to watch this season. It's not exactly a group of youngsters, overall, but there are some guys who are decent prospects, and some other guys who are trying to regain a little luster to their stock. Amick is doing fine in his first try at AA, but the K's are a little concerning. DeBarge had a great start, but has really tailed off. Nice to see him smack a double, but 1 for 6 isn't great and he's been looking like end of season DeBarge again, which is worrisome. At least he's still taking walks? Mendez is doing very well; you'd think he would have been promoted to AAA this season after a successful year, but if he were in Saint Paul, where would he play? (similar issue for Rosario, but he's off to another frigid start to the season. This happened to him last year as well, and it's a little concerning that he's off to such a slow start two seasons in a row) The Outman Experiment that the MLB club has been mucking around with has impact beyond just MLB; roster spots are valuable and poor use of one can create logjams. Now, the guys in Saint Paul haven't covered themselves in glory so far this season either, but it really shouldn't be a "goal" for guys to not debut until they're 25-27...
  11. jmlease1
    There's no question he's swinging the bat better. What remains concerning is not swinging; he hasn't drawn a walk during this hot streak and only has 2 for the season. But he is improving offensively. We'll see if it's enough.
  12. jmlease1
    So Abel is in the rotation and doing well, but Falvey deserves no credit for the acquisition? I suppose he doesn't deserve any credit for grabbing Joe Ryan either, because Ryan wasn't a high enough prospect in the Rays system? This is just weird, blind hatred of Falvey.
  13. jmlease1
    Abel was fantastic. Even when the BoSox got a runner on, you didn't feel concerned because he was pitching so well. Boy, if this who he is now, we are going to be smiling a lot. Really terrific start. Caratini did a nice job calling that game too: Sox looked confused the whole night. Only knock on Abel is his dugout interview was pretty low energy and bland. Come on, mah dude! You crushed it out there! Love it when Buck gets on a roll. He was locked in tonight that's for sure. And very nice to see Lee turn on one and send a ball out from the left side. He's looking better at the plate. Winning the series was great. Love to see a sweep!
  14. jmlease1
    It's a start? For me the rubber meets the road when we see what they do with payroll, what they do to grow the fanbase and market the team, etc. The biggest failure of the Pohalds as owners has been the almost impossibly bad decisions on the business side of things. They have totally failed on the media side of things, between failing at their attempt to create their own network, lagging desperately behind on streaming, continuing to try to go to the well of the RSNs when they were obviously failing (and not really preparing for the collapse), failing to grow the fanbase regionally, etc. Has that improved? We'll see. Notably, their PR has been dreadful, mostly related to ownership: tone-deaf and stupid. That has improved, as Tom Pohlad is a far smoother and more polished messenger than Jim or Joe ever were. He's correctly acknowledged that they've lost faith and credibility, and while there's been some fakery, it's no more than I would expect from any team owner. Tom has improved the vibes, which is a start. The team surprising basically everyone by playing pretty well to start the season certainly is helping that a lot. I mean, the Tom Pohlad Presence didn't make much difference when we were losing series to start the season. But the visible and accessible presence does help. I still would have preferred they sell the team, but at least I don't feel like the ship is crashing with no one at the wheel. (I do feel a little bad for Joe, who seems like a very nice guy that actually loves baseball, but really didn't have the ability to be the front-facing owner...and at the end of the day probably didn't have the authority to call all the shots, either. Can't be easy to see the generally good things people are saying about Tom and how "things have improved" with ownership)
  15. jmlease1
    The concerning thing is that only 1 of these guys is on the Top 20 prospects list (Prielipp) and he's the one that probably least deserves the designation of being "hot". The K's are great, the stuff is terrific, but the walks are not. That WHIP doesn't exactly scream "dominant". He certainly doesn't look ready for his call-up. Ross has been excellent so far, but if he didn't look great in his FOURTH stint at AA (admittedly the first one was a cup of coffee), he'd be in the "hey kid, maybe it's time to think about coaching. Or real estate." mode. He's about to turn 25 in AA. Just sayin'. Eli Jones is off to a nice start, but you would hope that a college pitcher in his age 23 season would be able to handle A-ball. He needs to keep this rolling and earn a promotion to AA by midseason. He's way lower than usual on his walk rates and no one is hitting him much right now, despite relatively pedestrian K's. Is this sustainable? Basically, I'm not all that excited by this as the "hot" list.
  16. jmlease1
    Excellent win. Was nervous about facing Crochet, who had been very good so far this season and had to wonder if facing this parade of LHP was going to get to the Twins. But they absolutely jumped all over him. Ober wasn't great, but he did the job which was to get through at least 6 with a big lead and make sure to give at least 1 guy i the bullpen the night off. Mission accomplished, and he probably pitched a little differently than he would have without so much run support. Was good to see the fastball break 90 mph again? As a 5th starter, he's doing ok. Just puts pressure on other guys to step up. Things actually could have run worse last night for the BoSox; Bell hit a few deep that came up empty, he wasn't far off from putting a few in the seats. Thought Molitor was decent in the booth last night? Provus & Perk did a good job to leading him in, and with a little more practice I think he'll be a fun addition. Best moment? When Crochet got pulled, Molly commented: "I think that ERA is going to take a little hit there, Perk." That was pretty damn funny.
  17. jmlease1
    I have my doubts about Fedko as well (even after an insanely massive game, he's only hitting .219 and has drawn 1 walk all season), but the bar is set so low right now by Outman that there really isn't much to lose. The only real question is whether or not you're going to need that spot on the 40-man down the road to call up someone else on the position side, but with GG and Rodriguez already on the 40-man, it seems unlikely. If it's for Culpepper, it likely means an infielder has gotten injured...or maybe you just bounce Kody Clemens or Tristan Gray and not worry about it too much. Since Fedko can play both CF and 1B and bats RH...why not?
  18. jmlease1
    I actually think the system has been showing the umpires in a pretty good light? When the "misses" are mostly coming in at such a fine line, isn't it showing that the umpires are pretty dang good at their jobs? There's not been a ton of reviews on egregious misses, because there aren't a lot of those (we just remember the bad ones that end up costing a team and make it to SportsCenter a lot more) and when an ump gets overturned on a call that's 1/2 an inch it's not an insult. The NFL's review system is not a great model to be aspiring to. Their reviews take forever sometimes, and NFL fans are more confused than ever as to what actually constitutes a catch and what doesn't. VAR in the premier league does fine on offsides, I think, but has similar issues with time spent on review. The speed of what they're doing in baseball is part of what is making this work. I'll be interested to see where this lands at the end of the season. I suspect by the end of the year you're going to see almost no pitchers ever challenging a call (they're bad at it, and the catchers are far better), and fewer hitters. There's some tweaks to be made, perhaps, but it's been pretty seamless so far, and there's been some good humor in seeing a hitter get mad and challenge a call entirely because he's on tilt and get rung up anyways.
  19. jmlease1
    what a useless comp. Why not say runner on 3rd in the top of the 9th with 1 out and the Twins ahead by one run, who do you want in RF? Unless you're talking about super-duper stars, you're pretty much always going to be able to find a scenario where one player is "better" than the other. How is this helpful? Martin's a useful player, as long as he can keep getting on base: avoiding outs is incredibly important to having a good offense. For him to be more impactful, he'll need to be able to apply his speed better on the basepaths and in the OF. He's shown flashes. I don't have a problem with the Twins looking at adding some power to his approach in the minors. That's what the minors is for: to try and perform player development to maximize their success. It's difficult for players with basically zero power to make it and sustain it; it's why we talk about them like they're unicorns. If you're not a threat to turn on a ball and punish a pitcher for throwing a meatball or hanging a curve, you need to get on base a LOT to compensate for it, and if you're not adding another tool to the bag, then the floor might be ok, but the ceiling is not very high. If they could have added a little more pop to his bat, maybe we're looking at more of a Shannon Stewart type on offense. There's not a lot of comps for what Martin is doing right now. He's not going to maintain the .500 OBP; even a .400 OBP is elite.
  20. jmlease1
    It's why they say There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. Be a bummer is Raya flames out, but it happens all the time. Hopefully he can figure it out. But this is also why they traded for more starters at the deadline, because you can never have too many options coming out of the minors, because guys can and will continue to flame out.
  21. jmlease1
    A very nice win. Last year, this was the kind of game where Bradley gives up 6 or 7 and can't get out of the 4th, but despite really struggling with his command on the off-speed pitches, he was able to battle his way through it and not give up the killer hit (usually a homer). Morris did fine. a little too hittable, but he did the job, which was to chew up innings. I hope they don't punt him back down to AAA, because I think he could do this role and the team could use that on the roster. Because of Ryan's long start and Morris' solid work, pretty much everyone is rested and they should be able to get through the next few games without Morris, so why not keep him around? Good job by the offense stringing together hits despite a getaway day lineup that was missing Buxton. They weren't piling up the walks like they have been, but the two HBP helped: get on base however you can, boys. Nice series win.
  22. jmlease1
    DeBarge has been a little all over the place to start the season. Good to see him get some hits back on the board after a rough series vs Arkansas. He can't seem to do much against LHP this season and not being able to mash LHP dragged him down a bit last season too. Another error early in the season to go with getting nabbed on the bases isn't great. Diaw's going to be interesting to watch this season; Tait will get more attention, but there might be something there with Diaw and he could move quickly.
  23. jmlease1
    Is he? Or is he off to a poor start defensively, in part because we have sub-par play at 1B? Because he was just fine at 3B last season (and showed out well in 2023). But sure, write off his defense after 100 innings in 2026.
  24. jmlease1
    I think we're all aware of Kreidler's history. He's clearly here for defense, and I'm betting the Twins aren't expecting Lewis to miss a lot of time either, so he probably won't be here long. (he's also a guy they can drop back from the 40-man if they need to with little risk of him getting grabbed right now) There is depth at AAA, but they're clearly not looking to bring up Culpepper unless they think it's a position where he won't be going back down. The rest of the depth is really in the OF, or did you expect that the Twins had AAA depth 3 deep at every position?
  25. jmlease1
    I'm less enthusiastic about Rogers, who hasn't looked great IMHO: far too hittable, and eventually that's going to catch up to him. But Caratini, Bell, and Orze in particular have looked good so far. I always felt like Bell was going to be a good signing: dude can hit. He's not impressive defensively, but we need the offense. Caratini isn't setting the world on fire, but the bar for offense at catcher is so low that he's clearing it easily. But the more he plays at 1B the less exciting his .300 SLG looks.
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