jmlease1

I'm fine with a minor league deal of Bucholtz I guess, but I think we need to move on from Ervin. There's definite baggage there and likely minimal upside at this point. But I think I'd prefer to ride or die with the various pitchers we have then dumpster dive for a veteran. It's not like we don't have experienced pitchers (Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda have all been around for a while now, and even Berrios has multiple years in MLB), so unless we sign a guy who improves the top end (my "better than Gibson" plan) I think we're better off finding out if Mejia, Gonsalves, Stewart, or Romero are going to be options as consistent MLB starters for this team. Having three guys in AAA (or 2 + a guy in the 'pen) isn't bad depth, really. And Lewis Thorpe might be knocking on the door this summer too. Mejia's issue is not getting deep enough into games, but we know he can pitch effectively at this level. Working with an opener might be the solution for him to get the team enough innings out of that 5th slot.

I'm having trouble seeing Tyler Austin as the 1B in 2022 when I'm doubtful he's on the roster in 2019. With Cron almost certainly getting the starting job and Cruz locked in a DH, I'm having trouble finding a spot for a guy like Austin who doesn't have much positional flexibility for a team that is (unfortunately) likely to have a 3-man bench, at least at the start of the season. Unless I'm missing something, Austin doesn't have an option left, so unless we keep 4 bench guys, he gets traded or claimed. (I'm predicting the bench is Garver, Adrianza, and Cave) Maybe this comes true if the Twins keep a 4th guy on the bench, but otherwise I'm having trouble spotting him in the organization.

I think he's going to be waiting a while, then. 1) I'm not sure too many teams consider him a $20M/year pitcher, and 2) too many teams have gotten burned on the 5+ year pitching contracts. (James Shields, anyone?)

I really don't know what to think on Dallas Keuchel. He had a solid year last season and looks healthy again, but the k/9 is down and he gave up quite a few hits. His control is solid and he knows how to pitch, but...is he better than Kyle Gibson? That's sort of my criteria on signing starters right now. If we're going to invest real money in a guy, I want him to be better than Gibson. And how much does Keuchel want? How many years? Do we want him if it's 3 years & $51M? What if it's 4 years and $60M? Kirilloff is going to be a guy to watch this year. I suspect they'll start him in Ft. Myers again, since he only did a half season there, make sure it wasn't a fluke, etc. The jump to AA will be where we really find out how good a prospect he is. A lot of nice looking prospects hit AA and the wheels fall off. I think he can handle it. Sure would be nice for him to be crushing A ball again that he gets bumped faster and then for him to rip apart AA. No reason to rush him up yet (especially since we still want to know what we really have in guys like Kepler/Cave) but I think he'll be pushing for a shot in 2020. He should stick in the OF too, profiles just fine in RF

One of the questions I have about Gonsalves is what exactly are his command & control issues? Is it his mechanics getting out of whack and struggling to repeat his delivery? is it not trusting his stuff and trying to get too fine on hitting the corners? Frankly, the first is more concerning than the second, but I don't really know what his specific issue is. but he's definitely still got one. there's talent there, but he's got to get the free passes down and be able to chew through innings, otherwise he's a AAAA guy. Still time to find out, but right now Kohl Stewart might have jumped ahead of him as a guy people make weak contact against for the back end of the rotation.

It is interesting to look at that prospect list, though! 7 out of the top 10 are currently on the twins 40-man with at least 6 of them expected to be on the 25 man (with Kohl Stewart a possibility for the 5th spot on the rotation). the next 5 has another guy on the 25-man (May), and a prospect who could break through this season (Thorpe).

Have to disagree with you on where Clemens was in terms of HoF or not before he started getting chemically enhanced (which there seems to be agreement occurred in Toronto). He had already won 3 Cy Youngs and an MVP, 4 ERA titles, and had a resume littered was black ink. he'd bounced back from the injury years to throw 242 innings in his last year in Boston and lead the league in K's. Even if he'd had a standard 5-year decline leading to retirement around age 38 he'd almost certainly be in based on the 12 year Boston run through age 33. No longer in conversation about the greatest pitcher of all-time, but the resume was already there. the enhancement years put Clemens into the conversations about inner circle stuff, edspecially because of the added mystique of dominating in his late 30's/early 40's like no one else in modern times. And now we know why. But I think it's a pretty big re-write to say he wasn't already on the path to the HoF because he started juicing. I think you can add in Bonds & Clemens and still exclude guys like Sosa, McGuire, and Palmiero but I understand the concern. I'd prefer the HoF doesn't just throw up it's hands and go, "well, it was the wild wild west back then, nothing we can do, so we'll just look at the stats and move along," myself. but none of those other guys were sure things before they started cheating, either. Sosa? nice player before the juicing apparently started, but nearly half of his total bWAR came in 4 years, coinciding with...peak steroid. He was cooked at age 35. Is it really that hard to exclude him? McGuire? Had some big years, but never won an MVP and it's not like he got robbed. Missed a lot of time for injury (averaged 117 games a year) and it's not like he played one of the high wear & tear positions. Great rate stats, but the counting stats are less impressive. Really needs those St. Louis years to even be in the conversation and there's no question he was juicing then. If he retires at age 34-35 because of too many nagging injuries and he's barely over 400 career HRs his name never comes up. Palmeiro? He's the guy who got busted AFTER the wild wild west years were over, so that certainly makes it easier to exclude, doesn't it? The lack of black type hurts him too; lead the league in hits once, doubles once, runs once. That's it. only 4 all-star appearances. you have to discount one of Gold Gloves since it was back when voting was a complete joke and he played DH most of the year. there's an argument that he was a bit of a compiler and as a guy who actually tested positive it's a lot easier to call into question his many high-performing years late in his career. Cut down those texas numbers in his 2nd stint and isn't he pretty much Will Clark? (a fine player and the epitome of the Hall of Very Good) So I think you can still exclude those kind of guys. Will they? Should they? Fair questions.

It's a fun exercise. I could (and have) quibbled with the rankings a little here and there, but overall it's certainly a reasonable set. Part of what i think people need to remmber is how much team control, upside projections, and replaceability factor into something like this. Corner OFs are easier to find than SS, etc. Can't argue with who the top 5 are. not sure it matters all that much what order they're in? The Mitch Garver ranking entirely depends on whether he can continue to catch, I think. If he's a catcher, he's a significant asset, especially for the twins who don't have another prospect above A ball. I might plug in Larnach over someone like Cron; while I like CJ and I thought it was a good move to grab him this off-season, the high draft pick who has performed right in line with expectations is probably more valuable than the guy who's already been a waiver claim. Thorpe might be the bigger miss though. I think I agree with DocBauer on that one. Meija may be all he'll ever be, and Thorpe could be significantly better. the more I think about Thorpe, the more I think he's going to emerge.

Freakin' Bonds and Clemens. Great players. great even before PEDs. Almost certainly enhanced the latter half of their careers with chemicals, knew they were breaking the rules (possibly the law), and simply didn't care. Part of me wants to get it over with so we don't have to talk about them any longer, part of me wants to punt the decision down the road so we're further removed from the emotion of it. Part of me thinks they deserve to be in regardless, part of me doesn't want them rewarded for their crap-weaselry. I would not vote for Vizquel, despite enjoying his play for many, many years. His flash disguised the fact that he wasn't always as great defensively as his rep, and while he has a ton of hits for a SS, he also played forever. Offensively, he just wasn't very good; superficially he looks a lot like Ozzie Smith, but Vizquel played in a much higher scoring era and simply wasn't as good defensively. The last 5 years he was just a guy hanging around, and he had too many years where he was just an ok starter, and not enough years where he played like an all-star. (there's a reason he only went 3 times: he didn't deserve it more, it wasn't just because of guys like A-Rod, Jeter, and Nomar blocking him. they were just better) I would add Scott Rolen to my ballot. terrific defensively, and had a great combination of power and patience that played very well. He's a better version of Graig Nettles (who deserved more consideration, frankly) and as valuable as Ron Santo. If Rolen had been a bit healthier, he'd be an easy choice for everyone, but the numbers are there. I'm not sure about Andruw Jones (gotta spell it with the "U"!). Huge peak. staggeringly great defensive player his first half of his career. Was cooked at 31. An amazing fall that was at least partially self-inflicted. I just don't know if he's a Hall of Famer. Larry Walker, 100% yes. amazing 5-tool player who hit everywhere he played, not just Colorado (where he did indeed have video game stats). remember, OPS+ accounts for park effects, and he still had redonkulous numbers any time he was healthy. I blame that awful turf in montreal, but he hit like crazy up there too. Terrific defender (great arm, great range in RF) and wonderful baserunner too. not sure about Helton, but would consider. Like Jones, a huge peak. Like Jones, pretty fast falloff. Yes on Edgar, Moose, Mariano, and Doc Halladay.

Seriously? Kirilloff isn't going to end up being that far behind Lewis on the prospect lists and might reach the majors sooner. The kid can flat-out hit and came back from a major injury with no problems at all. There's no way he's not one of the Twins top assets, and eliminating all minor league players save one from the list is silly. Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Javier all should be on this list and there's a good argument to be made for Larnach too.

Hee. another hilarious difference between bRef physical stats and where someone like Thorpe is now. (they list him at 160lbs; the handbook has him at 218.) I'm excited about this guy, and hopeful he has another year of good health, because it feels like injury is the only thing that will derail him making his MLB debut in 2019. After missing 2 whole seasons (consecutively, on top of it!) he's finally healthy and pitching well. He's going to need to get deeper into games, so finishing off hitters efficiently is going to have to be part of what he works on in AAA, but the peripherals look great.

I think what you have to keep in mind with Kepler is that his bat plays pretty well as a regular CF and his defense appears to be good enough for him to handle it on a regular basis as well, which increases his value quite a bit, because it's not just his value to the Twins on the field we're looking at here, but his value to other teams. There are plenty of teams that would probably plop Kepler down in CF and be ok with it even if his offense doesn't improve. There's also the issue with perceived value vs. actual value. Kepler still has greater perceived value because there's still a belief (hope?) that he can & will hit better than this, and as a younger guy with many years of team control upside is still a consideration. he might be ranked a little higher than a lot of us would think because we've grown a little frustrated with his lack of offensive progress, but you have to think there are teams out there who look at him and think, "he's Aaron Hicks, pt. II if we can pry him loose from MN".

I don't care one way or the other about Bonds or Clemens any longer. Both were almost certainly HoF quality before they started cheating, so whatever. I don't know whether it's better to vote 'em in to get rid of their presence on the ballot or let 'em stew. I'd hate for their entrance to be a signal that "nah, who cares about cheating and using dangerous drugs if you throw that baseball hard or hit enough dingers!", though. Agree on Edgar Martinez, Mariano Rivera, and Larry Walker. Easy choices to me: Edgar was an absolute machine as a hitter, wasn't as bad a 3B as his rep, and should definitely be in. Mariano might actually get 100% on his first ballot. Larry Walker wasn't just a great hitter, he was always a great fielder and baserunner. And he hit everywhere he played. Great hitter in Montreal, great hitter in Colorado, great hitter in St. Louis. I'm a no on Manny. Elite hitter, but awful defensive player and bad teammate. Admitted cheater, and kept cheating after an understanding had been reached on what was and wasn't ok. His PED use wasn't a mistake or part of the wild wild west, so why let him off the hook? Sheffield is a no as well, I think. Another disastrous defender, I think he's below the standard and he's another guy who racked up All-star appearances he probably didn't deserve. Terrific hitter when healthy, but didn't add much else and he needed to hang on for a few junky years to get over 500 HRs. Sosa is also a no, I think. Too much of his overall value and stat accumulation was in a pretty short period and that was also almost certainly chemically enhanced. That's a hard vote for a guy who fell apart so quickly, basically cooked at age 35. Scott Rolen is a guy I'd definitely vote for. Fantastic defensive player, excellent hitter, and one of the elite 3B of all time. Despite the injuries, he was still elite. Mike Mussina is a definite yes as well. Absolute workhorse, consistently great. During an offensive explosion he was one of the best at keeping runs off the board. He's a no doubter for me. Curt Schilling is one I'd consider voting for, despite the fact that he's become an increasingly reprehensible human being. Not as consistent as Mussina, but a higher peak in fact. Had some absolutely huge years and was one of the premiere strikeout artists of his time. A big game pitcher to be sure, but that's just icing on the cake. Hard to vote for him, because of all the other crap that's he's gotten into after retiring, though. Helton, Halladay, and Andruw Jones all deserve some consideration. I'm probably yes on Doc Halladay, need to think about Helton some more, and no on Jones. Halladay didn't have the longest career, and it took him a few years to become the monster he became but that 10 year run from 2002-2011...man, he was great.

Man, I really hope concussions don't force Garver away from the plate. He's a terrific asset there and his bat plays so nicely. he's showing a nice combination of patience with a decent amount of pop. His positional flexibility is helpful to any roster, but if he can't catch any longer, it's a real loss. i can't blame Nick for dropping Sano down to this level. It's fair to think that his upside should still rank him higher (he is only a year away from smacking 28 hrs in 114 games), but in 4 seasons he's never played 120 games in any of them. He's had 2 that were...not good. Last season was a disaster. At the same time...he's only 25 and it wouldn't take a whole lot for him to step back up as a premiere slugging 3B. he's an asset, but his value definitely has dropped pretty far and pretty fast. I like May a lot, probably more that is warranted. He was terrific this season, but is it the dreaded SSS or a combo of him finally being healthy and figuring it out? I suppose this season is a prove it one, but I'm glad to have him in mix.

I'm all in on this one too. There's a little risk that age will finally catch up to him, but the contract makes that a manageable risk. The upside is absolutely worth it, and he's likely to be a serious middle of the order threat that should make the guys around him better. I love the fact that his platoon splits are so solid. He crushes LHP (.927 career OPS) but RHP don't exactly get a day off (.835 career OPS) so you don't worry so much about stacking a couple of righty hitters together. Home vs. Away? makes no difference. First half vs. second half? He just keeps on hitting. It's a good signing. I wanted us to go there as soon as the rumors started, and I'm glad we did it. Hope it works out!

I agree with pretty much everything in this article. The only real downside to this move is probably needing to deal Tyler Austin or lose him. Sorry, that's just not much of downside to adding such a dangerous bat.

I love this kid's hit tool. He's going to be a really tough out and has the strength to absolutely punish a pitcher who hangs a breaking ball or grooves a fastball. It will be interesting to see how well his defense goes this season; I agree he's more athletic than we probably have thought of him and it would be wonderful if he improves that aspect while continuing to just hit everything in sight.

Responding in order: 1. I don't know what this means. Yes, there's room for improvement for just about every position, but the team undoubtedly had a need to fill some positions. 2. First, if there's a team option (as rumored) then it's not a 1 year rental. But when you're a team that has talent coming up out of the minors the short-term deals can position you well and give you flexibility. Plus they're easy to deal. The Twins didn't get enough out of the DH last year and this is a significant upgrade. Cruz adds power and patience, both are nice improvements. Morrison & Grossman got most of the time at DH last season: you can't possibly be suggesting that Cruz isn't a significant upgrade over the 2018 versions of those guys. 3. Cron is going to start at 1B. Austin is probably gone, and frankly it's not all that great of a loss. Sano plays 3B. Garver backs up C and fills in a little as needed in the OF, 1B, and DH as needed (and may start at C quite a bit), assuming he's ok after the concussion. Rooker hasn't taken an AB above AA; he's probably a Sept callup in 2019 unless he absolutely kills it with the bat and pushes an underperforming OF out or Cron away from 1B. and if that happens, ok. you can eat Cron contract if he sucks, or deal him if he's good but you want to open up a space for Rooker (Kepler too). There's no real problem here in the short-term for spots, unless you're convinced that Tyler Austin is this wonderful gem that we can't bear to lose. Me, I'm not sold on him. I'd rather have Cruz & Cron. I'm confused with the idea that our roster is suddenly going to be old in 2 years. Most of the lineup we're talking about will still be in their 20's (Polanco, Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Kepler...heck even Schoop & Garver.) And we're expecting some prospects to keep pushing in to keep the roster balanced. I like the signing and advocated for it even after signing Cron. I'm not sold on Austin at all I think he's big power and little else. Cruz has been a great hitter, a dangerous power bat who makes the other hitters in the lineup better. I love that we got him at this price, and hope that we really do have a team option on a 2nd year.

I think it's great for the Twins to see what they can do on Kikuchi. What do we think the contract would have to look like to get him here (not seeing a lot of numbers here). You have to assume it'd be north of what Mikolas got, right? Is he going to want to go a shorter term to a) see if he likes it in the US, and set himself up for a really big, Darvish-style deal? or is it going to be longer out the gate? (bigger risk for everyone: the teams takes on risk not being certain how he'll translate to MLB, he takes risk on being underpaid not knowing how he'll translate to MLB...) 3 years, $42M? 2 years, $30M? More? less? I'm definitely interested: LHP who should be hitting his prime and could fit in well with Berrios and could easily be better than Gibson. (that's what I want for starting pitching for the Twins: better than Gibson) Rotation of Berrios, Kikuchi, Gibson, Pineda, and Odorizzi seems pretty solid. Maybe Romero goes to the 'pen this season to work on his offerings and be a power arms who can go 2-3 innings? Gonsalves and Stewart are the next dudes up for the inevitable injury? He could be a great fit. Let's take a run at it.

That's good to know and makes me feel even better about him as a prospect. Hopefully the additional weight and strength will increase his stamina along with the velocity and allow him to get deeper into games. 220lbs seems about right for his frame, and it'll probably help him to not need to keep adding weight and just get used to being this size. It could be that was one of the triggers that helped him have such increased success with the twins.

Kirilloff can compete. Buxton and Kepler are superior fielders, but Kirilloff's record shows a more advanced hit tool than either of them. He's tracking as a hitter with Rosario pretty well too (frankly, i think he'll outhit Eddie because he's just not the same kind of free swinger). And considering that Kepler has 3 years under his belt in MLB, the odds of him reaching what we used to think was his ceiling are shrinking rapidly. Rosario probably is who he is too (and that's a really nice player, but hardly out of reach for someone who can hit like Kirilloff). Buxton is the one who we still don't know about. Can he be the guy who was a 5 bWAR player in 2017? Can he be that guy without needing an insane second half to get there? Can he stay healthy enough to be that guy? I sure hope so. Maybe Baldelli is the guy he needs to get there. maybe the expectations getting ratcheted down a notch will help him out. Maybe coming in a little mad and having something to prove helps. There's nothing really standing in the way.

He's an interesting prospect to be sure. How big is he? This piece lists him at 220lbs; BRef has him at 175lbs (as does Puckett's Pond, but they might be drafting off BRef). Did he really add that kind of weight and fill out that much? I think that secondary tier is the right area for him, because while he's got a lot of things that are encouraging, there's still plenty for him to work on as a starter. (getting deeper into games, cutting down the BBs, etc) He's been awfully hittable in other stops, so we probably need to be a little careful about putting too much emphasis on 6 starts in Cedar Rapids. I mean, in his 15 starts before he became a Twin he barely averaged 4 innings an outing and was eminently hittable. I don't think I'd have him in my top 10, but I like having a guy with his upside in that 10-15 range...

It's a heck of an argument. I dunno if I buy it or not, but it's a great argument and definitely some out of the box thinking. It's a really good discussion to have if you're going to continue to try and be more forward-thinking with your pitching staff, I think.

Thorpe may not be a consensus top 10 prospect, but he had a nice season and looks primed to reach the majors no later than 2020. Solid prospect that continues to rise. Right now it doesn't look like dealing Palacios is going to hurt the club much. My 2019 breakout pick: Ben Rortvedt. The skills behind the plate all seem to be there, and there was very little dropoff on his hitting when he moved up a level, making me think he's getting a handle on his hit tool as he's gotten more comfortable behind the plate. Maybe a bit of a longshot, and I'm sure there are players with sexier skills but a catcher who can play every day and add value at the plate as well is an important prospect. That's the guy I'm rolling the dice on.

It's certainly possible that moving Romero into a relief role while he adjusts to MLB hitters could make him more effective. Maybe he's a prime choice to pair with an "opener" strategy as a guy who really doesn't go deep into games currently? I honestly don't know what the right way to manage him is, but he seems like he needs to be part of the equation with that fastball and the wipeout slider. Buchholtz and Pomeranz do nothing for me. Buchholtz has one of the weirder careers out there: when he's healthy he's...not all that great. When he's not healthy he's darned good in the limited time. (except for 2017, when he basically didn't play) he's had exactly 1 year where he made over 20 starts and was above average. I don't understand his career, but it's hard to think he's a guy you can count on for...anything. Pomeranz...I guess he might have a bounceback year, but he looks awfully hittable, walks too many guys. Doesn't look like someone to push Kyle Gibson for the #2 slot on the staff, more like someone to fight with Odorizzi/Gonsalves, Romero, or Stewart for the 4/5 slot. Pass.