jmlease1

He doesn't have much trade value. We have to get past that. Did he out-play his contract in 2026? Sure, but he still wasn't a starting-quality player because all he brings to the table is hitting RHP. He's not a good defender. He doesn't add on the bases. He can't hit LHP. he's a good hitter against RHP (not a great one). Here's the other thing: he's not really getting any better. Larnach's production in 2026 was basically his production in 2024 (a few more games, a little better offense, even worse defense). What are the odds he's going to do better in 2027 at 30? He's probably not getting any faster, and there's nothing to suggest he's going to hit LHP any better. If we needed a LH platoon bat to play OF/DH, then his salary would be ok (not great, but ok) for 2027, but LH corner OF/DH is where we are stocked the most. Younger guys did tear it up in the minors last season and Larnach still played and played and played. They couldn't find a deal for him at the deadline; maybe it's because the Twins kept demanding too much...or maybe there was never much of a market for him. Which is more likely? Roden put up a 117 OPS+ in limited time and is 3 years younger, a better fielder, and a better runner (and can play 1B). Jenkins is a far superior fielder & runner with a much higher upside. Rodriguez is a much much better fielder and has a much higher upside. All are substantially cheaper. All need playing time. None will get enough run if Larnach is clogging the roster. It's ok to let a guy go with minimal or no compensation. It's not ideal, but you have to care more about roster composition than losing value. Larnach doesn't fit any longer, and if we keep chasing value with him we ensure we won't get better.

Tom Pohlad won't be making this decision, Jeremy Zoll will. Since Zoll tried dealing Larnach at the deadline (too bad Crane nixed it at the last minute!) I'd say the writing is on the wall.

This. It's not all that complicated. Larnach is a decent platoon DH who can stand in the OF. We need more than that. Between Buxton, Keaschall, Rodriguez, and Jenkins we already have 4 OF that are more likely to contribute more than just at the plate (even if Keaschall is as bad as Larnach in the field, he's still far superior on the bases). We've also got Roden, who is better defensively and on the bases, and may be as good a hitter, and Gonzalez who may be just as bad defensively, but can play against LHP. There's just little good in tying up resources and a roster spot in Larnach, who isn't a bad player, but is limited. You can't risk finding a trade after tendering him, so it's get whatever you can on him before the arb deadline (all you need is one team unsure if they can sign him if he's a FA and gets to pick his club). A-ball pitcher lottery ticket is enough. Save the money, save the roster spot, move along. Good luck Trevor, nothing personal.

Outside of Ty France, the FA pickings are exactly the same guys who were out there last season, only none of them got better. And seems likely that SD will try to keep France.

I generally agree: Twins should be shopping for their first option LHP in the bullpen (whether that's Minter or someone else at that level) and a RHP set-up man that could be the first pick to pitch the 7th-8th inning in higher leverage situations. Abreu seems to be a guy they like and want and would fit that role nicely, and giving him a 2 or even 3 year deal shouldn't be too high-risk. Right now they have: Hoffman, Gomez, Morris, Funderburk and maybe Nance and Sands along with Adams and some fringe guys to pick from. They need a LHP that can be trusted from Day 1 to pitch higher leverage situations and has more certainty than Funderburk. They need a RHP that can slot in behind Hoffman and makes you less reliant on Gomez and gives you more time to develop Morris as a reliever. They will have to spend to fill those roles, but they don't need to pay the additional 20-40% premium on "proven closer"; they already have Hoffman and despite late season struggles Gomez was quite good at pitching the 9th on a regular basis so they have guys who can finish games. A bullpen of Hoffman, Abreu, Minter, Gomez, Morris, Funderburk, and Sands with the last spot open to competition (maybe it's a reclamation project, maybe it's Zebby getting bumped to the bullpen, maybe it's Adams after an offseason in the lab, maybe it's Festa (lol) back and healthy). Even if you dump Sands into the "maybes" crowd and have 2 spots open, that's ok if that's the top 6. I wouldn't complain if they added 2 RHP with real velocity and experience to the bullpen, but they need 1 LHP and one RHP who can handle higher leverage roles from the jump. I actually like Morris quite a bit and think he could potentially be one of those guys, but we should want him to be a middle reliever who gets opportunities to test himself in higher leverage roles and has to earn his way into being a set-up guy.

Well, I prefer bWAR for pitchers, as the fWAR model for pitchers tries to describe what they think should have happened and bWAR more accurately describes what actually occurred on the field. So yes: I'm fine with paying $17M for 2 experienced relievers who collectively put up a 2 bWAR in 2026. Abreu has 5 straight seasons of a bWAR of 1 or more, has thrown 60 innings or more in all of them, with a K/9 of at least 11 in all of them. Orze has never done any of those things and is only a year younger. Minter's velocity was down this year (we'll see if it comes back up at all after a healthy offseason) but he adjusted his pitch mix and remained effective. He's been a quality reliever for years. I'd also suggest that he's unlikely to get a raise on his $11M AAV with his injury history in a market where there are plenty of LHP relievers on the market. I'm not looking for inning eaters here, I'm looking for guys you can trust with medium to high leverage situations from the jump. Both pitchers have the track record of success to show they're not just fungible relievers and raise both the floor of your bullpen by pushing less proven guys down the pecking order and the ceiling with their history of being able to step into roles late & close. If you want different guys, I'm open to it. But we shouldn't be looking at the Eric Orze's of the world to step in to cover the 7th or 8th inning next season out of spring training just because he had an ok FIP and his theoretical pitch quality looks good when his actual results are pretty meh. Want Orze back as the 7th guy in the bullpen? I'll listen. But not interested in him being looked at as the second or 3rd RHP out of the bullpen coming out of Spring TRaining.

I hope the team has realized that while building a bullpen on the cheap may be preferable, you can't expect to throw one together out of leftovers and failed starters in a single off-season. The acquisition of Hoffman who is under contract for 2027 suggests they know better this time and are remembering that losses in the beginning of the season count for just as much as losses at the end. I'm really hoping they bring back Minter or a similar LHP (it's probably the biggest depth area on the FA market, LH relievers). Add in another real set-up guy (Abreu was a guy they tried to acquire already and would be a good fit) with Hoffman, Gomez, and Morris and now you have a bullpen that should be solid from the jump with real impact arms available late & close. That's real insurance if Sands doesn't get his velocity back, Funderburk doesn't take another step forward, etc. The good thing is, with Hoffman already signed and Gomez with experience as a 9th inning guy, the twins don't have to overpay for a "closer". They can spend market rate on 2 set-up guys (whether it's Minter & Abreu or someone else) and have a bullpen that can actually support what should be a pretty good rotation (depending, as always, on health) and even have some money to invest in the lineup.

unfortunately the 1B market is pretty dismal and/or risky and I'm not exactly thrilled with the 2B opportunities. I know people around here are obsessed with Arraez, but he's been pretty poor since joining Philly and frankly none of the options sitting in FA are likely to be significant improvements on Clemens, unless you're one of the 7 people who think Jazz Chisholm is ripe for a big bounce back. I'd certainly spend at catcher to bring back Jeffers, but I think the Twins are going to get out-bid.

As a baseline, I can see this. It's important to think of it that way: this is a potential starting point, a "no moves" roster, not even a prediction of what might get done or any suggestion that this is what Nick thinks the Twins should or even will do. That said, I do think that Ober is gone. Much as they love Ober, I think they and we all know at this point that he has little to no chance of recovering his velocity, he's a likely candidate to spend time on the IL, and while he can chew up innings in the back of your rotation the upside is unfortunately gone. I think they'll explore trade options with him before non-tendering him. Someone else will give him a 1 year deal in the $3-5M range when they miss out on other free agents and just need to fill a spot. I'm increasingly of the opinion that Lewis is going to go as well. And as much as I've always rooted for him, it's probably time to see if a change will do him good. While the 1B market for FA is pretty rotten, letting Lewis go opens up more opportunity to take on salary in a trade as well, and if a significant upgrade isn't found? I'd rather roll with internal options from the minors and see what happens. Pick up a 1B glove, Alan Roden. Work on your footwork, Hendry Mendez. Even Sabato feels like he might have more upside at this point than Royce (probably not, but how can we expect anything from Royce at this point). My initial thought is that Banda won't be back either; he's fairly cheap but he's coming off a significant injury and he's hardly lit the world on fire. As a second LHP, he's fine but I think Funderburk is more likely to get that opportunity: cheaper and not coming off an injury. While I really want them to find an offensive upgrade in FA or via trade, I'm having trouble figuring out what that looks like. I suspect Ty France will get priced out...and he's a bit of a risk for the 4 year deal he'll unquestionably be looking for. The rest of the 1B options are unimpressive. The bullpen is a pretty reasonable place to put some dollars and keep a quality bullpen in place for Opening Day (whenever that might be). Bring back Minter as the top LHP. Add Abreu to be a 7th-8th inning guy as a RHP with experience and ability. I do think Sands will be here if his velocity is back post-surgery. YMMV on whether that's good, but 2024 Sands was really good. Maybe the other spot besides 1B to try and get an upgrade is the Kreidler/Ross type of spot?

This is a joke, right? He's not signing an extension unless he changes his agent, so that's out the window already. You want to burn additional payroll space as a giveaway, because we're not getting anything more for it. You think he's getting more in arbitration after an injury-filled second half where he struggled mightily (again)? The projections are usually pretty on-target; what are the odds that Ryan would even file at over $12M after his season? There's going to be faux bitterness for any player that actually goes to arbitration, because pride gets in the way. Even though the current arbitration system itself guarantees raises for the players, regardless of their actual performance on the field they still all get mad about it. Additionally, you see pride in the way if you non-tender a player; it's really hard to re-sign that player after that, even if you're offering the same or more money than might be available in FA because pride gets in the way and they're insulted that they were non-tendered in the first place. But mid-market and small market teams can't get caught up in that or they end up overcommitting to players.

Roden certainly should get a 1B glove for spring training, but he's still got some fit issues for the Twins which is part of what was so incredibly frustrating about his acquisition and then the absurdly imbalanced roster going into spring training. If you're going to acquire players who are near MLB you have to also concern yourself with fit, not just pure value. Value is fine when you're talking about prospects that are AA or lower, because you won't know what your MLB roster needs even will be 1-2 years out and you can adjust for overpopulating in an area. But Falvey made an error in acquiring Roden without having a place for him, and then the team (and Zoll bears significant responsibility here) compounded it by tendering Larnach (even though it worked out) and keeping Outman (insane on the face of it, as literally everyone around here noted). Roden's thumb injury probably factored into this bad decision-making because they only had 12 fairly ugly games to evaluate him on, and making a final call on him as a player based purely on that would have certainly been foolish, as he's shown in his still limited time in 2026. But it doesn't change the fact that this team is overstocked on LH OF. It's still a bit messy, even with Larnach likely (hopefully?) non-tendered this off-season. Seems nuts to start Jenkins in AAA (what does he really have to prove there?), and Rodriguez doesn't have an option, so he's either on the 26-man or somewhere else. Buxton and Keaschall give you RH options and both hit enough that you want their bats in the lineup. Roden as the 5th OF might be ok, but there's still not a lot of ABs there, and as a platoon option at 1B he could work out, but the issue the Twins have is against LHP, where you don't want Clemens playing 1B 2B or anyB, including OF. Happy to have Roden picking up a 1B glove and glad to see him not stink, but Twins still got a lot of LH bats that play corner OF.

Short answer: no. They're on a better path I guess, but actions speak louder than words. The trade deadline was a start, but only a start. Long ways to go.

Yeah, I don't hold the player personally responsible for an injury that requires season-ending surgery. Sands probably deserves something more like an Inc. He was really good in 2024, it'll be interesting to see where his velocity is after he's done with rehab and whether or not he can get back there. If he can, it would be a very nice bonus

I think it certainly should be! Being able to acquire pitching from another team's system is almost as valuable as developing them straight from draft picks. There's a higher cost, but also lower chance of bust. Overall the pitching development has been better, and they've shown an ability to refine pitchers from other teams into valuable assets. The biggest concern right now is whether or not there's enough depth in the high minors that's going to be ready to contribute in 2027 (Quick still needs development, Bohorquez is a ways off, etc) and after the last couple of seasons you have to be concerned about rotation injuries. Bradley might not quite be as great an acquisition as Ryan was (gave up more), but moves like that are pretty dang impactful, and the sort of thing that teams like Cleveland and TB have excelled at. If you look at the top 13 pitchers for the Twins this season by IP, 6 were drafted by the Twins as their only club (plus Rogers who was drafted as a Twin and came back as a FA), 5 were acquired by trade (with 2 having never thrown in MLB before being acquired), and 1 waiver claim. Interesting.

I'm still wondering about what happened to SWR. he was a very solid starter in 2024 & 2025 and it's all gone completely to hell for him this season, and he finished the season on Seattle's AAA roster. The peripherals tell the story of how it happened: walked to many guys, couldn't get K's any longer, was incredibly hittable, and the defense did him no favors. It's an utter collapse across the board for him...but why? Toronto couldn't fix him either and they were dying for rotation help, but still ended up trying to get him right in the bullpen...and it didn't work. It's not like his success 2024-2025 was an obvious fluke or anything; the FIP lines up reasonably well to the ERA. Baseball is a funny game, but I'm guessing SWR wasn't laughing much this year. I really hope the Twins try and bring back Minter, who was quite good and is someone that you'd feel very confident in coming in late & close as your top LHP in the bullpen. I'd be much happier with Funderburk being the second option and the two of them together could be a strength in 2027. Joe Ryan...I love watching the dude pitch, but the second half swoons are incredibly frustrating. He was a very deserving all-star in the first half...and injured/ineffective for way too much of the second half. Don't know what to think of him right now. Taj had a great season. He really stepped up and looks like he can be a front line starter. If he can figure out how to get settled before he takes the mound rather than in the second inning he'll be even better. From a pure pitching standpoint, if he can just cut down on the non-competitive pitches a little bit he'll be even more dangerous. If he can make it a little harder on the hitter he can take another step forward, because the stuff is excellent. Real success story for the team. Super bummed that Abel went down just as it seemed that he was figuring it out. Kind of expecting that he'll start next season in AAA to show he's fully healthy, which gives the team some starting depth especially if Ryan is still on the Twins. Eliminating the rotten relief innings from the early part of the season would go a long ways to raising the floor on this team. I'm not generally a fan of spending significant money on the bullpen, but making sure they come out the gate with a stable bullpen is worth it at this point and spending a little on Minter plus an arm like Abreu would provide real depth and push guys like Gomez & Morris further down the pecking order until/unless they show they're ready for high leverage situations. There is a part of me that likes Gomez as the "closer" though; he seems pretty comfortable pitching the 9th and I'm happy to let him be the guy who collects cheap saves while deploying Hoffman & guys like him in key moments late in games rather than holding them back for 9th inning "saves".

Keaschall also adds value on the bases; Larnach's value is entirely in his bat and he's only playable as a platoon guy, since he simply can't hit LHP.

You really think Clemens was a GG 1B with all the trouble he had with scoops? He did fine there and his range was nice, including going into foul territory, but Gold Glove? Nope.

Except of course that they were leading the league in hitting with runners in scoring position for a big chunk of the season and well above what was expected of them. Then it regressed back to the mean and proved to be unsustainable. (still finished 6th overall in OPS with RISP and 3rd in BA with RISP) Are we ever going to get past this idea that "clutch" hitting is actually a definable and repeatable skill or is the fiction going to be with us as long as baseball exists?

It's clearly the position of greatest need, great opportunity. Royce hitting a homer in the last game of the season doesn't alter how badly he slumped down the stretch, and despite a hot streak after his demotion really wasn't enough of a factor at the plate. (I do think he improved defensively at 1B and could be quite good there...but you need a hitter there as well) Unfortunately, the FA market looks dire at 1B. Will be very interested to see if a trade is possible. I hope they don't give up on Jeffers as an option to invest in...but it is notable that he too was awful in Sept. But if he goes, the ceiling really tumbles at catcher and floor as well, unless Lackey is ready a heck of a lot faster than anyone reasonably expects. Investing in the bullpen makes a lot of sense. Either bring back Minter or go get one of several proven LHP options to be a lead guy in the bullpen, not a mop-up. (there's several serious options in the FA class if they can't reach a deal that makes sense with Minter) Go out and get a guy like Abreu to firm up your RH options and let someone like Morris develop as a reliever and take on higher leverage innings as he proves capable of them, rather than out of desperation. Be less reliant on Gomez knowing where the ball is going at all times. Would I feel pretty good about a bullpen of Hoffman, Minter, Abreu, Morris, Gomez, Sands, and Funderburk with 1 position open to competition? I certainly would like it a lot better than what we started with in 2026. The rotation is an interesting challenge. Having Pablo back should help quite a bit, but there's certainly risk coming off a significant surgery. But the real issue is how to manage depth if/when a starter goes down injured. We're thinner in AAA depth now and as impressive as Mick Abel was, he's coming off a significant injury as well and betting that he or Pablo won't miss any time is unrealistic. Ryan frequently misses time. Even if guys miss serious injuries, there's going to be ones who will need to miss a couple of weeks with an pull, strain, or blister. The talent levels are intriguing, and would I like a rotation of Bradley, Lopez, Ryan, Abel, and Kremer? Sure would. But managing through when someone gets dinged is complicated. Who has options left besides Rojas? (I still think Ryan might get dealt, too) DH is a spot where they could invest in to shore up the offense, but...I'm not sure I want them to. I like the idea of Buxton, Jenkins, Keaschall, and Rodriguez as the 4 primary options in the OF and the odd man out DHing. That takes wear off Buxton, keeps Keaschall's bat in the lineup, etc. And frankly if we're not going to play the prospects then what are we doing here? That's where some of the upside has to come.

yeah, this isn't really that hard. Both showed some things this season, but if you are relying on them to be 2 of your top 3 RHP options out of the bullpen, you're putting things at risk. Hoffman is the top RHP (assuming he's healthy; hopefully this recently IL stint is precautionary and there's nothing structural wrong) and they need to add one more high-leverage RH who can throw gas. (definitely like the idea of Abreu) You want to move Morris and Gomez down a bit in the pecking order so you're not quite as reliant on them, but there's no real reason not to want them back and Morris in particular may have more to give. (I definitely would like to see Minter back to be the top LHP in the bullpen, but if there's a deep class of anything in free agency this year it's LH relievers)

Ryan started out the game looking wobbly, so nice to see him pull it together and shut the Rangers down. I want him back next season, I want him extended, but I'm afraid he's going to get dealt, so at least this will improve his sale price should it go that way. Keaschall is finishing strong, which is great. Dude can just hit. Happy to see him collect his 20th SB too. Should be able to slot him in at leadoff for a while for sure. Great catch from Rodriguez, and loved seeing how excited he was after making it. Baseball should be fun, and he could be one of those guys that just makes it more fun to watch. If his bat lives up to its promise, then we have a real player there. Rangers didn't look too good after the first. I don't mind playing spoiler...but does Houston really have to be the beneficiary? Sigh.

He might be able to carve out a role, but the Twins can't count on him for anything until after he's gotten back on the mound and shown he can stay there. I'm rooting for him, but anything he contributes will be purely additive and frankly unexpected. You cannot plan around Festa being a contributor to the Twins in any capacity until after he's back as a contributor. That's just the reality.

As noted above, it's not an award given for talent or based on projection, but still let's look at the past winners: 2012 - Oswaldo Arcia: Became a consensus top 100 prospect after 2012, made it to MLB, but couldn't hit consistently and has continued on in the Mexican league. 2013 - Miguel Sano: As noted, made an MLB all-star team, was a consensus top 20 prospect and had his MLB career wrecked by injuries, still playing in Japan. 2014 - Mitch Garver: Never made an all-star team, but did win a Silver Slugger for the Twins and was a quality player for several season for the Twins but had trouble staying healthy. Still playing in MLB and got a nice FA contract, but seems to be cooked after 10 season in MLB 2015 - Max Kepler: never made an all-star team, but in 9 actual seasons with the Twins was a quality starter for 8 of them, playing good defense even if his hitting rarely matched what was hoped for. Even got MVP votes in 2019. 2016 - Daniel Palka: a down year in the system, but Palka did end up making it to MLB and was 5th in the AL ROY voting with CWS. (ok, probably got a homer vote from someone in Chicago) 2017 - Mitch Garver: see above 2018 - Alex Kirilloff: a consensus top 50 prospect whose career was ruined by injuries. I'm still bummed about this one. After his incredible 2018 season was never healthy enough to play 100 games again. 2019 - Trevor Larnach: missed a developmental year in 2020 due to the pandemic, but still ended up becoming a decent platoon bat. 6 years in MLB and will certainly get a contract from someone in 2027 even if it's not the Twins 2021 - Jose Miranda: career ruined by a beaning. You'll never convince me that he wouldn't be a contributor today if he doesn't get beaned like that. Very sad. Hope he finds satisfaction playing in the Mexican league. 2022 - Matt Wallner: MLB pitchers figured him out, but for 2 seasons he was a dangerous slugger for the Twins 2023 - Yunior Severino: not a good selection; his drop-off at AAA upon promotion was a warning sign. 2024 - Luke Keaschall: looks like the leadoff man for the twins for the next 5 years, could be an all-star if he finds a little more consistency and a defensive home 2025 - Gabby Gonzalez: rose 3 levels in 2025; had some injuries and inconsistency in his first full season at AAA, but probably shouldn't get written off yet. It's a mixed bag, which is probably going to always happen with a) prospects, and b) winners picked based purely on performance during a single season. But it's not like it's a field filled with losers and busts. There's a bunch of guys on this list that were real contributors to the Twins and have had successful MLB careers. There's also several guys on here who had significant injuries after winning this award. That's not their fault, nor is it the fault of the people who voted them the award. Would you call Mitch Garver a "failure"? I'd say he was a success.

Really pleased with Prielipp's season. There have been some bumps along the way, but the fact that he threw more innings this season than he has from 2020-2025 combined? And finished the season (to all appearances) healthy? Huge win. They did some thing to manage his workload in MLB and space him out a little (smart!) but he's still finishing the season with total starts and innings right in the same range as Ryan, Ober, and Matthews. Now he can go into the offseason lab and work on refining his pitches and so forth...and not just hope to be healthy. Would like to see a little more offense, but there were some good ABs taken by the younger guys, and seeing keaschall park one is good too. Fine season for keaschall after a rotten start. He's not slump proof either; June wasn't very good. He's still looking like a guy you can count on to lead off and cause trouble.

Wallner doesn't belong on this list, even as an honorable mention. 1) it doesn't make sense to put an established MLB player who got demoted on here, and 2) Wallner didn't address the issue he was demoted for (hitting high velocity), making the stats he put up relatively meaningless. I'm not a Wallner hater, but we can't ignore reality. Kendle is ranked too high as well. Gaudy numbers, but beating up kids in A-ball doesn't impress me much and he only had 45 games in Wichita. I'm more impressed by someone like Diaw, who was 2 years younger and played 25 more games this season. Jenkins is the correct winner, I think. But the most concerning part of this list is the fact that only 1 player exceeded 100 games and they weren't all that close either.